THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-WISCONSIN PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Anyone know the line? If the game was at the RAC I feel like we could take them, but at Kohl Center on the tail end of a brutal 3 game stretch, I think we are going to be gassed. I'm going 68-60 Wisconsin. I do think we turn around and beat Fordham and SHU though afterwards.
Jay young always has a strategy of switching bigs on happ to make him not know what’s coming.
Pressure Happ, throw a double at him, don't let him establish position first. Use fouls on him as he is not a great free throw shooter. He can turn it over as well. Front him all game if turnovers are an issue. Then once he expects it, switch it.
Davidson and Kiss match up well.
Baker has the height advantage on Trice. Matchup is not above Bakers head by any means.
I like how Doorson and Johnson will be rotating on Happ. I feel confident about Johnson's play, and discipline.
RU 66 Wisconsin 65.
Pressure Happ, throw a double at him, don't let him establish position first. Use fouls on him as he is not a great free throw shooter. He can turn it over as well. Front him all game if turnovers are an issue. Then once he expects it, switch it.
Davidson and Kiss match up well.
Baker has the height advantage on Trice. Matchup is not above Bakers head by any means.
I like how Doorson and Johnson will be rotating on Happ. I feel confident about Johnson's play, and discipline.
RU 66 Wisconsin 65.
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Wisconsin has beat Xavier, NC State, Stanford, Iowa, and Oklahoma while losing to Virginia by 7. Its an extremely good team that a decent shot for top 5 in league. They will likely be in the 15-18 range of the rankings in the new poll
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Hey guys, just dropping in in preparation for tomorrow's game. This is a bit of a trap game for UW as they've had a string of 5 "brand name" games in a row in a 9-day stretch with only one of those at home (3 in the Bahamas tourney, then NC State, then @ Iowa) and they play a rivalry game at Marquette on Saturday. I was reading you've been on a brutal schedule, too and have your rivalry game with Seton Hall coming up. I was at the game that UW & RU played at MSG a couple of years ago, and really respect your team, and especially the D.
You already know that Happ is really the most important player and a defensive problem for any team. Play him straight up and he'll win most of those matchups. Double him and he'll find the open man - he averages over 5 assists per game. As a team, UW is shooting 42% from behind the arc, so pick your poison. He does a lot dribbling, though, and good defensive teams have been able to turn him over with well-timed help. And he can't shoot over 5 feet away, including from the FT line. He's also fouled out of 2 games, so getting him in foul trouble is another potential strategy.
Trice is the guy you might not know about - he was hurt last year, but this year he's averaging 17 PPG. He was 4-8 from beyond the arc against Iowa and his average went down (28-48 for the year). He's a little guy, but he and Happ can really play the pick and roll game well. He's the late shot clock go-to guy most of the time. Which brings me to...
Pace. Wisconsin plays in low possessions games and is not afraid to go deep into the shot clock. Therefore, the point spread really surprises me. I would expect a game in the 50s. I'll go with:
UW 54
RU 48
You already know that Happ is really the most important player and a defensive problem for any team. Play him straight up and he'll win most of those matchups. Double him and he'll find the open man - he averages over 5 assists per game. As a team, UW is shooting 42% from behind the arc, so pick your poison. He does a lot dribbling, though, and good defensive teams have been able to turn him over with well-timed help. And he can't shoot over 5 feet away, including from the FT line. He's also fouled out of 2 games, so getting him in foul trouble is another potential strategy.
Trice is the guy you might not know about - he was hurt last year, but this year he's averaging 17 PPG. He was 4-8 from beyond the arc against Iowa and his average went down (28-48 for the year). He's a little guy, but he and Happ can really play the pick and roll game well. He's the late shot clock go-to guy most of the time. Which brings me to...
Pace. Wisconsin plays in low possessions games and is not afraid to go deep into the shot clock. Therefore, the point spread really surprises me. I would expect a game in the 50s. I'll go with:
UW 54
RU 48
I think this could be a close game and Rutgers has a chance if we can play like we’ve been playing. I would like our chances more at the RAC because it’s so tough to win road games especially at your place but you will see a much different Rutgers team tomorrow night as we have more balanced scoring and can hit from 3 point range. I think it’s a good thing that Corey left because so many other players are now involved and it would be different if Corey sanders was here. Potential upset tomorrow.
Yep, I don't disagree about the potential upset or if this were at the RAC. You've got UW coming off two gritty wins in a row and it would be a natural spot for a letdown.
Similar to MSU. Close first half, but schedule, travel, and growing pains cause RU to fall, 70-58.
The weird thing about these prediction threads is that in almost every conference game, especially those on the road, we’re really just predicting whether RU can pull an upset or not. Might as well just make this a yes or no choice on these threads.
So my pick is that we will pull an upset. The score is less relevant but I’ll say 59-57 RU.
So my pick is that we will pull an upset. The score is less relevant but I’ll say 59-57 RU.
When’s the last time Rutgers won two straight road games? Heck when’s the last time Rutgers won two road games against high majors in the same season, period?
Wisc 72
RU 60
Wisc 72
RU 60
Very good and “a decent shot at top 5 in the league” is underselling them. A real test tonight.
Wisconsin is the choice in the prediction thread for me, but there's one path for a RU win....stay at home with the shooters and let Happ get 35 to 40 points.
The instincts defensively are to play man to man, but Wisconsin thrives on making the passes necessary to burn you from 3....I would let Happ go to work in the paint and make Wisconsin uncomfortable enough to feel the pressure to continue to feed him the ball....usually teams anticipate a changing defense and that's where Trice Davison and Printzl kill you from the 3 point line.
I don't know what Jay Young decides to do, but other than a late 3 at MSG in the game 2 years ago, RU allowed Happ to get 30, but the game went to OT and RU was in it the whole way. I'm not sure I would play this any other way, but that's one half of the equation.
On the offensive end, Baker and McConnell appear to be the keys to me.....Can Baker play an effective 30 minutes and if Baker isn't on the ball, can McConnell provide another couple of baskets or shot attempts to keep the defense honest??
It sounds crazy, but I would probably feel like Peter Kiss has a breakout game tonight.....I think Wisconsin provides enough sound defense but Kiss should find shooting room from the corners and play well.
If the ball sticks in Eugene's hands like it has in the last couple of games, RU will run into problems....Eugene has been a warrior, but he hasn't been decisive when he's gotten the ball at times in the post and it's resulted in a few tough shots or bad possessions.....I would keep him out of the post and allow him to pull Happ or whomever draws that assignment, away from the hoop, to allow a couple of drives and up and under moves. He could be the counter to Happ inside.
Wisconsin's poster mentioning the "trap" is probably correct with Marquette coming up next. The NC State game opened my eyes on how many open looks the Wolfpack guards got in Madison a couple of weeks ago. A lot of quick shots before the defense was set, some drives and kickouts were available that night and some vs Iowa as well.
Wisconsin 60, RU 55.....very tough assignment for Wisconsin right now....they are playing a team with confidence and nothing to lose. RU can play loose and the longer this game stays a game, the more frustrated the Badgers fans will become. If Harper and McConnell can provide something off the bench on offense and Mathis stays dominate defensively and can take away Brad Davison for extended stretches and make him put the ball on the floor, this could be a huge road upset.
The instincts defensively are to play man to man, but Wisconsin thrives on making the passes necessary to burn you from 3....I would let Happ go to work in the paint and make Wisconsin uncomfortable enough to feel the pressure to continue to feed him the ball....usually teams anticipate a changing defense and that's where Trice Davison and Printzl kill you from the 3 point line.
I don't know what Jay Young decides to do, but other than a late 3 at MSG in the game 2 years ago, RU allowed Happ to get 30, but the game went to OT and RU was in it the whole way. I'm not sure I would play this any other way, but that's one half of the equation.
On the offensive end, Baker and McConnell appear to be the keys to me.....Can Baker play an effective 30 minutes and if Baker isn't on the ball, can McConnell provide another couple of baskets or shot attempts to keep the defense honest??
It sounds crazy, but I would probably feel like Peter Kiss has a breakout game tonight.....I think Wisconsin provides enough sound defense but Kiss should find shooting room from the corners and play well.
If the ball sticks in Eugene's hands like it has in the last couple of games, RU will run into problems....Eugene has been a warrior, but he hasn't been decisive when he's gotten the ball at times in the post and it's resulted in a few tough shots or bad possessions.....I would keep him out of the post and allow him to pull Happ or whomever draws that assignment, away from the hoop, to allow a couple of drives and up and under moves. He could be the counter to Happ inside.
Wisconsin's poster mentioning the "trap" is probably correct with Marquette coming up next. The NC State game opened my eyes on how many open looks the Wolfpack guards got in Madison a couple of weeks ago. A lot of quick shots before the defense was set, some drives and kickouts were available that night and some vs Iowa as well.
Wisconsin 60, RU 55.....very tough assignment for Wisconsin right now....they are playing a team with confidence and nothing to lose. RU can play loose and the longer this game stays a game, the more frustrated the Badgers fans will become. If Harper and McConnell can provide something off the bench on offense and Mathis stays dominate defensively and can take away Brad Davison for extended stretches and make him put the ball on the floor, this could be a huge road upset.
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NJ Hawk, that's how Xavier played them. Happ took 23 shots.
It's honestly not a bad strategy. The downside is Xavier only shot 20% on three-pointers, while Wisconsin went 9-16.
The strategy might be to rotate guys on Happ, play physical, send him to the line... NO and-1 opportunities, if you foul him get your money's worth. Not saying play dirty just saying don't only brush his arm and let him get the ball up anyway... this was a problem against Michigan State.
Meanwhile, you stick Thiam on Trice and make him do 10 pushups for every three-pointer Trice attempts. Thiam has 9 or 10 inches on him. Don't let him get a single shot off behind the arc. If he wants to drive by Thiam that's fine.
This leaves Baker on Davison, Kiss on King, and Omoruyi on Reuvers. Make those three beat you.
It's honestly not a bad strategy. The downside is Xavier only shot 20% on three-pointers, while Wisconsin went 9-16.
The strategy might be to rotate guys on Happ, play physical, send him to the line... NO and-1 opportunities, if you foul him get your money's worth. Not saying play dirty just saying don't only brush his arm and let him get the ball up anyway... this was a problem against Michigan State.
Meanwhile, you stick Thiam on Trice and make him do 10 pushups for every three-pointer Trice attempts. Thiam has 9 or 10 inches on him. Don't let him get a single shot off behind the arc. If he wants to drive by Thiam that's fine.
This leaves Baker on Davison, Kiss on King, and Omoruyi on Reuvers. Make those three beat you.
I agree, but I don't want Baker expending energy chasing Trice around....Thiam makes sense as does Kiss....I think Trice will get his shot attempts off the dribble, the key is taking away Davison and the other shooter....I would trust Kiss and Mathis with extended minutes and potentially cut back on Thiam's time, unless he's completely engaged offensively from the dribble drive. I don't see Wisconsin having breakdowns defensively, where they leave Thiam open....unless it's transition and in that case, I'll take my chances with Kiss taking a quick look or Mathis getting the ball and getting around his man and to the rim....This is a game where if Mathis and Harper played a lot of minutes, they'd draw a LOT of fouls.....the key is trusting them to stay alert defensively all game long.
Oh yeah, having Mathis dog Trice should happen for sure. Him or Thiam needs to be there all 40 minutes IMO.
gonna be an ugly one
RU - 57
WISKY - 51
RU - 57
WISKY - 51
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