Another Nor'easter 3/12-13; likely light to moderate snow...
- Thread starter RU848789
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Yes. some of us would like to find out about snowstorms that might have an impact on our daily lives and routines
Models last night generally showing a 1-3" event for most of the Philly to NYC corridor, but the NWS is thinking those amounts are a little underdone, as they expected the track to move a little NW of the 0Z models' tracks, as they have all winter in the 24-48 hour timeframe, so the snowfall maps below, are a little more than the models generally showed. And the 6Z models have upped snowfall amounts as they expected, so that's looking like a good call. So, as per the NWS, looking like a 2-4" event for about all of the Philly-NYC corridor and all of NJ, with the 4" amounts as one nears the coast and NYC. And more like a 3-6" event from NYC eastward into CT/LI. Maps are below.Back to the models, the 12Z Euro and CMC both show light (1-2") to moderate (2-3") of snow for much of the area, so overall, the threat looks to be light to moderate, as currently modeled.
However, there are indications we could get more than that - the 3 km high resolution 18Z NAM is showing an area-wide 4-8" by hour 60 (1 am Tuesday) and the storm is nowhere near over at that point. While the 12 km (not high res) NAM is only showing 2-4" for the area after 84 hours. Huge discrepancy and for the same model core, but the reason is likely the better way the high res handles vertical velocities and convection, which are the key to generating high snowfall rates.
Long way to go still, so need to buy milk and bread yet, but we're very likely going to get some snow now, IMO. How much is the question. And it's the first model of the 18Z suite out (only a couple other models run at 18Z), so we'll need to wait until tonight's 00Z model runs to know if the NAM is a blip or is leading the way.
Edit: the 18Z GFS is hot off the presses and shows a generally light snowfall, as the northern and southern pieces of energy phase too late, leaving the storm to strengthen after our latitude, hammering S/E New England. It's never easy...
One other point worth noting. This has moved from a Monday morning through evening storm to a Monday night/Tuesday morning storm, as it has slowed down on the models. That means snowfall would be able to accumulate without any melting from the strengthening March sun, such that once snow accumulates on surfaces, including roads, which it will, if intensity is there, we'll see much closer to 10:1 ratio snowfalls.
Both NWS offices said there will be probable Advisories for much of their areas and that this will be a colder, fluffier snow than Wednesday's with temps generally at or a few degrees below freezing for most of the storm, which will occur largely while it's dark, between about 5 pm Monday and 7 am Tuesday, which will limit melting and lead to accumulations on untreated surfaces. At this point, the Mon evening commute will probably be ok, while the Tues am commute could be snowy.
As I had mentioned above, the 6Z models are generally showing more snow than the NWS forecasts, which were made before those models came out in the 4-6 am timeframe. So, there's potential for more like a 3-6"/4-8" event for Philly to NYC (and a 4-8"/6-10" event from NYC eastward), if the 3 km high-resolution NAM or the RDPS or the high res Canadian (HRDPS) is right, or less, like 1-3" if the GFS/12 km NAM is right, but the GFS hasn't been right all winter, lol. And there is still a chance (1 in 4?) of a major (major is 8" or more to me) snowstorm, if things come together in a certain way. Stay tuned. Also, really good write-up by the NWS, below.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
420 AM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Hazards: probable winter weather advisories for portions of the
area in the 18z Mon-18z-Tue time frame for I78 north and maybe
in the Philly-Wilmington stretch Monday night. Gale watches
have posted. A coastal flood advisory may be needed for the
Tuesday 7-9 AM high tide cycle along the Atlantic coasts of NJ
and DE.
Snow type should be colder and more powdery than the previous
two storms as this is setting up as a classic winter nor`easter
with blocking holding cold high pressure in place to our north
and phasing allowing the explosive development of a ~970mb sfc
low as it passes east of Cape Cod Tuesday morning.
The big question for our area...does it come close enough for a
substantial event, or just sort of graze us. Even though our
Sunday morning forecast is relatively tame compared to last
Wednesday, we advise continuing to monitor. Below explains why.
Model of choice: we`re looking for global models to trend a
little west of the current 00z/11th fcst cycles. Normally I buy
into the NAM and NAMNEST for mid Atlantic cyclogenesis but only
when it appears the NAM is onto the pattern with reasonable
upper level and sfc evolution. Yesterdays 12z and 18z cycles
looked reasonable but the 00z/11 cycle dropped the lead short
wave so far south, deferring to a much stronger northern Sw,
that I did not think this was realistic. I could be wrong but I
anticipate the NAM to revert to a more energetic closer to the
coast solution in the next couple of cycles and once that
happens, then we need to pay closer attention to the 3KM
NAMNEST.
There still can be tracking issues but overall I think weighting
the NAM ECMWF and GFS in that order will probably yield the
best result.
Impacts: Snow falling at night will have a much better chance of
accumulating on roads so that residents and travelers early Tuesday
morning should be greeted by a fresh cover of snow, and probably
some slippery conditions. Adverse impacts could develop Monday
afternoon since snow growth-fgen forcing looks fairly robust
vcnty I95 and the higher terrain can accumulate easier due to
the colder than normal late winter temperatures.
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Seriously?? Is your TV broken, no radio and the only thing you get on the internet is Scarlet Nation??
If you want to talk some football there’s an 11 page thread on Chris Ash’s vision.
And, of course, to make this more challenging, the 12Z 12 km NAM shows very little snow for NJ except for maybe 1-2" towards the coast, as the low is further offshore, while the 3 km, high resolution NAM shows 1-3" for most of NJ and 3-5" towards the coast. The 12Z RGEM (mesoscale, like the 12 km NAM) is similar to the 3 km NAM, as is the 12Z GFS. All of these models show more snow from NYC eastward (with 3-5" in the City), especially on LI and eastern LI and SE New England being crushed with 8-14" or more of snow.
This is looking like a real nailbiter for the Philly to NYC corridor between a minor (1-2") to maybe moderate event (2-4"), either of which is reasonably likely, to a significant (4" or more) or major event (8" or more), which are looking unlikely now, but are still possible (and not 1% possible, but more like 10-20%), especially since the SREFs (short range ensembles) are showing 6" or more for our area. Still looking like the bulk of whatever falls will be between 7 pm Mon and 7 am Tues, meaning little melting concerns,assuming temps around 32F, so the Tues am commute will likely be impacted for non-treated roads.
Edit: 12Z CMC looks similar to the GFS, i.e. 1-2" for most of NJ/Philly/E PA and 2-4" near the NJ coast and for NYC and far eastern NJ bordering NY (i.e., east of the TPK from Woodbridge to the GWB and more east of NYC.
Edit again: The high res 12Z Canadian, HRDPS, just came in and crushes 95 and east with 6-12" of snow and hits NW of 95 with 4-8". This is why the jury is still out on how much snow we will get.
This is looking like a real nailbiter for the Philly to NYC corridor between a minor (1-2") to maybe moderate event (2-4"), either of which is reasonably likely, to a significant (4" or more) or major event (8" or more), which are looking unlikely now, but are still possible (and not 1% possible, but more like 10-20%), especially since the SREFs (short range ensembles) are showing 6" or more for our area. Still looking like the bulk of whatever falls will be between 7 pm Mon and 7 am Tues, meaning little melting concerns,assuming temps around 32F, so the Tues am commute will likely be impacted for non-treated roads.
Edit: 12Z CMC looks similar to the GFS, i.e. 1-2" for most of NJ/Philly/E PA and 2-4" near the NJ coast and for NYC and far eastern NJ bordering NY (i.e., east of the TPK from Woodbridge to the GWB and more east of NYC.
Edit again: The high res 12Z Canadian, HRDPS, just came in and crushes 95 and east with 6-12" of snow and hits NW of 95 with 4-8". This is why the jury is still out on how much snow we will get.
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Someone should start at thread on Ash's hearing.
Yes, right now, the model consensus is for the storm to pass our latitude 50-75 miles too far SE to give NJ major snows (just 1-3/2-4" type amounts right now) and then heading more northward and hammering central/eastern LI and SE New England with big snows. The interesting thing is that the models are showing a stronger storm than last night, but less snow due to track. However, as the NWS pros and a bunch of pros on 33andrain are pointing out, the tendency all winter has been for the models to shift a bit NW in the last 24-36 hours before an event and the 12Z model runs are 36 hours before the start of the event. Which is why people can't "celebrate" (or lament) the current model runs too much yet. Hope that helps.
Very likely a foot or more from RI through Maine and maybe as far SE as central LI and as far west as the CT River Valley.
Wait, News 12 NJ guy yesterday said NJ will miss out on snow, it was going South.
Why did he lie?
Why did he lie?
Getting weather forecasts from them is like going to a dentist to treat a broken bone. Last year I had a 20 minute conversation with one of their "mets" about weather at an event we were both at and this guy clearly knew less than I did and that's not good.
based on what the models were spitting out, is he wrong?
whether it trends nw is one thing but based on outputs and some of the earlier posts in this thread I expected a major significant snowfall now Im finding out that the models are not actually spitting out more than minor amounts..thats what I mean when I say your bias is showing and the 33 and rain board is way overdoing it trying to find ways for snow, thank god there are a few that are objective....PBGFI calling for a blizzard...lmao
PB is dangerous because he knows his stuff enough to seem credible, but in reality, he's the weeniest of weens.
i am objective, i believe, since i am a scientist and have a business that gets affected by snow. so I lose money when it snows. that being said, I find #'s info to be scientifically objective with a slight snow bias, and I find you, bac to be fairly biased against the science that provides evidence in favor of snow.
What is your problem? You're becoming insufferable. What he said yesterday was clearly wrong and you know it. Multiple models yesterday had light to moderate snows and the friggin' NWS had a snowfall map at 3 pm yesterday which showed area wide 2-3" snowfalls - that is not at all a complete miss.
And what have I said today that indicates a major snowfall? Nothing. I've simply reported the models continuing with light to moderate snowfall and one model showing major snow and highlighting that as a risk on the upside, but also highlighting it could be only a light snowfall. And what does PB have to do with anything I've posted? Again, nothing. I may like snow, but I don't bias my posts based on that. You hate snow and are quite biased in your posting on it. This is just one more example.
And yes, the 12Z Euro just came in with just about a complete miss out to sea (maybe an inch or two N of 78 and <1" between 195 and 78). That's big as the Euro is still the best model...but it has not had a great track record with snowstorms this winter for reasons I can only guess at.
Finally, we're still 36 hours out and we've seen significant changes from 36 hours out mulitiple times this year - so I imagine the NWS will likely cut back slightly on their forecasts from this morning (maybe more 1-3" instead of 2-3/4"), but isn't going to go to zero just because of one Euro run. It's certainly looking minor to at most moderate right now, while none and major are still on the table. That's where we are.
Absolutely ok - even if the small chance of a major storm is realized, it would be over by Tuesday late morning.
Thanks. I try really hard to not let my love of snow cause me to be biased in what I report (because, as I've said before, I report, I don't make forecasts - I'm not a met - but I could easily bias what I report if I were so inclined), but I imagine it happens a bit on occasion. We agree on bac.
what, I can't not like to get some info from some knowledgeable posters and learn more about how weather works at the same time??
Can't argue too much with that, for CNJ, which is their area, although I'd go a little higher. Based on the 12Z models, I'd probably go with 1-2" for most, with up to 3" in extreme NE NJ bordering NY/NYC and near the coast, north of 195. If we see similar outcomes with tonight's 00Z models, then it's probably time to throw in the towel on more than a few inches.
I know, right? I learn tons from other posters about all kinds of topics here. Never understood people who don't care for a topic and then feel the need to tell everyone that. I simply won't post about that topic. Ignoring threads is really easy.
it does not look like the jet streams are going to play nice for snow in cnj
Latest note on this...gotta run...no NWS-NYC map yet...
So the Monday into Tuesday storm is looking highly uncertain, which has become an annoying situation all winter for most storms. Most of today’s 12Z models (7 am data input) are showing a light (1-2”) to moderate (2-4”) snowfall for most of the Philly to NYC area, with most of the snow falling between 6 pm Monday and 8 am Tuesday, meaning minimal melting, such that it’s quite possible that the Tuesday morning commute is a snowy one. However, the Euro, still the best model (but wrong several times this winter), is showing nearly a complete whiff, while the HRDPS (high resolution model) is showing a major snowstorm (6-12”) for the area. The NWS snowfall maps surprisingly (given the Euro especially) even went up a little bit since this morning and are below. Worth noting that watches are up for all of LI and most of eastern New England from CT to ME for at least 6-12” of snow.
In addition, we're still 36 hours out (from the 12Z models initialization) and we've seen significant changes from 36 hours out mulitiple times this year and the changes we’d need to see in the consensus models to have them move from light to moderate to a whiff or to a major snowfall (+/-50-75 miles in track) are within the range of track errors we’ve seen at this range this winter. The NWS even had a write-up last night talking about the seemingly winter-long pattern for the models to move the track NW significantly in the 24-36 hours before an event: “Another troubling issue is the western trend most models have exhibited with storms in the recent past, and a similar trend cannot be discounted this time around.” Needless to say, this is a low confidence forecast. That's where we are.
Edit: adding the NWS-NYC map for completeness. A little surprised they didn't back off a bit for the NYC/NENJ area, although I can see why they upped LI and put them under watches.
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SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***Next Coastal Storm Threat***
The main story for this period will be the next major east coast
storm which is progged to move from off the southeast coast early
Monday to a position south of Cape Cod by early Tuesday
impacting the area with at least some rain, snow and wind. This
will be another rapidly intensifying storm system carrying
significant moisture and strong winds. While there is still
uncertainty regarding this storms impact on the forecast area,
forecast models have begun to come into better agreement with
the favored track to our east likely sparing the area the very
heaviest precip so no Winter Storm Watch at this point. However,
it will be close and a shift westward is still possible and
could still bring heavy snow into the area.
In terms of the details, Monday starts off dry with clouds quickly
lowering and thickening. As the low moves north, expect precip to
break out south to north near midday into the afternoon. Temps aloft
will be cold enough for snow,however diurnal heating will help
surface temps get well into the 30s to near 40 so generally
expect mainly rain during the day from around I-95 S/E with some
rain/snow mix farther north and west...especially over the
higher terrain where it could be mainly snow. These areas could
see some minor accumulation by evening.
By Monday evening, rapidly intensifying low will be located
east of Cape Hatteras and moving northeast. At this time,
heavier precip will begin to move up the coast and adjacent
waters. The loss of daytime heating along with evap cooling will
lead to any rain or rain/snow mix changing to mainly snow from
NW to SE around and after 0z. Again, the exact track the low
takes along with surface temps (which will remain marginal) will
determine how much snowfall occurs and since there is still
uncertainty in this, forecast confidence is still not high
regarding amounts. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with
the NAM now matching it fairly closely and the GEM Regional now
following fairly close as well. Forecast was weighted heavily on
these models and less on Euro. The strong lift in the upper
levels along with mid level F-gen forcing will result in bands
of heavy precip that will likely be set up off shore but model
consensus still suggests a quarter to half inch of QPF likely
with this storm over roughly the eastern half of CWA. With the
transition from any rain to all snow Monday evening this should
yield a 2 to 4 inch snowfall by Tuesday mainly north and east of
a Philly to Atlantic City line...highest amounts likely over
higher terrain of N and NW NJ through Morris, Sussex, Warren
Counties as well as into the southern Poconos. Remaining areas
should see a coating up to a couple inches.
By late Monday night into Tuesday morning, low continues to pull
away with snow tapering off from SW to NE. However N/NW winds will
be strengthening so blowing snow may become an issue for the Tuesday
morning commute even though snow will be winding down. The remainder
of Tuesday will be blustery and cool with considerable cloud cover
and scattered rain/snow showers in the storm`s wake. Highs will
range from the 30s across the southern Poconos and northern
***Next Coastal Storm Threat***
The main story for this period will be the next major east coast
storm which is progged to move from off the southeast coast early
Monday to a position south of Cape Cod by early Tuesday
impacting the area with at least some rain, snow and wind. This
will be another rapidly intensifying storm system carrying
significant moisture and strong winds. While there is still
uncertainty regarding this storms impact on the forecast area,
forecast models have begun to come into better agreement with
the favored track to our east likely sparing the area the very
heaviest precip so no Winter Storm Watch at this point. However,
it will be close and a shift westward is still possible and
could still bring heavy snow into the area.
In terms of the details, Monday starts off dry with clouds quickly
lowering and thickening. As the low moves north, expect precip to
break out south to north near midday into the afternoon. Temps aloft
will be cold enough for snow,however diurnal heating will help
surface temps get well into the 30s to near 40 so generally
expect mainly rain during the day from around I-95 S/E with some
rain/snow mix farther north and west...especially over the
higher terrain where it could be mainly snow. These areas could
see some minor accumulation by evening.
By Monday evening, rapidly intensifying low will be located
east of Cape Hatteras and moving northeast. At this time,
heavier precip will begin to move up the coast and adjacent
waters. The loss of daytime heating along with evap cooling will
lead to any rain or rain/snow mix changing to mainly snow from
NW to SE around and after 0z. Again, the exact track the low
takes along with surface temps (which will remain marginal) will
determine how much snowfall occurs and since there is still
uncertainty in this, forecast confidence is still not high
regarding amounts. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with
the NAM now matching it fairly closely and the GEM Regional now
following fairly close as well. Forecast was weighted heavily on
these models and less on Euro. The strong lift in the upper
levels along with mid level F-gen forcing will result in bands
of heavy precip that will likely be set up off shore but model
consensus still suggests a quarter to half inch of QPF likely
with this storm over roughly the eastern half of CWA. With the
transition from any rain to all snow Monday evening this should
yield a 2 to 4 inch snowfall by Tuesday mainly north and east of
a Philly to Atlantic City line...highest amounts likely over
higher terrain of N and NW NJ through Morris, Sussex, Warren
Counties as well as into the southern Poconos. Remaining areas
should see a coating up to a couple inches.
By late Monday night into Tuesday morning, low continues to pull
away with snow tapering off from SW to NE. However N/NW winds will
be strengthening so blowing snow may become an issue for the Tuesday
morning commute even though snow will be winding down. The remainder
of Tuesday will be blustery and cool with considerable cloud cover
and scattered rain/snow showers in the storm`s wake. Highs will
range from the 30s across the southern Poconos and northern
"Needless to say, this is a low confidence forecast. That's where we are."
Arent they all? Over the past year and a half we've had at least 4 significant (>/= 6" snow) events predicted here in De. All were complete busts with a grand total of a couple inches.
Arent they all? Over the past year and a half we've had at least 4 significant (>/= 6" snow) events predicted here in De. All were complete busts with a grand total of a couple inches.
Maybe you should go back and read what you first posted. You say maybe some like you want to find out about snowstorms like this its the only place you can find this info. Just watch the news. This is common knowledge. Plus #s by his own admission is bias to bigger storms. This isn't one of them by any stretch.
Name these 4, because I only count 1 major bust over the past two winters - that's the 3/14 storm where 12-20" of snow was forecast and most locations in CNJ and NENJ got 4-8" then 2-3" of sleet (wasn't a major bust IMO, as the amount of frozen precip was spot on vs. what was forecast, and it had the same impact on roads and snow removal, but it was wrong in not being all snow); many areas N/W did get the 12-20" though.
Maybe you're counting this past storm where the NYC/NE NJ area did bust low (4-5" vs the 8-12" forecast), but probably 75% of the area got pretty close to what was forecast (and some areas overperformed); it was nowhere near a major bust like Jan-15, though, where 90% of the NWS-Philly's area was well over 50% low vs. what was forecast. Those are the only two that had moderate to major parts of the area miss signifcantly on predicted snow that I can recall.
Now that doesn't mean every storm doesn't have small areas (maybe 20-25%) miss significantly. Look at 3/2, where some mesoscale bands put down 4-8" SW of Philly and 2-5" SE of Philly where <1" was forecast, but probably 60-70% of the general area was forecast well. It's impossible to get every part of a forecast right, but I only count 1 major (more than half the NWS forecast area being off over 50%) bust in the last 2 years. Perhaps I'm an easy grader, but at least I gave grading a shot. What data do you have to share on forecast amounts vs. predictions (and your back yard doesn't count - needs to be more widespread than that).
I've never "admitted" any such thing - saying it doesn't mean it's true. Keep on trollin' though...
Dude, um ok?
If u also read some of the posts by #s and Bac, they post some cool info about what happens within weather systems and the interactions of the temperatures with the precipitation, the ratio of liquid to snow, thundersnow, the various models and an explanation of them.
I am not blind to only these threads for info but many times it is the most convenient for me.
Like seriously, if I would have to look up all that info, it would take a great deal of time to do so. I do have a job and since I am a ScarletNation member, I figure it is easier to click on the weather thread to see what is happening from each model run to the next. Also, since I am checking out the thread, might as well find out what the snow predictions are like so that I can see if I wanna go snowboarding or something or just hunker down and read about the posts of OTHER posters that are posting on the thread about conditions in their towns. Heck, that info would be useful to other people as well, not just me.
Also, where I work, a TV is not readily accessible and it is much quicker to scroll through words in a thread than to wait for a news forecast sometimes on the TV.
It is convenient for me to open the weather thread, shoot down to the latest posts and see what is going on with any storms than to wait for the TV if I could even get to one.
I also have checked out some of the sites the #s and Bac have posted about where they get some of the info so I, along with other people that read the site, would not have gotten that if I didn't read their posts.
U can get ur info where i want and I will get my info from where i want. I can't have an opinion as to the the idea that these weather threads have great info from many different sources? Thought it was a free country. Cause I just wanna check out what's going on with the system that may or may not hit us
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I dont quite care enough to record each and every event. The weather people quickly move on never ever owning up to the complete whiffs...so i would need to spend time digging up that data..time i dont have. Nevertheless these weren't border line errors or on the margins of a forecast. These were me prepped and ready to skip work and head to the sledding hill forecasts that ended with no interruption to the school schedule.