BIG Conspiracy Theory

[Big boy stan]

I am not usually a guy that goes looking for aliens but the home/road record in the BIG makes me wonder if there is not something guiding this a bit. Refereeing in CBB has always had a home team bent to it but in my very subjective review, the BIG games this year seem to have gone to a new level. Watching a few ACC, SEC and BIG games this week the difference between home and away team touch fouls seem to be much bigger in the BIG.

So here is my question. Could the BIG so want to have 12 teams in the dance that they have instructed referees to "help" the home team win. I think with the exception of the 2-4 bottom dwellers, if everyone just wins there home games, they are at least a high bubble team. Keep in mind that the BIG will get about $300K for every game that a conference team plays in. That $3.6M just for getting 12 get in. Plus more teams = more chances to win = more $$$.

My foil hat is standing by.

P.S. Dont take this as a why RU lost thread as I think we have got more then our share of calls at the RAC.

 

[Scarlet83]

I am not usually a guy that goes looking for aliens but the home/road record in the BIG makes me wonder if there is not something guiding this a bit. Refereeing in CBB has always had a home team bent to it but in my very subjective review, the BIG games this year seem to have gone to a new level. Watching a few ACC, SEC and BIG games this week the difference between home and away team touch fouls seem to be much bigger in the BIG.

So here is my question. Could the BIG so want to have 12 teams in the dance that they have instructed referees to "help" the home team win. I think with the exception of the 2-4 bottom dwellers, if everyone just wins there home games, they are at least a high bubble team. Keep in mind that the BIG will get about $300K for every game that a conference team plays in. That $3.6M just for getting 12 get in. Plus more teams = more chances to win = more $$$.

My foil hat is standing by.

P.S. Dont take this as a why RU lost thread as I think we have got more then our share of calls at the RAC.

I may be naive, but I really don’t think this is happening. The minute a sporting event is thought of as being fixed or intentionally manipulated in any way, that sport will lose credibility, loyalty and their following. There is way too much at risk to play games like this, IMO.

 

[biazza38]

I don’t think this at all, but you can tell there were times where the refs tried to balance out some of the foul calls when they called something that had zero impact on the play against Michigan.
The officiating has been terrible across the board. I don’t know what it is. We just have to deal with it. There was a stretch in the Minnesota game where you really wonder if the refs were even watching the same game as everyone in the stands. That game should have never gone under single digits.
Don’t even get me started about the “hook and hold” call against Tez in the Indiana game when he was falling after taking a forearm to the face

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

I am not usually a guy that goes looking for aliens but the home/road record in the BIG makes me wonder if there is not something guiding this a bit. Refereeing in CBB has always had a home team bent to it but in my very subjective review, the BIG games this year seem to have gone to a new level. Watching a few ACC, SEC and BIG games this week the difference between home and away team touch fouls seem to be much bigger in the BIG.

So here is my question. Could the BIG so want to have 12 teams in the dance that they have instructed referees to "help" the home team win. I think with the exception of the 2-4 bottom dwellers, if everyone just wins there home games, they are at least a high bubble team. Keep in mind that the BIG will get about $300K for every game that a conference team plays in. That $3.6M just for getting 12 get in. Plus more teams = more chances to win = more $$$.

My foil hat is standing by.

P.S. Dont take this as a why RU lost thread as I think we have got more then our share of calls at the RAC.

Not a chance in hell...those referees would then be making incorrect calls which would hurt their chances of getting NCAA assignments. Not to mention all of the people that could be losing high paying jobs over that type of nonsense.

The B1G has even been passed this week and is no longer the conference with the highest % of home teams winning.

 

[bac2therac]

there is no conspiracy against Rutgers

we just played a quasi home game in NYC that was a Michigan home game....and to make matters worse the Wolverines have to come back here to the RAC in a couple of weeks.

 

[richthedentist]

OP said not a theory against Rutgers but a home bias in the BIG. And I agree with him 100% I have watched a lot of BIG games this year and the discrepancy in foul shots and calls for the home teams is just alarming and this is all across the board. This should not be but it is and to me it’s a huge problem and I don’t understand it these games should be referreed fairly and they have not been it’s a shame

 

[BOCA93]

There absolutely is home cooking with the calls. RU has benefited at the RAC just as much as any other team. Just a Few games ago Howard was complaining about the ridiculous foul imbalance when UM played at Iowa. It is what it is.

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

OP said not a theory against Rutgers but a home bias in the BIG. And I agree with him 100% I have watched a lot of BIG games this year and the discrepancy in foul shots and calls for the home teams is just alarming and this is all across the board. This should not be but it is and to me it’s a huge problem and I don’t understand it these games should be referreed fairly and they have not been it’s a shame

Big difference between a “conspiracy”, and human nature kicking in when it’s a 50/50 call and you’ve got 15k fans ready to explode if the call goes one way, or continuing to give it to you making you wonder if you did miss a call.

 

[bac2therac]

OP said not a theory against Rutgers but a home bias in the BIG. And I agree with him 100% I have watched a lot of BIG games this year and the discrepancy in foul shots and calls for the home teams is just alarming and this is all across the board. This should not be but it is and to me it’s a huge problem and I don’t understand it these games should be referreed fairly and they have not been it’s a shame

but thats true for all leagues...it was like that in the Big East, but unlike in the Big East they are not calling fouls every 2 minutes. Love that they generally let them play

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Big Ten refs have been trash for years, often favoring home teams and - tin foil hat time - sometimes seemingly protecting teams that are on the Bubble, teams that could be a top seed for the conference or players that are making national news. Obviously, it’s as subconscious as it is intentional, and it’s always subtle ... but it’s been evident for years. I’m not sure over time it’s helped any one program more than another (holding success constant), but it’s quite annoying. I have already come to peace with a loss at Iowa today, not because I think they’re a better team than we are but because I suspect Garza will get some leniency down low while Kofi and Giorgi get called for more; that SMALL thing would cut our win chances in half.

I’m not sure it’s any worse this year than any other year, but the parity of the league (and therefore the lopsided home records) is causing more to notice it ... whereas in the past, people mostly just had an insular take and thought of their team as always getting screwed, haha.

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Not buying it. The calls went our way vs. Purdue. We played a stupid game yesterday. End of story.

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

but thats true for all leagues...it was like that in the Big East, but unlike in the Big East they are not calling fouls every 2 minutes. Love that they generally let them play

Note that thru conference games thus far, the B1G is 29th of 32 conferences in FT attempts/FG attempts. Plus, there are plenty of refs crossing over between Big East and Big Ten games.

 

[Big boy stan]

Not 100% confinced that this does not happen (did I mention the millions of dollars at stake) but I will tone it down a bit.

Most of the post agree that the refereeing favors the home team and has forever. Is this not something that could have been worked on at a league level. If it is so obvious to everyone that home teams get more and different types of calls, why would the league not do something to educate refs in calling evenly? Refs have as much power in affecting the outcome of a basketball game as in any other sport. In other words, maybe they are not actively promoting a home team bias but happy its there and prefer not to mess with it. (and...did I mention the millions of dollars???)

And once again, this is NOT a commentary on the RU Michigan game.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

Here are the FTs and PFs in each home and road.

Home ------ PF ----- opponent
Wisc. 9-13 19 ----- 11-16 17
PSU 22-29 13 ----- 11-13 23
Indiana 9-18 14 ----- 10-12 17
Minnesota 10-17 12 ----- 9-15 15
Nebraska 11-17 14 ----- 9-13 17
Purdue 25-36 15 ----- 7-10 25
Totals (6) 86-140 87 ----- 57-79 114 (+27)

Road -------- PF ----- opponent
MSU 13-19 23 ----- 22-27 16
Nebraska 6-12 16 ----- 14-21 11
Illinois 3-8 17 ----- 16-19 12
Iowa 15-21 21 ------ 18-25 16
Michigan 3-5 21 ------ 16-24 12
Totals (5) 40-65 98 ----- 86-116 67 (-31)

You can see the differences in calls. I'm sure you go through each B1G team and see similar stat differences home/road. You can also see if you can play through the calls, you can win games but the margin of error is much slimmer on the road though.

 

[RW90]

Note that thru conference games thus far, the B1G is 29th of 32 conferences in FT attempts/FG attempts. Plus, there are plenty of refs crossing over between Big East and Big Ten games.

Interesting, thanks. My biggest gripe the past couple games have been the hacking calls we haven't received in the offensive paint. Just good to see the stats show perhaps we're not alone.

 

[wheezer]

I think the home team gets the better calls and it is not intentional.....possibly the fans affect the refs and the refs don't even realize it

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

Here are the FTs and PFs in each home and road.

Home ------ PF ----- opponent
Wisc. 9-13 19 ----- 11-16 17
PSU 22-29 13 ----- 11-13 23
Indiana 9-18 14 ----- 10-12 17
Minnesota 10-17 12 ----- 9-15 15
Nebraska 11-17 14 ----- 9-13 17
Purdue 25-36 15 ----- 7-10 25
Totals (6) 86-140 87 ----- 57-79 114 (+27)

Road -------- PF ----- opponent
MSU 13-19 23 ----- 22-27 16
Nebraska 6-12 16 ----- 14-21 11
Illinois 3-8 17 ----- 16-19 12
Iowa 15-21 21 ------ 18-25 16
Michigan 3-5 21 ------ 16-24 12
Totals (5) 40-65 98 ----- 86-116 67 (-31)

You can see the differences in calls. I'm sure you go through each B1G team and see similar stat differences home/road. You can also see if you can play through the calls, you can win games but the margin of error is much slimmer on the road though.

Keep in mind that this is also partially influenced by wins/losses. If Rutgers is winning, they’re more likely to have some late game FTs as the opponent extends the game (and vice versa).

 

[G- RUnit]

I think the home team gets the better calls and it is not intentional.....possibly the fans affect the refs and the refs don't even realize it

How do you explain MSG? Ridiculous officiating.

 

[wheezer]

How do you explain MSG? Ridiculous officiating.

I was not trying to explain that game, just games on home courts. I don’t have an answer for the MSG game

 

[RU848789]

I am not usually a guy that goes looking for aliens but the home/road record in the BIG makes me wonder if there is not something guiding this a bit. Refereeing in CBB has always had a home team bent to it but in my very subjective review, the BIG games this year seem to have gone to a new level. Watching a few ACC, SEC and BIG games this week the difference between home and away team touch fouls seem to be much bigger in the BIG.

So here is my question. Could the BIG so want to have 12 teams in the dance that they have instructed referees to "help" the home team win. I think with the exception of the 2-4 bottom dwellers, if everyone just wins there home games, they are at least a high bubble team. Keep in mind that the BIG will get about $300K for every game that a conference team plays in. That $3.6M just for getting 12 get in. Plus more teams = more chances to win = more $$$.

My foil hat is standing by.

P.S. Dont take this as a why RU lost thread as I think we have got more then our share of calls at the RAC.

Tin foil hat earned. Although having said that, there is a known unconscious bias for home teams in refereeing in many major sports (soccer, hoops, football, etc.) that involve judgment calls by refs. I'm sure this has now been lessened by things like replay/VAR, which can correct the most egregious officiating errors (in/out of bounds, possession, offsides in soccer, etc.), but usually not "penalty/foul" errors that are completely judgment calls.

https://www.dispatch.com/article/20091124/SPORTS/311249675

 

[Knights 1212]

I am dumbfounded about our MSG game vs Michigan. Michigan was the home team but RU fans made up about two thirds of the crowd. Michigan got 24 foul shots and RU only got 5. Myles Johnson who only makes about 40 % of his foul shots and was 2-4. Montez Mathis was 1-1. Our other 7 guys never got to the line. Those were Yeboah, Harper, Baker, Young, Mulcahy, Carter and McConnell. That is hard to believe. My son and I were right near the basket and trust me many times our players received a lot of contact and never once was a foul called.

 

[Big boy stan]

Regardless of whether it is intentional or not, home bias could be eliminated or at least reduced. If the NCAA or the BIG wanted to stop this well know road bias, they could. Reviewing road vs home calls and educating refs on the difference is the first step. Evaluating them on how evenly the refs call their games and rewarding them should follow. Perhaps even introduce a reverse bias for road teams until things get evened out.

None of the above is difficult for them to do. Every year there are points of emphasis in all sports to modify how refs call games and increase fairness and competition. This would be no different. I stand by the idea they are OK with a home bias.

 

[Knightmoves]

I may be naive, but I really don’t think this is happening. The minute a sporting event is thought of as being fixed or intentionally manipulated in any way, that sport will lose credibility, loyalty and their following. There is way too much at risk to play games like this, IMO.

Major League Baseball? 2017 and 2018 WS winners intentionally manipulated games for their entire seasons.

Not sure why MLB fans are not outraged about this.

Losing bettors should certainly be outraged.

 

[FrankZ_RU93]

Can’t stand basketball officiating - period. The Dallas/Miami farce in 2006 put me over the edge (and had no horse in the race), and no one will convince me Joey Crawford didn’t steal a ring for the Lakers over my Celtics in 2010 G7. Basically just assume some sham is coming.

Sadly, some of this has become entirely too predictable (like predicting to the near second when they would finally call a 3rd on Teske the other day).

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

Regardless of whether it is intentional or not, home bias could be eliminated or at least reduced. If the NCAA or the BIG wanted to stop this well know road bias, they could. Reviewing road vs home calls and educating refs on the difference is the first step. Evaluating them on how evenly the refs call their games and rewarding them should follow. Perhaps even introduce a reverse bias for road teams until things get evened out.

None of the above is difficult for them to do. Every year there are points of emphasis in all sports to modify how refs call games and increase fairness and competition. This would be no different. I stand by the idea they are OK with a home bias.

https://kenpom.com/blog/how-to-measure-site-specific-home-court-advantage-part-two/

This will show you that the home/away foul discrepancy has been steadily dropping for 15+ years