“Loser’s out.” Remember that in pickup games? It’s why we have a chance. If they make a shot against us, which isn’t easy, we get to take the ball out, on our own possession.
The question is, can we stop them from scoring on more possessions than they stop us?
Can we keep them off the foul line?
If we get off to a quick lead and shut them down defensively, will they get tight? Can we take the crowd out of it early?
I think the spread makes sense from a betting perspective, but with our defense if we make shots, all bets are off.