30 NET/27 Kenpom/30 BART
- Thread starter sport2231
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Weird - our numbers changed, too. I wonder if bart factors in live updates during games?
If Purdue is the 11th best team in the country I'll eat my hat
31st at haslametrics.com, which has no preseason bias and cuts out garbage time (so our win yesterday looked better to his model than to KenPom)
I agree Purdue is over rated especially with their center injured.Unless your hat is made of lettuce I would avoid eating hats.
I am excited to see these rankings for net but keep in mind how erratic they can be.
Richmond was 10-1 & 25th....they lose a game and fall to 54th....Duquesne was 23rd and fell to 66th....Virginia was 23rd and lost at home to South Carolina and dropped to 69th.....South Carolina shoots from 130 to 91.
I don't think San Diego State is obviously 1st but that's the data that still has to be sorted out.
RU as mentioned above is now 39th, up from 47 on Sunday.
Here is what is carrying RU...big blowouts over Seton Hall, handling SFA by double digits and being with a respectable margin at Michigan State.
And SFA beating Duke at Duke, has their ranking in the mid 50s...that RU win is carrying some weight.
Pitt has also been winning the games they're supposed to at home.
I don't know how many wins Pitt will finish up with but my guess is at 9-3 & 1-1 in the ACC, they have Canisius next, then Wake Forest before going to UNC. If they're 11-3 before UNC, I think they're likely to finish over .500 for the year.
Richmond was 10-1 & 25th....they lose a game and fall to 54th....Duquesne was 23rd and fell to 66th....Virginia was 23rd and lost at home to South Carolina and dropped to 69th.....South Carolina shoots from 130 to 91.
I don't think San Diego State is obviously 1st but that's the data that still has to be sorted out.
RU as mentioned above is now 39th, up from 47 on Sunday.
Here is what is carrying RU...big blowouts over Seton Hall, handling SFA by double digits and being with a respectable margin at Michigan State.
And SFA beating Duke at Duke, has their ranking in the mid 50s...that RU win is carrying some weight.
Pitt has also been winning the games they're supposed to at home.
I don't know how many wins Pitt will finish up with but my guess is at 9-3 & 1-1 in the ACC, they have Canisius next, then Wake Forest before going to UNC. If they're 11-3 before UNC, I think they're likely to finish over .500 for the year.
SFA was rated #190 and their only game is beating McNeese State by 8 and they now sit at #133....I think there is some heavy dropping off preseason numbers going on.
Can’t rest on our laurels that’s what happened last year when we had 7 big ten wins and feeling good then ended on la losing streak and first team to bow out of the big tourney and that was that. Amazing to see us #39 in the NET but have to keep foot on the gas, nothing is earned until it’s all said and done in college b-ball the most important game is the next one
Bart thinks we have a 55.8% chance to make the tournament.
Yeah... still a long way off, but it's nice to be able to hope. B1G schedule can turn brutal quick.
That damn St. Bonnies loss is killing me.... 11-2 is so much better than 10-3 going into January.
The key to the season so far was holding serve in the home games vs Wisconsin and Seton Hall. Wisconsin specifically was the one game that allows the B1G record to have some wiggle room.
Even if you got both St Bonaventure and Pittsburgh and dropped the Wisconsin game (& MSU), the metrics that measure would be skewed.
These metrics allow for a couple of bad losses to be mixed in, but really likes confident wins (more than 4 points) against similar competition or respectable losses (9 points and 12 points to Pitt and MSU) are much different than losing by 12 to 14 and 20+ points.
And it's not as if we got the margin of wins to 20 over Seton Hall in the final 4 minutes of the game, when the game was maybe 6 to 12 points and it ended at 20.
The same goes for SFA, that game was controlled on defense and the glass by RU, making that 12 point win, count way more than what happened in Toronto.
Every bubble team or NIT team will have a similar looking resume with 2 to 3 games that appear to be deal-breakers. The 18 games left in the B1G, are going to be rugged matchups where fans will freak out because something goes wrong.
It's best to take a deep breath, so when the inevitable hiccups occur, we don't look like idiots overreacting to a game.
Even if you got both St Bonaventure and Pittsburgh and dropped the Wisconsin game (& MSU), the metrics that measure would be skewed.
These metrics allow for a couple of bad losses to be mixed in, but really likes confident wins (more than 4 points) against similar competition or respectable losses (9 points and 12 points to Pitt and MSU) are much different than losing by 12 to 14 and 20+ points.
And it's not as if we got the margin of wins to 20 over Seton Hall in the final 4 minutes of the game, when the game was maybe 6 to 12 points and it ended at 20.
The same goes for SFA, that game was controlled on defense and the glass by RU, making that 12 point win, count way more than what happened in Toronto.
Every bubble team or NIT team will have a similar looking resume with 2 to 3 games that appear to be deal-breakers. The 18 games left in the B1G, are going to be rugged matchups where fans will freak out because something goes wrong.
It's best to take a deep breath, so when the inevitable hiccups occur, we don't look like idiots overreacting to a game.
reason why? because they all had weak sos in a mid major conference...a loss for these programs is more damaging than a power 5 school. Duquense is one of the biggest phonies out there..sos of 300.
I will say though its a tight bunch so in that respect a lot of movement expected until we settle in mid January.
RU is strong with the schedule at this point....42 overall, 45 non conference. we shall see how that changes going forward.
the Nolan site seems to have got up to speed on accurate NET rankings so here is a link to the nitty gritty board. RU with 3 quad 2 wins right now
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty
i will give you an example of how a strong sos can get you in the game even with a mediocre record...
Minnesota is 6-5 but their sos is currently 3.
They have 2 Q1 wins and are 2-4 in that sector...huge......if they go 9-9 the rest of the way to finish 10-10 and get by FIU in their remaining non conference they will finish 17-15 and probably sit in pretty good shape even with the bad record assuming that they get their share of q2 wins in there.
Minnesota is 6-5 but their sos is currently 3.
They have 2 Q1 wins and are 2-4 in that sector...huge......if they go 9-9 the rest of the way to finish 10-10 and get by FIU in their remaining non conference they will finish 17-15 and probably sit in pretty good shape even with the bad record assuming that they get their share of q2 wins in there.
Rutgers has two lineups rated in the top 51 from https://stathouseanalytics.com/stats/combos_5p/2020_1_Men/
Baker-Mathis-Harper-Johnson are the core 4. With McConnell it's rated 31st, with Yeboah it's rated 51st.
Baker-Mathis-Harper-Johnson are the core 4. With McConnell it's rated 31st, with Yeboah it's rated 51st.
I wouldn't get excited about this raking. It's fun for a few days until we play Nebraska and PSU which will change it.
Sounds like you don't think we can win either game. Based on what I saw from the last two games I think we can win both. I think we bring our A game to Nebraska and with that win a big crowd awaits PSU and we taken them down
Bac. How do quad 1 wins work. Is it at the time you beat them or at the end of the year.?
for example. If we beat Michigan in the middle season and they are quad 1 at the time. They then fall out of the rankings and are quad 2 by the end of year. Is our win a quad 1 or quad 2 win?
The opponents we play and the league's games in the OOC are as important as our own results.
Root for SFA, Pittsburgh, Bona, SHU, UMass and dare I say Wisconsin.
While on paper, it appears we may be competing directly with Wisconsin for one of the at large bids out of the B1G, we need them to finish as high as possible in the B1G standings. That win could switch from Q2 to Q1, just as much as anyone else.
Since RU has a game at the end of the year in Madison, that's a matchup that is potentially favorable and if you can find a road win in conference that may carry the most weight, it probably would be a late season W, against another NCAA/NIT team....that potential sweep could be the difference between making it or not.
Root for SFA, Pittsburgh, Bona, SHU, UMass and dare I say Wisconsin.
While on paper, it appears we may be competing directly with Wisconsin for one of the at large bids out of the B1G, we need them to finish as high as possible in the B1G standings. That win could switch from Q2 to Q1, just as much as anyone else.
Since RU has a game at the end of the year in Madison, that's a matchup that is potentially favorable and if you can find a road win in conference that may carry the most weight, it probably would be a late season W, against another NCAA/NIT team....that potential sweep could be the difference between making it or not.
I think both will be close and we have a chance to win both or lose both. And our NET will swing as a result. We have a good team and the difference between winning, and dancing, is a narrow margin. I’m excited for it. But I don’t think it’s worth getting excited by this ranking given that we are on the cusp of the defining part of our schedule.
