I know people are frustrated/disappointed with the outcome tonight and it was a "winnable" game that would have put RU on the precipice of being a lock for the tournament. However, the fantastic news is this team has given itself a fair amount of room for margin of error. All RU needs to do is go 10-10 and go 3-6 the rest of the way. If RU can't pick up 3 more wins in the regular season then we don't deserve to go to the tourney. In fact 2 more regular season wins + 1 in the BET may do it too because the bubble is one of the weakest in recent memory. We are good and not worried about our tourney chances just slightly diminishes the room for error going forward but everything is still well within reach.
Magic Number is Still 3
- Thread starter gordel1
- Start date
I don’t think 19-12 (10-10) is enough, especially because that would mean 3-7 down the stretch. Also if our lone road win is @Nebr, it will be noticed as a big negative on our resume. 20 wins is a must.
19-12 is a lock for the tournament regardless of how it happens....fans are not aware of where other conference teams are and how many non Q1 opponents are on other teams schedules around CBB, outside of the B1G.
The schedule could have been Ohio State at home and at Northwestern and then fans would be saying "well the 2 road wins were against 13th and 14th in the conference. The home games are really challenging and not sure why fans are under this impression that Illinois Maryland and Michigan at home aren't quality potential wins. I kinda think those 3 games are just more difficult as Penn State, Minnesota Indiana.
Those home games are not easy at all. If you started the season and asked if RU fans would sign up for a split of Illinois, Purdue, Michigan and Maryland, and that you would get the remaining home games, you're insane to say you wouldn't take that.
The schedule could have been Ohio State at home and at Northwestern and then fans would be saying "well the 2 road wins were against 13th and 14th in the conference. The home games are really challenging and not sure why fans are under this impression that Illinois Maryland and Michigan at home aren't quality potential wins. I kinda think those 3 games are just more difficult as Penn State, Minnesota Indiana.
Those home games are not easy at all. If you started the season and asked if RU fans would sign up for a split of Illinois, Purdue, Michigan and Maryland, and that you would get the remaining home games, you're insane to say you wouldn't take that.
No way...19-12 is squarely bubble. Lose first round of the B1G tourney and say hello to NIT
Can’t see how we’re going to win 3 of our final 10 games, have 1 road conference win, be .500 in conference, have 19 wins overall, and consider ourselves a “lock”. If we get in with 19 wins (which means 19-13 after a B1G tourney loss), can’t see any better than a 9-seed which would be remarkable.
Nothing is a lock at 19-12 which is actually 18-12 (caldwell doesn't count) because RU has enough warts to take things out of their own hands. It would include a 1-10 road record and if they lost in first round B10 tourney 18-13 is trouble. I would put 18-13 at 35-65 to make it. 19-13 with one tourney conference win is probably put us at 65-35 to get in
Again it hard to know because everyone has 8-9 games to play and schools start to make runs down the stretch. Give me the pen to sign on for 10-6 right now going 3-2 in next 5
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You have 2 ranked opponents coming into the RAC....Illinois and Maryland....add a 3rd in Michigan who, in theory could get another of their best players back in Livers. I could argue they'd be ranked if he didn't miss time.
How many ranked opponents have played at RAC this year...2....Seton Hall and Penn State. Illinois and Maryland are certainly as good or better than both teams.
The number is Quad 1 victories. That is the metric that the NCAA bases things on....road vs away is an outdated method and not a metric that is used.
The formula is a road win against a top 75 to 100 team is the equal as a home win against a Top 50 team. I know fans want road wins as if it solves things, you absolutely are putting the cart before the horse.
If you beat 4 ranked opponents as Quad 1 wins, it is impossible by the metrics to not make the NCAAs....the league doesn't have a lot of road wins in conference outside of teams playing at NWestern and Nebraska. To think RU is the only B1G team that isn't going to have a road win against one of the Top 10-12 teams in the conference is wrong. The league is defending home court at a rate that exceeds any measure, in any year, in recent memory.....it's not 2014, 2016, 2018....this season is being measured on this season's results, not 3 to 5 years ago.
No one writes in absolutes that are unprovable quite like “Hawk.”
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ROAD WINS ARE A CRITERIA
From a few days ago RU was the only top 65 NET team to not have multiple road/neutral wins
A school that is 17-1 at home and 1-12 on the road has an enormous red flag on its resume
I'm not going to argue with this as if you believe beating Illinois Maryland and Michigan at home is a foregone conclusion. Knock yourself as if those games being won, wouldn't be huge Ws....you will the very 1st one posting about some phantom narrative that doesn't exist.
So we are on the same page, RU (based on what you believe) could lose by 10-15 @ Maryland on Tuesday night, but would be comfortably expected to beat them at the RAC....??
Illinois who has already won at Purdue Wisconsin and Michigan, is also a foregone conclusion that RU beats them at the RAC??
I honestly don't know where fans get these ideas but in the ACC, SEC and Pac 12, there aren't 8 Q1 games left on anyone else's schedule around Power 5 leagues. If there are, please show them or line the schools up outside of the B1G who have this schedule....I'd love to see less than 50% chance with wins over Seton Hall, Penn State, Illinois, Michigan and Maryland in your formula as 65% out.....at least be credible, that's 4 ranked teams and a 5th that has teams on their resume as 1 or 2 seeds on their schedule on Michigan (Gonzaga/Oregon).
The notion that road wins won't impact decisions on NCAA bids is ridiculous .With so many teams bunched together with comparable won/loss records there needs to be a means of choosing .In fact I wouldn't be surprised that some teams with less home wins and more road wins than other teams might sneak in for a NCAA bid based on the quality of the wins.Bottom line Rutgers with the Michigan loss has very little margin for error.
3 more wins mean Northwestern..Illinois and Michigan....the latter two could be both Q1s or both Q2s or one of each. Losing all your road game isnt a good look
Michigan State... Maryland .Iowa...Wisconsin..Illinois..Penn State...Michigan. Ohio State have better resumes currently than RU. Road wins are a part of that. NCAA Pecking order wise i would put RU 9th in the Big 10 currently
Michigan State... Maryland .Iowa...Wisconsin..Illinois..Penn State...Michigan. Ohio State have better resumes currently than RU. Road wins are a part of that. NCAA Pecking order wise i would put RU 9th in the Big 10 currently
The plusses for RU are wins over teams in the field
SETON HALL
WISCONSIN
PENN STATE
STEPHEN F AUSTIN (as projected conference winner)
INDIANA
with Purdue and Minnesota on the bubble
2 more wins say Illinois and Michigan add to this list
These are very solid numbers along with the overall sos. So yes Hawk we agree actually in many ways. Its the road thing you just want to dismiss. How much a negative the road mark is the question?
I always say you want to take it out of the committees hands so they can't point to a reason why you were not invited
SETON HALL
WISCONSIN
PENN STATE
STEPHEN F AUSTIN (as projected conference winner)
INDIANA
with Purdue and Minnesota on the bubble
2 more wins say Illinois and Michigan add to this list
These are very solid numbers along with the overall sos. So yes Hawk we agree actually in many ways. Its the road thing you just want to dismiss. How much a negative the road mark is the question?
I always say you want to take it out of the committees hands so they can't point to a reason why you were not invited
19-12 (really 18-12 as BAC pointed out) is not a lock for the tourney...especially considering that would mean we had a pretty bad stretch to end the year.
You can write all the paragraphs you want...but we are not a lock. Need 4 more regular season wins to be a lock.
Not that I’m an expert at picking the NCAA field or anything but it’s all about wins away from the RAC at this point it seems. I am VERY concerned right now. To think we can go 1 for the season on the road and just pick up 3 more home win and get a bid is absurd to me. Now, if we could somehow upset Maryland on Tuesday then I’d feel that we would be hard to leave out but seems like a tall order.
It is weak but nothing is a lock short of 21 wins
I don't know how any fan can make a absolute determination right now on the number of wins needed for a NCAA selection.There are games to be played in the B1G that will juggle league rankings.There will also be teams with 10 or more losses that will require analysis as to comparative strengths and weaknesses. What is the magic number for B1G NCAA selections?The higher the number the better the odds for Rutgers.
Of course many things can happen like multiple upsets in other conferences shrinking bids but if you look at almost all the bracketology projections have 500 teams Purdue and Minnesota from the league that tells me how strong the metrics are in the league. Lunardi himself on Twitter said RU is one quality road win from being safely in. Rutgers is in right now comfortably.
No body writes in complain or ***** mode quite like "Shill" Hey, how are you feeling about the Caldwell game?
Remember that how you finish is not a criteria. The committee treats games in November with the same weight as games in February/March. Trae Young’s Oklahoma team finished 2-8 in their last 10, 4-11 in their last 15, and even avoided Dayton.
Road wins could be a concern, but how you guys do in your last “x” number of games is meaningless.
I’d still love Rutgers’ chances at 10-10 in conference as long as you avoided the nightmare scenario of dropping to the 11 and losing on Wednesday to Neb/NW (which isn’t happening).
Road wins could be a concern, but how you guys do in your last “x” number of games is meaningless.
I’d still love Rutgers’ chances at 10-10 in conference as long as you avoided the nightmare scenario of dropping to the 11 and losing on Wednesday to Neb/NW (which isn’t happening).
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Instead of commenting find the teams with the schedule of gauntlet of games in the other conferences outside of the B1G.
I don't have the time to micromanage the 4 other Power leagues for you, but it's easy to give the lazy man take vs doing to actual work.
It's easy actually....scan the other leagues and place the non Top 25 ranked programs vs RU...tell me who plays 8 Q1 games the rest of the year.....you have the answers for all of us...inform us so you support your answers.
oh i agree but RU does not have that quality road win yet and its huge so until they get it......
Can you count....4 home games are left
Northwestern Illinois Michigan and Maryland....people still arguing against me, and don't even have the right numbers in front of them....and quick to say I'm wrong.
If this was a "normal" season and 12 teams out of 14 weren't still in contention from the B1G, then people saying 19 isn't enough would be correct.
You have to evaluate and find other teams from other leagues better than the resumes of the teams in the B1G. I know it sux for fans holding out hope to talk about OOC schedule, Caldwell and other non items...the reality is that THIS YEAR, is a different animal. I don't see how that is lost with fans.
To say RU isn't in, means you have to provide teams that are in....tell us what teams are in...if your answer is nothing, then how can you comment...??
Well, I'll revise my statement somewhat.
Torvik's website has a "teamcast" thing where you can run hypothetical scenarios. If we win Northwestern, Michigan, and Illinois, and lose every other game, including a first round loss to Penn St in the Big Ten Tournament, it has us as a 11 seed (not first four) with a 66.2% chance of a bid.
So not a lock. But likely to get in.
Give us one more win (I took the home game against Maryland), and we are up to a 9 seed with 86.4% chance of a bid.
So I would say we do need 20 (including Caldwell) to be a lock, but 19 is still likely in.
Torvik's website has a "teamcast" thing where you can run hypothetical scenarios. If we win Northwestern, Michigan, and Illinois, and lose every other game, including a first round loss to Penn St in the Big Ten Tournament, it has us as a 11 seed (not first four) with a 66.2% chance of a bid.
So not a lock. But likely to get in.
Give us one more win (I took the home game against Maryland), and we are up to a 9 seed with 86.4% chance of a bid.
So I would say we do need 20 (including Caldwell) to be a lock, but 19 is still likely in.
Northwestern, @PSU, and 1 of @wisc, @OSU, home Mich and home MD? And If we get 2 of those we end up 20 wins? We’ll be just fine. But no more hiccups allowed
HOW ON EARTH COULD YOU BE LOCKING SCHOOLS IN OR OUT WITH 8-9 GAMES TO PLAY
RU at 18-12 is in a vulnerable spot because they take things out of their hands, they may make or they make not but that is clearly a record that puts them on the bubble and with a 1-11 road mark is a red flag. RU's profile is good right now, but its not incredible. The value of wins over Purdue, Minny, and possibly Indiana could get diminished as we head forward. We dont know yet.
Too many variables at this point, I will do a deep dive this week but calling schools locks and calling other major schools not locks is foolish. For example if I talked to you yesterday you would have not considered Xavier losers of 5 of 6 and headed to another loss at SHU as a NCAA tourney team but guess what, one win elevated their profile so now they have positioned themselves as a NCAA team and still with work to do.
As of now Rutgers is in, if the season ended today they are probably an 8 seed, 7 at best. But the season does not end today. And the season doesnt end for a host of bubble schools like Tulsa who knocked off Wichita State yesterday or BYU who took down St Marys. And some of these ACC, SEC, Pac 12 schools have 8-9 games down the stretch to possibly play their way in.
RU at 18-12 is in a vulnerable spot because they take things out of their hands, they may make or they make not but that is clearly a record that puts them on the bubble and with a 1-11 road mark is a red flag. RU's profile is good right now, but its not incredible. The value of wins over Purdue, Minny, and possibly Indiana could get diminished as we head forward. We dont know yet.
Too many variables at this point, I will do a deep dive this week but calling schools locks and calling other major schools not locks is foolish. For example if I talked to you yesterday you would have not considered Xavier losers of 5 of 6 and headed to another loss at SHU as a NCAA tourney team but guess what, one win elevated their profile so now they have positioned themselves as a NCAA team and still with work to do.
As of now Rutgers is in, if the season ended today they are probably an 8 seed, 7 at best. But the season does not end today. And the season doesnt end for a host of bubble schools like Tulsa who knocked off Wichita State yesterday or BYU who took down St Marys. And some of these ACC, SEC, Pac 12 schools have 8-9 games down the stretch to possibly play their way in.
beat Northwestern
beat Illinois
beat Michigan
win one of those road games
and we are in very very good shape. That is your easiest path
Yes I can count. I actually have an accounting degree thank you very much.
You said 19 wins is a lock. I said we need 4 more wins...which would be 20 wins and 1 more win than the 3 you are saying we need to be a lock. Do you even read what you write before posting???
I don’t need to name the 40 other teams who could get in over us at this point. There’s way too much basketball to be played...and this has been a weird year...especially in the BIG10.
Nothing is a LOCK this early in February so stop spreading propaganda.
its a definite bubble if you lose that first round Big 10 tourney while others are winning from the bubble.....18-13 with a 1-12 road mark is not how I want to be watching the television screen
Is that whoner still crying about the 2009 Football schedule lol. I must have him on ignore and am grateful for that decision though I don’t remember doing it. I thought he just stopped posting or changed names.