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Crazy observation......

G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
In our 16 real games we are 5-11.

Adjusted offensive efficiency in wins 102.6
Adjusted offensive efficiency in losses 107.1

That is totally counter to anything that you would logically expect. Our success is negatively correlated with how we perform on the offensive end of the floor.
 
RUBigFrank

RUBigFrank

All-Conference
Jun 9, 2003
2,861
1,779
113
If I understand correctly - are you saying when our offense efficiency is lower we tend to win. Does/That mean that if we are in a "rock fight" low scoring game we have a better chance to win?
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
RUBigFrank said:
If I understand correctly - are you saying when our offense efficiency is lower we tend to win. Does/That mean that if we are in a "rock fight" low scoring game we have a better chance to win?
Click to expand...

Not really...these numbers take tempo in to consideration. It means, at least I think it means, how we perform on the defensive end is the only thing that matters.

In reality we may play better defensively when tempo is lower
 
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G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Average tempo in 5 wins
73+69+69+62+68=341/5 =68.2
Average tempo in 11 losses
72+63+64+70+72+71+67+67+60+66+86=758/11.125 =68.1
 
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R

RU-ROCS

All-American
Feb 5, 2003
12,434
7,638
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
I have switched over to http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Rutgers

Looking at adjusted offense and defense statistics.

The past 6 games adjusted offensive efficiency numbers ranked highest to lowest (points per 100 possessions)
1. 118.7
2. 116.5
3. 112.7
4. 110.2
5. 101.3
6. 99.7

We won 3 of those 6 games. Guess which games we won?
Click to expand...

Interesting stuff. I'd love to see what impact, if any, our FT shooting % has on Ws and Ls.
 
D

DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,818
0
Greene Rice FIG said:
In 5 wins adjusted defensive efficiency is 85.3
In 11 losses adjusted defensive efficiency is 105.2
Click to expand...
As another stats guy..would be interesting to. List them game by game with the gap between O & D numbers and margin of score.

Just a question, why do you relate low D number with other team shooting "night" vs. Our defensive effort?
 
K

koolraddad

Senior
Mar 13, 2010
743
643
93
RU-ROCS said:
Interesting stuff. I'd love to see what impact, if any, our FT shooting % has on Ws and Ls.
Click to expand...
There is, and has been, a real correlation between our Ft's, both attempts and made, to our win record. We leave so many points on the table, it is hard to believe. Even if we don't make them, getting to the FT line can and does change the flow of the game.
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
1984 said:
As another stats guy..would be interesting to. List them game by game with the gap between O & D numbers and margin of score.

Just a question, why do you relate low D number with other team shooting "night" vs. Our defensive effort?
Click to expand...

No! I think our defensive effort is a HUGE part of the defensive numbers.
 
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G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
bwrlaw said:
There is, and has been, a real correlation between our Ft's, both attempts and made, to our win record. We leave so many points on the table, it is hard to believe. Even if we don't make them, getting to the FT line can and does change the flow of the game.
Click to expand...

That is all on the offensive side.
 
D

DHajekRC84

Heisman
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,818
0
bwrlaw said:
There is, and has been, a real correlation between our Ft's, both attempts and made, to our win record. We leave so many points on the table, it is hard to believe. Even if we don't make them, getting to the FT line can and does change the flow of the game.
Click to expand...

You can't always shoot great. But if you defend the paint, rebound, value the ball and don't turn it over, drive the ball,get fouled, and make 70 to 75% of your FREE throws you'll always be right there.

Yeah, I know captain obvious (me not you lol) . But those are controlables vs. Sometimes the ball just not going in.
 
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G

GoodOl'Rutgers

Heisman
Sep 11, 2006
123,974
19,586
0
just guessing.. but think turnovers are the key to easy baskets on the other end. Aggressive Ds that foul a lot but don't get called a lot will generate points off turnovers where D cannot get into position. Our D is solid.. well coached. But TOs hurt that tremendously.
 
S

Scarlet Shack

Heisman
Feb 3, 2004
26,276
15,952
73
Not enough data ..but the point is well taken

I love data and stats ...but the simple is the most obvious

1.) 11-2 when holding teams under 70

0-10 when teams score more than 70

2.) big ten play defense
38% three point defense
45% defense field goal shooting percentages

I’m getting to the point that it’s might be a complete reverse for next year for us to make that step up from how well we put the ball in the basket to how well we prevent the opponents from scoring ....
 
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G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Scarlet Shack said:
I’m getting to the point that it’s might be a complete reverse for next year for us to make that step up from how well we put the ball in the basket to how well we prevent the opponents from scoring ....
Click to expand...


We had the 2 game stretch at Minnesota at Purdue where our D was terrible. The next game was Northwestern and defense was emphasized and we defended well, but couldn't score. Ironically the player he moved in to rotation for defense was the player at the end hurt us on the defensive end down the stretch.

I think tonight Pikiell will give minutes to the players that defend. Don't be surprised if the rotation is different.
 
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B

Big East Beast

All-Conference
Jul 26, 2001
7,499
3,633
72
Scarlet Shack said:
Not enough data ..but the point is well taken

I love data and stats ...but the simple is the most obvious

1.) 11-2 when holding teams under 70

0-10 when teams score more than 70

2.) big ten play defense
38% three point defense
45% defense field goal shooting percentages

I’m getting to the point that it’s might be a complete reverse for next year for us to make that step up from how well we put the ball in the basket to how well we prevent the opponents from scoring ....
Click to expand...

I think this team can be a tough matchup because we’re pretty long and do a good job rebounding from all positions. Eugene is a warrior. It will be very interesting to see next year when Jacob and Mulcahy come if we’re better at fast tempo. Mathis and Geo are well suited for faster pace but others may struggle. I can see two units playing different styles.
 
R

RU MAN

Heisman
Oct 29, 2001
23,630
10,221
113
kcg88 said:
This tells me that we can only win when the opponent has an off night.
Click to expand...
Really? That's what it tell you? LOL! How about we play suffocating defense. And even though our offense is a constant struggle, we play a messy in your face defense. Tonight was a perfect example. Northwester averages 70.6 points per game. They lost the other night to Iowa on their floor by one point, 80-79. We held them to 56 points and 36% shooting. Your logic is deeply flawed.
 
RUfromSoCal?

RUfromSoCal?

Heisman
Nov 26, 2006
34,655
42,656
113
 
R

RutgHoops

Heisman
Aug 14, 2008
9,239
12,411
102
Our defense on FTs is outstanding. As bad as we shoot them, our opponents shoot them equally awful against us.
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
The craziness continues....terrible game offensively means a big fat W.

offense raw and adjusted 87.9....97.7. Our worst game over the past 7 games...since the last NW game

defense raw and adjusted 83.4 82.8...GREAT!!!!

5 OREB for NW really helps make up for the lack of TOs
 
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