Palm has Rutgers out. I am not a fan of his analysis. Notwithstanding,in my somewhat educated opinion a Purdue win is more important than a Maryland win and answers the one outstanding question. Can Rutgers beat a team not named Nebraska on the road. Beat just Maryland and lose in Big Tourney and it is sweat it out time on the bubble.
Road wins matter
- Thread starter RU72
- Start date
With most of the games going against us this weekend, I think we need 2 wins now and I agree that the Purdue game is at least as important as the Maryland game. A Maryland win followed by two losses and I think we are out.
Actually most of the games didnt go against RU...cincy and uri played their way out. Only UCLA played their way in. Everything else just scrambled
However going to your points...winning matters. This is time to win your way in..not sputter
However going to your points...winning matters. This is time to win your way in..not sputter
Does 17-1 at home matter? The importance of the road record is diminished somewhat by not playing a balanced home-and-home Big Ten schedule. It matters more if your league plays a totally balanced schedule.
Just winning any damn game matters right now.
Are you suggesting we play a lot less out of conference road games than other teams?
When I look at the Big Ten standings, the number of Away and Neutral games is not vastly dissimilar to other teams. Agreed the results are dismal. But you can not blindly dismiss our home court results. The home results are notable (way beyond standard results), some would say outstanding, and have to offset the dismal road results in a substantive way. We’ve beaten some seriously good teams.
https://bigten.org/confstandings.aspx/2019-20/mbb?path=mbball
https://bigten.org/confstandings.aspx/2019-20/mbb?path=mbball
Michigan State 6-4/3-2
Maryland 5-5/3-0
Ohio State 4-6/1-1
Michigan 4-6/4-0
Penn State 5-5/2-1
Wisconsin 5-6/0-3
Iowa 4-6/2-2
Illinois 6-5/0-1
you dont think those are a big difference, you see how the better schools in the conference obviously have seperated themselves from RU..why? because they win on the road.
Purdue 3-8/1-2
Indiana 2-8/2-0
Minnesota 2-9/1-1
Northwestern 2-9/1-1
Nebraska 0-10/2-1
Rutgers 1-8/0-2
even in the last grouping RU is the worst combined road/neutral, they also played the least road/neutral of any school...just 11
Maryland 5-5/3-0
Ohio State 4-6/1-1
Michigan 4-6/4-0
Penn State 5-5/2-1
Wisconsin 5-6/0-3
Iowa 4-6/2-2
Illinois 6-5/0-1
you dont think those are a big difference, you see how the better schools in the conference obviously have seperated themselves from RU..why? because they win on the road.
Purdue 3-8/1-2
Indiana 2-8/2-0
Minnesota 2-9/1-1
Northwestern 2-9/1-1
Nebraska 0-10/2-1
Rutgers 1-8/0-2
even in the last grouping RU is the worst combined road/neutral, they also played the least road/neutral of any school...just 11
I mean this is literally the only possible way to separate yourself from a team that is 17-1 at home.
The teams with the most home losses, usually doesn't make the NCAAs....tired of the nonsense and having to apologize for having a real home court advantage for the 1st time in years.
Pencil in 1 loss a year at most for the elite teams in every conference. Fans grasping for straws because it's the last item to hold onto. Maryland Wisconsin, MSU have 1 home loss in conference. RU currently sits with this group as of today. If it finishes with this group after Maryland, it will have been earned, despite fans believing otherwise or believing that beating Maryland is a given or somehow expected.
We can discuss how poorly RU performs on the road with the overwhelming number of blowout losses and lopsided games....at some point, RU has to be competitive with league teams on the road, right....?? (Sarcasm meter is running)....
There are no perfect bubble teams folks, they all have warts somewhere...otherwise they wouldn't be bubble teams....!!
Pencil in 1 loss a year at most for the elite teams in every conference. Fans grasping for straws because it's the last item to hold onto. Maryland Wisconsin, MSU have 1 home loss in conference. RU currently sits with this group as of today. If it finishes with this group after Maryland, it will have been earned, despite fans believing otherwise or believing that beating Maryland is a given or somehow expected.
We can discuss how poorly RU performs on the road with the overwhelming number of blowout losses and lopsided games....at some point, RU has to be competitive with league teams on the road, right....?? (Sarcasm meter is running)....
There are no perfect bubble teams folks, they all have warts somewhere...otherwise they wouldn't be bubble teams....!!
fans are not grasping for straws....its a NCAA selection committee criteria to look at road games, its not the end all be all that determines things but its one factor
You do realize that RU's profile is falling not just because of road wins but because they have only added one quality win in 8 games..thats an issue too...so good at home then they should have beat Michigan at home to build cushion or gasp on a neutral court in a game in nyc. Fact is other schools have caught up to RU profile wise by winning.
So here RU has at least 3 more chances....Maryland, at Purdue and in B10 tourney are you actually advocating them getting in at 17-14. RU needs to win games period. Its up to them to do it but its they not some boogeyman or fans that put them near the bubble as among the last 6 or 7 schools to get in right now
You do realize that RU's profile is falling not just because of road wins but because they have only added one quality win in 8 games..thats an issue too...so good at home then they should have beat Michigan at home to build cushion or gasp on a neutral court in a game in nyc. Fact is other schools have caught up to RU profile wise by winning.
So here RU has at least 3 more chances....Maryland, at Purdue and in B10 tourney are you actually advocating them getting in at 17-14. RU needs to win games period. Its up to them to do it but its they not some boogeyman or fans that put them near the bubble as among the last 6 or 7 schools to get in right now
Right, and that doesn’t separate them from us because we are also almost perfect at home. By definition, if a team is better than us by more than 1 game, it has to be through road wins.
You are too emotionally tied into this and are setting an expectation for RU that is different that what the committee says. If road wins was a defined criteria, no expert would have RU in the field. Just accept that beating Maryland clinches the bid and move on. You have said for weeks that road wins are required....what's required involves 7 to 8 criteria, not just 1....play quality teams, win some of them...play quality teams, play well or competitively with a chance to win.
You keep apologizing for teams like West Virginia and Butler, saying they're guaranteed to be in and can lose out with no ramifications because they won a road game or two, 2 to 3 months ago....??
I don't make the rules or say RU doesn't have to win a game to make the NCAAs, obviously they do. But explain to fans how WVU can lose by 12 at home to Oklahoma, fall to under. 500 in their league and say "nothing to worry about"....
Won at Pitt by 15 in 2nd game of season....crowning achievement of course....
Loss at St Johns....by 2...not a good loss by any measure.
Neutral win vs Ohio State (huge but 2 months ago.
Won at Youngstown State by 11.....uh...OK...
Won at Oklahoma State by 14 (wow....!!)
Since then....
Loss at Kansas State by 16....hmm
Loss at Texas Tech by 8.....
Loss at Oklahoma by 10....
Loss at Baylor by 11......
Loss at TCU by 7, loss at Texas by 10, loss at home by 11 to Oklahoma....
Next is at Iowa State and home to Baylor....let me guess....they're a lock with 2 more additional losses, and a potential 6th straight loss in the B12 tournament??? Just because they won a road game 3 months ago, they can drop 6 straight with no repercussions??
At least be somewhat objective....if RU wins another game, they're in...if WVU doesn't, they're also in???
Hawk has gone off the reservation. I wish “all” we needed was a win vs Maryland but it ain’t true.
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body of work...body of work. It does not matter when you win or lose. Butler and WVU built up enough resume cushion earlier in the year that they can sustain alot losses and if WVU keeps losing they may play their way to the first 4 games.
They have stronger base profiles that RU
i do not know how many times i can go over the same issue with this, you refuse to even acknowledge the criteria the NCAA uses. I KEEP SAYING..YOU DO NOT WANT TO LEAVE ANYTHING IN THE HANDS OF THE COMMITTEE..sometimes its road record, sometimes is net, sometimes its sos, sometimes it bad losses, sometimes its not enough quality wins. If you leave a red flag you have no right to complain.
I really cannot understand this back and forth with you for over a month. All the things I was worried about last month and you dismissed are clearly present. RU may get in...I never said they will definitely not get in, I do not talk definites. I do talk reality of criteria and the committee may value road wins...maybe they do not, but sitting here dismissing an actual written criteria is puzzling to me.
Rutgers needs wins PERIOD...they are not WVU or Butler, they do not have a top sos like WVU and they do not have as many quality wins and they certainly do not have any quality road wins like these schools...so its a pretty failing comparison to bring up WVU and Butler
Compare RU to Indiana or NC State or USC or Xavier because those are the schools that RU is battling it out with right now
we "may" just need a win over Maryland but that is not certainty as the road thing will still be an issue.....I certainly dont want to be sweating it out and I am sure Hawk is queuing up the I told you so kind of posts if RU does get picked. The committee can for one team value one criteria and then ignore it for another. I certainly dont want to be in a sweating it out situation.
I am basing this on years of doing this...look at the other bracketologists around the country...RU is either in the last 4 or just outside or in Lunardis case in the last 4 byes. This is not made up stuff. RU has slid down in the past month.
No one is trying to screw Rutgers or judge them differently.
When RU beats Maryland that win will be judged vs what else is going around the bubble, it might be just enough cushion for RU to get selected overcoming the road issue. RU does have some quality wins.
This program just needs to go out and win a game period..just like other schools are doing
and does he keep saying road wins are not a defined criteria. Road record is listed among the criteria to consider...there is no set number and no one every said there was...committee members balance what they feel it is important
yes hawk is off the rails if he continues to say that road record is not a criteria to look at
yes hawk is off the rails if he continues to say that road record is not a criteria to look at
Bac
I hear you with what you are saying ...but I also think that as “lousy “ as our road record is ...we won’t get quite beat up for it as bad as it could be because
1.) 9 of those 11 losses are to teams that will dance.
2.) and a lot of those losses were close.
Our competitiveness will come out in some form if we need to have hairs split to get in...
I’m becoming more confident that one win against Maryland or Purdue not only gets us, but gets us in without a play in game ..
I hear you with what you are saying ...but I also think that as “lousy “ as our road record is ...we won’t get quite beat up for it as bad as it could be because
1.) 9 of those 11 losses are to teams that will dance.
2.) and a lot of those losses were close.
Our competitiveness will come out in some form if we need to have hairs split to get in...
I’m becoming more confident that one win against Maryland or Purdue not only gets us, but gets us in without a play in game ..
Selection Criteria
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.
The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.
Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:
- An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
- Complete box scores and results.
- Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
- Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
- Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
- The quality of wins and losses.
- Road record.
- Player and coach availability.
- Various computer metrics.
I dont disgree with you necessarily. I am disagreeing with Hawk because he continues for a month now to repeatedly push a notion that the road thing isnt an issue and that is about winning home games..no....if RU won at Illinois and lost at home, RU probably is a 9 seed close but not quite a lock
RU has some good things on its resume that are strengths compared to bubble teams but they havent added as much to their metrics lately.
I would be more confident if our non conference road attempts were not 2 losses...you can give RU a pass for in league but not ooc. Also I think the committee needs to see RU just start winning, the losing has brought them closer to the first 4 games. We will only know where the chips fall when we win and then compare the resumes and metrics which are always fluid.
Schools like USC, Stanford, UCLA, Oklahoma, Texas are starting to get some big wins. The overall gap has been cut...RU had a wide lead on all these schools a month ago and now they are dropping while others are rising so here is where we are.
To be fair, Rutgers is 1-0 right now on the road against the bottom 5 BIG teams in the standings. The Nebraska game was the only conference road game against a team that’s not a lock for the tourney.
I’ve thought Maryland would be enough for a bid but losing 2 in a row away from home might feed this Palm concept that the road is the road whether you loses to Fordham or a BIG team. So who knows?
The problem with beating only Purdue would be it would almost certainly eliminate Purdue from the tourney picture. That would mean no more wins over teams in the field. Indiana might not get in either. So that would be - Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin and Illinois (wins over teams in the field). Maybe SFA. One more win over a field team would be way better than not.
I’ve thought Maryland would be enough for a bid but losing 2 in a row away from home might feed this Palm concept that the road is the road whether you loses to Fordham or a BIG team. So who knows?
The problem with beating only Purdue would be it would almost certainly eliminate Purdue from the tourney picture. That would mean no more wins over teams in the field. Indiana might not get in either. So that would be - Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin and Illinois (wins over teams in the field). Maybe SFA. One more win over a field team would be way better than not.
that is a good point....And people need to remember the wins over Purdue and Minnesota lost some luster as those teams skidded out tourney contention...people are counting them as quality wins when at home, they are good wins but because they were at home are not necessarily the impressive quality wins we need.
I like the idea of beating Maryland more than the one road win at fading Purdue.....I think in the latter they will need one in the B10 tourney.
But the reality is RU has had several chances in the past few weeks and has at least 3 more chances coming up...so no one can say they didnt have opportunities to emphatically make their case
But the reality is RU has had several chances in the past few weeks and has at least 3 more chances coming up...so no one can say they didnt have opportunities to emphatically make their case
Beat "just" Maryland, the team in first place in the league and lose to Purdue and the first BTT game and it's hello Dayton IMO
The win/loss road record is included in the NET calculation. Palm is just an idiot. After our last game our NET went UP to 34. Beat Maryland and we are in.
It's a misconception in the tournament for success
1 4 Seed and 3 5 seeds upset 1st round 2018-19 before 1st rd loss
4 Seed Kansas St. Road 7-5 N 4-1
5 Seed Marquette Road 7-4 N 1-2
5 Seed Wisconsin Road 8-5 N 3-2
5 Seed Miss St Road 5-5 N 4-2
12 Seed Oregon beat Wisconson(sweet 16) R 5-7 N 1-1 (4-0 Pac 12 tourny, 2-1 NCAAs)
1 4 Seed and 3 5 seeds upset 1st round 2018-19 before 1st rd loss
4 Seed Kansas St. Road 7-5 N 4-1
5 Seed Marquette Road 7-4 N 1-2
5 Seed Wisconsin Road 8-5 N 3-2
5 Seed Miss St Road 5-5 N 4-2
12 Seed Oregon beat Wisconson(sweet 16) R 5-7 N 1-1 (4-0 Pac 12 tourny, 2-1 NCAAs)
Road record is a specfic criteria listed by ncaa and is listed on the team sheet
our net should be good enough
Selection Criteria
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its first year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.
The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.
Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:
- An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
- Complete box scores and results.
- Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
- Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
- Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
- The quality of wins and losses.
- Road record.
- Player and coach availability.
- Various computer metrics.
- An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings. This should not hurt us as all the losses are under 10 points
- Complete box scores and results. This should not hurt us as all the losses are under 10 points
- Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents. This can work against us with other B10 teams that we split the season series with. The B10 tourney may have impact here.
- Imbalanced conference schedules and results. This may affect us but we played PSU, ILL, and Mich twice. Ohio St, MSU, and Iowa are ohnly once.
- Overall and nonconference strength of schedule. This should be decent for RU
- The quality of wins and losses. from the graphic we see from the BTN, only 1 bad loss
- Road record. we are screwed RU Screw
- Player and coach availability. may have impact since we did win games when starters from other teams were out
- Various computer metrics. not sure what they look at
we certainly have strengths to the resume that can overcome the awful road mark. The overall NET is one but its not an end all be all as schools with strong NETS or rpis in the past have been left off for schools with ranking in the 60s or 70s..last year for example.
Rutgers needs to give the committee an excuse to put them in. that is it. They need to split with Maryland or Purdue. The committee can not keep its integrity and put a team in he NCAA tournament who just lost 5 in a row and 8 of their last 10. this gets compounded by the fact that Rutgers ins on the front of the jersey. They dont get the benefit of the doubt.