Another Nor'easter 3/12-13; likely light to moderate snow...

BobbyVFan

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Jan 25, 2012
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Been discussing this threat quietly in the 3/7 storm thread and finally decided to pull the trigger on starting a new thread, even though the Monday into Tuesday storm is looking more likely to go out to sea than hit us. However, there is still some chance of getting hit by this one and the storm is almost certainly going to be a powerful one, so if we do get hit, it'll be quite impactful. Also, keep in mind that if it does hit, we'll likely have some of the same surface temp issues and precip type issues we've had the past two storms, i.e., could be some white rain or even a mix, but if intensity is great enough, it could be an impactful snowfall. Anyway, the rest of this post is essentially from my last post in that thread.

Consensus from 00Z model runs is generally out to sea, but only 100-200 miles from being a significant storm, and the UK (2nd best model) does show a modest hit for our area, and we've seen several storms this winter at this timeframe (~72 hours out - looking like a Monday into Tuesday storm) shift NW in track over the last 72 hours and end up being hits for us.

So same bottom line - not worth sending out the Bat-Signal yet, but this one still has some potential to hit us (as model errors are at least +/-150 miles at 72 hours) and it it does, it'll be very impactful, as it looks to be quite a powerful storm, and therefore bears watching. Plus, the northern jet stream energy is still in the Pacific, off the coast of BC, meaning it's not being well-sampled data-wise, which only increases model inaccuracy at this point.

Also, the 6Z models are in and the GFS is a near miss (100-150 miles from the benchmark), the NAM is way out to sea, and the RDPS (Canadian mesoscale version of the 12 km NAM) is a modest hit for 95/coast, i.e., there's still potential there, but obviously not an imminent threat.

Edit: just saw the NWS discussion, below. They're a bit more optimistic for this storm than I am, so I think it's thread time, even if it ends up being a miss, which is more likely than a hit, plus this way I don't incur the wrath of he who shall not be named, lol.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/831-winter-2017-2018-the-grand-finale-part-2/?page=12

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...


500 mb: The interactions of two digging short waves in central North
America Monday will ultimate determine our snowfall potential. The
lead short wave in Missouri midday Sunday, is modeled by the GEFS to
sharpen as it crosses the Carolinas on Monday. Meanwhile a meager
looking short wave over central Canada on Sunday amplifies
southeastward and negative tilted, heading into the Great
Lakes region Monday evening, then either ejecting the Carolinas
short wave east northeast out to sea, or absorbing it into what
should be a large closed low over NYS-New England on Tuesday.
That closed low then weakens eastward off the east coast by
Friday night with ridging to follow next weekend.

I dont think the models are cohesive here. The NAM is late to
the table on this one but am expecting much more NAM development
by this time tomorrow. For now its trying to set up an inverted
trough for Tuesday as our primary snow event. The UKMET was my
favored model since its been consistent for two cycles, and
closer to the coast, which is what I expect again this winter
with this upcoming system (SST`s offshore still above normal).
The GFS UK ECMWF all seem to be onto the rapid intensification.
That said, forecast uncertainty continues and haven`t said too
much yet about what may happen.

Monday...Cloudy. Snow or rain/snow mix changing to snow as the
boundary layer temp cools, all this to the southeast of PHL.
Amts and northwest extent yet tbd.
Pretty sure Bac and the Cleveland Browns have the same winning percentage this season. I enjoy numbers threads and compare them with other sources. Is he a snow leaner? Yes. But so what? Guy like snow. Get over it. So do a lot of people. Obviously weather is subject to change right up to the actual event. Getting a heads up on a storm, following it, and watching it evolve for 7-10 days is interesting to say the least. And much more enjoyable when Bac isn’t tryin to contradict every. single. word. Take the loss. Brush off your shoulder and bounce back next winter. We Rutgers fans are experts at that.
 

OTBOTOR

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As a snow lover (flame me) I’ve just been disappointed with all of the underwhelming results this season where I live. That’s nobody’s fault, I just wish I could do a little more skiing on the hill behind the local high school.
 

DJ Spanky

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
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I'm not jonesing for golf, but I am waiting for the weather to warm up and for all the crap to get washed off the roads so I can bring my SS out to play.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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ouch says the 12Z NAM....most of us a dusting or coating

 

RUPete

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That's good. Hopefully this holds. Just have to get through next week's weenfest if that's the case.
 

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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but the GFS which has been awful of late says this..its the snowiest....posting Kuchera as well because that is likely to factor in




 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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ouch says the 12Z NAM....most of us a dusting or coating

Yes, although the 3 km NAM, which is a better model has 1-2" for the eastern half of CNJ/NNJ and less to the west and every other model so far in the 12Z suite that I've seen (GFS, RGEM, HRDPS, and CMC; haven't seen UK and Euro comes out at 2 pm) has a general 1-3" from west to east across NNJ/CNJ, with less in SNJ, except near the coast from maybe Toms River north. These are all fairly consistent with the NWS forecast. Certainly not seeing any significant jump in either direction (more or less snow vs. NWS) at 12Z.
 

Machiavelli23

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Sure you can but stop acting like this is the only place you can get a weather forecast. Your first post was laughable.
Um, wow, like I do not know there are other sources for info. I am accessing this site through the internet btw. Are these threads one of the primary sources for weather for me out of convenience, yes it is.

So, get off my case
 

WhiteBus

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Um, wow, like I do not know there are other sources for info. I am accessing this site through the internet btw. Are these threads one of the primary sources for weather for me out of convenience, yes it is.

So, get off my case
Get off your case? Don't start with stupid replys. I didn't seek you out, it was the other way around.
 

Scarlet dollar

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Dec 7, 2008
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I enjoy both Bac's and #'s posts, but they are like two young brothers with a dollar, arguing about what candy to buy.
 
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RU848789

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Yes, although the 3 km NAM, which is a better model has 1-2" for the eastern half of CNJ/NNJ and less to the west and every other model so far in the 12Z suite that I've seen (GFS, RGEM, HRDPS, and CMC; haven't seen UK and Euro comes out at 2 pm) has a general 1-3" from west to east across NNJ/CNJ, with less in SNJ, except near the coast from maybe Toms River north. These are all fairly consistent with the NWS forecast. Certainly not seeing any significant jump in either direction (more or less snow vs. NWS) at 12Z.

And the UK and Euro trended moderately snowier at 12Z, with both indicating a general 2-4" from west to east for NNJ/CNJ (all counties north of 195 and including Monmouth and Ocean); precip goes down fairly quickly from NE to SE with Trenton at 2" and Philly at <1". I'd expect the NWS to probably stay with their totals or maybe nudge them up slightly; I also doubt they'll change any of the Advisories, except possibly adding Carbon/Monroe (Poconos). Added the maps again for reference...



 

RU848789

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Was this thread necessary??

Seriously?? Is your TV broken, no radio and the only thing you get on the internet is Scarlet Nation??

Maybe you should go back and read what you first posted. You say maybe some like you want to find out about snowstorms like this its the only place you can find this info. Just watch the news. This is common knowledge. Plus #s by his own admission is bias to bigger storms. This isn't one of them by any stretch.

Sure you can but stop acting like this is the only place you can get a weather forecast. Your first post was laughable.

Get off your case? Don't start with stupid replys. I didn't seek you out, it was the other way around.

So, WB makes a completely unnecessary and flaming post, but says Machiavelli sought him out. Delusional. And then every post after that WB attacks and badgers Machiavelli, who is simply trying to explain why he reads these threads.

WB - what is wrong with you? Seriously, wtf is wrong with you? Are you completely unable to post civilly? I get that you don't like my weather threads and have often badgered me, but why badger someone who simply answered your question? And why would you ever post in threads you think are worthless to begin with? Do you want to get banned from these threads again If this isn't the definition of trolling and baiting I don't know what is.
 

WhiteBus

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So, WB makes a completely unnecessary and flaming post, but says Machiavelli sought him out. Delusional. And then every post after that WB attacks and badgers Machiavelli, who is simply trying to explain why he reads these threads.

WB - what is wrong with you? Seriously, wtf is wrong with you? Are you completely unable to post civilly? I get that you don't like my weather threads and have often badgered me, but why badger someone who simply answered your question? And why would you ever post in threads you think are worthless to begin with? Do you want to get banned from these threads again If this isn't the definition of trolling and baiting I don't know what is.
So you admit you do want people banned. Interesting. And you of all people you should be the last person on here giving advice about acting civilly. But thanks for your advice. I see you are cranky as this thread was not needed as we are not going to have a nor'easter for our area.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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So you admit you do want people banned. Interesting. And you of all people you should be the last person on here giving advice about acting civilly. But thanks for your advice. I see you are cranky as this thread was not needed as we are not going to have a nor'easter for our area.

No, I don't want you banned - why would I? I just asked if you wanted to get banned, since you're exhibiting behavior that has gotten you banned in the past. I would never ban anyone, as I've said, especially since "debating" you is like shooting fish in a barrel. I only get cranky when provoked and your whole MO is to provoke. I will respond, though.
 

WhiteBus

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No, I don't want you banned - why would I? I just asked if you wanted to get banned, since you're exhibiting behavior that has gotten you banned in the past. I would never ban anyone, as I've said, especially since "debating" you is like shooting fish in a barrel. I only get cranky when provoked and your whole MO is to provoke. I will respond, though.
Ha. And your above post with just my quotes shows that you are the the one that likes to provoke. You like to argue as much as you like big snow storms.
Stick to telling us about the foot of snow we are getting tonight and keep up using scare tactics for a storm a week away. Which you would blast anyone for doing the same thing.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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He openly routes for higher totals. There is no "IF" about that.
I don't "route" for anything. I do root for snowfall, though, and have never hidden that fact - it's half of why I post in these threads, with the other half being a genuine desire to provide useful info to people who seem to like that kind of thing. But wanting snow doesn't affect my ability to try to provide accurate info on what's likely to happen (same is true for a ton of mets, many of whom got into the profession because they loved extreme weather as kids). There's a reason why these threads are so active and why I have 1000+ people who get my weather notes.
 

WhiteBus

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I don't "route" for anything. I do root for snowfall, though, and have never hidden that fact - it's half of why I post in these threads, with the other half being a genuine desire to provide useful info to people who seem to like that kind of thing. But wanting snow doesn't affect my ability to try to provide accurate info on what's likely to happen (same is true for a ton of mets, many of whom got into the profession because they loved extreme weather as kids). There's a reason why these threads are so active and why I have 1000+ people who get my weather notes.
And half of those posts are you arguing with someone. Not about weather. The last two weather threads that got locked because you went on another of your rants. And you can't say Im the guy who provokes fights on here. I didn't post in either of them. But you sure did.
 

Scarlet dollar

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Dec 7, 2008
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And half of those posts are you arguing with someone. Not about weather. The last two weather threads that got locked because you went on another of your rants. And you can't say Im the guy who provokes fights on here. I didn't post in either of them. But you sure did.
All the arguing is with three people. Why don't you three just ignore these threads, instead of ruining them for the hundreds of us who enjoy them?
 

BuggsyRU

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Mar 22, 2007
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Ha. And your above post with just my quotes shows that you are the the one that likes to provoke. You like to argue as much as you like big snow storms.
Stick to telling us about the foot of snow we are getting tonight and keep up using scare tactics for a storm a week away. Which you would blast anyone for doing the same thing.
Seriously dude, there is no one on this board that rubs people the wrong way more than you. You need to take a look at yourself and ask why you’re always feeling the need to argue with people.

We are tired of your ****!
 

RU4Real

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Seriously dude, there is no one on this board that rubs people the wrong way more than you. You need to take a look at yourself and ask why you’re always feeling the need to argue with people.

We are tired of your ****!

To your point, I know exactly who you're talking to, in spite of the fact that I can't see any of it because said person is on my ignore list. lol
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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And the UK and Euro trended moderately snowier at 12Z, with both indicating a general 2-4" from west to east for NNJ/CNJ (all counties north of 195 and including Monmouth and Ocean); precip goes down fairly quickly from NE to SE with Trenton at 2" and Philly at <1". I'd expect the NWS to probably stay with their totals or maybe nudge them up slightly; I also doubt they'll change any of the Advisories, except possibly adding Carbon/Monroe (Poconos). Added the maps again for reference...



Only have a minute...back to weather. So, I was wrong about this one, as the NWS decreased the snowfall maps a smidgen, but still lists the same advisories as before, for a general 2-3" of snow (with areas in the eastern half of NJ more likely to get 2-3" than the western half, which is more likely to get 1-2"). See the maps for advisories (in blue) and the snowfall below...





 

scarlet letter

Sophomore
Aug 9, 2001
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I'm scheduled to take an Amtrak from Metropark to Boston on Wednesday morning. What are the chances of delay/cancellation because of conditions on the Boston end? Thanks.
 

RUPete

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That's not too bad if it goes as predicted. Although I'm anti-snow and anti-that PB guy on the weather boards, I do appreciate the information.
 

Knight Shift

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DJ Spanky

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I'm scheduled to take an Amtrak from Metropark to Boston on Wednesday morning. What are the chances of delay/cancellation because of conditions on the Boston end? Thanks.
Might be better to take the Last Train to Clarksville! Don't Monkey around with this!

Seriously, though, it sounds like Boston will be getting 12-18 inches of snow out of this, ending Tuesday night. I know little about trains, so I don't know if this will affect train service by Wednesday morning. Is there a customer service line at Amtrak you could call?
 

MoobyCow

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Might be better to take the Last Train to Clarksville! Don't Monkey around with this!

Seriously, though, it sounds like Boston will be getting 12-18 inches of snow out of this, ending Tuesday night. I know little about trains, so I don't know if this will affect train service by Wednesday morning. Is there a customer service line at Amtrak you could call?
I know a bit about Amtrak... he's F'd.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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I'm scheduled to take an Amtrak from Metropark to Boston on Wednesday morning. What are the chances of delay/cancellation because of conditions on the Boston end? Thanks.
Even if Boston gets its forecast of 12-18" from tonight through Tuesday evening, I would think they'd have enough time to clear the rails in the 8-10 hours they'll have before sunrise on Wednesday. However, with potential blizzard conditions during the storm some cancellations are likely which would likely at least lead to delays in catching up the next day.

https://www.weather.gov/box/
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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Someone from our office is traveling in the opposite direction, but leaving tomorrow morning from Providence to go to Metropark.
No they're not. Or at least they're nuts if they do, with a raging snowstorm (a foot of snow likely) all day and possible blizzard conditons for RI and most of eastern CT, if not all of CT.