BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/25

[fluoxetine]

I changed my mind. I agree with the drop to 10 seed.

 

[dconifer0]

I still see Rutgers making the tournament and winning their first game...

 

[bac2therac]

I changed my mind. I agree with the drop to 10 seed.

its still close between Virginia, Xavier, Rutgers for that last 9 and the two 10s..I have No Iowa and Cincy as 10..of course Cincy could get knocked out with a loss to Houston

 

[bac2therac]

Georgetown and Minny were the two biggest ones and we got the results we wanted there.

The rest of them not so much.

I dont think any of the bubbles really helped their case because it was just avoiding losses...yet many of them were close

Florida was probably in anyway.

I see nothing special about Arkansas but Palm somehow has them in, Miss St, SC also nothing on resume. It would be travesty to lose a bid those these schools

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I'm thinking home to Temple in front of 4k

 

[Shell21]

We need to root for Indiana against Purdue right ?

 

[G- RUnit]

Do we have to start worrying about TV friendly Notre Dame?

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

We need to root for Indiana against Purdue right ?

For RU purposes. Yes

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Do we have to start worrying about TV friendly Notre Dame?

ND has a ways to go.

 

[King of S]

Do we have to start worrying about TV friendly Notre Dame?

Yes, unfortunately

 

[bac2therac]

Do we have to start worrying about TV friendly Notre Dame?

3-9 in q1 and 2 combined...14 of 17 wins to Q3 and 4

Best win Clemson

No

 

[bac2therac]

We need to root for Indiana against Purdue right ?

Absolutely

 

[bac2therac]

NET remains 34

 

[Goku]

do the following scenarios get Rutgers in?

1st Scenario
1-1 against Purdue and Maryland
1-1 in the BTT

2nd Scenario
1-1 against Purdue and Maryland
0-1 in the BTT

 

[Shell21]

Bac,
Obviously there are variables, but do you think a win in either of the final 2 gets us in, even if we lose in big ten tourney (assuming its not nebraska or northwestern). If Purdue loses to Indiana(or @Iowa) tonight and we win one more that will keep us out of the 11 or 12 spot.

 

[bac2therac]

It doesn't solve the road issue per se but beating a projected 2 seed and conference winner carries alot of weight. I think its enough but we still sweat but also a win over MD could lead to a confidence build a win in Big 10 tourney. Yes if Purdue loses 2 or loses 1 and RU wins 1, Ru finishes no worse than 10

 

[bac2therac]

do the following scenarios get Rutgers in?

1st Scenario
1-1 against Purdue and Maryland
1-1 in the BTT

2nd Scenario
1-1 against Purdue and Maryland
0-1 in the BTT

First scenerio definitely

Second one maybe 75/25 if Maryland

60/40 if Purdue..and remember that win helps our road issue and is Q1 one but Purdue will be a 500 team...unless that game Purdue is 16-14 playing for their lives. In that case RU gets more credit

 

[bethlehemfan]

I suspect 10-10 we’re in no matter how it comes but would be nervous as heck. Would think 10-10 with a win in big cements it.

 

[fluoxetine]

do the following scenarios get Rutgers in?

1st Scenario
1-1 against Purdue and Maryland
1-1 in the BTT

2nd Scenario
1-1 against Purdue and Maryland
0-1 in the BTT

vs Maryland - win
at Purdue - loss
Ohio St - win
Maryland - loss

8 seed - 95% chance of bid

vs Maryland - win
at Purdue - loss
Ohio St - loss

9 seed - 85% chance of bid

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Purdue could lose out or win out....i don't see any scenario where another Q1 doesn't complete the process whether MD or Purdue. If it's 1-2 the rest of the way (1-1 regular season, etc) if they're all Q1 games competitive, it's impossible to see the ratings fall.

 

[G- RUnit]

I can see NCAA saying RU you had a good year but only one road win so we are going to make you win at Dayton.

 

[blockm2]

I can see NCAA saying RU you had a good year but only one road win so we are going to make you win at Dayton.

that would be a distinct possibility

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

vs Maryland - win
at Purdue - loss
Ohio St - win
Maryland - loss

8 seed - 95% chance of bid

vs Maryland - win
at Purdue - loss
Ohio St - loss

9 seed - 85% chance of bid

The seeding 8 through 11 is irrelevant to the results. The committee will align the matchups that fit what they want to potentially see in a 1st or 2nd round matchup. It is not as straightforward as "last four projected in, are 2 teams in the play-in Dayton game. I can see for various reasons, being a 11 or 12 seed as a better opportunity to advance in the tournament beyond 1 game, vs a 8 or 9 seed and having to play a Top seed.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

I think we root for Purdue to win against Indiana. Purdue has @Iowa 13-1 at home, loss in November, 8-0 B1G and I think we have a good shot to win at Purdue. There is no way Purdue goes 3-0, Purdue is an awful road team 3-8, road wins over NW 6-20, Ohio 12-14 and Indiana, lost to Nebraska.

We went up in Ken Pom and didn't move in NET.

 

[fluoxetine]

The seeding 8 through 11 is irrelevant to the results. The committee will align the matchups that fit what they want to potentially see in a 1st or 2nd round matchup. It is not as straightforward as "last four projected in, are 2 teams in the play-in Dayton game. I can see for various reasons, being a 11 or 12 seed as a better opportunity to advance in the tournament beyond 1 game, vs a 8 or 9 seed and having to play a Top seed.

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying the bold but I do agree that being a 10 or 11 seed could be better than 8 or 9. NOT if you are in the play-in game though, that it obviously a disaster for your chances compared to any non playin seed.

 

[blockm2]

The seeding 8 through 11 is irrelevant to the results. The committee will align the matchups that fit what they want to potentially see in a 1st or 2nd round matchup. It is not as straightforward as "last four projected in, are 2 teams in the play-in Dayton game. I can see for various reasons, being a 11 or 12 seed as a better opportunity to advance in the tournament beyond 1 game, vs a 8 or 9 seed and having to play a Top seed.

the committee automatically puts the last 4 at large berths into the play in games in Dayton.

 

[bac2therac]

Purdue could lose out or win out....i don't see any scenario where another Q1 doesn't complete the process whether MD or Purdue. If it's 1-2 the rest of the way (1-1 regular season, etc) if they're all Q1 games competitive, it's impossible to see the ratings fall.

The overall net wont matter. We would be this years NC State

 

[aplus29]

I’ll take our chances in Dayton...we are a weird matchup for any team, we’d win and then possibly upset a 6 or 5

 

[bac2therac]

I think we root for Purdue to win against Indiana. Purdue has @Iowa 13-1 at home, loss in November, 8-0 B1G and I think we have a good shot to win at Purdue. There is no way Purdue goes 3-0, Purdue is an awful road team 3-8, road wins over NW 6-20, Ohio 12-14 and Indiana, lost to Nebraska.

We went up in Ken Pom and didn't move in NET.

Absolutely not..why would we want Purdue to win

Indiana is in the tourney 90%

 

[bac2therac]

If RU gets in with just one win including B10 tourney we are almost assuredly headed to the first 4 in Dayton

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

We will win at least 1 B1G tourney games, as long as Courtney Green isn't reffing it.

 

[bac2therac]

FIRST 4 BYES: XAVIER, UTAH STATE, USC, STANFORD

LAST 4 IN: RHODE ISLAND, OKLAHOMA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: WICHITA STATE, RICHMOND, UCLA, MISSISSIPPI STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SOUTH CAROLINA, ARKANSAS, GEORGETOWN, TEXAS


Rutgers a 10 seed one spot ahead of Xavier

 

[bac2therac]

Huge games tonight

Arizona State-UCLA...Bruins really need
Arizona-USC...Trojans need
Temple at Wichita State...Shockers cannot slip up
Indiana-Purdue...must win for Boilermakers
St Mary's-Santa Clara....dangerous game for Gaels

 

[bac2therac]

All the bubbles won..Indiana not hurt much by losing on the road

Is the Pac 12 quality or are we realizing its just a bunch of mediocrity? Colorado losing to Cal. Arizona NET is absurdly wrong compared to how they actually play. UCLA creeps closer but they are not getting 7 bids

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

Indiana did drop 4 which is surprising a bit, line was -6.5 lost by 8.
They can't do that against Illinois, they drop in the 60s it's danger zone, especially in conference tournaments top 50 become Q1 wins, and top 100 become Q2 wins.

 

[bac2therac]

Update heading into the weekend

1: KANSAS, BAYLOR, GONZAGA , SAN DIEGO STATE

2: MARYLAND, FLORIDA STATE, DAYTON, VILLANOVA

3: SETON HALL, DUKE, CREIGHTON, KENTUCKY

4: LOUISVILLE, OREGON, MICHIGAN STATE, AUBURN

5: PENN STATE, OHIO STATE, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN

6: WEST VIRGINIA, BYU, COLORADO, ARIZONA

7: IOWA, ILLINOIS, BUTLER, MARQUETTE

8: ST MARY'S, TEXAS TECH, FLORIDA, HOUSTON

9: LSU, ARIZONA STATE, VIRGINIA, INDIANA

10: EAST TENNESSEE STATE, CINCINNATI, USC, RUTGERS

11: NORTHERN IOWA, XAVIER, UTAH STATE, STANFORD

12: PROVIDENCE/WICHITA STATE, NORTH CAROLINA STATE/OKLAHOMA, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, LIBERTY

13: AKRON, YALE, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS, NEW MEXICO STATE

14: BOWLING GREEN, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, HOFSTRA, UC IRVINE

15: COLGATE, MONTANA, LITTLE ROCK, WRIGHT STATE

16: RADFORD, AUSTIN PEAY, SAINT FRANCIS/PRAIRIE VIEW, SIENA/NORTH CAROLINA A&T



FIRST 4 BYES: RUTGERS, XAVIER, UTAH STATE, STANFORD

LAST 4 IN: WICHITA STATE, OKLAHOMA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: UCLA, RHODE ISLAND, RICHMOND, MISSISSIPPI STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SOUTH CAROLINA, ARKANSAS, PURDUE, TEXAS

 

[RU MAN]

Update heading into the weekend

1: KANSAS, BAYLOR, GONZAGA , SAN DIEGO STATE

2: MARYLAND, FLORIDA STATE, DAYTON, VILLANOVA

3: SETON HALL, DUKE, CREIGHTON, KENTUCKY

4: LOUISVILLE, OREGON, MICHIGAN STATE, AUBURN

5: PENN STATE, OHIO STATE, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN

6: WEST VIRGINIA, BYU, COLORADO, ARIZONA

7: IOWA, ILLINOIS, BUTLER, MARQUETTE

8: ST MARY'S, TEXAS TECH, FLORIDA, HOUSTON

9: LSU, ARIZONA STATE, VIRGINIA, INDIANA

10: EAST TENNESSEE STATE, CINCINNATI, USC, RUTGERS

11: NORTHERN IOWA, XAVIER, UTAH STATE, STANFORD

12: PROVIDENCE/WICHITA STATE, NORTH CAROLINA STATE/OKLAHOMA, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, LIBERTY

13: AKRON, YALE, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS, NEW MEXICO STATE

14: BOWLING GREEN, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, HOFSTRA, UC IRVINE

15: COLGATE, MONTANA, LITTLE ROCK, WRIGHT STATE

16: RADFORD, AUSTIN PEAY, SAINT FRANCIS/PRAIRIE VIEW, SIENA/NORTH CAROLINA A&T



FIRST 4 BYES: RUTGERS, XAVIER, UTAH STATE, STANFORD

LAST 4 IN: WICHITA STATE, OKLAHOMA, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: UCLA, RHODE ISLAND, RICHMOND, MISSISSIPPI STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SOUTH CAROLINA, ARKANSAS, PURDUE, TEXAS

Thanks. Did you write this before UCLA beat Arizona State last night?

 

[bac2therac]

Thanks. Did you write this before UCLA beat Arizona State last night?

Everything is updated to include last nights results...moved UCLA up a couple of notches with that win. If they win at ASU they will be in at least temporarily

 

[RUJMM78]

BAC =I don't see the NCAA Committee giving four B1G teams a five seed..They have too much latitude to move teams up or down seedings to satisfy members from different conferences,

 

[bac2therac]

just what I have at this current time, its likely to change. I think there are 7 schools Big 10 schools all fighting for seeds from 4 to 7