SB Nation's 2018 Rutgers preview

[BigTenRutgers]

Most in-depth preview of the upcoming season I've seen anywhere, by far.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...rutgers-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

 

[bigmatt718]

Only thing I'd critique is he didn't know that Art is most likely going to start. Overall though a fair prediction and he said it wouldn't shock him if RU exceeds his expectations and gets to a bowl.

 

[Knight Shift]

Most in-depth preview of the upcoming season I've seen anywhere, by far.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...rutgers-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

Nice post, brah.

The author of this is no lightweight. He is an analytics guy:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/bill-connelly/
"And sometimes I just punt. That was the case in last year’s Rutgers preview, entitled “Rutgers might look like a Big Ten football team by 2018.”"

Interesting Take:

"If a coach’s rebuild is going to be successful, we’ve usually seen signs by the end of his third year. Eastern Michigan, for instance, was hapless for most of Chris Creighton’s first two seasons before taking a third-year leap and maintaining in year four (which included a win over Rutgers)."

Sobering Stat:
Those leaps are pretty hard to see coming in advance, though, and we don’t have any reason to assume Ash’s team will suddenly boast offensive competence — in the last nine years, RU has ranked better than 84th in Off. S&P+ just once.

Bonus question-- who was the OC the year we were better than 84th?

Got to love the 3% win probability for tOSU. Penn State is in double digits though!!!
Odd that Illinois is a higher RU win% than Buffalo and Kansas.

4.3 wins . Sign me up.

 

[BigTenRutgers]

4.3 wins . Sign me up.

Glad you enjoyed the post, but I'm definitely not okay with another 4-win season considering how easy our OOC schedule is.

 

[Knight Shift]

Glad you enjoyed the post, but I'm definitely not okay with another 4-win season considering how easy our OOC schedule is.

How about 4.3? I was not a math major, but 4.3>4.
Seriously, thought, I could live with 5 wins, but would feel unsatisfied. Six would be mission accomplished and show major progress. Anything above 6 should quiet the pitchfork and fire crowd.

 

[BigTenRutgers]

Seriously, thought, I could live with 5 wins, but would feel unsatisfied. Six would be mission accomplished and show major progress. Anything above 6 should quiet the pitchfork and fire crowd.

That's fair. Anything below 5 is a serious problem, though.

 

[Ruthinking]

I feel much better after reading this preview. I forgot how good our defensive backfield projects. I know it’s a strength but it’s nice that the writer says it could be one of the best in the conference. And I’m reassured that we seem to have some depth on the defensive line. So I’m a glass half full guy and this helped to build the case (in my mind) for 5-6 wins.

The way I see it a lot is riding on Hilliman in the early games to develop a running game to take some pressure off Sitkowski’s arm and let him develop gradually. If I’m right about needing an early season run game, it comes down to our offensive line being able to control the LOS. So the potential success of our season seems to come down to our “fatties”.

Bonus question...was it Fridge?

 

[PSUTony]

I would agree on the analysis being fair. But the soph WRs were heavily recruited and should perform (given rankings/recruiting) better than average in their 2nd year. My take has been you can't always rely on Freshmen. Now given this year I expect to see more competition and a better QB making the job a little easier.

So my expectation on Ash is 6wins. They really need to show they can win an upset and be more competitive against the top teams. 5-wins and more of the same is not progress.

 

[BigTenRutgers]

5-wins and more of the same is not progress.

I think a 5-win season would be a step in the right direction. Anything less is not.

 

[RU#1fan]

Nice post, brah.

"If a coach’s rebuild is going to be successful, we’ve usually seen signs by the end of his third year. Eastern Michigan, for instance, was hapless for most of Chris Creighton’s first two seasons before taking a third-year leap and maintaining in year four (which included a win over Rutgers)."

4.3 wins . Sign me up.

Texas St, Kansas, Buffalo, Illinois, +/- Maryland.
Pathetic.

 

[satnom]

Offensive pass game has to come alive no matter how good the defense is. We need a qb and receivers that can keep the defense honest. Think Blackshear will lead the run and Pacheco will surprise. I think if Melton, Wormley and Lewis have a breakout year with a strong TE receiving crew of Washington, Nakia Griffin and Vokolek RU will surprise. The key is qb spot with Sitkowski or Lewis. I like our online, Lbs and secondary. As a whole special teams should be improved. RU has the ingredients to surprise with 6 wins.

GO RU