Interesting tweet regarding bracketology

RU516

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This tweet by Lunardi is very very interesting to me.
We need to pick up quality wins / road wins. There is no magic number of conference wins that gets us in (I see alot of people saying we need 9, 10 ,11 etc.) Holding serve at home is not going to get it done. I do not think Penn state will be Q1. I do not think that 2 Q1 wins will be enough (big win by Wisconsin tonight, they are rolling, as is SHU). However, every remaining game away from the rac will be a Q1 opportunity.

What I am getting at is that it is not the end of the world if we drop a hard fought game to say Indiana, Purdue, or Illinois at home. In my opinion making the most of our Q1 games will decide whether we dance this year.
 

bac2therac

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true they are not...see Nebby 13-5 a couple years back, although they had a lack of major wins that did that in.

I do agree with you . Indiana is not a must win. It is a must go at least 1-1 this week though, 0-2 really is a disaster and put us in a hole that I just do not think we can get out of given whats to come. I have RU winning tomorrow but i have a nagging feeling about tomorrow and I hope I am wrong.

would it be more beneficial to lose to Indiana and then win at Iowa, rather than beat Indiana and lose to Iowa....YES
 

Local Shill

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If we win all 8 remaining home games, we are 100% in. I think this is true even if we managed to lose all the remaining road/neutral games.

In reality this scenario is very unlikely anyway.

Not sure about that. Beating Northwestern and Nebraska at home won't move the needle much. Need at least one more road win. It'll be tough to get in with a 1-9 road record (I'm not counting our two neutral site games, one of which we've already lost).
 

Mr_Twister

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The College Basketball Gawds have always been unkind to Rutgers and their fans. All the talk of postseason play is setting us up for a hard landing. All I’m saying is Go Rutgers at this point. Too many folks here jumping the gun.
 

LeapinLou

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The College Basketball Gawds have always been unkind to Rutgers and their fans. All the talk of postseason play is setting us up for a hard landing. All I’m saying is Go Rutgers at this point. Too many folks here jumping the gun.
I'm definitely having a hard time taking it one game at a time. I want to fast forward and see how this movie turns out.
 
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ScarletDave

Heisman
Oct 7, 2010
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It’s more enjoyable to watch each game and look at every opponent with a chance to win, and celebrate the win rather than obsessing over a single point in time and wishing away the season just trying to take wins “to the bank” and lamenting every loss.
But that’s just me . Enjoy the ride, 1 game week at a time
 

RUJMM78

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Winning now at home matters because the odds of winning on the road are slim .Parity might help Rutgers because all league teams are having great difficulty winning on the road.I foresee 6-8 teams being bunched together with comparable records and it will be interesting how the NCAA Committee chooses among the teams.The excitement among Rutgers fans are high and defeating Indiana and Minnesota will only enhance the enthusiasm while also improving the rankings in the B1G and other post season rankings.
 

NewJerseyHawk

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I still don't understand why this continues to surface as of it's some fact check.

This year's ACC is the B1G 2 years ago with Nebraska...it was not as good of a league as normal so, Lunardi is correct that league wins technically are not the measurement.

What is the measurement is Q1 and Q2 wins and there are 15 games left and at least one in the B1G tournament. 14 out of 16 remaining games fall into this category.

What also actually matters that I keep reminding fans is limiting the amount of times that a team gets blown out matters. RU, fortunately has not had one and as long as the road games are competitive, RU will be in strong position for an NCAA bid.

So 1-9 on the road is 100% acceptable if in 9 of the 10 games, you are an underdog. There is no rule that says winning a road game ever exceeds losing a home game.

A) if you give a home game away, you enhance the resume of that team in a head to head scenario. So winning at Iowa is not better than RU losing any home game.

B) There is no way to know what road win will matter more by the end of the season, until the end of the season gets here.

RU already has a leg up on Purdue and Iowa by defeating Nebraska by a bundle of points while both teams didn't. As much as fans don't want to acknowledge it, Nebraska on the road was avoiding the potential bad loss, and it's as important to avoid the bad conference loss vs trying to overcome it with a road conference win as an underdog.

If RU wins tonight, it doesn't have a return trip to Bloomington to deal with, which makes the next 2 home games as important as any road win.

A) Avoid bad loss on road (mission accomplished)

B) stay competitive on road games (TBD, but Illinois was an ideal situation, chance to steal a win in a competitive situation).

C) win home games as often as possible, especially in the B1G.
 
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bac2therac

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Winning at Iowa and losing to Indiana is better than losing to Iowa and beating Indiana

It just is..why are you arguing this

It gives another q1 win as opposed to q2 and gives a quality road win

1-11 on road is a major red flag. Ive been doing this for years. It would be giving the committee a reason to leave a team out

Also not sure why you are bring up favorites and underdogs..that has nothing to do with selection...except that beating better teams builds your resume which means you need to win games you werent suppose to. RU has o e of those...SHU...it needs one on the road
 

G- RUnit

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IMO there are Interesting factors this year so far. The away records in the B1G, the depth of the B!G, the depth of the Big East, the weakness of the Pac12 and most importantly, the weakness of the ACC. Will Cuse really not make the tourney? If UVA loses more? No UNC? That's three bids that were usually automatics.
 

fluoxetine

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Not sure about that. Beating Northwestern and Nebraska at home won't move the needle much. Need at least one more road win. It'll be tough to get in with a 1-9 road record (I'm not counting our two neutral site games, one of which we've already lost).

Nah, at 20-12 we get in with any mix of home/road/neutral wins. 90% chance.

IMO there are Interesting factors this year so far. The away records in the B1G, the depth of the B!G, the depth of the Big East, the weakness of the Pac12 and most importantly, the weakness of the ACC. Will Cuse really not make the tourney? If UVA loses more? No UNC? That's three bids that were usually automatics.

Syracuse has very little chance of making the tourney. Virginia probably misses it too. UNC has ~no chance.
 

NewJerseyHawk

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Winning at Iowa and losing to Indiana is better than losing to Iowa and beating Indiana

It just is..why are you arguing this

It gives another q1 win as opposed to q2 and gives a quality road win

1-11 on road is a major red flag. Ive been doing this for years. It would be giving the committee a reason to leave a team out

Also not sure why you are bring up favorites and underdogs..that has nothing to do with selection...except that beating better teams builds your resume which means you need to win games you werent suppose to. RU has o e of those...SHU...it needs one on the road

There is no red flag with road losses unless the team is expected to win.

There is a human element to the selection, it's not punching keys on a keyboard and watching games matters.

Here's where you and I differ, not because of lack of knowledge or anything, it's as if you are looking for the bogeyman around the corner.

A) First it was Eugene's transfer killing the team's chances for a successful season.

B) then it was the notion that RU getting transfers, always results in a dud.....(Jacob Young shattering that notion this year)

C) Then it was the lack of OOC scheduling because you cannot rely on the B1G scheduling, as if the B1G consistently puts out a subpar product every other year....The league has sent 7 or more teams in 8 out of the last 9 seasons.

D) In the one season out of the last 10, you keep referencing Nebraska's OOC and trying to tell fans that RU is somehow in this category....compare the 2 schedules when Nebraska went 13-5 and look at the margin of victory, Q1 opportunities, what were the results in their 13-5 record that have any comparison to anyone else's schedule in the B1G this year.

E) then it was completely no acknowledgement about Yeboah fitting better in this lineup than Eugene, how the sophomores wouldn't somehow get better from last year to this year.....or it was lack of recruiting......or something else thrown on the wall to stick....

I am not an apologist for what is going on, I am very confident and happy with the progress and remain optimistic that we are at a minimum, 1 full season AHEAD of anyone's metrics or schedule as far as where the program is with recruiting, performance, player development, crowd attendance (Another sold out game) and overall momentum.

ALL of these factors result in positive press regarding the program, the coaching staff, perception of the program. To focus on a potential negative, instead of the positive items already achieved, doesn't make sense to me.

And while you don't believe metrics like pointspread don't matter, when a team covers 7 out of 8 or consecutive games in a row, that means it's exceeding someone's expectations on performance, whether it's losing by 12 instead of 15 at Michigan State or crushing the teams that many would have signed up for splits with 1 win and 2 losses with (Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Penn State). There's a reason someone picked RU 12th in the preseason, to act as if we weren't, doesn't make sense to me either.

I am not afraid of failure and embrace the learning curve of playing with expectations of winning now, home and away. I feel confident now that when we take the floor, we are improving, while playing better competition. While ignoring that or referencing what happened 2 or 3 years ago seems to be the trend, my point of view is as long as RU plays strong at home and respectable on the road, no sane person is going to look at say "well, they didn't go to Purdue, Illinois, MSU and Maryland and win, therefore, let's knock them down 3 notches...."

if there were other B1G schools picking up multiple road wins left and right, I would agree with you....until that happens, I think it's foolish to keep harping on it, especially when RU already has a conference road win, under their belts in the win column.
 

bac2therac

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I already did a post on road wins ooc or in league. The only 2 schools that dont have q1 or q2 road wins are Rutgers and Nebraska

In your response you just threw in a whole bunch of things that have nothing to do with the topic of road wins.

The selection committee looks at how you do on the road. I dont know what else to say if you are denying this. Can RU get in at 1-11..maybe...do they do themselves better by being 3-9..absolutely

Being fave or underdogs mean zero. I am looking at all this how the ncaa committee looks at with no bias. There isn't going to be homerism from me when compiling my bracket analysis...which by the way is entirely too soon
 
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I imagine the relative merits of winning at Iowa/losing to Indiana tonight vs. home teams winning both would come to: who are we on the bubble with? If it is Iowa, hard to argue for them over us if we beat them on their court in the only HTH meeting if the resumes are comparable. Likewise, how do you argue for us over Indiana if they beat us 2x and we have similar overall resumes?

For now, I will stick with "beat visitor " and get at least one more B1G road win and we will be in great shape at 12-8. That would be a lot of Q1/Q2 wins and a juicy overall record. Add another win in the conference tournament and lock it up.
 
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Scangg

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There is no red flag with road losses unless the team is expected to win.

There is a human element to the selection, it's not punching keys on a keyboard and watching games matters.

Here's where you and I differ, not because of lack of knowledge or anything, it's as if you are looking for the bogeyman around the corner.

A) First it was Eugene's transfer killing the team's chances for a successful season.

B) then it was the notion that RU getting transfers, always results in a dud.....(Jacob Young shattering that notion this year)

C) Then it was the lack of OOC scheduling because you cannot rely on the B1G scheduling, as if the B1G consistently puts out a subpar product every other year....The league has sent 7 or more teams in 8 out of the last 9 seasons.

D) In the one season out of the last 10, you keep referencing Nebraska's OOC and trying to tell fans that RU is somehow in this category....compare the 2 schedules when Nebraska went 13-5 and look at the margin of victory, Q1 opportunities, what were the results in their 13-5 record that have any comparison to anyone else's schedule in the B1G this year.

E) then it was completely no acknowledgement about Yeboah fitting better in this lineup than Eugene, how the sophomores wouldn't somehow get better from last year to this year.....or it was lack of recruiting......or something else thrown on the wall to stick....

I am not an apologist for what is going on, I am very confident and happy with the progress and remain optimistic that we are at a minimum, 1 full season AHEAD of anyone's metrics or schedule as far as where the program is with recruiting, performance, player development, crowd attendance (Another sold out game) and overall momentum.

ALL of these factors result in positive press regarding the program, the coaching staff, perception of the program. To focus on a potential negative, instead of the positive items already achieved, doesn't make sense to me.

And while you don't believe metrics like pointspread don't matter, when a team covers 7 out of 8 or consecutive games in a row, that means it's exceeding someone's expectations on performance, whether it's losing by 12 instead of 15 at Michigan State or crushing the teams that many would have signed up for splits with 1 win and 2 losses with (Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Penn State). There's a reason someone picked RU 12th in the preseason, to act as if we weren't, doesn't make sense to me either.

I am not afraid of failure and embrace the learning curve of playing with expectations of winning now, home and away. I feel confident now that when we take the floor, we are improving, while playing better competition. While ignoring that or referencing what happened 2 or 3 years ago seems to be the trend, my point of view is as long as RU plays strong at home and respectable on the road, no sane person is going to look at say "well, they didn't go to Purdue, Illinois, MSU and Maryland and win, therefore, let's knock them down 3 notches...."

if there were other B1G schools picking up multiple road wins left and right, I would agree with you....until that happens, I think it's foolish to keep harping on it, especially when RU already has a conference road win, under their belts in the win column.
Pretty much nailed a lot of board "know it all" takes on why Rutgers wouldn't be good this year and the pathetic "goal" of. 500 this season. Some still can't see this is a good team somehow. Hell, we have FIG predicting blow out loss after blow out loss STILL
 

NewJerseyHawk

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Pretty much nailed a lot of board "know it all" takes on why Rutgers wouldn't be good this year and the pathetic "goal" of. 500 this season. Some still can't see this is a good team somehow. Hell, we have FIG predicting blow out loss after blow out loss STILL

Blowouts happen once in awhile..ask Purdue...no one is eliminating teams because of it.
 

biazza38

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You guys are overthinking all of this. The conference will take care of itself. Get 10 wins and we’ll be in the discussion. I don’t want to talk about home wins vs road wins, just win and you’ll be in the discussion. We’re going to have to win some road games regardless. This isn’t meant to dismiss Quad 1 vs quad 2 wins or the net ranking. It’s just that we’re in a situation where the top 12 teams in the conference are all ranked high in the NET. So just win
 
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bac2therac

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I imagine the relative merits of winning at Iowa/losing to Indiana tonight vs. home teams winning both would come to: who are we on the bubble with? If it is Iowa, hard to argue for them over us if we beat them on their court in the only HTH meeting if the resumes are comparable. Likewise, how do you argue for us over Indiana if they beat us 2x and we have similar overall resumes?

For now, I will stick with "beat visitor " and get at least one more B1G road win and we will be in great shape at 12-8. That would be a lot of Q1/Q2 wins and a juicy overall record. Add another win in the conference tournament and lock it up.



in the selection committee room they arent comparing conference teams so much as comparing to other bubble teams. We can lose to Indiana and get picked over them even with similar resumes.

12-8 and we are safe

its 10-10 where we put ourselves in position but stuff like Big 10 tournament performance can put some seperation from the bubble

alot of games to be played.
 
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mdMoose

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I think we need to win 8 more games and get to 20 wins to get into the tournament.

We have 15 regular season games left (8 at home). They are all important
 

Mr_Twister

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Nah, at 20-12 we get in with any mix of home/road/neutral wins. 90% chance.



Syracuse has very little chance of making the tourney. Virginia probably misses it too. UNC has ~no chance.
The NCAA wouldn’t deny Jim Boeheim and Roy Williams in the same season.
 

Rhuarc

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Let's put this to bed. Sweep the rest of the regular season. Problem solved.
 

KevH

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The College Basketball Gawds have always been unkind to Rutgers and their fans. All the talk of postseason play is setting us up for a hard landing. All I’m saying is Go Rutgers at this point. Too many folks here jumping the gun.

Yeah... one game at a time. It's nice to think about what could be, but I won't exhale until it does happen (if it does). Trying to stay in the moment.
 

read option

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Great win tonight. IMHO we need to split with Mich and MD, and win all the games we should (which essentially are the home games vs unranked teams). 20-11 (11-9). A win in the B1G tourney would then definitely get us into the big dance.
 

RUfromSoCal?

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sure, home wins ain't some magic number... but, it's math... you need wins... get them at home...
 

RUfinal4

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conference wins only matter if certain NCAA committee members are opposed to adding too many teams from 1 conference.

For Rutgers
currently 4-2 B10 and 13-4 overall

Need to get to about 20 wins overall but 19 may be enough too
Scenario 1
11-9 in conference and 20-13 overall + 1 and 1 in B10 tourney to be 21-14

Scenario 2
10-10 in conference and 19-14 overall but will need a B10 tourney win to end up 20-15

Scenario 3 - probably more NIT bound but never know
9-11 in conference and 18-15 overall with 2 B10 tourney wins to be 20-16
 

RUforJERSEY

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This team can win some road games due to the fact they're strong and deep in the backcourt. Look at the Illionois game which was there for the taking even without Geo.
 

G- RUnit

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I think the more we win, the more RU hasn't been in the tourney in 29 years is the story, and the more likely what a great story and we get in. Just don't want the dreaded 8-9 game. Is that greedy? ;-)
 

Salvi's Headband

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This tweet by Lunardi is very very interesting to me.
We need to pick up quality wins / road wins. There is no magic number of conference wins that gets us in (I see alot of people saying we need 9, 10 ,11 etc.) Holding serve at home is not going to get it done. I do not think Penn state will be Q1. I do not think that 2 Q1 wins will be enough (big win by Wisconsin tonight, they are rolling, as is SHU). However, every remaining game away from the rac will be a Q1 opportunity.

What I am getting at is that it is not the end of the world if we drop a hard fought game to say Indiana, Purdue, or Illinois at home. In my opinion making the most of our Q1 games will decide whether we dance this year.

The Illinois game getting away was tough...with two road wins in hand I'd say we probably COULD make it just by holding serve at home. Probably have to find another one to steal now. Michigan at MSG?
 
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RUfinal4

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I think the more we win, the more RU hasn't been in the tourney in 29 years is the story, and the more likely what a great story and we get in. Just don't want the dreaded 8-9 game. Is that greedy? ;-)
I will take the 8/9 game over the play in 12 game in Dayton
 

BoroKnight

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They have been saying for years that they are comparing resumes, not conferences. Besides, when conferences were smaller you could compare teams by conference record. But with so many leagues not playing round-robin you can't do that. But you're going to then tell me X number of conference wins gets you in? Bull.

And there will ALWAYS be exceptions. Not because of inconsistency on the part of the committee (even though that exists) but because the resumes of the teams you are comparing are going to be different every year. N.C. State flaunted its NET ranking last year, meant nothing. Nebraska had all those league wins a couple of years ago, meant nothing.

There is no formula. You won't know why you did or didn't make it until it's all over and you compare the resumes. So don't tell me we HAVE to win this game or that game. Just win. Win here. Win there. Beat that bad team. Beat that good team. And hope you did more of all of those things than comparable teams by year's end.

In the mean time, enjoy the ride. This is damn fun. Stop ruining it! :Wink:
 

patk89

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We are unlikely to win all of our home games so will need to win a few on the road. Tough in the B1G. Beating a very good Minny team this weekend will go a long way and get us ranked. Beating Mich at MSG will be almost expected.
 

bac2therac

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They have been saying for years that they are comparing resumes, not conferences. Besides, when conferences were smaller you could compare teams by conference record. But with so many leagues not playing round-robin you can't do that. But you're going to then tell me X number of conference wins gets you in? Bull.

And there will ALWAYS be exceptions. Not because of inconsistency on the part of the committee (even though that exists) but because the resumes of the teams you are comparing are going to be different every year. N.C. State flaunted its NET ranking last year, meant nothing. Nebraska had all those league wins a couple of years ago, meant nothing.

There is no formula. You won't know why you did or didn't make it until it's all over and you compare the resumes. So don't tell me we HAVE to win this game or that game. Just win. Win here. Win there. Beat that bad team. Beat that good team. And hope you did more of all of those things than comparable teams by year's end.

In the mean time, enjoy the ride. This is damn fun. Stop ruining it! :Wink:


There will always be a varying criteria to why a school was snubbed. The key is to always do enough where you are not putting anything in the committees hands

Key for Rutgers is making sure they pick up a couple of road wins and win enough q1 games. Do that and they are in full control before Selection Sunday
 
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goru7

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The Illinois game getting away was tough...with two road wins in hand I'd say we probably COULD make it just by holding serve at home. Probably have to find another one to steal now. Michigan at MSG?
I think at Iowa is definitely in pay, as well as MSG , Wisconsin and Penn State. The only ones where I feel we will not win will be at Maryland and at Purdue, really tough places to beat them at their place. Ohio State is in between the winnable and most likely unwinnable ones.