Please foul. Don't let them shoot 3 pointer. 10 seconds left.

[BigEastPhil]

Please foul.

 

[rurahrah000]

we won.

 

[gigantor1024]

WRONG

 

[RU848789]

Please foul.

I said the same thing in the game thread - I like that play, but it has to be executed well. We got lucky, as they got a great shot.

 

[BigEastPhil]

We got very lucky. Should have fouled. I am a big proponent of always fouling up 3 at end of game. Think same thing happened as well vs Columbia

 

[bac2therac]

I am not a fan of fouling because of the possibility of losing on a tip in missed foul shot. I just want tough straight up D...OSU did get a pretty good open look, would want better D on that

 

[RU848789]

I am not a fan of fouling because of the possibility of losing on a tip in missed foul shot. I just want tough straight up D...OSU did get a pretty good open look, would want better D on that

You don't foul someone shooting a trey, you just foul someone with the ball with 3-4 seconds left to get the 1:1 or even 2-shot foul. If they make one and miss the 2nd, but get a tip in, game is still just tied. Worst case, though is them getting the rebound on a miss and kicking it out for a trey which would win the game, although that's a low probability off a missed FT with 3-4 seconds left. Much higher probability that they make either one or two and we inbound and they foul and there's not enough time left to get off a trey to win (assuming we can inbound the ball). The probability of winning is higher if you foul there, but there's also a low probability of losing that isn't really there if you just defend (unless you foul a guy making a trey, like Jonathan Mitchell).

 

[bac2therac]

I am just not a fan of it...wonky stuff can happen.

 

[RUEd]

Ask Calipari if he regrets not fouling BEFORE the three point attempt!

 

[dconifer0]

Didn't a Maryland player pretend he was shooting on the last play of the first half against Rutgers when he was fouled (to be awarded three shots)? There are going to be some players who can pull that off. I think that's why it isn't done more more often.

ETA: Maybe it was Maryland-Nebraska.

 

[blockm2]

You don't foul someone shooting a trey, you just foul someone with the ball with 3-4 seconds left to get the 1:1 or even 2-shot foul. If they make one and miss the 2nd, but get a tip in, game is still just tied. Worst case, though is them getting the rebound on a miss and kicking it out for a trey which would win the game, although that's a low probability off a missed FT with 3-4 seconds left. Much higher probability that they make either one or two and we inbound and they foul and there's not enough time left to get off a trey to win (assuming we can inbound the ball). The probability of winning is higher if you foul there, but there's also a low probability of losing that isn't really there if you just defend (unless you foul a guy making a trey, like Jonathan Mitchell).

KenPom did a study a few years ago that hinted at just defending having a higher chance of winning the game as compared to fouling, though I'd more take that data as saying it doesn't matter which option you choose as the outcomes are pretty darn close either way.

But last night's Oregon-UCLA game was a nice example of what can go wrong when you foul. Oregon fouled UCLA up 3. UCLA makes the first, misses the 2nd, gets the offensive rebound and putback and gets fouled doing so. While UCLA missed the FT that would've won it, they ended up winning in OT anyway.

 

[RUDave_01]

But last night's Oregon-UCLA game was a nice example of what can go wrong when you foul.

I watched the last 2 minutes of this game and was thinking the same thing. If you just play straight up defense (and not foul the guy while shooting), it's hard to lose. Plus, you know that the shot will be from behind the arc, so you can adjust accordingly.

 

[RUEd]

I don’t see how the chances are the same. Teams will set a play for their beet three point shooter. Assume he makes about 40 % of the shots. That’s a lot higher than making the first, purposely missing the second, getting the rebound, then the put back. I’d say that’s like 5%. I don’t think it’s even close

 

[Upstream]

A 40% three-point shooter isn't shooting 40% when there are 10 seconds left and the defense knows that you have to go for 3.

And even if he makes the 3 point shot, the worst that happens is the game goes into OT. Sending the team to FT line stops the clock and has lots of possibilities to lose the game. If the shooter makes both FTs, you have to inbound the ball giving the other team an opportunity to get a turnover and score. Even if you manage to inbound cleanly, they can foul you sending you to the line where the best case scenario is you make both FTs and you're in the same situation where the other team has the ball down 3.

 

[Mr_Twister]

Good question for Court Club meeting.

 

[BillyC80]

A 40% three-point shooter isn't shooting 40% when there are 10 seconds left and the defense knows that you have to go for 3.

And even if he makes the 3 point shot, the worst that happens is the game goes into OT. Sending the team to FT line stops the clock and has lots of possibilities to lose the game. If the shooter makes both FTs, you have to inbound the ball giving the other team an opportunity to get a turnover and score. Even if you manage to inbound cleanly, they can foul you sending you to the line where the best case scenario is you make both FTs and you're in the same situation where the other team has the ball down 3.

This. Defend the arc but do not foul in the act of shooting. You have a 65% chance of a miss versus a foul shot with 65% of a make and then anything can happen as described above.

 

[TDIrish27]

You don't foul someone shooting a trey, you just foul someone with the ball with 3-4 seconds left to get the 1:1 or even 2-shot foul. If they make one and miss the 2nd, but get a tip in, game is still just tied. Worst case, though is them getting the rebound on a miss and kicking it out for a trey which would win the game, although that's a low probability off a missed FT with 3-4 seconds left. Much higher probability that they make either one or two and we inbound and they foul and there's not enough time left to get off a trey to win (assuming we can inbound the ball). The probability of winning is higher if you foul there, but there's also a low probability of losing that isn't really there if you just defend (unless you foul a guy making a trey, like Jonathan Mitchell).

Agreed-----believe in fouling under 3 seconds up 3.

But Bac's also correct------weird things can happen.

Never saw a worse finish than the Creighton-Marquette game the other night-----maybe Duke-UK Final 8 game on Laettner shot but that's it.

Creighton up 3 with the ball-----taking it out from under Marquette basket with .8 seconds to play-----and they lose in OT. Crazy

 

[bethlehemfan]

Defend the line don’t foul. Fouls to give different story. Don’t stop the clock and give up points.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

At the timeout I was hoping we wouldn't foul. I am not saying what is wrong or right. As BAC says I just get too worried about all the little things that can go wrong.

If you know you only have 10 seconds to defend and a relatively small area that needs to be defended I'd think the chances are less than 20% of a make and OT.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Defend the line don’t foul. Fouls to give different story. Don’t stop the clock and give up points.

That's the thing you are asking a VERY young team to make decisions on the fly that aren't easy. The instruction isn't go foul. It is foul at a certain time on the clock when you know the opponent can't quickly be in the act of shooting. not easy instructions to give a 19 year old on a big stage at an important time.

 

[RU848789]

Agreed-----believe in fouling under 3 seconds up 3.

But Bac's also correct------weird things can happen.

Never saw a worse finish than the Creighton-Marquette game the other night-----maybe Duke-UK Final 8 game on Laettner shot but that's it.

Creighton up 3 with the ball-----taking it out from under Marquette basket with .8 seconds to play-----and they lose in OT. Crazy

When up 3 with the ball and less than 1 second, I have no idea why anyone tried to in-bounds under the other team's shooting basket. Simply throw it up high somewhere past mid-court near your basket (i.e., in your offensive zone) and let people fight over it and the clock runs out.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

When up 3 with the ball and less than 1 second, I have no idea why anyone tried to in-bounds under the other team's shooting basket. Simply throw it up high somewhere past mid-court near your basket (i.e., in your offensive zone) and let people fight over it and the clock runs out.

1. dont hit backboard
2. make sure it gets touched and doesnt do out of bounds on the other side of the court

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Agreed-----believe in fouling under 3 seconds up 3.

But Bac's also correct------weird things can happen.

Never saw a worse finish than the Creighton-Marquette game the other night-----maybe Duke-UK Final 8 game on Laettner shot but that's it.

Creighton up 3 with the ball-----taking it out from under Marquette basket with .8 seconds to play-----and they lose in OT. Crazy

How did that happen?

 

[biazza38]

I’m fine with fouling, but we didn’t have a chance. The we’re passing the ball with 4-5 seconds. There’s was no opportunity to foul with little time left.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If I knew OSU would have gotten away with a blatant moving screen I might have opted to foul. Just saw the clip and now understand why they got such a good look. Geo Baker had no chance of getting around that screen.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Players miss free throws a lot

Jimmy Butler just clanked one and lost the Sixers the game to the lowly Hawks

 

[RUonBrain]

If I knew OSU would have gotten away with a blatant moving screen I might have opted to foul. Just saw the clip and now understand why they got such a good look. Geo Baker had no chance of getting around that screen.

I saw that too during replay afterwards.

It was a horrendous no call.
Justice the shot was missed for sure.

Does that ever get called with so little time left in a game?

 

[blockm2]

I don’t see how the chances are the same. Teams will set a play for their beet three point shooter. Assume he makes about 40 % of the shots. That’s a lot higher than making the first, purposely missing the second, getting the rebound, then the put back. I’d say that’s like 5%. I don’t think it’s even close

Well mathematically the chances are basically the same, so the question is explaining why. You "think it isn't even close" when we already have proof that it is.

If a team has a 40% shooter, that doesn't mean they have a 40% chance of making a 3 point shot on a possession. 40% shooters don't have a 40% chance of making a shot on every single attempt. Wide open corner 3s might go in 60% of the time. Heavily contested off the dribble shots might go in 15% of the time. Simply saying you will run a play for a shooter doesn't even mean you can run the play correctly. Teams can go to different defenses in the last seconds to do things like switch every screen and ignore cutters to the basket that they can't do the rest of the game.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I saw that too during replay afterwards.

It was a horrendous no call.
Justice the shot was missed for sure.

Does that ever get called with so little time left in a game?

Watched Purdue Indiana last night. Happ inbounding in a tie game with 4 seconds blatantly traveled and officials didn’t have the guts to make the call.

 

[wheezer]

You don't foul someone shooting a trey, you just foul someone with the ball with 3-4 seconds left to get the 1:1 or even 2-shot foul. If they make one and miss the 2nd, but get a tip in, game is still just tied. Worst case, though is them getting the rebound on a miss and kicking it out for a trey which would win the game, although that's a low probability off a missed FT with 3-4 seconds left. Much higher probability that they make either one or two and we inbound and they foul and there's not enough time left to get off a trey to win (assuming we can inbound the ball). The probability of winning is higher if you foul there, but there's also a low probability of losing that isn't really there if you just defend (unless you foul a guy making a trey, like Jonathan Mitchell).

------
fouling also assumes that you are going to time it properly.... if an anxious player does it a second or two too early, it could make a difference in what happens

not a fan of fouling...... in todays game we see more shooting foul teams tap a missed foul shot out towards center court, to one of their players.... it happens all the time, in every game

if that were to happen, you could actually lose with the first foul shot being hit, and then a
three pointer at the buzzer

play tough D, knowing the other team has to
take the 3 pointer, and do your best... you also know that the choice will be one or two of
their players....be ready for those two

....just jump
straight up on any block shot attempt you make.

 

[G- RUnit]

Under 5 seconds would always foul. The Clock is your friend. Never understood letting team shoot. Can still play good defense under five seconds too and far less risk of tie.

 

[Plum Street]

If I am the trailing team , I don’t want to get fouled . Would want to run my offense and get the best look I can.
So if I am ahead, I would foul

 

[TDIrish27]

When up 3 with the ball and less than 1 second, I have no idea why anyone tried to in-bounds under the other team's shooting basket. Simply throw it up high somewhere past mid-court near your basket (i.e., in your offensive zone) and let people fight over it and the clock runs out.

That's exactly what they did-----threw it the length of the floor to their big at foul line.

He mistimed his leap and ball went over his head with no one touching it.

Marquette ran a catch and shoot 3 point play off the inbound and the ball hit nothing but the net and the floor.

Went on to win in OT.

 

[RUEd]

Well mathematically the chances are basically the same, so the question is explaining why. You "think it isn't even close" when we already have proof that it is.

If a team has a 40% shooter, that doesn't mean they have a 40% chance of making a 3 point shot on a possession. 40% shooters don't have a 40% chance of making a shot on every single attempt. Wide open corner 3s might go in 60% of the time. Heavily contested off the dribble shots might go in 15% of the time. Simply saying you will run a play for a shooter doesn't even mean you can run the play correctly. Teams can go to different defenses in the last seconds to do things like switch every screen and ignore cutters to the basket that they can't do the rest of the game.

I disagree that the percentages are the same. And btw Marquette fouled , up by 3 , with 3 seconds left. Hall made the first, missed the second badly. Easy rebound, game over

 

[TDIrish27]

Providence has to be kicking themselves they didn't foul.

 

[blockm2]

I disagree that the percentages are the same. And btw Marquette fouled , up by 3 , with 3 seconds left. Hall made the first, missed the second badly. Easy rebound, game over

the study has been done. The percentages are the same whether you foul or don't foul. You can't disagree with a fact. Did you not read it???

Citing an anecdote doesn't disprove the notion that you win maybe 93-94% of the time either way you play it. There are plenty of teams that fouled when up 3 and ended up losing the game. There are also plenty of teams that just defended and let the opponent shoot the 3 and won the game.

 

[blockm2]

UCLA up 3 vs Utah with 8 seconds left. They fouled and lost in regulation.

 

[bac2therac]

Ucla deserves to lose...they fouled with 6.9 sec left..way too much time...good lord make them work a little the ucla guy fouled him right away. Never a fan of fouling..why..at worst you go to overtime

 

[Plum Street]

Ucla deserves to lose...they fouled with 6.9 sec left..way too much time...good lord make them work a little the ucla guy fouled him right away. Never a fan of fouling..why..at worst you go to overtime

I think some cases it’s warranted to foul . Time, personnel, team strengths etc.
Like I said before, if I am the trailing team I want the best 3 point shot I can get . I don’t want to get fouled. So on defense I would probably foul in most situations.
What I don’t understand is when the clock gets to under 5 seconds and offensive team is looking for a 3 point shot, why do they bother guarding the big guys under the basket?

 

[blockm2]

Ucla deserves to lose...they fouled with 6.9 sec left..way too much time...good lord make them work a little the ucla guy fouled him right away. Never a fan of fouling..why..at worst you go to overtime

the timing and situation as to make it ideal to foul when up 3 are very difficult for college players to get right in the heat of the moment. It's kinda like how NBA teams can execute a 2 for 1 at the end of a quarter/half/game, but college teams can rarely pull it off successfully.