AAC vs. Big East
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I would say its close from middle to the top but the bottom is absolute garbage...ECU, Tulane
UConn and Tulsa are currently worse than anyone in the BE
UConn and Tulsa are currently worse than anyone in the BE
Right, but they also get to play plenty of pretty good brand names: Cincy, Memphis, Temple, Houston, Wichita State. These aren't traditional rivals (well Temple sort of) but they are traditionally strong programs. As for Tulane and Tulsa, well, I'd argue playing DePaul and Providence isn't that much sexier.
Still, I take your point, but overall there just doesn't seem to be that much of a difference in quality between the two leagues. They are much closer to being peer conferences than they are to being on a demonstrably different level. Plus I'd think the AAC having football might put them in a better position long term.
Never mock a road trip to Tulane every two years.
Anyway... has any of the media that fawned over the Hurley hire come back with a mea culpa? Or is he getting a pass for being worse than Ollie because its Ollie's players and he has a decent class recruited?
Anyway... has any of the media that fawned over the Hurley hire come back with a mea culpa? Or is he getting a pass for being worse than Ollie because its Ollie's players and he has a decent class recruited?
With Uconn they should improve with Hurley
Unfortunately it is a win vs loss with other area schools.
- if they get some players it can impact Rutgers, BC, Seton Hall, or St Johns negatively since the schools are competing for the same players.
- if Hurley grabs 2 NJ recruits, 1 NYC recruit, and 1 Mass recruit it can be BC, SHU, RU, and SJU all losing a kid they wanted and having to settle for plan B.
In football Rutgers did that to Cuse when Schiano got Ray Rice and the mcCourty's away from Syracuse after they fired a coach.
Unfortunately it is a win vs loss with other area schools.
- if they get some players it can impact Rutgers, BC, Seton Hall, or St Johns negatively since the schools are competing for the same players.
- if Hurley grabs 2 NJ recruits, 1 NYC recruit, and 1 Mass recruit it can be BC, SHU, RU, and SJU all losing a kid they wanted and having to settle for plan B.
In football Rutgers did that to Cuse when Schiano got Ray Rice and the mcCourty's away from Syracuse after they fired a coach.
True, but at least for us Pikiell has cast a much wider net (actually targeting a lot of New England, usually UConn ground, but more national). Also, you dont get a ton of 4 player classes.
BE is still well ahead of AAC at this point.
Ranking the kenpom averages of each school going back to 2013-14 (Wichita St only joined BE in 2017-18, and Tulsa/Tulane/ECU only joined in 2014-15), Big East in bold (# of Top 25 finishes):
7.8 - Villanova (5)
22.5 - Wichita St (5)
26.7 - Cincinnati (3)
32.8 - Xavier (3)
41.3 - Creighton (1)
43.7 - Butler (3)
46.3 - SMU (2)
53.0 - Providence
56.5 - SHU
62.5 - Marquette
67.0 - Georgetown (1)
81.5 - Houston (2)
81.7 - UConn (1)
88.2 - Memphis
94.3 - Temple
95.5 - SJU
102.2 - Tulsa
139.3 - UCF (1)
150.2 - Depaul
231.7 - USF
234.2 - Tulane
236.3 - East Carolina
Ranking the kenpom averages of each school going back to 2013-14 (Wichita St only joined BE in 2017-18, and Tulsa/Tulane/ECU only joined in 2014-15), Big East in bold (# of Top 25 finishes):
7.8 - Villanova (5)
22.5 - Wichita St (5)
26.7 - Cincinnati (3)
32.8 - Xavier (3)
41.3 - Creighton (1)
43.7 - Butler (3)
46.3 - SMU (2)
53.0 - Providence
56.5 - SHU
62.5 - Marquette
67.0 - Georgetown (1)
81.5 - Houston (2)
81.7 - UConn (1)
88.2 - Memphis
94.3 - Temple
95.5 - SJU
102.2 - Tulsa
139.3 - UCF (1)
150.2 - Depaul
231.7 - USF
234.2 - Tulane
236.3 - East Carolina
you know being a numbers guy myself I do love your statistical approach to things...
what I am just shaking my head at is that our year in the AAC....Central Florida was trash, I think RU melted down at the end and lost our lone game there on the road but this was a program that had nothing. Coaching and recruiting matters. Ditto for Houston, RU split with them that year, handling them easily at home. Along comes Kelvin
Timeout......
We all hate Villanova, I get it.
Villanova had a down year because unexpectedly their team went to the NBA.
Looking at the last 4 years the Big East is better than the B1G and any analysis vs American is laughable.
2019
1. B1G
5. BE
6. AAC
2018
2. BE
4. B1G
7. AAC
2017
3. BE
4. B1G
7. AAC
2016
3. BE
6. B1G
7. AAC
C'mon guys be objective. Big East is allowed a down year. The B1G has had 2 down years in the past 4.
We all hate Villanova, I get it.
Villanova had a down year because unexpectedly their team went to the NBA.
Looking at the last 4 years the Big East is better than the B1G and any analysis vs American is laughable.
2019
1. B1G
5. BE
6. AAC
2018
2. BE
4. B1G
7. AAC
2017
3. BE
4. B1G
7. AAC
2016
3. BE
6. B1G
7. AAC
C'mon guys be objective. Big East is allowed a down year. The B1G has had 2 down years in the past 4.
Based on this thread and others, Objectivity is not an option when it comes to the BE. Jealousy, based on the success of the NJ member, is a possibility though.
What are those rankings from?
As a "top to bottom" league, the BE has been ahead because its bottom hasn't been as bad as the B1G bottom... as a "top half of each conference", I'd say the B1G has been consistently ahead of the BE, though.
Those rankings show that the AAC and BE are pretty comparable this year. Basically the difference is Tulsa and Tulane being absolutely putrid in KenPom.
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The bottom of the B1G is usually worse than the bottom of the BE, but the top of the B1G is usually better than the top of the BE. So, the B1G usually has a higher number of better teams, but also a higher number of worse teams.
Comparing the B1G and BE over the last 5 years:
Overall Kenpom averages by year:
2018-19: B1G 38.6, BE 66.3
2017-18: B1G 57.9, BE 47.5
2016-17: B1G 57.4, BE 58.0
2015-16: B1G 80.2, BE 71.1
2014-15: B1G 63.9, BE 55.0
Looking at the average for the Top 5 in each year:
2018-19: B1G 11.2, BE 46.6
2017-18: B1G 10.6, BE 18.4
2016-17: B1G 27.0, BE 23.6
2015-16: B1G 14.0, BE 22.8
2014-15: B1G 18.4, BE 19.0
Taking out the best team in each year, and looking at the next 5:
2018-19: B1G 17.6, BE 54.8
2017-18: B1G 17.4, BE 28.8
2016-17: B1G 31.2, BE 33.4
2015-16: B1G 20.6, BE 31.4
2014-15: B1G 26.8, BE 28.0
Comparing the B1G and BE over the last 5 years:
Overall Kenpom averages by year:
2018-19: B1G 38.6, BE 66.3
2017-18: B1G 57.9, BE 47.5
2016-17: B1G 57.4, BE 58.0
2015-16: B1G 80.2, BE 71.1
2014-15: B1G 63.9, BE 55.0
Looking at the average for the Top 5 in each year:
2018-19: B1G 11.2, BE 46.6
2017-18: B1G 10.6, BE 18.4
2016-17: B1G 27.0, BE 23.6
2015-16: B1G 14.0, BE 22.8
2014-15: B1G 18.4, BE 19.0
Taking out the best team in each year, and looking at the next 5:
2018-19: B1G 17.6, BE 54.8
2017-18: B1G 17.4, BE 28.8
2016-17: B1G 31.2, BE 33.4
2015-16: B1G 20.6, BE 31.4
2014-15: B1G 26.8, BE 28.0
And blending the averages of the last 5 years for each, as I did for the BE/AAC.... B1G in bold (# of Top 25)
7.2 - Villanova (4)
14.2 - MSU (4)
17.2 - Purdue (4)
29.0 - Xavier (3)
29.2 - Wisconsin (4)
30.8 - Michigan (3)
32.6 - Butler (3)
32.8 - Maryland (2)
43.8 - Indiana (1)
45.4 - OSU (2)
46.2 - Creighton
48.0 - Iowa (2)
49.0 - SHU
54.0 - Providence
61.4 - Marquette
69.0 - Georgetown (1)
73.8 - PSU (1)
83.2 - Nebraska
87.0 - Illinois
89.0 - Minnesota
103.8 - SJU
143.6 - Depaul
163.4 - Rutgers
Overall Top 50 finishers: B1G 39, BE 23
Overall Top 25 finishers: B1G 23, BE 11
Overall Top 10 finishers: B1G 9, BE 4
Overall Top 5 finishers: B1G 5, BE 4
Overall >100 finishers: B1G 12, BE 5
7.2 - Villanova (4)
14.2 - MSU (4)
17.2 - Purdue (4)
29.0 - Xavier (3)
29.2 - Wisconsin (4)
30.8 - Michigan (3)
32.6 - Butler (3)
32.8 - Maryland (2)
43.8 - Indiana (1)
45.4 - OSU (2)
46.2 - Creighton
48.0 - Iowa (2)
49.0 - SHU
54.0 - Providence
61.4 - Marquette
69.0 - Georgetown (1)
73.8 - PSU (1)
83.2 - Nebraska
87.0 - Illinois
89.0 - Minnesota
103.8 - SJU
143.6 - Depaul
163.4 - Rutgers
Overall Top 50 finishers: B1G 39, BE 23
Overall Top 25 finishers: B1G 23, BE 11
Overall Top 10 finishers: B1G 9, BE 4
Overall Top 5 finishers: B1G 5, BE 4
Overall >100 finishers: B1G 12, BE 5
Ray Rice, yes, and also Courtney Greene....but not the McCourtys from what I remember. I think Jason was considering BC but then he and Devin signed with Rutgers together.
Cuse's firing of Pasqualoni netted us Ray Rice, Courtney Greene, and Glen Lee.
Fair assessment. Also, the top 4 coaches in the AAC (Samson, Cronin, Marshal and Dawkins) are arguably as good or better (and more experienced) than just about every BE coach except Jay Wright. Fran Dunphy was also in that category before he retired at the end of this season.
First time posting on your board. I’m hoping not to make any enemies.
Great analysis. I'm curious how this looks if you did it based on percentages. Obviously B1G has 14 teams compared the big east only having 10, essentially by looking at the top third of the B1G and comparing it to the top half of the big east. How would these numbers look if you did something like top third or top half of each conference.
UConn will join Big East in due time.......and its football will either go independent or down a level......only a matter of time.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Jealousy? Success? Hey man, id sign up for 4 straight tourney appearances no doubt, but after cheating you guys peaked at 1-4 in the tourney and havent made it past the opening weekend.
From a perception angle, I think the overall strength top to bottom (or top half/bottom half) is less important than the number of teams battling it out for elite status, both in the regular season and the tournament.
Look at the ACC this year - plenty of bad schools (95 ND, 100 Pitt, 113 GTech, 120 Boston College, 170 Wake Forest).... but no one really looks at that because they have 5 teams in the Top 15 (1 UVA, 4 Duke, 6 UNC, 11 VTech, 14 FSU) that all made the Sweet 16. Their average kenpom rating is 59.9 (not that far ahead of the BE's 66.3), but I don't think anyone would be drawing any sort of comparison between the strengths of those two conferences this year.
When a conference is only routinely putting one school into the Top 25, people start drawing comparisons to lower conferences with just one "name" program (like Gonzaga is in the WCC, or what Wichita St was in the MWC)
Fair point, but when has the big east routinely had 1 team in the top 25? This year yes. Prior to that Xavier was top 10 at points in a season. Kris Dunn and PC were top 15 for a while.
But this year...
Why would they give up FBS football revenue to make this move?
Wichita will certainly be back, temporary fall off but they got better as the season wore on, not sure UConn really took a big leap forward
because no one at UConn cares about football but they care about hoops and they are danger of becoming irrelevant...remember Calhoun is gone, they easily could end up like St Johns did for years
But giving up millions per year in revenue and moving to the Big East isn't going to magically make their basketball team better.
Xavier would be a second, true. Ousted as a top-two seed in both 2016 and 2018, though overperformed as an 11 seed in 2017.
PC had a few moments in 2015-16, but fell out of the rankings in February not to return.
Final Coaches Poll:
2018-19 - doubt any in final poll
2018-18 - 1 Villanova, 8 Xavier
2016-17 - 8 Villanova, 18 Xavier, 19 Butler
2015-16 - 1 Vilanova, 11 Xavier
2014-15 - 9 Villanova, 22 Xavier, 23 Butler
2013-14 - 13 Villanova, 20 Creighton
Best thing that could happen for the BE in the next few years is for a team like Xavier or Creighton to become a Top 10 power, overthrow Nova for the regular season and tournament title, and make deep runs in the tourney. Someone else has to show they can effectively carry the banner.
I have to assume their football team is venting money. If they were to make an administrative decision to cut their losses in football and focus on their other sports, I'd be curious to see if they ended up with a higher or lower net.
But they're not going to cut football altogether. So if they move their other sports to the BE, their choices for football are (1) Keep football in the AAC , (2) Move football to another FBS conference, (3) Keep football in FBS as an independent, or (4) Drop to FCS football.
I don't think the AAC would allow option 1. I don't think they would find a conference for option 2, but even if they did, it would mean lower revenue with no reduction in expense. Option 3 would mean lower revenue with higher expense, since they would need to buy some of their home games. Option 4 would mean much lower revenue with a slight decrease in expense. The cost savings for FCS are lower facilities costs (which doesn't apply to UConn since they have already built FBS facilitites), and lower scholarship costs. But scholarship costs are funny money, since the tuition portion gets paid to the university. The only real costs are the cost of room/board/expenses for the additional scholarship athletes, which is a couple hundred thousand dollars at most. No one in their right minds gives up millions in revenue to save thousands in expense.
Yeah they are----losing the amount of money they're losing with no revenue stream for TV that comes even close to matching it will doom football at UConn sooner than later at the D-1 level.
I give it 4 years max.
I give it 4 years max.
At an FCS level, they'd also pay less for coaching/staff salaries, and less for travel/hotels/insurance/equipment/health care for fewer athletes. Really don't know what the bottom line is, but UConn would probably have a very good idea since they only came up from FCS less than 20 years ago.
https://www.courant.com/sports/hc-s...0190117-2wdp5gimnvhlliwykl6npcmy7u-story.html
Wow they are in trouble. The question of what would have happened if we didn't get invited to the B1G? This and worse
Wow they are in trouble. The question of what would have happened if we didn't get invited to the B1G? This and worse
$2.2 million - how much expenses were cut by
The athletic department cut its expenses in 2018 from the previous year by more than $2.2 million. Travel was trimmed by $300,000, the department saved nearly $500,000 on game expenses and close to $400,000 was saved in team meals, much of that savings coming through shifting the cost of the football team’s meals to the university’s expenses. The decline in the aforementioned severance payment was the biggest savings.
On the flip side, the department saw increases in the direct overhead and administrative expenses, athletic facilities debt services, leases and rental fees expenses and there was an uptick in fundraising, marketing and promotion efforts.
UCONN will NEVER play in CBI!
The athletic department cut its expenses in 2018 from the previous year by more than $2.2 million. Travel was trimmed by $300,000, the department saved nearly $500,000 on game expenses and close to $400,000 was saved in team meals, much of that savings coming through shifting the cost of the football team’s meals to the university’s expenses. The decline in the aforementioned severance payment was the biggest savings.
On the flip side, the department saw increases in the direct overhead and administrative expenses, athletic facilities debt services, leases and rental fees expenses and there was an uptick in fundraising, marketing and promotion efforts.
UCONN will NEVER play in CBI!