Did a lot of research, comparing, and subtracting the NCAA tournament results from the overall last year's records and NET in 2018-19 and wrote down how each team got in and resume, and how they seeded every team. I definitely see patterns in teams that got eliminated early, who won games in the tourny, and what teams to avoid picking.
Final 4 Teams were 29-3 Virginia Q1(12-3)/2(4-0) 16-3, 26-6 Texas Tech Q1(8-5)/2(8-0) 16-5, 28-6 MSU Q1(13-2)/2(6-3) 19-5, and 25-9 Auburn Q1(5-7)/2(12-2) 17-9
Elite 8 Teams 29-5 Duke Q1(11-4)/2(6-1) 17-5, 30-3 Gonzaga Q1(4-3)/2(6-0) 10-3, 27-6 Kentucky Q1(10-5)/2(6-1) 16-6, and 23-9 Purdue Q1(7-7)/2(9-1) 16-8.
The teams that had most Q1/Q2 and win% in those Q1/2 advanced in those games- Va 19(.842), TTU 21(.762), MSU 24(.792), Auburn 26(.653). Duke 22(.772), Gonzaga 13(.769), Kentucky 22(.727), Purdue 24(.667)
Sweet 16- UNC 22(16-6), Tenn 19(14-5), Michigan 25(19-6), Houston 20(17-3), LSU 22(16-6), FSU 20(14-6), Va. Tech 19(11-8), and 12 Oregon 16(7-9) beat 13 UC-Irvine 5(2-3), said more about the weaknesses of the 4(Kansas St 14-8) and 5 Seed(Wisconsin 15-10) they beat.
Seed 1-6 in each bracket each had 22 wins and a combine 11 Q1/2 wins, except Buffalo 30-3 got an auto bid with a combined 9 games(7-2) Q1/2. Seeds 7-11 are the mish-mosh of teams of auto bids, at-large and first four 11 seeds.
Only 1 7 Seed won(1-4)
W Auto 26-4 Wofford 13(Q1 3-4/Q2 6-0) 9-4, 0
At-large 20-13 Louisville 21(Q1 4-11/Q2 5-1) 9-12, 1Q3 loss
At large 29-4 Nevada 10(Q1 1-1/Q2 7-1) 8-2, 2Q3 losses
Auto 28-6 Cincinnati 18(Q1 5-4/Q2 8-1) 13-5, 1Q4 loss
All 4 8 seeds lost(0-4)
At-large 25-7 VCU 9(Q1 2-2/Q2 3-2) 5-4, 3 Q3 losses
At-large 20-13 Syracuse 17(Q1 3-9/Q2 3-2) 6-11, 2 Q3 losses
At-Large 20-12 Ole Miss 19(Q1 4-10/Q2 3-2) 7-12
Auto 27-6 Utah St. 10(Q1 3-2/Q2 2-3) 5-5, 1 Q3 loss
9 seeds(4-4)
At-large 26-8 Washington 17(Q1 2-4/Q2 8-3) 10-7, 1 Q3 loss
At-large 23-8 UCF 15(Q1 2-5/Q2 6-2) 8-7, 1 Q3 loss
At-large 19-13 Baylor 22(Q1 4-9, Q2 8-1) 12-10, 1Q3, 2Q4 loss
At-large 19-13 Oklahoma 22(Q1 4-10/Q2 6-2) 10-12, Q3 9-1, 0 Q4
10 seeds(3-4)
L At-large 20-13 Seton Hall 25(Q1 7-8, Q2 7-3) 14-11, 2 Q3 losses
At-large 22-11 Iowa 21(Q1 4-10/Q2 7-0) 11-10, 1 Q3 loss
At-large 21-13 Minnesota 24(Q1 5-10/Q2 7-2) 12-12, 1 Q3 loss
At-large 19-15 Florida 21(Q1 4-12/Q2 4-1) 8-13, 2 Q3 losses
11 seeds(3-6)
W At large 19-14 Ohio St 22(Q1 4-10/Q2 5-3) 9-13, 1 Q3 loss
L Auto 22-11 St. Mary's 14(Q1 2-6/Q2 3-3) 5-9,2 Q3 loss
Play-in W A-l 26-6 Belmont 8(Q1 2-2/Q2 3-1) 5-3, 2 Q3 loss
Play-in L A-l 23-9 Temple 16(Q1 2-6/Q2 6-2) 8-8, 1 Q3 loss
Play-in W A-l 22-10 Ariz St. 17(Q1 3-3/Q2 8-3) 11-6, 2 Q3, 2 Q4 losses
Play-in L A-l 21-12 St. John's 20(Q1 5-7/Q2 5-3) 10-10, 2 Q3 losses
Only other upsets were
12 Seed 25-6 Liberty 6(3-3) over 5 23-10 Miss St 22(12-10)
12 Seed 25-4 Murray St. 6(2-4) over 5 24-8 Marquette 24(16-8)
That was more Ja Morant than anything.
There is my bracket analysis from 2018-19, hopefully everyone does better in their brackets and maybe predicting the field from this. We will see when all the games are played.
The biggest question marks aren't seed 9-11, but Louisville, VCU, Syracuse and Ole Miss to me, how they were seeded so high. Besides the 20 wins mark and 25 for VCU. Shows why they lost round of 64.
Louisville Q1 wins vs MSU(F4), @SHU(64), @UNC(16), @Va. Tech(16)
VCU Q1 wins @Texas, @Dayton 2 NIT teams???
Syracuse Q1 @OSU(32), @Duke(E8), vs Louisville(64)
Ole Miss Q1 N Baylor(32), vs Auburn(F4), Miss St.(64), @Auburn(F4)
VCU NET 34 the biggest mystery how they got in.
