The latest bracket projection for Joe Lunardi (ESPN) has Rutgers as a 10 seed, while Jerry Palm (CBS) has Rutgers in the 'First 4 Out'. One of them must be way off base, that is a pretty wide discrepancy.
ESPN- 10 seed / CBS- First 4 Out
- Thread starter WPUknight
- Start date
I think our resume is pretty unprescendted at the moment. As of now most of the metrics (NET, Kenpom) seem to say we should be in but the 1 road win could be a major barrier.
I don’t think you can definitively say what our magic number is right now. There’s really no blueprint for how this type of resume will be treated.
I don’t think you can definitively say what our magic number is right now. There’s really no blueprint for how this type of resume will be treated.
I think we need to win two more games to secure a bid.
last 4 byes line now according to Lunardi...next to last 10 seed
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Last Four Byes
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next Four Out
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Last Four Byes
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next Four Out
Palm has us out because he is historical driven and that no school with a road mark like that has got in. Still he has an Arkansas team in that has beaten basically no one.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Last 4 In
TEAM NET
ARKANSAS(18-10) 41
RICHMOND(21-7) 52
RHODE ISLAND(20-7) 40
PROVIDENCE(16-12) 50
First 4 Out
TEAM NET
MISS. STATE(18-10) 54
CINCINNATI(18-9) 53
RUTGERS(18-11) 34
UCLA(18-11) 76
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Last 4 In
TEAM NET
ARKANSAS(18-10) 41
RICHMOND(21-7) 52
RHODE ISLAND(20-7) 40
PROVIDENCE(16-12) 50
First 4 Out
TEAM NET
MISS. STATE(18-10) 54
CINCINNATI(18-9) 53
RUTGERS(18-11) 34
UCLA(18-11) 76
Purdue is out and Rutgers is in with his analysis. But if RU loses to Purdue the 2 can be flipped. What would work against Rutgers is that it is a late season loss vs the win against Purdue a few weeks ago. Late season games seem to carry more weight.
I think Palm’s 3 win road metric thing is a made up barrier. While I’m sure it’s statistically accurate, I also doubt there’s a historical bubble team he can point to that missed the tournament specifically because of this and not because of either a) too many overall losses, b) too many bad losses or c) not enough good wins period.
Think about it - RU would have 12 losses away from home if it were to beat Maryland and lose the next two. In the history of the game, how many teams with a road profile like this also went into Selection Sunday with a resume that did not contain collection of really bad losses AND with wins over 6+ teams (would be 7 if SFA gets in) getting put up on the bracket board during the deliberation. My guess would be none.
Think about it - RU would have 12 losses away from home if it were to beat Maryland and lose the next two. In the history of the game, how many teams with a road profile like this also went into Selection Sunday with a resume that did not contain collection of really bad losses AND with wins over 6+ teams (would be 7 if SFA gets in) getting put up on the bracket board during the deliberation. My guess would be none.
Palm saying Rutgers specifically needs 2 wins away from home in order to get in is crazy. If they were to beat Maryland and then win a conference tournament game, they're in, period.
Palm does not have Purdue in the field. In fact, Purdue is not even on his bubble
late season games carry no more weight than early season games.
no i have not
Palm is very good at what he does. He will wait until RU wins a road game to move them back into the field
Palm is entitled to write whatever he wants, he's on CBS sportsline as their college basketball expert. Unfortunately for folks, there has to be a difference of opinion, you cannot have everyone with the same conclusion, even though that's what the metrics say....it would be boring to see that and there's no penalty for being wrong, if you are Palm....I don't think anyone in Arkansas believes they're in the NCAA's, because 1 person out of 100 says so....
That's why they got rid of RPI in the metrics and Jerry Palm always uses that for his brackets. RPI rewards a 1 pt road win against 7-20 team over a 20 pt win against 20-7 team at home. It's just dumb. Old RPI has us at 57, giving Palm a reason for us out.
St. Bonaventure has a NET of 113, RPI of 80.
Michigan St. NET 13, RPI 39
Minnesota NET 46 RPI 106
Illinois NET 36, RPI 51
Iowa NET 29, RPI 41
Purdue NET 35, RPI 90
Michigan NET 25, RPI 50
OSU NET 16, RPI 38
Big 10 is down so much because they win too many Home games. It's dumb and this is the metrics they used to use.
Gonzaga NET 3 RPI 15
Furman NET 67 RPI 36
Bowling Green NET 137 RPI 52
Bowling Green 21-7 (19-7, 2 non D1 wins) would have a chance at an at large if we used old metrics, because they are 8-6 on the Road/Neutral. Think that over and a couple of bubbles bursts with Bannon and Waters.
St. Bonaventure has a NET of 113, RPI of 80.
Michigan St. NET 13, RPI 39
Minnesota NET 46 RPI 106
Illinois NET 36, RPI 51
Iowa NET 29, RPI 41
Purdue NET 35, RPI 90
Michigan NET 25, RPI 50
OSU NET 16, RPI 38
Big 10 is down so much because they win too many Home games. It's dumb and this is the metrics they used to use.
Gonzaga NET 3 RPI 15
Furman NET 67 RPI 36
Bowling Green NET 137 RPI 52
Bowling Green 21-7 (19-7, 2 non D1 wins) would have a chance at an at large if we used old metrics, because they are 8-6 on the Road/Neutral. Think that over and a couple of bubbles bursts with Bannon and Waters.
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Palm has Arkansas, Rhode Island, and Richmond in the field
Bac has Rutgers, North Carolina State and Cincinnati in the field. Cincy because tecnically they are in first place in the AAC so Jerry should have them in as projected win as Lunardi does.
I do not get Arkansas at all. I realize they lost Isiah Joe for a while and lost 5 games. They are weak sauce in wins....It is ludicrous actually. They have a win at Indiana...that is it folks...nothing else Alabama and So Carolina are not tourney teams. They did beat lower schools projected to make the ncaa in Montana and North Texas. Their sos is great at 25/11 ooc and I think that and because they have no bad losses Jerry overvalues them. Also SEC is CBS property I believe. Just like Lunardi favors the ACC/Big 12, this is what you see with Jerry. I was watching the recap show on CBS Sports network the other night and all of them were in universal praise of Arkansas getting in and I am still left scratching my head...why?
Lunardi and I only differ on Stanford and URI. I have Stanford in, he has URI in
Bac has Rutgers, North Carolina State and Cincinnati in the field. Cincy because tecnically they are in first place in the AAC so Jerry should have them in as projected win as Lunardi does.
I do not get Arkansas at all. I realize they lost Isiah Joe for a while and lost 5 games. They are weak sauce in wins....It is ludicrous actually. They have a win at Indiana...that is it folks...nothing else Alabama and So Carolina are not tourney teams. They did beat lower schools projected to make the ncaa in Montana and North Texas. Their sos is great at 25/11 ooc and I think that and because they have no bad losses Jerry overvalues them. Also SEC is CBS property I believe. Just like Lunardi favors the ACC/Big 12, this is what you see with Jerry. I was watching the recap show on CBS Sports network the other night and all of them were in universal praise of Arkansas getting in and I am still left scratching my head...why?
Lunardi and I only differ on Stanford and URI. I have Stanford in, he has URI in
because we still have good wins and we have more wins vs teams in the field of anyone near the bubble except PC and Indy who have the same as us..some have just 1 or 2.
its not made up, it is true...however he also used to champion the 14 loss barrier until schools like Vandy and Florida and I think Michigan State put that one to rest. He also like to rally around the 2 games above 500 thing..not since Georgia in 2001 at 16-14 with the hardest schedule in the history of college hoops, thats why he does not even have his alma mater Purdue on the bubble right now
If the committee looks close they will find that this season has been like no other in the Big10 especially on the road and if they watch the games and look at the margins they will find that RU is actually competitive on the road. The quesiton becomes how much eye test and how much has the committee viewed RU before Selection Sunday. They almost certainly will be watching vs Maryland and especially at Purdue. There is a human element to the process even though they will point to metrics and criteria. The criteria is there just to justify why they put a team in or out.
been thinking about this. Almost all of our road games are Q1. Can every other team that has 3 road wins and on bubble or just in say that. I mean we didn’t get to play NW on the road. We had only two Q3 road games. These other conf have oodles and oodles of bad teams to beat in the road. We have none to play.
I think the committee should look at all the very close road losses and seriously consider how competitive we were game after game on the road. If we had the road record that we have with a bunch of blow out losses on the road where we never look competitive then I would say it is more fair to knock the road record. It shouldn't be the end all be all if you have a bunch if quality wins and and high enough NET. It should impact seeding not making it or not.
the problem is the committee may say okay we can give you a pass on conference, now lets look at OOC, what did you do? Oh you lost at middling Pitt, okay what else..oh you lost a neutral site game to a plus 100 Q3 St Bonnies....those games ****** us...a win in just one of them could tamp down any questions
How about because we have beaten Seton Hall, Stephen F. Austin(who only has 3 losses and beat Duke), Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota, etc and have lost most road games by 6 points or less?
Best of Luck,
Groz
We need at least one more win two more would be awesome. Cant afford being a bubble team with the way basketball has been going this expect a few Conference Tourney upsets pushing those last four in to possibly one ot two teams
They're still losses. There's no category for "close losses." If the lack of wins on the road wasn't so egregious, then we're not even talking about evaluation of these close losses. Devil's advocate is they could also look at the home wins against Northwestern and Nebraska as close wins against inferior competition.
Sporting News agrees with Lunardi
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...nament-field-of-68/1xu79y0mldwmj1wd9zhl0s275g
Look if RU loses out - no bid. Will be beyond disappointing but nothing to argue.
Right now, Palm literally just swapped RI in for RU out because RI won at Fordham by a point and RU lost at Penn State by a point. That’s objectively ridiculous. A home win over Providence (Palm’s last team in the field). That Rhode Island’s entire win resume against teams in Palm’s at large field. Double digit loss collection - Brown, LSU, Maryland, Dayton. Away from home, RI is 0-4 against teams in the tourney picture. 3 of the 4 of these teams blew them out.
Right now, Palm literally just swapped RI in for RU out because RI won at Fordham by a point and RU lost at Penn State by a point. That’s objectively ridiculous. A home win over Providence (Palm’s last team in the field). That Rhode Island’s entire win resume against teams in Palm’s at large field. Double digit loss collection - Brown, LSU, Maryland, Dayton. Away from home, RI is 0-4 against teams in the tourney picture. 3 of the 4 of these teams blew them out.
The A10 isnt getting 3 in anyway, you can lock that one up. Richmond and URI will most likely meet in the A10 semis...of course there is a possibility that one gets picked off even before that. Richmond not only beat URI but has a better win in Wisconsin and they both have a Q3 loss but I would say that URI is worse losing to Brown. Richmond lost to Radford but they are projected to win their conference
There is no objective reason for URI to be in the field other than they were in the field for January to mid Feb. They have Dayton still to come so a chance to play their way in..but if they dont win that game they are in a situation where its either them or Richmond
There is no objective reason for URI to be in the field other than they were in the field for January to mid Feb. They have Dayton still to come so a chance to play their way in..but if they dont win that game they are in a situation where its either them or Richmond
Doesn’t the NET take into account the margin of victory and conversely the margin of loss, especially against good teams?
I would think close road losses to good teams (of which we have many) would matter in the metrics to determine how deserving a team is for a bid.
I would think close road losses to good teams (of which we have many) would matter in the metrics to determine how deserving a team is for a bid.
Both are actually accounted for in the NET in terms of metrics point, but the two are not the same thing in terms of evaluating resumes. Just as you point out, there’s no such thing as a good loss in the committees eyes there’s also no such thing as a bad win. On the flip side, bad losses are absolutely factored into the equation almost as much as good wins. Getting blown out is considered a bad loss. Your right - it wouldn’t have much mattered if we lost at the buzzer or rolled into an 8 point loss getting only within remote striking distance. But it absolutely would’ve mattered if RU packed it in after half one.
it does, that is why our NET is 34 with a 17-11 record as opposed to ASU who is 19-9 but got blown out by 40 to St Marys and 38 to Arizona so their NET lags at 45
The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2020
Bracket Matrix has us as the second highest 10 seed and still on 90 of 94 brackets. Still need another win
Bracket Matrix has us as the second highest 10 seed and still on 90 of 94 brackets. Still need another win
The last team to make the NCAAs with less than 3 wins away from home was Illinois in like 1997. That’s what’s scaring some people, unless we beat Purdue at Mackey it will be hard to get over this metric
Last at large schools who are seeded in....they are the schools above the last 4 who are sent to Dayton to play in First 4
Jerry uses NET rating to break ties, so he’s currently giving the auto-bid from the AAC to Houston.