BAC'S NCAA BUBBLE PECKING ORDER: 3/11/19

[bac2therac]

its because they have 2 Quad 4 losses..also have 2 Q3, otherwise they do have the wins but.......

 

[MadRU]

Powell with a nasty elbow to the chest. Flagrant

 

[gordel1]

its because they have 2 Quad 4 losses..also have 2 Q3, otherwise they do have the wins but.......

Disagree they may fall into the last four in but thats about it. Xavier and Alabama lost today. They are in! Lunardi has them safely in and Bracket Matrix a 10 seed. Remember the committee does not look at conference affiliation. If they lose to Oregon it won't be a bad loss at all. 11 Quad 1 and 2 wins. They weigh who you can beat more than who you lost to. As far as I know a 22 win power 5 team with a 2nd place finish in the league has never been left home. They are at worst in the play in game with a loss. They win tonight they lock up a 10 seed and if they win the tournament can be a 9.

 

[bac2therac]

a loss tonight and no they are sweating big time...consider the A10 tourney has stolen a bid. there may be another stolen somewhere else and if Oregon wins that is another....they better win

 

[bac2therac]

San Diego State up on Nevada in the 2nd half

 

[bac2therac]

San Diego State beats Nevada and bubble teams are worried. Now advancing to finals, what a program 5 of last 6 years making the MWC final.

and Temple in trouble trailing Wichita State.....not going to be good for them, they "may" be able to sustain a loss but is like 60/40. Two bid stealers loom in the AAC if the Wheatshockers can hold on..Memphis and Wichita State.


looks like WVU ran out of gas...onto the CBI for them

 

[bac2therac]

Wichita State wins it...will take on Cincy in the semis tomorrow. Memphis vs Houston....two bid stealers very alive and well

Temple really hanging on the last 2 in/last 2 out line

they beat Houston...huge win and Central Florida but really that is it

 

[gordel1]

No bid stealing in Big12 and Temple with a huge loss. Bubble teams need to root for Utah St now to win MWC. Washington avoids a CU upset to get in the finals so thats an important piece of the puzzle as well for the bubble picture.

 

[bac2therac]

just win tonight

 

[gordel1]

just win tonight

The ASU/Oregon OT game this morning was fantastic. I actually think short of winning the game ASU really helped themselves. Most brackets this morning still have ASU safely with a last 4 bye. Of course things can change if Utah State, Washington, Buffalo and AAC games steal a bid.

 

[King of S]

BAC are coming out with a new update? Turning into a very interesting week with so many upsets and teams getting pushed off the bubble.

 

[bac2therac]

Arizona State is in major trouble. I may have them out as if now...maybe maybe not but will post a quick last 4 in/out before todays games start. but will need full scrub after todays results

If Oregon wins the Pac 12 tourney going to be tough for the Sun Devils to get in IMO.

Oregon, Wichita State, Memphis, Bowling Green, and San Diego State loom as bid stealers

 

[bac2therac]

BAC are coming out with a new update? Turning into a very interesting week with so many upsets and teams getting pushed off the bubble.

Periodic small updates then going back into the basement with full scrub to numbers crunch to get ready for tomorrow

I will say what look uninteresting a week ago has got interesting. Makes my job tough because there are a few schools with sketchy resumes from the power 6 but will the mid majors like Belmont, Furman or UNC Greensboro be thrown bones.

Also how will the NET be used in the first year...could that help a NC St when compared to ASU or St Johns

I now will admit i can see a scenerio where St Johns does not get a bid. It was always thread the needle to miss out but certain things have set up that way. Would say 65% chance in for them

 

[superfan01]

@bac2therac who are your 1 seeds?

 

[shields]

Thank you Josh Newman in Bergen Record. Called St.john's OOC schedule horrid. Agree totally and wrote that the Johnnies should be nervous. Oregon beat Syracuse which is better than any win the Johnnies have OOC.

 

[bac2therac]

@bac2therac who are your 1 seeds?

Duke
Virginia
UNC
Gonzaga

But SEC tourney can change that

 

[bac2therac]

Thank you Josh Newman in Bergen Record. Called St.john's OOC schedule horrid. Agree totally and wrote that the Johnnies should be nervous. Oregon beat Syracuse which is better than any win the Johnnies have OOC.

St Johns beat VCU.

Oregon is only getting a bid by winning the Pac 12 tourney

 

[shields]

OOC was horrid, beat horrible Cal and Tech was terrible. My point was writer wrote how bad it was. Seton Hall guy wrote in another thread thinks conference may only get 3. My biggest problem I guess is I could see RU going 9-11 in Big ten and playing that OOC and ending up in NIT.

 

[gordel1]

Arizona State is in major trouble. I may have them out as if now...maybe maybe not but will post a quick last 4 in/out before todays games start. but will need full scrub after todays results

If Oregon wins the Pac 12 tourney going to be tough for the Sun Devils to get in IMO.

Oregon, Wichita State, Memphis, Bowling Green, and San Diego State loom as bid stealers

Why does Oregon winning the tournament spell trouble for ASU specifically more than any other team on that bubble? Remember conference affiliation is not considered.

 

[RUChoppin]

Why does Oregon winning the tournament spell trouble for ASU specifically more than any other team on that bubble? Remember conference affiliation is not considered.

Because Oregon winning the tournament would guarantee them a bid and take them off the bubble, leaving less room on the bubble for ASU.

 

[bac2therac]

Because ASU is among the last 4 in. They can say all they want about conference affiliation but they know full well the Pac 12 is garbage this year

Washington does not have one win over a team currently in the tournament

 

[bac2therac]

OOC was horrid, beat horrible Cal and Tech was terrible. My point was writer wrote how bad it was. Seton Hall guy wrote in another thread thinks conference may only get 3. My biggest problem I guess is I could see RU going 9-11 in Big ten and playing that OOC and ending up in NIT.

They are 3-2 vs Marq/Nova .they beat SHU and good OoC win vs VCU...compare them to Ncstate...sos ooc of 352

 

[shields]

And Arizona State beat Kansas OOC, much better than St.John's OOC. They also beat MIssissippi State.

 

[gordel1]

Because ASU is among the last 4 in. They can say all they want about conference affiliation but they know full well the Pac 12 is garbage this year

Washington does not have one win over a team currently in the tournament

Instead of going off what the popular superficial sentiment is about the PAC 12. Did you even watch the game last night? I know it went late but it was a very high level basketball game and very well played. Keep in mind Oregon was without Bol Bol for almost the whole year but people didn’t like mentioning that.

 

[bac2therac]

I watched it. Thats not good basketball. Two teams equal..thats why it was compelling..the last minute or so of regulation was poor

 

[bac2therac]

And Arizona State beat Kansas OOC, much better than St.John's OOC. They also beat MIssissippi State.

And loss to quad 4 Princeton and worst of all 206 Washington St

Asu advantage over St Johns is with sos for sure

St johns issue is the overall net has dropped to dangerous territory at 72...very few have made it with that number in rpi

 

[bac2therac]

Fact is all the bubble schools can be left out. Not much to seperate. Strengths for some and weaknesses for other and vice versa

 

[gordel1]

Assuming there are no bid stealers today, The way I look at it there are 10 teams for 4 spots (last four in). Alabama, Belmont, Clemson, Indiana, Lipscomb, TCU, Temple, Texas and St Johns.

I would probably go Belmont, TCU, Temple and St Johns.

The bubble is incredibly weak this year its not even funny that is why ASU has stood pat in the pecking order after an OT loss and has much better wins than any of those afformentioned bubble teams that have much weaker overall bodies of work and not even close to the amount of quad 1/2 wins. The committee cares more about who you beat than who you lost to.

 

[shields]

And Johnnies were 0-4 versus Providence and DePaul. It works both ways. 8-10 In Big East was not good either. Makes for good debate.

 

[bac2therac]

Assuming there are no bid stealers today, The way I look at it there are 10 teams for 4 spots (last four in). Alabama, Belmont, Clemson, Indiana, Lipscomb, TCU, Temple, Texas and St Johns.

I would probably go Belmont, TCU, Temple and St Johns.

The bubble is incredibly weak this year its not even funny that is why ASU has stood pat in the pecking order after an OT loss and has much better wins than any of those afformentioned bubble teams that have much weaker overall bodies of work and not even close to the amount of quad 1/2 wins. The committee cares more about who you beat than who you lost to.

ASU is one of last 2 in per Jerry Palm

 

[gordel1]

What about Lunardi?

 

[bac2therac]

What about Lunardi?

They are 7th team in but that can easily change based on todays results

My whole pushback is that they are no lock at this point. In fact if any of a group of 5-6 schools get left out there wont be much controversy or outrage

The outrage should be that these smaller schools are likely to get snubbed

 

[gordel1]

They are 7th team in but that can easily change based on todays results

My whole pushback is that they are no lock at this point. In fact if any of a group of 5-6 schools get left out there wont be much controversy or outrage

The outrage should be that these smaller schools are likely to get snubbed

Well that is why he is employed by ESPN he is able to recognize the differences between the bubble teams on a consistent basis.

 

[bac2therac]

Well that is why he is employed by ESPN he is able to recognize the differences between the bubble teams on a consistent basis.

Facepalm..thats not his final bracket

He had Texas at 16-15 in the tourney too. He will shift teams at will

 

[gordel1]

Facepalm..thats not his final bracket

He had Texas at 16-15 in the tourney too. He will shift teams at will

Yes, I know that is as its now but like I said the committee has shown consistently that wins matter more than losses. The bubble is so weak this year the big wins ASU has stands out even more. Keep in mind last year when they got into the First Four the bubble was stronger and ASU had a worse RPI/NET ranking when they snuck in.

 

[bac2therac]

Memphis was way down to Houston..now pulled within 3 with a minute to go

 

[King of S]

Houston survives, barely.

 

[bac2therac]

Bubble exhales. Houston survives. I thought Memphis should have been driving to hoop there rather than taking 3s on the last 2 possessions

 

[gordel1]

That game was for the taking for Memphis. I didn't realize that game was on Memphis' home floor wow what an advantage. I know its possible Wichita could win these next two but thats pretty unlikely. Are we down to the MWC, PAC 12, and MAC as the only bid stealing conferences left for tonight?

 

[bac2therac]

Wichita up 3 on Cincy at half

San Diego St in close one with Utah State nearing half in the MWC finale