Biggest X factor in 2019-2020
- Thread starter ImBadRU
- Start date
Not a single player. It's team shooting.
The worst at-large shooting team last year was Minnesota, who was at 48.2% effective FG%. We were at 47%. However, Minnesota was also very good at not turning the ball over and getting to the free throw line, things Rutgers was not good at. So Minnesota overcame a lack of shooting skill purely on volume.
Next worst was Cincinnati at 49%, and they play elite defense (4th in the country in efficiency). Next worst after them was Kansas State, who had the 3rd-best defense in the country. Rutgers ranked 46th, which is two or three rungs down from elite.
Almost every at-large tournament team was at 50% or above. The ones that weren't excelled in other areas to make up for it.
Barring vast improvements in turnover rate or free-throw rate, Rutgers needs to get to at least 49.0% (which would rank about 250th in the country as opposed to the 315th they ranked last season) to talk about post-season play. To make the tournament, assuming another solid defensive season, it'll need to be more like 50% or better (which would be in the top 200 in the country).
Side note: Minnesota is losing Coffey and Murphy, who were the wizards of drawing contact. This is one of those under-the-radar things that virtually nobody previewing the team will point out, but is in fact vitally important in why they will regress.
The worst at-large shooting team last year was Minnesota, who was at 48.2% effective FG%. We were at 47%. However, Minnesota was also very good at not turning the ball over and getting to the free throw line, things Rutgers was not good at. So Minnesota overcame a lack of shooting skill purely on volume.
Next worst was Cincinnati at 49%, and they play elite defense (4th in the country in efficiency). Next worst after them was Kansas State, who had the 3rd-best defense in the country. Rutgers ranked 46th, which is two or three rungs down from elite.
Almost every at-large tournament team was at 50% or above. The ones that weren't excelled in other areas to make up for it.
Barring vast improvements in turnover rate or free-throw rate, Rutgers needs to get to at least 49.0% (which would rank about 250th in the country as opposed to the 315th they ranked last season) to talk about post-season play. To make the tournament, assuming another solid defensive season, it'll need to be more like 50% or better (which would be in the top 200 in the country).
Side note: Minnesota is losing Coffey and Murphy, who were the wizards of drawing contact. This is one of those under-the-radar things that virtually nobody previewing the team will point out, but is in fact vitally important in why they will regress.
Mathis? Not sure he would be in my top five and it might be a stretch that he even starts.
1. Looking for an X factor
2. You are most likely both underestimating Mathis and overrating everyone else
I'll put post season chances at close to ZERO if Mathis doesn't have a huge footprint on the season. For us to succeed we need to move the needle quite a bit offensively without much of a drop on D. Even with Jacob Young as a PLUS defender (I'll assume others word) we need 25+ MPG out of Mathis if we are going to be an average defensive team.
Johnson - wouldn't be surprised if he's the best big guy in the league as a senior.
Follow what I have been saying the past 10 years about Rutgers basketball...I have been right a lot and most disagree with me when i originally say it.
In FIGs defense picking a starter is a weird choice for X factor anyway and Mathis is definitely an X factor in terms of how his offensive game has developed. He is overstating his impact though since we have so many other very capable options at the wing spots
There are a lot of choices for X factor this year with so many new and young players it's hard to choose. One that hasn't been mentioned is Carter. If he is the most improved player ready for a breakout like Pike said that would be massive for this team as another scorer inside. Carter breaking out would have a bigger impact than some perimeter players just bc Doucoure doesn't have that in him and Yeboah and Harper are more perimeter 4's. Having Carter be a threat inside and not solely Myles would be huge
There are a lot of choices for X factor this year with so many new and young players it's hard to choose. One that hasn't been mentioned is Carter. If he is the most improved player ready for a breakout like Pike said that would be massive for this team as another scorer inside. Carter breaking out would have a bigger impact than some perimeter players just bc Doucoure doesn't have that in him and Yeboah and Harper are more perimeter 4's. Having Carter be a threat inside and not solely Myles would be huge
My sincere reply: @Greene Rice FIG You are drastically overestimating the difference one player's defense can have on a team's fortunes, short of that player being a Tacko Fall-like presence in the paint or a Matisse Thybulle-like presence on the perimeter.
Regarding Harper...last year at this time many said he should be red shirted. Today many have him as a lock for a future all B1G at sometime in his career. I like him a lot. I really think people should look at his stats as they don't match what people think he was last year.
Lol FIG has the most inflated self ego on here and some of the worst takes on the board. Not every take obviously but a lot of reallyyy bad ones. So much he has his own hashtag now #BadTakeFIG
I actually agree with you on most things but this Mathis take is bizarre to me.
Harper since being a major part of the rotation in the big upset of Ohio State...
18 games
460 minutes (25.5 MPG)
36-66 from 2 point 54.5%
23-68 from 3 point 33.8%
25-34 from 1 point 73.5%
4 dunks
19 assts 14 turnovers
8 blocks
15 steals
8 offensive rebounds
57 defensive rebounds
7 games in double figures scoring
9.2 PPG
I totally get he is a freshman. I expect drastic improvement. Unless you have a lock down defender these numbers are not acceptable if you want to win B1G games.
These aren't quite Issa numbers (more from a usage standpoint) but they are in the same ballpark.
As i have said repeatedly I don't know what type of player RHJ ultimately becomes. Annointing him as the best player is way way premature and is wishful thinking.
18 games
460 minutes (25.5 MPG)
36-66 from 2 point 54.5%
23-68 from 3 point 33.8%
25-34 from 1 point 73.5%
4 dunks
19 assts 14 turnovers
8 blocks
15 steals
8 offensive rebounds
57 defensive rebounds
7 games in double figures scoring
9.2 PPG
I totally get he is a freshman. I expect drastic improvement. Unless you have a lock down defender these numbers are not acceptable if you want to win B1G games.
These aren't quite Issa numbers (more from a usage standpoint) but they are in the same ballpark.
As i have said repeatedly I don't know what type of player RHJ ultimately becomes. Annointing him as the best player is way way premature and is wishful thinking.
The badder they are usually the more right they are.
I got killed last year about Corey Sanders and was 100% right.
Name a time where I have been wrong.
I repeat I am not saying Mathis will be the guy that is the difference maker. this team desperately needs what i think the Montez Mathis ceiling is. He can be SO disruptive on defensive. 3s will always be the best way to get the RAC going. the energy Mathis brings can be a real close 2nd.
See this is your problem FIG. You're always stuck in the numbers. Comparing Harper to Thiam is absurd. You need to watch them play and see potential to project the future. Harper is oozing with talent and potential. Issa was a stationary one dimensional spot up shooter. So while their numbers may have been in the same ball park, anyone with an eye for talent and understanding of the game could see what Harper will become. A stud
The team wasn't better bc Sanders left. The team was better bc Harper Mathis Caleb Myles Carter entered the team. You're not even right on the one example you use to try to prove how right you are lolll hilarious.
My basketball takes have been amazingly accurate if you want to start following
There has been 1 player to play at Rutgers in the past 20 years who had a meaningful career in the NBA. He wasn't a good outside shooter (different game now I'll admit) but he impacted the game with his defense and he was athletic and could get to the rim.
I hate comparing guys. I am doubtful that Mathis would get to that level, but I think comparisons are warranted.
I hate comparing guys. I am doubtful that Mathis would get to that level, but I think comparisons are warranted.
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Maybe not the best statistically, but certainly the most complete player we have, and at the moment our MVP.
I said on the offensive side of the ball we would be better. We were much improved statisticly from the get go last year. This was before the freshman made an impact. we were playing a heavy dose of Kiss and Issa and still putting up efficiency numbers way ahread of last year.
How long have you followed Rutgers basketball and been on the message board. I'll give you an entire laundry list.
Ok well I also thought we would be better offensively. And we will be better this year offensively so I can't wait to hear you credit that better offense to losing Eugene just like you did for Sanders. It won't be because of Young Yeboah Mulcahy coming in and Harper Mathis Myles Carter Caleb Kiss all getting their second year of B1G play. It will definitely be because Eugene left. Be consistent
I think there is a good chance it will be a wash or we will be pretty close offensively without Eugene. I thought he touched the ball too much and interrupted the flow later in the year. Perhaps that could have impacted the low usage numbers for harper Jr. and others.
I really think we miss him defensively and to a lesser extent on the defensive glass. It was clear to me he didn't mesh with the team, but I think he led by example on the defensive end. I hope i am wrong....I think we take quite a few steps backwards defensively. If Jacob Young is a good defender and Mathis can stay on the court with acceptable offense there is a chance we don't suffer too much defensively.
Can't even talk about him in the same breathe as Jordan, and we've had more than one player with a meaningful career in the NBA - Bailey, Hinson, Battle, and Battle was a very good outside shooter.
Johnson. We have a lot of guards. If any of them are off, there's someone else who will get an opportunity to produce.
You overrate one persons ability. Its a five person game, and the best teams run 8-9. Sanders being a reason the team stunk, saying identity left when it was one player, pushing your Mathis narrative the whole week. If Mathis was a real star, sure, but right now he does not bring anything that we already don't have on the team. I know you'll ride this forever as you you seem to like being controversial for the sake of conversation.
I would be absolutely shocked if we weren't significantly better on offense this season. There is almost no chance we won't be though. This one is a pretty easy call for me. We'll see who is right. Spoiler alert. It's going to be me.
Defensively we shall see. On the plus side Young is going to help a ton on defense. We constantly struggled against the quicker PGs in the league and it was one of our biggest weaknesses on defense. We could not contain penetration and Young has the quickness to be a major factor on defense here.
The second area we struggled was pick and roll defense. Doorson was so slow and lumbering on the perimeter and did not have the foot speed to cover anyone except for in the post. So while it hurts to lose his interior post defense and shot blocking, we also should be better with Myles or Carter defending those situations. TBD how we defend interior post players and if Myles can without fouling. A deeper roster and rotation should also mean the players are fresher to put maximal effort on defense. Carter Myles Harper Caleb all look to be in significantly better shape physically as well which should help. The defense is harder to call. I hope we are better in a different way, but I think we let up more points due to a more fast pace higher scoring offense.
That's bc you attribute this to Sanders leaving as the reason. Last year's offense was better than the previous year but we would have been even better with Sanders. Now there is another argument as to whether him leaving will be better for the program long term since other players got more minutes but if you think the offense would have been worse last year with Sanders you're absolutely clueless