No change in my stance. Even if we flatten the curve enough to get past this first wave, odds are high that <1% of Americans will be known to have been infected from the virus test, meaning a next wave could happen easily if we relaxed social distancing significantly, and allowing large crowds will be the last thing approved. Many think the virus will be seasonal, slowing down some soon (especially with all our interventions), but coming back in the fall with a vengeance.
The one caveat to this is we have no idea right now how many were infected but didn't get sick and have immunity from the antibodies they produced in fighting the virus - we know about half of those who tested positive in some settings (like the Diamond Princess) never developed symptoms, so it's possible there are many more who have antibodies but don't know it. This would mean many would likely be immune and it would also mean any future outbreaks would be smaller, with less "targets" walking around. The antibody tests are now available as of today, I think - we need to do a controlled study on a representative population subset in our area to really see how many are in this situation.
So, I still say that unless we have a proven treatment in place by the end of July at the latest, football will be cancelled. The odds on having a reliable, high success rate drug treatment from the many old repurposed drugs being tested, like HCQ, remdesivir and other antivirals, is very low. The best short range option (it's starting now), many think, is the old school plasmapheresis approach I started a thread on today, where antibodies from recovered, infected patients are collected in blood-plasma and infused into sick patients to give them the antibodies to fight the disease off. This approach could also be used as a preventative for high risk populations like the elderly, the immunocompromised, and health care workers. Not sure it's scalable to everyone assuming it works.
Beyond that, the engineered antibody approach is probably the most promising and could be ready by mid/late summer from what I've heard. It uses transgenic mice to produce antibodies to a similar virus and then these antibodies can be "grown" in cell bioreactors and the best ones tested in humans to see if they protect against the virus for those who are infected and sick (this was used for Ebola); it could also be a short-term (months?) preventative for anyone.
And finally, there are vaccines, which will likely take at least 11-12 months to be ready for the public (could be emergency use though before then).
