Another Nor'easter 3/12-13; likely light to moderate snow...
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Their hurt will pale in comparison to the football game threads.
Especially if we get freaking blasted on the field for a bunch of our games again
There goes bac making **** up again. For the 2/17 event, which was the only 3-6" event in all of February, SW Somerset got about 3-4" according to the map below and you got about 4" as per your own post on the event. You might not want to make stuff up when there's an actual record of what you've posted. Got any other busts you'd like to elaborate on that I didn't?
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ght-sunday-2-17-18.140117/page-8#post-3185077
Dude, this is not an issue: we get blasted at the tailgate before even going in.
Hey, you can do what you want, but making broad claims you can't back up and then saying you don't have time to back them up, but to take your word for it isn't quite fair, IMO. The weather people post maps before and after every storm, so it's pretty simple to evaluate them and they often (but not always) discuss them in their discussions (at least the NWS does and that's who I use all the time - and I post the same info for them).
There goes bac making **** up again. For the 2/17 event, which was the only 3-6" event in all of February, SW Somerset got about 3-4" according to the map below and you got about 4" as per your own post on the event. You might not want to make stuff up when there's an actual record of what you've posted. Got any other busts you'd like to elaborate on that I didn't?
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ght-sunday-2-17-18.140117/page-8#post-3185077
Im referring to the non event from 3/2
From March 2....how am I making things up..yeah it wasnt 3-6 but it was 2-3 and even you were honking on snow in that thread questioning why Mt Holly wasnt raising amounts...I got all of zero
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...
NJZ010-015-PAZ061-103>106-030300-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Allentown,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches at elevations above 700
feet.
* WHERE...Somerset and Mercer Counties in central New Jersey and
Lehigh, Montgomery and Bucks Counties in eastern Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate to heavy at times
through sunset. The snow will gradually taper off from west to
east this evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow had initially struggled
to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
accumulate on untreated secondary roads, bridges and overpasses
especially after sunset and during bursts of heavier snow. Plan
on slippery travel conditions, including for the evening
commute.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...
NJZ010-015-PAZ061-103>106-030300-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Trenton, Allentown,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
209 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with
locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches at elevations above 700
feet.
* WHERE...Somerset and Mercer Counties in central New Jersey and
Lehigh, Montgomery and Bucks Counties in eastern Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...Wet snow will continue to be moderate to heavy at times
through sunset. The snow will gradually taper off from west to
east this evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although the snow had initially struggled
to accumulate on paved surfaces due to a warm ground,
temperatures have lowered to near freezing, allowing snow to
accumulate on untreated secondary roads, bridges and overpasses
especially after sunset and during bursts of heavier snow. Plan
on slippery travel conditions, including for the evening
commute.
this is from 3/1 and then a post from Numbers 3/2 early morning
Just got back from a nice evening in Jersey City (Liberty House restaurant for an RU chem eng'g alumni party - gorgeous views of the Manhattan skyline and great food), then figured why not go to the Garden and catch the RU game simply a huge win over Indiana - #3 Purdue tomorrow night, yikes.
Anyway, I've been completely away from all weather info since 6 pm and it was a nice surprise to come home to the Euro moving very much towards the consistently fairly snowy NAM (and pretty snowy HRDPS) for the I-95 corridor (all of them are showing 5-10" for Philly to NYC. And for what seems like days now, the GFS and CMC continue to show no snow for the 95 corridor or the coast.
As I've mentioned several times most of the pros on 33andrain think the GFS and CMC are wrong, since they're lower resolution, which usually means they don't handle dynamic, highly convective systems like this well (and their thermal fields have been way off so far). Would love to get 6" or more, although not counting on it, per se, since so much can go wrong with this fragile setup. I'm still thinking 1-3: for Philly to NYC and places near/along 95 and the coast, but am becoming more optimistic we might get the 3-6" that News12NJ, who are usually pretty conservative are calling for. I'll also be amazed if the NWS doesn't at least put the 95 corridor down for 1-3" in their 4 am update, instead of the zilch they have now.
One more thing that really should be stressed is the likelihood of blizzard conditions wherever it ends up snowing. With the wind warnings and advisories up, all it will take is heavy snow with <1/4 mile visibility, which this storm will certainly have the power to generate, to get blizzard conditions. Even if many places only get a few hours and maybe an inch or two of snow, they will likely have blizzard conditions for much of that time On a Friday afternoon, that is a recipe for disaster, especially when I think most people will go to work assuming it's just a big rainstorm. We'll find out soon.
4:30 am edit: Very surprised NWS didn't up totals for 95 and the coast - only significant snow well NW, as per the maps. They did acknowledge how far off they could end up being though, in the discussion below which makes me wonder even more why they didn't hedge their bets a bit and at least go with an inch or two. Multiple pros on the weather boards criticizing the NWS (which is pretty unusual) for completely discounting the Euro and the high res models like the NAM and HRDPS, which all show 5-10" for the 95 corridor and even towards the coast (and much more inland).
If they're right everyone will owe them an apology, but if they're wrong, they'll have really dropped the ball when they could at least be showing some snow. Anyway, the maps are up below. Here's the thing - if the NWS is wrong and we get even a modest 2-4" snowfall for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and most of NJ (not even the 5-10" amounts we're seeing on the Euro, NAM and HRDPS), that snow is going to fall in the afternoon and produce blizzard or near blizzard conditions smack dab in the middle of a rush hour that people thought would be just rainy and windy. That's a recipe for disaster on the roads. Even if they don't think a few inches will fall they should show it, just in case they're wrong, so that people are aware of the risk - it's only a minor issue to predict 1-3" and get none, whereas from a public risk perspective, it's a major miss to predict nothing and get several or even a few inches of snow. I just don't get the logic.
Just got back from a nice evening in Jersey City (Liberty House restaurant for an RU chem eng'g alumni party - gorgeous views of the Manhattan skyline and great food), then figured why not go to the Garden and catch the RU game simply a huge win over Indiana - #3 Purdue tomorrow night, yikes.
Anyway, I've been completely away from all weather info since 6 pm and it was a nice surprise to come home to the Euro moving very much towards the consistently fairly snowy NAM (and pretty snowy HRDPS) for the I-95 corridor (all of them are showing 5-10" for Philly to NYC. And for what seems like days now, the GFS and CMC continue to show no snow for the 95 corridor or the coast.
As I've mentioned several times most of the pros on 33andrain think the GFS and CMC are wrong, since they're lower resolution, which usually means they don't handle dynamic, highly convective systems like this well (and their thermal fields have been way off so far). Would love to get 6" or more, although not counting on it, per se, since so much can go wrong with this fragile setup. I'm still thinking 1-3: for Philly to NYC and places near/along 95 and the coast, but am becoming more optimistic we might get the 3-6" that News12NJ, who are usually pretty conservative are calling for. I'll also be amazed if the NWS doesn't at least put the 95 corridor down for 1-3" in their 4 am update, instead of the zilch they have now.
One more thing that really should be stressed is the likelihood of blizzard conditions wherever it ends up snowing. With the wind warnings and advisories up, all it will take is heavy snow with <1/4 mile visibility, which this storm will certainly have the power to generate, to get blizzard conditions. Even if many places only get a few hours and maybe an inch or two of snow, they will likely have blizzard conditions for much of that time On a Friday afternoon, that is a recipe for disaster, especially when I think most people will go to work assuming it's just a big rainstorm. We'll find out soon.
4:30 am edit: Very surprised NWS didn't up totals for 95 and the coast - only significant snow well NW, as per the maps. They did acknowledge how far off they could end up being though, in the discussion below which makes me wonder even more why they didn't hedge their bets a bit and at least go with an inch or two. Multiple pros on the weather boards criticizing the NWS (which is pretty unusual) for completely discounting the Euro and the high res models like the NAM and HRDPS, which all show 5-10" for the 95 corridor and even towards the coast (and much more inland).
If they're right everyone will owe them an apology, but if they're wrong, they'll have really dropped the ball when they could at least be showing some snow. Anyway, the maps are up below. Here's the thing - if the NWS is wrong and we get even a modest 2-4" snowfall for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and most of NJ (not even the 5-10" amounts we're seeing on the Euro, NAM and HRDPS), that snow is going to fall in the afternoon and produce blizzard or near blizzard conditions smack dab in the middle of a rush hour that people thought would be just rainy and windy. That's a recipe for disaster on the roads. Even if they don't think a few inches will fall they should show it, just in case they're wrong, so that people are aware of the risk - it's only a minor issue to predict 1-3" and get none, whereas from a public risk perspective, it's a major miss to predict nothing and get several or even a few inches of snow. I just don't get the logic.
Sheeze, bac, you bicker like a little girl. We got 6 inches out of that storm.
The NWS called for 0-1" for that storm for you and me and everyone south of 80 up until the morning of the event (which I always thought was too low - I thought 1-3" was a better call and I was right). Then they played a bit of catch-up, as some very heavy bands set up in unexpected locations (like t-storms) that were impossible to predict, so they raised the predictions for your area to 2-3" around noon with the storm raging.
Most people in southern Somerset got 1" or less, as per the map and you apparently got none (I got about 1/2"), whereas many people within 5-10 miles from you in NW Mercer, E Hunterdon and N Somerset all got 1-2" of snow and 15+ miles away some folks got 3-5".
If you want to call that a bust, since it busted for a fairly small area have at it, but that one was impossible to get right when you look at what actually fell. Nobody was going to predict 4-8" SW of Philly or 2-5" in Western Monmouth and NJ across from Philly and <1" where you were or parts of Middlesex and much of NE NJ.
you can call it whatever you want it but that was a bust for somerset, hunterdon, middlesex, Union, Mercer and probably NYC as well although I dont know what they wounf up with. Your posts earlier in the day were honking on even more threatening snows. And they certainly busted in PA as they werent even suppose to get that. That you still are arguing that March of 2017 wasnt a bust because of "mass" pretty much proves you are not willing to relent on busts...and the past several years had quite a few of them....but yes they are quickly forgotten and swept under the rug and forecaster move on
so why dont we drop the pettiness and get back to discussing this storm
so why dont we drop the pettiness and get back to discussing this storm
My bad on the 2/17 event, but then again, maybe be more specific (9 days vs. 22 days ago - I picked the wrong one). And you keep picking at every little thing I post. I leave your posts alone for the most part unless you're picking a fight about some minor issue and then I respond. To call the 3/2 event a "bust" to me is extraodinarily unfair, as that storm would've been impossible for anyone to predict, much like summertime t-storms that are hit/miss and nobody says boo about it, but when it's snow and it's off people freak out.
Well you'll be happy to know that PB has thrown in the towel on major snows for NJ/NYC (light to moderate is all he sees now). Assuming the rest of the 00Z guidance follows the NAM, which shows minor snows for NJ (1-2" north of 78, including NYC and <1" for most of CNJ, but 6" or more for E LI and New Eng, where this may well be a blizzard), I would completely agree and the focus would then be on whether we get fairly minor snows or maybe moderate (2-4") snows.
By the way, he can be fairly arrogant (too sure he's right, which is not a good look in meteorology, when it's so easy to be wrong), but you have to give him credit on being on top of this early March pattern for weeks, along with several others. He also never wavered on getting big storms for the area on 3/2 and 3/7, which did hit, even if not providing big snows for everyone - they were certainly big winter storms, though - and pretty much everyone in the region now has above normal snowfall for the entire month of March (which I even won $100 on), which is pretty impressive. And even if this 3rd storm isn't big for NJ/NYC it's still going to be a big snowstorm not far from here, so calling that weeks ago is still pretty good.
Well after the NAM, the rest of the 00Z models trended slightly snowier than they were earlier, including the Euro (with 1-2" for most of CNJ/NNJ and 2-3" N of 80 and for NYC), with a general consensus of 1-3" for most of CNJ/NNJ, with up to 4" in some models near the coast (N of 195) and near NYC, east of the TPK. Could easily see predictions of 1-2" for the western 1/3 of CNJ/NNJ and E PA, with 2-4" for the eastern 2/3, with the 4" amounts in the far eastern parts of NJ.
Don't see the NWS changing their forecast amounts much - maybe just shaving them down a bit on the western part of the area. Will likely see advisories go up for the eastern half or 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ - maybe for counties N of 195, excluding Mercer, Hunterdon and Warren (Sussex is far enough north to get in on the 3" or more snows). Might also exclude Morris and Somerset, too. And might include Ocean in the advisory as the criterion there is only 2" vs 3" for all the counties N of 195.
I'd say a pretty minor snowfall (1" or less for most, maybe 2" in eastern sections) is still possible, as is a solid advisory kind of snowfall (3-5" for most and up to 6" in far eastern sections), but I don't think a snowfall of more than 6" is really on the table - it's not impossible, but would be a huge surprise at this point, just 24 hours out.
And your basketball predictions are never ever wrong, jeeze let it go. You actually said Syracuse would be left out and they got in. Last time I trust you....
Sure you can but stop acting like this is the only place you can get a weather forecast. Your first post was laughable.
As expected, the NWS Philly didn't change their forecast amounts much, but did shave them down a bit on the western part of the area (eastern PA and PA/NJ SW of Trenton or so). And they did issue Advisories for Monday evening through Tuesday morning's rush hour for 2-3" of snow from Monmouth to Mercer and all counties north of there in NJ; this did include Mercer, Hunterdon and Warren, which I thought might be left out of the Advisories and it included Ocean (the criterion there is only 2" vs 3" for all the counties N of 195). Areas in E PA, SE PA and most of SNJ are all forecast to get an inch or so. With snow falling at night, melting should be minimal, which means there could be accumulation on untreated roads.
And the NWS in NYC has advisories up for NE NJ (Union up through Bergen/Passaic), NYC, and the Hudson Valley for a general 3-4" of snow and for Nassau and western CT for 4-5" of snow; Suffolk and eastern CT have Warnings up for 5-8" of snow. The 6Z models that have come out since the NWS issued these maps/advisories largely support their forecast (especially the NAM and GFS, which increased snowfall from <1" to 2" for much of CNJ/NNJ to a general 1-3" from west to east in CNJ/NNJ).
I'd still say a pretty minor snowfall (1" or less for most, maybe 2" in eastern sections) is still possible, as is a solid advisory kind of snowfall (3-5" for most and up to 6" in far eastern sections in Nj), but I don't think a snowfall of more than 6" is really on the table - it's not impossible, but would be a huge surprise at this point, just 18 hours out from the 6Z models (1 am EST data input) - but if we don't see changes in the 00Z models, then the time is likely past for any significant shifts in either direction (less or more snow).
The funny thing is that normally this would be a somewhat noteworthy snowfall this late in the season, but given the potential this storm has and will likely deliver to E LI and New England, it seems a bit like a dud. And don't look now, but several models are showing another potential snowstorm in about 8 days, as the blocking (-NAO) pattern continues.
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I love these threads but this weather sucks!! I want to play golf already when the hell is any warm weather coming?!!!
As expected, the NWS Philly didn't change their forecast amounts much, but did shave them down a bit on the western part of the area (eastern PA and PA/NJ SW of Trenton or so). And they did issue Advisories for Monday evening through Tuesday morning's rush hour for 2-3" of snow for all of NJ, from Monmouth to Mercer and all counties north of there; this did include Mercer, Hunterdon and Warren, which I thought might be left out of the Advisories and it included Ocean (the criterion there is only 2" vs 3" for all the counties N of 195). Areas in E PA, SE PA and most of SNJ are all forecast to get an inch or so. With snow falling at night, melting should be minimal, which means there could be accumulation on untreated roads.
And the NWS in NYC has advisories up for NE NJ (Union up through Bergen/Passaic), NYC, and the Hudson Valley for a general 3-4" of snow and for Nassau and western CT for 4-5" of snow; Suffolk and eastern CT have Warnings up for 5-8" of snow. The 6Z models that have come out since the NWS issued these maps/advisories largely support their forecast (especially the NAM and GFS, which increased snowfall from <1" to 2" for much of CNJ/NNJ to a general 1-3" from west to east in CNJ/NNJ).
I'd still say a pretty minor snowfall (1" or less for most, maybe 2" in eastern sections) is still possible, as is a solid advisory kind of snowfall (3-5" for most and up to 6" in far eastern sections in Nj), but I don't think a snowfall of more than 6" is really on the table - it's not impossible, but would be a huge surprise at this point, just 18 hours out from the 6Z models (1 am EST data input) - but if we don't see changes in the 00Z models, then the time is likely past for any significant shifts in either direction (less or more snow).
The funny thing is that normally this would be a somewhat noteworthy snowfall this late in the season, but given the potential this storm has and will likely deliver to E LI and New England, it seems a bit like a dud. And don't look now, but several models are showing another potential snowstorm in about 8 days, as the blocking (-NAO) pattern continues.
Not this week and probably not next week, especially with the potential for another winter storm early next week - way too far out to worry about, but the point is the pattern is still a colder than normal one with the chance for wintry precip. I don't usually speculate much beyond 2 weeks, but lots of chatter about if finally warming up by the end of March.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/new-jersey-snow-cover.htm
Allentown, PA area has no snow. there are a few courses out that way.
I know I saw people playing golf in Eatontown yesterday. As an aside I am in North Carolina and it is cold and rainy here so no golf here either for me!!
I am dying to get the sticks out too. Looks like early April at best with all this cold weather in the forecast and snow on the golf course.
Does your wife hang out at the Hillsborough deli? (sorry)
I check these threads every weather event. I appreciate #s mostly for them and have relied on them for years.
If you don't find them useful, dont click .
If you don't find them useful, dont click .
I like reading #'s weather threads. I think we all know IF he's going to err it's going to be on the high side. I concern myself with tidal flooding more than whether it'll be 3" or 6" of snow with these storms. I follow the local OEM, NWS, tide charts, and my own experience for that.
He openly routes for higher totals. There is no "IF" about that.
yes looking mainly like a minor at best event, we will see, the snow is falling mainly at night but its over a long duration with some breaks of no precip for parts of the state so the rates figure to be on the light side so that could impact how much accumulates on any treated surface....further west you go with this the less snow you will encounter
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