Objective (somewhat) look at the recruiting discussion

KnightTerrors

All-Conference
Dec 23, 2015
1,037
2,989
82
Lets take an objective look:

2016 - Takes over the worst P5 program in the country without question.

Late in the process pieces together a class in a scramble of Eugene, Issa, Sa, and Bullock. Given the circumstances, not bad. We can argue that point but still not really a class to fairly judge.

2017- First year of truly "his" players but think about where he is starting. No facility yet, dumpster fire program, etc etc.

Lands Geo, Myles, Duke, Souf, Nathan.

At this point, Duke is a big time 4 star with major offer list. We all know the story with Geo and Myles. Souf is a late addition because of lack of guards. A miss no doubt that is corrected the next year. But very solid first true class.

2018- I'd say first year to truly judge what he is capable of on the trail. Settled in. Has the time to recruit these kids earlier in their process which is a huge deal in building relationships. Even if you don't agree with that, objectively a very strong class.

Two 4 stars in Mathis and Harper. Big time offer lists for Caleb and Carter.

2019 - Lands 4-star in state kid who averaged a triple double with great offer list but more importantly Jersey ties and reputation. Lands Yeboah to fill the EO void which so far has been a solid contributor and efficient player.

4-star Mulcahy & grad transfer Yeboah with other good programs interested. Leaves spots open for 2020.

2020 - Reiber, Palmquist, Mag.

First of all, I would argue it still isn't over because if he lands Cliff the board changes its tune dramatically. On the flip side, I would admit this class seems underwhelming from a rankings/offers perspective. Without a doubt. But I do think Pike and staff has proven with the players prior (Harper, Geo, Caleb, Myles) that they can successfully identify talent. The same way we've seen high profile recruits stink, I don't judge a player until I see them for 5-10 games in person.

Along the way there have been some swing and misses - Alvarado, Massoud, McClung, Hawkins and I'm sure a few more i'm missing.

My opinion: Putting into context where we were as a program, if you're arguing that the talent level hasn't dramatically increased in Pike's tenure I am not sure what to tell you. We'll just have to agree to disagree. Perspective matters.I have been a season ticket holder with my family all of my life. I can vividly remember NOT SO LONG AGO getting run out of our own building at home against St. Peters in front of 2k fans at best.The average night you could yell to talk to someone on the other side of the gym if you wanted to.

On the flip side of this, there is no doubt the talent level HAS to continue to improve in order to compete in this league. Pikiell, nor any coach, doesn't get a pass just because of how bad the past decade has been. In the meantime, my advice would to be support the kids and program and try (no matter how effing hard it is, and I KNOW how hard it is) to look at the glass half full and not just resort to bashing / questioning everything after every loss. It is a process and I feel the trend is in the right direction. Subjectively of course!
 

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
So our roster has plenty of talent because we have players rated high in high school????

Yes? That's kind of how it works. It's not a guarantee but there's a very strong correlation between recruiting rankings and team rankings.
 

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
I like the fact he has put a premium on height/length.
Eugene, Ron (not thought of highly when landed), Geo and Myles are 4 guys that make me optimistic
 

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Yes? That's kind of how it works. It's not a guarantee but there's a very strong correlation between recruiting rankings and team rankings.

The reason why our program has been a mess is that we go after high rated guys that have major flaws or guys incorrectly rated.

The best 4 guys to come through this program under Pikiell were players that were under recruited and didn't have 3 or 4 stars (at least when landed).
 

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
Class rankings:

2016: 103
2017: 63
2018: 51
2019: 125

Average = 85.5

We're currently rated 75th in KenPom.
 
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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Class rankings:

2016: 103
2017: 63
2018: 51
2019: 125

Average = 85.5

We're currently rated 75th in KenPom.

There is an inverse relationship between production and recruited rankings in this program the past 4 years so this analysis is essentially useless.
 

kcg88

Heisman
Aug 11, 2017
10,862
17,230
0
There is an inverse relationship between production and recruited rankings in this program the past 4 years so this analysis is essentially useless.

So what is the key to improving from being the 75th best team to the 50th best? Continue to recruit players that nobody else at our level is offering scholarships to? There is maybe one or two high-major coaching staffs in the country I'd trust to pull that strategy off: Texas Tech for sure and maybe one I'm missing.
 

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,554
38,929
113
Class rankings:

2016: 103
2017: 63
2018: 51
2019: 125

Average = 85.5

We're currently rated 75th in KenPom.

Class rankings don't account for transfers, which makes this useless...transfers out and in of programs happen aacross every program., big and small.

If you charted this beyond Kenpom, a 2 star kid who redshirted his freshman year at Dayton is a 2020 lottery pick.....a transfer from St Bonaventure after a year, is a key contributor for Penn State.

This notion that only Power 5 programs have players ranked that can play is foolish. It's unfortunately the way to ignore the remaining Kenpom ratings of the other schools.

The other item would be you can't complain about Eugene departing as a major loss, when he was part of the 106th ranked recruiting class and then bash the later recruiting classes as irrelevant or not good enough.
 
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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
So what is the key to improving from being the 75th best team to the 50th best? Continue to recruit players that nobody else at our level is offering scholarships to? There is maybe one or two high-major coaching staffs in the country I'd trust to pull that strategy off: Texas Tech for sure and maybe one I'm missing.
What is the alternative?

This is where the coaching staff has to figure it out.

Do you want to land a 3-4 star recruit after schools like Villanova and Florida kick the tires and realize there isn't a fit in the program for a player and then you swoop in and take them?
OR
Would you rather mine the globe and look for guys that are under the radar and possess skills and traits that don't show up in ratings and hope they fit in your program?
OR
You do both
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
Right now we have a rotation of 5 guards.....3 of them are poor perimeter shooters and a 4th that is losing PT because he won't shoot. Major recruiting issue.
Totally disagree with your assessment that we have 4 perimeter guys that cannot shoot or will not. Caleb is a good shooter , and the one you are referring to as the guy losing playing time . He has to be put in better positions to shoot and regain his confidence he had last year. Geo is a good shooter who is not pulling the trigger and is hesitant and trying too hard to set up the play or run whatever offense we are running. Paul has not tried to shoot but I think he can hit the 15 foot foul line jumper or 10-12 foot shot. Montes has actually improved his shooting and hit some threes and his rotation on his shot and foul shot has changed. Plus I want him driving and hitting teardrops or bank shots but he is not hurting us. Montes as confirmed the other night , does all this without plays never called for him. That leaves Jacob , who is a streaky shooter and has looked bad. Collectively, they are all underperforming. However, I do not think they are bad shooters. They are good shooters, not great or consistent, that are in a funk. I truly believe things will drastically improve.
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
Lets take an objective look:

2016 - Takes over the worst P5 program in the country without question.

Late in the process pieces together a class in a scramble of Eugene, Issa, Sa, and Bullock. Given the circumstances, not bad. We can argue that point but still not really a class to fairly judge.

2017- First year of truly "his" players but think about where he is starting. No facility yet, dumpster fire program, etc etc.

Lands Geo, Myles, Duke, Souf, Nathan.

At this point, Duke is a big time 4 star with major offer list. We all know the story with Geo and Myles. Souf is a late addition because of lack of guards. A miss no doubt that is corrected the next year. But very solid first true class.

2018- I'd say first year to truly judge what he is capable of on the trail. Settled in. Has the time to recruit these kids earlier in their process which is a huge deal in building relationships. Even if you don't agree with that, objectively a very strong class.

Two 4 stars in Mathis and Harper. Big time offer lists for Caleb and Carter.

2019 - Lands 4-star in state kid who averaged a triple double with great offer list but more importantly Jersey ties and reputation. Lands Yeboah to fill the EO void which so far has been a solid contributor and efficient player.

4-star Mulcahy & grad transfer Yeboah with other good programs interested. Leaves spots open for 2020.

2020 - Reiber, Palmquist, Mag.

First of all, I would argue it still isn't over because if he lands Cliff the board changes its tune dramatically. On the flip side, I would admit this class seems underwhelming from a rankings/offers perspective. Without a doubt. But I do think Pike and staff has proven with the players prior (Harper, Geo, Caleb, Myles) that they can successfully identify talent. The same way we've seen high profile recruits stink, I don't judge a player until I see them for 5-10 games in person.

Along the way there have been some swing and misses - Alvarado, Massoud, McClung, Hawkins and I'm sure a few more i'm missing.

My opinion: Putting into context where we were as a program, if you're arguing that the talent level hasn't dramatically increased in Pike's tenure I am not sure what to tell you. We'll just have to agree to disagree. Perspective matters.I have been a season ticket holder with my family all of my life. I can vividly remember NOT SO LONG AGO getting run out of our own building at home against St. Peters in front of 2k fans at best.The average night you could yell to talk to someone on the other side of the gym if you wanted to.

On the flip side of this, there is no doubt the talent level HAS to continue to improve in order to compete in this league. Pikiell, nor any coach, doesn't get a pass just because of how bad the past decade has been. In the meantime, my advice would to be support the kids and program and try (no matter how effing hard it is, and I KNOW how hard it is) to look at the glass half full and not just resort to bashing / questioning everything after every loss. It is a process and I feel the trend is in the right direction. Subjectively of course!
I hear where you are coming from, but we live in a instant gratification period. If it doesn’t produce immediate ly, then it sucks and Coach has to go, and players suck. Clearly, this team with the talent Coach has assembled is under achieving right now , 9 games in. They do not look fluid or comfortable. Too many guys trying to figure out their roles, some guys trying to do too much ( Jacob) others not doing enough ( Geo and Caleb) and the lack of a set strategy to play inside out. The minute we prioritize dumping the ball down low to Myles or Ron, the minute our looks will get better and our shooting will get better. The perimeter game of driving and break down with the hope of drawing help and then dishing has not worked so far with this roster. We do have a talented roster that has to play better period. I think the coaches can help more than they have to date as well. Why are Geo or Montes not coming off curls and Geo shooting and Montes driving to the hole ? It is missing from the offense and can be integrated very easily. Geo has to get going and this is one way to see if he will do it now that he is a junior, plus it takes pressure off him handling the point . Pike has been resistant to moving Geo off the point and now with Paul and to a lesser extent Jacob, who I trust will run the damn play and get us in the right sets , I think it is worth a try. Ron and Myles have to be fed the ball by the guards and Akwasi can also be run off curls for catch and shoot or drive . It shouldn’t be this difficult . We have the talent to compete in this league, but will take some tweaks from the coaches and the players.
 

BillyC80

Heisman
Oct 23, 2006
17,148
15,611
72
Class rankings:

2016: 103
2017: 63
2018: 51
2019: 125

Average = 85.5

We're currently rated 75th in KenPom.
Ranking of 2019 class at 125 is deceptive because (I assume) it only includes Mulcahy and does not account for Yeboah and Young, correct?
 

Local Shill

All-American
Aug 30, 2001
21,524
7,329
113
the OP's assessment is fair. Mike Williams played major minutes here. Hypothetically, if he was on this year's team he might see very limited time.
 

ColonelRutgers

All-American
Dec 15, 2003
7,109
9,300
113
If we're constantly comparing ourselves against abject failures of previous regimes we'll always look improved. I'm tired of that. We need to start comparing ourselves against our conference peers or we'll be sitting here forever talking about how great it would be to be an NIT bubble team. Just because there aren't any Harry Goods or Brian Samuels on the roster doesn't mean our recruiting is adequate enough to get back to the NCAAs.
 

Goku

All-Conference
Jul 25, 2001
8,530
1,469
0
Another objective take on recruiting and pike is that he will need 6-7 years to make the ncaa tournament. So maybe we’ll see the ncaas in mulcahy’s senior year
 

Eagleton95.99

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
7,560
6,484
113
Lets take an objective look:

2016 - Takes over the worst P5 program in the country without question.

Late in the process pieces together a class in a scramble of Eugene, Issa, Sa, and Bullock. Given the circumstances, not bad. We can argue that point but still not really a class to fairly judge.

2017- First year of truly "his" players but think about where he is starting. No facility yet, dumpster fire program, etc etc.

Lands Geo, Myles, Duke, Souf, Nathan.

At this point, Duke is a big time 4 star with major offer list. We all know the story with Geo and Myles. Souf is a late addition because of lack of guards. A miss no doubt that is corrected the next year. But very solid first true class.

2018- I'd say first year to truly judge what he is capable of on the trail. Settled in. Has the time to recruit these kids earlier in their process which is a huge deal in building relationships. Even if you don't agree with that, objectively a very strong class.

Two 4 stars in Mathis and Harper. Big time offer lists for Caleb and Carter.

2019 - Lands 4-star in state kid who averaged a triple double with great offer list but more importantly Jersey ties and reputation. Lands Yeboah to fill the EO void which so far has been a solid contributor and efficient player.

4-star Mulcahy & grad transfer Yeboah with other good programs interested. Leaves spots open for 2020.

2020 - Reiber, Palmquist, Mag.

First of all, I would argue it still isn't over because if he lands Cliff the board changes its tune dramatically. On the flip side, I would admit this class seems underwhelming from a rankings/offers perspective. Without a doubt. But I do think Pike and staff has proven with the players prior (Harper, Geo, Caleb, Myles) that they can successfully identify talent. The same way we've seen high profile recruits stink, I don't judge a player until I see them for 5-10 games in person.

Along the way there have been some swing and misses - Alvarado, Massoud, McClung, Hawkins and I'm sure a few more i'm missing.

My opinion: Putting into context where we were as a program, if you're arguing that the talent level hasn't dramatically increased in Pike's tenure I am not sure what to tell you. We'll just have to agree to disagree. Perspective matters.I have been a season ticket holder with my family all of my life. I can vividly remember NOT SO LONG AGO getting run out of our own building at home against St. Peters in front of 2k fans at best.The average night you could yell to talk to someone on the other side of the gym if you wanted to.

On the flip side of this, there is no doubt the talent level HAS to continue to improve in order to compete in this league. Pikiell, nor any coach, doesn't get a pass just because of how bad the past decade has been. In the meantime, my advice would to be support the kids and program and try (no matter how effing hard it is, and I KNOW how hard it is) to look at the glass half full and not just resort to bashing / questioning everything after every loss. It is a process and I feel the trend is in the right direction. Subjectively of course!
Great post and perspective. Thank, you.

Another way to look at it is that this team has solid players that, because they are well coached, they are competitive. And that's the foundation we need to attract the real stars. This team is is now built, and hopefully by the end of the season shows on court, that they are at a level that can give confidence to the next level recruits.Those players can see how they can plug into this and take the whole thing to the next level.
 
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SirScarlet

Heisman
Jun 27, 2001
27,358
44,505
113
If we're constantly comparing ourselves against abject failures of previous regimes we'll always look improved. I'm tired of that. We need to start comparing ourselves against our conference peers or we'll be sitting here forever talking about how great it would be to be an NIT bubble team. Just because there aren't any Harry Goods or Brian Samuels on the roster doesn't mean our recruiting is adequate enough to get back to the NCAAs.

This is an emotional.post imho.

One also can't expect to go from worst to middle-of-the-pack in a couple of years in our conference. Unless we want our coach to cheat which he will not do.

Look if people cannot see here that he is building a roster and there will be mistakes along the way given the constraints of our history and our unwillingness to get dirty then I don't know what to tell you guys.

Go root for another team I guess?

My take is that Pike has recruited very well (net-net) with the exception of landing the sexy recruit. If he is unable to do that he will not be here long-term. It's that simple. But I really like this roster as it is constructed. There are some holes in it which can be expected given he is not a hall of fame coach.

I am all in with him and willing to stay the course.
 

RUJMM78

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
26,249
12,527
113
In the end coaching and recruiting results in wins and losses.In Rutgers case there have been too many losses over the last three decades against Big East,AAC and B1G opponents.
 

Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
The recruiting hasn’t been great . But not many coaches that pike is getting paid would be recruiting great . He’s done about what’s expected and it has bought him more time. Like I have said before he needs to find his Warney here at Rutgers. If not, he will be fired in 2 years.
 

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,554
38,929
113
The recruiting hasn’t been great . But not many coaches that pike is getting paid would be recruiting great . He’s done about what’s expected and it has bought him more time. Like I have said before he needs to find his Warney here at Rutgers. If not, he will be fired in 2 years.

Less than 0% chance this happens.....
 
Sep 29, 2005
14,051
16,131
0
The recruiting hasn’t been great . But not many coaches that pike is getting paid would be recruiting great . He’s done about what’s expected and it has bought him more time. Like I have said before he needs to find his Warney here at Rutgers. If not, he will be fired in 2 years.
Don’t see him getting fired in 2 years.
 

Big East Beast

All-Conference
Jul 26, 2001
7,530
3,619
72
Less than 0% chance this happens.....

How can you say that? If Hobbs goes, Pike is immediately on the hot seat. The only way to avoid this and insulate himself from AD regime change is to break through to the NCAA’s.

It may not be right given what he inherited, but it’s how the business works.
 

Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
You people are delusional. If we are not in tournament by 2023, that’s 6 years . It shouldn’t take that long to get there . This is basketball . Get one really good player and you have a shot. Pike needs to find his Warney
 
Apr 8, 2002
15,618
26,999
113
You people are delusional. If we are not in tournament by 2023, that’s 6 years . It shouldn’t take that long to get there . This is basketball . Get one really good player and you have a shot. Pike needs to find his Warney
Delusional is letting Ash coach here for more than 2 years.
 
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NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
24,554
38,929
113
Let's simplify the discussion.....7-25 under Eddie Jordan and the starting point is the consideration...most coaching changes occur even when teams make the NCAAS or NIT. Arkansas and St John's just either fired or forced coaches out after making the NCAAs.

If RU had a starting vantage point of 4 out of 5 winning seasons when Pike was starting 4 years ago, then a change after year 6 makes sense. Starting from 7-25 & 7 players with maybe 4 that are B1G capable, is probably not a good comparison to where most programs are.
 
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Plum Street

Heisman
Jun 21, 2009
27,306
23,009
0
Let's simplify the discussion.....7-25 under Eddie Jordan and the starting point is the consideration...most coaching changes occur even when teams make the NCAAS or NIT. Arkansas and St John's just either fired or forced coaches out after making the NCAAs.

If RU had a starting vantage point of 4 out of 5 winning seasons when Pike was starting 4 years ago, then a change after year 6 makes sense. Starting from 7-25 & 7 players with maybe 4 that are B1G capable, is probably not a good comparison to where most programs are.

Well, not according to Hobbs . didn’t dan Hurley say it would take 7 years ? And Hobbs told him no ?
I think I recall that.
 

BillyC80

Heisman
Oct 23, 2006
17,148
15,611
72
Plum, why even bring that up now, about Year 6? Pike is doing a good job making RU Hoops relevant again. C’mon man.
 
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