Breaking Down the B1G - One persons take
- Thread starter MadRU
- Start date
Very clearly, the teams discussed between 8-14 have all lost a ton and have not replaced them with top tier talent . He seemed to want to place us higher but Eugene’s loss tempered his pick. Frankly,I would be very surprised if we did not finish ahead of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa , Indiana , Nebraska, and Northwestern, considering how much each of those teams have lost, not just one year contributors but 2-4 year contributors. Maybe with the exception of Indiana , we are more talented than the rest of those teams on his bottom list.
That brings us to the top and Michigan State, Ohio State , Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois and Penn State. Not even Michigan State , that we have been very competitive with the last few years , is an automatic loss. The rest of the games against this tier , including Purdue and Michigan with their big losses, will be highly competitive and determine if we go dancing. Not one team scares me, unlike prior seasons, with our deep lineup going toe to toe. It is time to chop down these Big 10 traditional programs and I think the chemistry this Spain trip has provided , along with the experimenting by Coach with the lineups , will provide the experience needed to get over the hump . I predict top tier of the Big 10 as Coach will prove his worth.
I find it dangerous to make predictions in college hoops based on what teams have lost in terms of production. Far better to focus on what they return and add. If you just notice a great team lost contributors you might not realize how good the players backing them up were that couldn't get on the court and will now have a chance to shine.
Rutgers will finish either 7 or 8 with potential for 6.
Rutgers will have to get deeper into big ten tournament to get into March Madness. Injuries will have to be limited to minor ones, and not to key players.
Full disclosure- I don't follow the rest of the conference. I just feel this is Rutgers best team in some time.
Offense is picking up. Quotes have been made to show that defense has to pick up. If so, I believe middle of the pack is where Rutgers will finish up. I have full belief in the RAC, and it's ability to give Rutgers the 6th man.
A funny memory is from two years ago when I was standing next to a father of a Penn State player,Tony Carr. His son was shooting free throws, RAC erupted, and his dad leaned over to his daughter and said, " That's the loudest I have heard an arena this year."
The spaceship is ready for liftoff.
Rutgers will have to get deeper into big ten tournament to get into March Madness. Injuries will have to be limited to minor ones, and not to key players.
Full disclosure- I don't follow the rest of the conference. I just feel this is Rutgers best team in some time.
Offense is picking up. Quotes have been made to show that defense has to pick up. If so, I believe middle of the pack is where Rutgers will finish up. I have full belief in the RAC, and it's ability to give Rutgers the 6th man.
A funny memory is from two years ago when I was standing next to a father of a Penn State player,Tony Carr. His son was shooting free throws, RAC erupted, and his dad leaned over to his daughter and said, " That's the loudest I have heard an arena this year."
The spaceship is ready for liftoff.
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I feel like it’s a post season year.... finally but we just might be an NIT team. I think the assessment was pretty fair. We need to finish at .500 or better in the conference and win mostly every non conference game. I’m not sure Rutgers gets in to the NCAA as a bubble team. We are really going to have to earn it.
Our 3-point shooting and free throws woes diminish our chances for comebacks and winning close games. I like the optimism here, though. Without a clearly more talented roster, it’s hard to make huge improvement in the standings without doing all the little things right and staying healthy.
So you have us ahead of these 5 for sure...
Northwestern
Nebraska
Minnesota
Indiana
Iowa
Other candidates....
Michigan
Wisconsin
Penn State
Illinois
Ohio State
I'd think it is VERY likely these are above us for sure....
Michigan State
Purdue
Maryland
My analysis gives you 4 tiers
TIER 1 (national champs thought)
MSU, Purdue and Maryland
TIER 2( potential really good teams)
Illinois OSU PSU Wisconsin and Michigan
TIER 3 (post season dreams)
Iowa Rutgers Indiana
Tier 4 (rebuilders)
Min NEB NW
TIER 1 (national champs thought)
MSU, Purdue and Maryland
TIER 2( potential really good teams)
Illinois OSU PSU Wisconsin and Michigan
TIER 3 (post season dreams)
Iowa Rutgers Indiana
Tier 4 (rebuilders)
Min NEB NW
Yes. I think RU will finish above the first five, and then above Penn state. It will be close but I see them finishing 7-8 at end of year.
no bohanon i believe...how good is the younger mccaffrey. i like bohannon on the offensve end of the court. On defense they call him Joran
If Beilein was there I'd book a NCAA tournament bid. Still have Livers, Simpson and Teske.
They do have Mo wagner's brother coming in. Who know how good their freshman will be.
They do have Mo wagner's brother coming in. Who know how good their freshman will be.
Michigan has been a destination school for top talent for a long time.I don't foresee a major drop in performance and fully expect Michigan to win 18-20 games.
1,000,000%
That should be said really 1 thru 14. Teams like.....
Nebraska- who knows how good all these transfers could be
Indiana- losing a ton, but still good pieces left...can the guy coach?
Illinois- oodles of talent, but...
Ohio State- looks good on paper but my confidence isn't sky high
Rutgers- No Omoruyi, Yeboah? Young? 4 sophs?
Purdue- No Edwards but decent guys left
Michigan- no Beilein but Teske Simpson and Livers back and frosh
Wisconsin - how much will team miss Happ, I think not as much as people thimk
It's a very wide "middle of the Big Ten" this year.
Wisconsin is not replacing Happ and Iverson easily, Purdue not replacing Edwards and Klein easily, Indiana not replacing Romero and Morgan easily, Minnesota not replacing Coffey, Murphy and Debrayer easily, Northwestern not replacing Law and Pardon easily, Nebraska not replacing their 3 seniors in Copeland , Palmer and Watson along with Roby easily ! These were multiple years super impact all league players. I really do not give a damn what is behind them , they are not being replaced without a significant drop off. We have better talent than when we first entered the Big 10 and now the guys have been through the wars in the conference. We can go toe to toe with any of them.
Injuries will drop a few of these teams to the bottom and it will be a dogfight with the rest.
I don't get all the love for PSU.
I’ll use the same arguement that I used with Corey Sanders here.
Of the top 8 minutes getters Edwards has the lowest offense rating. Now I’d take 108 and his usage was off the charts.
Same with Happ at 102. Lowest among top 8 minute getters.
Of the top 8 minutes getters Edwards has the lowest offense rating. Now I’d take 108 and his usage was off the charts.
Same with Happ at 102. Lowest among top 8 minute getters.
Put me in the camp that the Big 10 is not too strong or deep this year and hence if we slightly over-acheive and mature, we can end up in the top half of the conference.
Squad with NCAA Title Potential: Mich State
Elite 8 Potential: Maryland
NCAA Dance Favorites: Purdue;Ohio State
Teams slightly better than us and probably make Dance:: Illinois; Iowa
Teams we're at /could be at par with: Wisconsin; Michigan; Indiana;
Squads we're better than: Penn State;Minnesota; Northwestern; Nebraska
I see us in the 7-10 range this year in conference possibly as high as 6.
Squad with NCAA Title Potential: Mich State
Elite 8 Potential: Maryland
NCAA Dance Favorites: Purdue;Ohio State
Teams slightly better than us and probably make Dance:: Illinois; Iowa
Teams we're at /could be at par with: Wisconsin; Michigan; Indiana;
Squads we're better than: Penn State;Minnesota; Northwestern; Nebraska
I see us in the 7-10 range this year in conference possibly as high as 6.
On paper I think it is a leap to say we are better than PSU
I’ll give you the other 3. Penn State finished 7-3 over the last 10 and was easily playing like a Top 25 school and returns almost everyone
I’ll give you the other 3. Penn State finished 7-3 over the last 10 and was easily playing like a Top 25 school and returns almost everyone
Fair enough.....but they have no home court advantage; lack of depth; no fan interest; an enigma on and off the court with Watkins and a questionable coach. We will be better than PSU.
I don't even know why some of you are Rutgers fans? Always undervaluing Rutgers while placing others on a pedestal. Some of you need to get off your knees and wipe away the creamy stuff around your lips because you're playing yourself. :chairshot:
Let the boys kick *** and take names this season. Enjoy the ride without overanalyzing things.
Let the boys kick *** and take names this season. Enjoy the ride without overanalyzing things.
"Almost everyone" except the conference's defensive player of the year as well as Rasir Bolton (second-highest usage on the team)
Purdue and Wisconsin will both be pretty good this year. Purdue last year replaced 4 senior starters and still ended up pretty good. How did that happen? By your logic they should have been terrible last season.
Ethan Happ is a great college player, but Iverson was a role player that only played half the time anyway so no big loss. Wisconsin has plenty of talent to be a top 25 ish team this season.
Like I said, it's not about what you lose but about what you return and add. Worrying only about losses would mean you never understand why the same teams tend to be good season after season.
Sometimes you don't lose as much as you think you lose when certain players leave. I'll bet if there was a study done where high usage guys with much lower than the team average efficiency leave the offense actually improves.
Happ and Edwards could test that. Now I think no way is Purdue better offensively than last year. Wisconsin could be. Happ had the ball in his hands way too much!
Not a study but a few examples from power-conference guys who had very high usage lately and an Individual ORtg less than the Team ORtg. All these guys had at least 30% usage.
Oklahoma with Trae Young (2018): 48th in KenPom / 37th in Offensive Efficiency
Oklahoma in 2019: 32nd / 57th
Young was a 112.1 ORtg and the team was 114.6, so not a big difference.
Oklahoma State with Juwan Evans (2017) : 22nd / 1st
Oklahoma State in 2018: 59th / 61st
Worth noting there was a coaching change for OKie State and a lot of turnover, so maybe not a great data point.
Seton Hall with Isaiah Whitehead (2016): 29th / 72nd
Seton Hall in 2017: 51st / 84th
Cal with Jaylen Brown (2016): 28th / 53rd
Cal in 2017: 62nd/160th
Nebraska with Terran Petteway (2015): 121nd / 264th
Nebraska in 2016: 85th / 86th
Nebraska got transfer Andrew White eligible for 2016 which was IMO the biggest reason for the improvement.
Oklahoma State with Le'Bryan Nash (2015): 38th / 51st
Oklahoma State in 2016: 98th / 151st
So I'd say there's probably not much correlation but if anything it's a negative correlation.
B10 finished ahead of ACC last year looking at most metrics. Not even that far behind the year before when the B1G was "down".
Take with a HUGE GRAIN OF SALT.....
preseason Barts has B1G 14 teams
2, 7,8,15,17,19, 25
30, 51, 56, 57, 80, 96, 108
ACC
4, 5,11,21,32, 36, 44
58, 69, 70, 82, 85, 93, 127, 162
Yes, Michigan will have talent, but it's a huge dropoff from John Beilein to Juwan Howard.
Potentially yes. Michigan unlikely to be a top 10 team all season like last year but could still well be a top 20 team.
Howard will be a different type of recruiter for Michigan. He ll get highly rated kids and im sure he ll recruit inner city Detroit which I think izzo now controls.
the only 3 top 100 (per 247 composite) recruits from Detroit since 2011 were Derrick Walton (Michigan), Cassius Winston (MSU), and Josh Jackson (Kansas), though Jackson played his senior season at a prep school (aka basketball factory) in California.
Both Michigan and MSU have a total of 1 scholarship player from Detroit on their rosters this season.