Rankings

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/08/2019

Big Ten
1. #1 Ohio St (9-0)
2. #5 Michigan (8-1)
3. #6 Maryland (10-0)
4. #20 Penn St (7-2)
5. #34 Indiana (8-1)
6. #38 Michigan St (6-3)
7. #40 Purdue (6-3)
8. #48 Iowa (6-3)
9. #66 Illinois (5-3)
10. #69 Minnesota (4-4)
11. #78 Wisconsin (5-4)
12. #109 Rutgers (6-3)
13. #167 Northwestern (4-4)
14. #188 Nebraska (4-5)

Rutgers OOC
#231 Bryant (5-4)
#294 Niagara (2-5)
#210 Drexel (4-5)
#183 St Bonaventure (5-4)
#70 SF Austin (5-2)
#314 NJIT (2-7)
#181 Massachusetts (5-5)
#71 Pittsburgh (7-3)
#31 Seton Hall (6-3)
#139 Lafayette (6-2)

 

[kcg88]

Is this your own computer formula or is a gambling-like power rating?

 

[fluoxetine]

Is this your own computer formula or is a gambling-like power rating?

It's my own computer ranking.

 

[goru7]

It's my own computer ranking.

What are you weighing more heavily? Road or neutral wins? Offensive and defensive efficiency? Are turnovers factored in? Rebounding ?

 

[fluoxetine]

It's based on scores only.

Basically, it looks at the standard deviation of scores around what is predicted by their ratings and you get a game score for each game based on your probability of winning a rematch based on that score difference and the SD. There is a bonus for winning the game, so the lowest game score you can get in a win is ~0.75 (it's slightly lower whenever HFA is >1 point, but it's still ~0.75).

Then I just solve so that every team has the ranking such that sum of expected game scores = sum of actual game scores.

Currently, the SD is ~15.73 and the HFA is ~3.77. So the game score of a 12 point road loss to MSU is: 0.15.

MSU's rating is +0.99028 (this is # of standard deviations above the avg D1 team, basically in this system they would be favored over the avg team by ~15.5 on a neutral court.

---------

The win bonus actually makes the rankings "worse" (i.e. less predictive of future results) but it makes them ascetically nicer and generally closer to what human rankings would give b/c teams are rewarded (punished) for winning (losing) even when predicatively there is very little difference bet. a 1 point win and a 1 point loss.

 

[soundcrib]

Wisconsin is must win.

 

[ScarletDave]

A loss to Wisconsin and any hope on the season is lost. “Hope” meaning making the NCAA tournament without having to win the Big Ten as is the case every other year

 

[soundcrib]

I’m just thinking about a .501 season. Tomorrow is a must win.

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

A loss to Wisconsin and any hope on the season is lost. “Hope” meaning making the NCAA tournament without having to win the Big Ten as is the case every other year

This team is not going to the NCAA this year whether we beat Wisconsin or not.

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/11/2019

Big Ten
1. #1 Ohio St (9-0, 1-0)
2. #8 Maryland (10-1, 1-1)
3. #12 Penn St (8-2, 1-1)
4. #14 Michigan (8-2, 1-1)
5. #28 Indiana (9-1, 0-1)
6. #32 Iowa (7-3, 1-1)
7. #40 Illinois (6-3, 1-1)
8. #41 Michigan St (6-3, 1-0)
9. #42 Purdue (6-3, 1-0)
10. #81 Minnesota (4-5, 0-1)
11. #82 Wisconsin (5-5, 1-1)
12. #91 Rutgers (7-3, 1-1)
13. #159 Northwestern (4-4, 0-1)
14. #191 Nebraska (4-5, 0-0)

Rutgers OOC
#210 Bryant (6-4)
#288 Niagara (2-5)
#207 Drexel (4-5)
#173 St Bonaventure (5-4)
#72 SF Austin (5-2)
#319 NJIT (2-8)
#182 Massachusetts (5-6)
#69 Pittsburgh (7-3)
#38 Seton Hall (6-3)
#146 Lafayette (6-2)

 

[goru7]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/11/2019

Big Ten
1. #1 Ohio St (9-0, 1-0)
2. #8 Maryland (10-1, 1-1)
3. #12 Penn St (8-2, 1-1)
4. #14 Michigan (8-2, 1-1)
5. #28 Indiana (9-1, 0-1)
6. #32 Iowa (7-3, 1-1)
7. #40 Illinois (6-3, 1-1)
8. #41 Michigan St (6-3, 1-0)
9. #42 Purdue (6-3, 1-0)
10. #81 Minnesota (4-5, 0-1)
11. #82 Wisconsin (5-5, 1-1)
12. #91 Rutgers (7-3, 1-1)
13. #159 Northwestern (4-4, 0-1)
14. #191 Nebraska (4-5, 0-0)

Rutgers OOC
#210 Bryant (6-4)
#288 Niagara (2-5)
#207 Drexel (4-5)
#173 St Bonaventure (5-4)
#72 SF Austin (5-2)
#319 NJIT (2-8)
#182 Massachusetts (5-6)
#69 Pittsburgh (7-3)
#38 Seton Hall (6-3)
#146 Lafayette (6-2)

I understand these are your own rankings and you have the teams close but Rutgers should be ahead of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

 

[fluoxetine]

Maybe.

Rutgers has a better record and better point differential but a substantially weaker schedule.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/11/2019

Big Ten
1. #1 Ohio St (9-0, 1-0)
2. #8 Maryland (10-1, 1-1)
3. #12 Penn St (8-2, 1-1)
4. #14 Michigan (8-2, 1-1)
5. #28 Indiana (9-1, 0-1)
6. #32 Iowa (7-3, 1-1)
7. #40 Illinois (6-3, 1-1)
8. #41 Michigan St (6-3, 1-0)
9. #42 Purdue (6-3, 1-0)
10. #81 Minnesota (4-5, 0-1)
11. #82 Wisconsin (5-5, 1-1)
12. #91 Rutgers (7-3, 1-1)
13. #159 Northwestern (4-4, 0-1)
14. #191 Nebraska (4-5, 0-0)

Rutgers OOC
#210 Bryant (6-4)
#288 Niagara (2-5)
#207 Drexel (4-5)
#173 St Bonaventure (5-4)
#72 SF Austin (5-2)
#319 NJIT (2-8)
#182 Massachusetts (5-6)
#69 Pittsburgh (7-3)
#38 Seton Hall (6-3)
#146 Lafayette (6-2)

Hard to believe IU is #28 after they got hammered less than a week ago by the same Badger team RU beat last night.

 

[goru7]

Maybe
Rutgers has a better record and better point differential but a substantially weaker schedule.

You can play a better schedule but when you are losing by 10-15 points on the road or at neutral sites to 64, 38 and 89 in Kenpom like Wisconsin has , it is no great accomplishment. I do think their Marquette and Indiana wins at home by 20 are impressive , so maybe your ranking is still valid. Eye test tells me we are the better team.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You can play a better schedule but when you are losing by 10-15 points on the road or at neutral sites to 64, 38 and 89 in Kenpom like Wisconsin has , it is no great accomplishment. I do think their Marquette and Indiana wins at home by 20 are impressive , so maybe your ranking is still valid. Eye test tells me we are the better team.

Let's put your eyes on a plane and see what happens.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Obviously your numbers are all based on '19-'20 season and there is no objective additions to the model. Correct?

 

[fluoxetine]

Assuming you mean no *subjective* additions, this is correct.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Assuming you mean no *subjective* additions, this is correct.

I got a real low Verbal SAT score so you will have to excuse me.......no opinions, just facts...correct?

 

[fluoxetine]

Correct.

 

[BillyC80]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/11/2019

Big Ten
1. #1 Ohio St (9-0, 1-0)
2. #8 Maryland (10-1, 1-1)
3. #12 Penn St (8-2, 1-1)
4. #14 Michigan (8-2, 1-1)
5. #28 Indiana (9-1, 0-1)
6. #32 Iowa (7-3, 1-1)
7. #40 Illinois (6-3, 1-1)
8. #41 Michigan St (6-3, 1-0)
9. #42 Purdue (6-3, 1-0)
10. #81 Minnesota (4-5, 0-1)
11. #82 Wisconsin (5-5, 1-1)
12. #91 Rutgers (7-3, 1-1)
13. #159 Northwestern (4-4, 0-1)
14. #191 Nebraska (4-5, 0-0)

Rutgers OOC
#210 Bryant (6-4)
#288 Niagara (2-5)
#207 Drexel (4-5)
#173 St Bonaventure (5-4)
#72 SF Austin (5-2)
#319 NJIT (2-8)
#182 Massachusetts (5-6)
#69 Pittsburgh (7-3)
#38 Seton Hall (6-3)
#146 Lafayette (6-2)

One thing this ranking confirms, for me at least, is that loss at Pitt was not a “bad” loss. Yes, we played poorly but Pitt is a good physical team and they were at home. The only game that is a true outlier and a wtf loss imo is that Bonnies game.

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/14/2019

Big Ten
1. #1 Ohio St (9-0, 1-0)
2. #8 Maryland (10-1, 1-1)
3. #14 Penn St (9-2, 1-1)
4. #16 Michigan (8-3, 1-1)
5. #26 Iowa (8-3, 1-1)
6. #34 Indiana (10-1, 1-1)
7. #40 Michigan St (7-3, 1-0)
8. #42 Purdue (6-3, 1-0)
9. #45 Illinois (7-3, 1-1)
10. #69 Rutgers (8-3, 1-1)
11. #77 Wisconsin (5-5, 1-1)
12. #86 Minnesota (4-5, 0-1)
13. #154 Northwestern (4-4, 0-1)
14. #182 Nebraska (4-6, 0-1)

Rutgers OOC
#205 Bryant (6-4)
#295 Niagara (2-6)
#206 Drexel (4-5)
#165 St Bonaventure (5-4)
#75 SF Austin (6-2)
#320 NJIT (2-9)
#174 Massachusetts (5-6)
#65 Pittsburgh (7-3)
#68 Seton Hall (6-4)
#140 Lafayette (6-2)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin #52
Massey #67
Bart #51
KenPom #57

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
21.2%

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
12/22/2019

Big Ten
1. #2 Ohio St (11-1, 1-1)
2. #14 Michigan (9-3, 1-1)
3. #15 Maryland (10-2, 1-1)
4. #16 Penn St (10-2, 1-1)
5. #20 Iowa (9-3, 1-1)
6. #26 Michigan St (9-3, 2-0)
7. #27 Indiana (11-1, 1-1)
8. #37 Minnesota (6-5, 1-1)
9. #52 Rutgers (9-3, 1-1)
10. #62 Illinois (7-4, 1-1)
11. #71 Purdue (7-5, 1-1)
12. #77 Wisconsin (6-5, 1-1)
13. #147 Northwestern (5-6, 0-2)
14. #171 Nebraska (5-7, 1-1)

Rutgers OOC
#182 Bryant (7-4)
#296 Niagara (2-8)
#196 Drexel (6-6)
#146 St Bonaventure (7-4)
#65 SF Austin (8-2)
#325 NJIT (2-9)
#162 Massachusetts (6-6)
#63 Pittsburgh (9-3)
#39 Seton Hall (8-4)
#159 Lafayette (6-3)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin #50
Massey #62
Bart #30
KenPom #53

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
55.8%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Get with the times. Tweak the model. 52nd?

:WideSmile:

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
01/03/2020

Big Ten
1. #10 Ohio St (11-3, 1-2)
2. #12 Maryland (11-2, 1-1)
3. #15 Michigan (10-3, 1-1)
4. #20 Penn St (11-2, 1-1)
5. #21 Michigan St (11-3, 3-0)
6. #23 Iowa (10-3, 1-1)
7. #30 Indiana (11-2, 1-1)
8. #34 Wisconsin (9-5, 2-1)
9. #38 Rutgers (10-3, 2-1)
10. #41 Minnesota (7-6, 1-2)
11. #48 Purdue (9-5, 2-1)
12. #73 Illinois (8-5, 1-2)
13. #165 Nebraska (6-8, 1-2)
14. #178 Northwestern (5-7, 0-2)

Rutgers OOC
#163 Bryant (8-5)
#271 Niagara (3-9)
#191 Drexel (8-7)
#144 St Bonaventure (7-5)
#58 SF Austin (9-2)
#321 NJIT (2-10)
#158 Massachusetts (6-7)
#67 Pittsburgh (10-3)
#27 Seton Hall (10-4)
#182 Lafayette (7-4)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin #43
Massey #40
Bart #26
KenPom #41
NET #29

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
82.3%

 

[dpwhite]

Rutgers RPI is 19

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
01/07/2020

Big Ten
1. #8 Maryland (13-2, 3-1)
2. #11 Michigan St (12-3, 4-0)
3. #14 Ohio St (11-4, 1-3)
4. #20 Penn St (12-3, 2-2)
5. #23 Michigan (10-4, 1-2)
6. #28 Rutgers (11-3, 3-1)
7. #31 Indiana (11-3, 1-2)
8. #36 Wisconsin (9-5, 2-1)
9. #40 Iowa (10-5, 1-3)
10. #45 Minnesota (8-6, 2-2)
11. #50 Illinois (9-5, 2-2)
12. #59 Purdue (9-6, 2-2)
13. #133 Nebraska (7-8, 2-2)
14. #164 Northwestern (5-8, 0-3)

Rutgers OOC
#196 Bryant (8-6)
#280 Niagara (3-10)
#177 Drexel (8-7)
#149 St Bonaventure (8-5)
#51 SF Austin (10-2)
#330 NJIT (2-11)
#157 Massachusetts (6-8)
#74 Pittsburgh (10-4)
#24 Seton Hall (10-4)
#200 Lafayette (7-5)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin #34
Massey #27
Bart #18
KenPom #37
NET #20

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
94.2%

 

[RUnTeX]

Amazing how far RU has come in the past 30 days with the intervening 6 game win streak (5, if excluding Caldwell).

 

[goru7]

This team is not going to the NCAA this year whether we beat Wisconsin or not.

Nice definitive statement.

 

[RUInsanityToo]

Nice definitive statement.

Unfortunately there are beaten down fans on this board who have seemingly become absolutely miserable.

 

[fluoxetine]

I only make this post after games, but as of yesterday's games we are up to #25 in the all important prozac rankings.

 

[dvb91]

I only make this post after games, but as of yesterday's games we are up to #25 in the all important prozac rankings.

A generically uplifting post.

 

[Upstream]

Unfortunately there are beaten down fans on this board who have seemingly become absolutely miserable.

Maybe there's a drug that can treat that

 

[MadRU]

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
01/11/2020

Big Ten
1. #9 Michigan St (13-3, 5-0)
2. #13 Maryland (13-3, 3-2)
3. #20 Michigan (11-4, 2-2)
4. #23 Ohio St (11-5, 1-4)
5. #26 Indiana (13-3, 3-2)
6. #27 Iowa (11-5, 2-3)
7. #29 Penn St (12-4, 2-3)
8. #31 Rutgers (11-4, 3-2)
9. #34 Illinois (11-5, 4-2)
10. #36 Wisconsin (10-6, 3-2)
11. #50 Minnesota (8-7, 2-3)
12. #64 Purdue (9-7, 2-3)
13. #142 Nebraska (7-9, 2-3)
14. #145 Northwestern (6-9, 1-4)

Rutgers OOC
#217 Bryant (8-7)
#291 Niagara (3-11)
#196 Drexel (9-8)
#124 St Bonaventure (10-5)
#89 SF Austin (10-3)
#315 NJIT (3-12)
#153 Massachusetts (7-9)
#55 Pittsburgh (11-4)
#16 Seton Hall (12-4)
#187 Lafayette (9-5)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin #35
Massey #30
Bart #22
KenPom #31
NET #26

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
93.9%

 

[ScarletDave]

Indiana game massive. Lose and we could fall as low as 12th in the big ten and the NIT will then be the tourney we are fighting to reach (due to tough schedule at end of regular season) ... win and the caravan keeps rollin

 

[new jersey1_rivals661559]

Indiana game massive. Lose and we could fall as low as 12th in the big ten and the NIT will then be the tourney we are fighting to reach (due to tough schedule at end of regular season) ... win and the caravan keeps rollin

Big game as they all are, but it’s one game.

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
01/15/2020

Big Ten
1. #15 Maryland (13-4, 3-3)
2. #16 Michigan St (13-4, 5-1)
3. #20 Ohio St (12-5, 2-4)
4. #22 Michigan (11-5, 2-3)
5. #25 Iowa (12-5, 3-3)
6. #26 Rutgers (12-4, 4-2)
7. #28 Indiana (13-4, 3-3)
8. #31 Wisconsin (11-6, 4-2)
9. #32 Penn St (12-5, 2-4)
10. #39 Minnesota (10-7, 4-3)
11. #40 Illinois (11-5, 4-2)
12. #46 Purdue (10-7, 3-3)
13. #144 Nebraska (7-10, 2-4)
14. #149 Northwestern (6-10, 1-5)

Rutgers OOC
#232 Bryant (8-8)
#275 Niagara (4-11)
#192 Drexel (9-8)
#110 St Bonaventure (11-5)
#88 SF Austin (11-3)
#317 NJIT (3-12)
#166 Massachusetts (7-10)
#77 Pittsburgh (11-6)
#10 Seton Hall (13-4)
#178 Lafayette (10-5)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin ?? (Not updated)
Massey #24
Bart #16
KenPom #28
NET #22
BPI #37

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
96.3% (projected 6 seed)

 

[fbc1866]

The Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, OSU Michigan, NW, Maryland are big games and must win.

 

[RUTrack94]

Damn ... revisited conference records:

2-16
1-17
3-15
3-15
7-13
Now 4-2 (2nd most ever after 6 games)

Seeing the result of a full term of Pike!

 

[fluoxetine]

Big Ten / Rutgers Opponent Rankings
01/19/2020

Big Ten
1. #12 Michigan St (14-4, 6-1)
2. #13 Maryland (14-4, 4-3)
3. #20 Iowa (13-5, 4-3)
4. #21 Rutgers (13-4, 5-2)
5. #24 Penn St (13-5, 3-4)
6. #27 Ohio St (12-6, 2-5)
7. #28 Michigan (11-6, 2-4)
8. #33 Indiana (14-4, 4-3)
9. #40 Wisconsin (11-7, 4-3)
10. #41 Illinois (12-5, 5-2)
11. #43 Minnesota (10-8, 4-4)
12. #49 Purdue (10-8, 3-4)
13. #143 Northwestern (6-11, 1-6)
14. #152 Nebraska (7-11, 2-5)

Rutgers OOC
#234 Bryant (8-9)
#254 Niagara (6-11)
#178 Drexel (11-8)
#115 St Bonaventure (11-6)
#87 SF Austin (12-3)
#306 NJIT (5-12)
#183 Massachusetts (7-11)
#62 Pittsburgh (12-6)
#10 Seton Hall (14-4)
#185 Lafayette (10-6)

Other Rutgers Rankings
Sagarin #27
Massey #22
Bart #12
KenPom #24
NET #18
BPI #34

Bart Odds of Making NCAAs
98.6% - projected 5 seed