OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8

[WhiteBus]

Probably not as much as you think. I believe many of those are taken from message boards and not just Joe Schmo on FB - and I know some of the NWS mets are regulars on those boards, so they might know how trustworhty some of the posters are.

Just a brief look through my area and its obvious that even "trained" spotters haven't a clue. Im in Washington Crossing. The numbers are over the place of the reports surrounding me. Hopewell, Ewing, Ewing Twsp NJ, WC, Yardley, Lower Makefield, Morrisville go from 6in to 10.5. Yardley Morrisville Lower Makefield in particular are all the same Zip Code. Ewing-Hopewell too big difference for neighboring towns.
I didn't measure myself as I was too busy shoveling, smoking a cigar and enjoying a beer.

 

[JMORC2003]

Dang, just heard a big pop and lost power (Cranford, Indian Village section).

It went down last night for a few hours but they got it fixed. Not as concerned during the day, supposed to get into the 40s, so maybe we’ll just go sledding and wait it out.

 

[ruready4somefootball_rivals]

Driving home last night on Rt 23 South entrance ramp in Wayne was hampered by a tractor trailer laying on it's side blocking the entrance ramp. Had to turn around and go wrong way on one way long entrance ramp to make my way back. Was a nightmare driving, cars stuck all over the place. I left work because we lost power at work. Thank goodness kept power at home, but my snowblower died (auger won't turn) and I had to shovel (live on a corner). Heavy snow (in my 60s now, so it's heavier - lol)....

Back at work this morning!

Shear pins must have broke. I had one break so only one side was turning, but I had an extra and got it up and running again.

 

[superfan01]

Nothing in midtown Manhattan.

3-4 inches in Hoboken and melting fast.

Overreaction

 

[ruready4somefootball_rivals]

Friday's storm was so weird in Hazlet. My front yard had about an inch on the grass, but nothing in the backyard,nothing. As I walked my daily 3 miles, it was the same everywhere, and this was before the sun had a chance to melt anything. Could it have something to do with the wind being so strong it blew snow right past certain parts of grass?

 

[Rhuarc]

Just a brief look through my area and its obvious that even "trained" spotters haven't a clue. Im in Washington Crossing. The numbers are over the place of the reports surrounding me. Hopewell, Ewing, Ewing Twsp NJ, WC, Yardley, Lower Makefield, Morrisville go from 6in to 10.5. Yardley Morrisville Lower Makefield in particular are all the same Zip Code. Ewing-Hopewell too big difference for neighboring towns.
I didn't measure myself as I was too busy shoveling, smoking a cigar and enjoying a beer.

I'm in Hopewell and I'd say it was on the high end of the numbers you posted. I'm going to attempt to use the snowblower today.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I'm in Hopewell and I'd say it was on the high end of the numbers you posted. I'm going to attempt to use the snowblower today.

Don't be cheap, pay a local kid to shovel!

 

[RU1977]

Shear pins must have broke. I had one break so only one side was turning, but I had an extra and got it up and running again.

In this case smoke starting coming out of the blower when I engaged the auger. Sometimes it turned, most times it didn't.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

We used to live in MJ, right near the HS, off Welcome Farms Rd. My sister in law still lives over there and she said they lost power yesterday as well. Ironically when we evacuated for Irene we went up there and it was worse than Ocean City, you guys lost power for a few days which is why we stayed for Sandy.

Sandy is the only time we lost power but it was a week. Irene luckily we didn't and this time too we're okay.

Was looking at a PSEG outage map because have some family without power and seems like a blanket estimate they've given of March 10 11:45pm. I just randomly just clicked on a bunch of places in the area around me and nearby towns and they all said the same thing.

 

[Rhuarc]

Don't be cheap, pay a local kid to shovel!

Find me some local kids and I would. It's a ghost town around here.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Find me some local kids and I would. It's a ghost town around here.

Local Facebook community page?

 

[Crazed_RU]

Nothing in midtown Manhattan.

3-4 inches in Hoboken and melting fast.

Overreaction

Oh ok cool. Glad to hear all is well in your bubble.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

In this case smoke starting coming out of the blower when I engaged the auger. Sometimes it turned, most times it didn't.

I'm not a mechanic by any means to know but could be one of the auger belts being worn or stretched but maybe not torn yet.

My snowblower didn't clog for the most part but it was making a squealing noise from time to time when throwing the heavy plowed snow at the end of the drive. I looked it up and the auger belts could be the issue. I'll have to get someone to look at it in the offseason but when looking it up I read problems with the auger belts, like the shear pins, can cause problems where the snow doesn't throw.

 

[Knight Shift]

I'm not a mechanic by any means to know but could be one of the auger belts being worn or stretched but maybe not torn yet.

My snowblower didn't clog for the most part but it was making a squealing noise from time to time when throwing the heavy plowed snow at the end of the drive. I looked it up and the auger belts could be the issue. I'll have to get someone to look at it in the offseason but when looking it up I read problems with the auger belts, like the shear pins, can cause problems where the snow doesn't throw.

You sure it was not @mildone and his sheep making the squealing noise?

 

[RU1977]

I'm not a mechanic by any means to know but could be one of the auger belts being worn or stretched but maybe not torn yet.

My snowblower didn't clog for the most part but it was making a squealing noise from time to time when throwing the heavy plowed snow at the end of the drive. I looked it up and the auger belts could be the issue. I'll have to get someone to look at it in the offseason but when looking it up I read problems with the auger belts, like the shear pins, can cause problems where the snow doesn't throw.

Yes, I also did hear some squealing. At first, when I depressed the lever to engage the auger, the cable to the lever that raises to start the auger was loose and the auger didn't engage. I tightened the cable and that worked for awhile, but now it doesn't engage at all. May have to shovel until I can get it repaired (hopefully the off-season will occur soon).....

 

[RUsSKii]

Nothing in midtown Manhattan.

3-4 inches in Hoboken and melting fast.

Overreaction

There was most definitely at least 2-4 inches of total snowfall in midtown Manhattan yesterday, but most buildings and the Sanitation Department were good about consistently salting/cleaning the sidewalks and streets, respectively. The on-off rain and sleet between the snow led to a crapload of slush and most definitely took at least a few inches off the snowfall totals.

Even that relatively small snowfall caused problems there, because taxi/TLC drivers barely slowed down for the slippery conditions and pedestrians had to guess/make sure that the vehicles would stop in time for red lights.

I'm thankful to have kept the power on, while my parents lost it in Monmouth County (Marlboro).

 

[DHajekRC84]

Just a brief look through my area and its obvious that even "trained" spotters haven't a clue. Im in Washington Crossing. The numbers are over the place of the reports surrounding me. Hopewell, Ewing, Ewing Twsp NJ, WC, Yardley, Lower Makefield, Morrisville go from 6in to 10.5. Yardley Morrisville Lower Makefield in particular are all the same Zip Code. Ewing-Hopewell too big difference for neighboring towns.
I didn't measure myself as I was too busy shoveling, smoking a cigar and enjoying a beer.

you and I were in the pink...I don't know if it is the Watchung mountains to the northwest that causes this track but we live in what seems to be a slot for storm travel.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Yes, I also did hear some squealing. At first, when I depressed the lever to engage the auger, the cable to the lever that raises to start the auger was loose and the auger didn't engage. I tightened the cable and that worked for awhile, but now it doesn't engage at all. May have to shovel until I can get it repaired (hopefully the off-season will occur soon).....

pretty much what happened to me earlier in the season. you could smell the rubber burn too from the belt slipping and then bame, nothing. Got a new belt that was 3x better from sears ($13), easily popped off the cover for the belt drives, and had the new baby on and working great//better! in 20 mins.

 

[DHajekRC84]

You sure it was not @mildone and his sheep making the squealing noise?

no, because he said the thing would BLOW ....

 

[WhiteBus]

you and I were in the pink...I don't know if it is the Watchung mountains to the northwest that causes this track but we live in what seems to be a slot for storm travel.

But the measurements dont make sense for slotting when a town in the middle is less or more than the surrounding towns.

 

[DHajekRC84]

But the measurements dont make sense for slotting when a town in the middle is less or more than the surrounding towns.[/QUOTE

But the measurements dont make sense for slotting when a town in the middle is less or more than the surrounding towns.

Yeah but Yardley, Morrisville, Ewing, Hopewell, ate all south to southeast of us, no? Numbers map shows a pretty tight zone for the heavy drop. I'm also up on an elevation from the town if ringoes. There are times it is raining at bottom of my road and snowing as I get to my house.

Maybe Washington should have crossed a bit south of Trenton instead lol.

 

[RU1977]

pretty much what happened to me earlier in the season. you could smell the rubber burn too from the belt slipping and then bame, nothing. Got a new belt that was 3x better from sears ($13), easily popped off the cover for the belt drives, and had the new baby on and working great//better! in 20 mins.

Wow! Exactly what's happening with mine! Also smelled rubber burning.... I'll have to see about replacing the belt then (I have a Toro).....

 

[RU848789]

you and I were in the pink...I don't know if it is the Watchung mountains to the northwest that causes this track but we live in what seems to be a slot for storm travel.

Nothing on land affected the track of the surface low or the upper air low, but given the surface low track relatively close to the NJ coast, often, but nowhere near always, the best precip bands are 150-200 miles W/NW/N of the low and that was generally the case yesterday. Plus areas that far inland are further from the warmth of the ocean and usually at greater elevation than 95/coast, so they're less likely to get any rain/sleet and to have better ratios of snow to liquid. Add those things up and you get 16-24" instead of 4-10" for most of 95 +/-10 miles NW/SE of 95.

If the bands had been evenly distributed, it would have been more like 12-18" instead of 16-24" and 8-12" instead of 4-10" - which is basically what the NWS and most pros were predicting, as it's literally impossible to know where the heaviest bands are going to hit. The data and the models are simply not good enough for that and may never be due to the limitations of chaos theory in high energy systems.

 

[RU848789]

Nothing in midtown Manhattan.

3-4 inches in Hoboken and melting fast.

Overreaction

Wow, taking lessons from T, lol...

 

[DHajekRC84]

Nothing on land affected the track of the surface low or the upper air low, but given the surface low track relatively close to the NJ coast, often, but nowhere near always, the best precip bands are 150-200 miles W/NW/N of the low and that was generally the case yesterday. Plus areas that far inland are further from the warmth of the ocean and usually at greater elevation than 95/coast, so they're less likely to get any rain/sleet and to have better ratios of snow to liquid. Add those things up and you get 16-24" instead of 4-10" for most of 95 +/-10 miles NW/SE of 95.

If the bands had been evenly distributed, it would have been more like 12-18" instead of 16-24" and 8-12" instead of 4-10" - which is basically what the NWS and most pros were predicting, as it's literally impossible to know where the heaviest bands are going to hit. The data and the models are simply not good enough for that and may never be due to the limitations of chaos theory in high energy systems.

what I meant was the storms coming up from the south always seem to right the east side of the mountains to the west in a northeast path. perhaps that's just the way the winds take it. Wasn't really equating it to snowfall amounts....however if you look at historic drops, they always seem to run this swath....clearly I am not an expert but just something I was thinking from experience.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Wow! Exactly what's happening with mine! Also smelled rubber burning.... I'll have to see about replacing the belt then (I have a Toro).....

I have a Craftsman....check out your owners manual if you still have it or look it up online. As simple as buying the correct belt. Taking off the cover (mine was like 3 screws). Maybe having to loosen a couple of guides near the main drive pulley. Sliding the new belt on. Re-tightening the guides at the correct distance from the pulley. And re-adjusting the auger drive cable to the correct tension since it has probably been tightened/shortened as your old belt got stretched out. good luck. easy job. Screw driver and/or small socket. most likely $150 savings

ps...I am sure there is also a youtube on how to do it as well.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

We just got internet and phone back in my area of Pway. Power is out for the street behind us with downed wire. We lost a redbud tree and two major limbs on a Rutgers dogwood. Lots of trees and branches down here. Total snowfall about 14”of heavy, wet snow.

 

[mildone_rivals]

You sure it was not @mildone and his sheep making the squealing noise?

You mean, with my shear pin?

 

[Phi_1055]

Thank you to Numbers and the other weather junkies for keeping us posted on the progress of the storm. And thanks, too, to the poster who reminded us to spray cooking oil on the blades of our snowblowers. That saved me a lot of work and trouble.

 

[RUPete]

So, too soon for any discussion/info on the next threat on Monday?

 

[bac2therac]

did find that while official totals seemed hefty around Somerset County, what was actually on the pavement was a different story.....it was more like 6 or 7 rather than 10

saw tons of tree limbs take major beatings with this storm. Spring cleanups will be in fashion this year.

 

[WhiteBus]

did find that while official totals seemed hefty around Somerset County, what was actually on the pavement was a different story.....it was more like 6 or 7 rather than 10

saw tons of tree limbs take major beatings with this storm. Spring cleanups will be in fashion this year.

At some point dont they plot measurements to a map?

 

[bac2therac]

So, too soon for any discussion/info on the next threat on Monday?

have not checked any weather discussion boards but just a quick glance at the model runs from this morning all show this thing scooting south and east of the area. The GFS is the only one that has snow into NJ..would be a south jersey special..we have seen these before where anywhere north of Toms River gets nothing. Canadian and NAM move this to our southeast. Have not checked the Euro. May need watching but not much going on right now.

 

[Block R]

At some point dont they plot measurements to a map?

They did a prelim version already which Numbers posted earlier in the thread here. Banding with this storm seems to have produced quite a range of amounts from town to town. I observed this on my short 10 mile drive to work this morning in CNJ with increasing amounts (and tree damage) as I headed west.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Just got in a little while ago - not very good plowing on the highways, left areas of hardpack which totally screwed up traffic.

Wow, taking lessons from T, lol...

Maybe we should call him.............Mini-T!

 

[JMORC2003]

Power is still out, checked the main breaker, flipped it off, now it won’t go back to the on position.

Is this normal during an outage? Pse&G is on the job, but just wondering if I’ll have a breaker issue once power is restored (ie, faulty breaker).

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

pretty much what happened to me earlier in the season. you could smell the rubber burn too from the belt slipping and then bame, nothing. Got a new belt that was 3x better from sears ($13), easily popped off the cover for the belt drives, and had the new baby on and working great//better! in 20 mins.

Thank you that probably confirms that's the issue with the squeaking noise. Have an Ariens and did look up youtube videos but it's a little more than popping a cover and replacing, looked like I had to separate the machine. Too much for my simpleton brain lol. Change spark plugs, air filters, oil I can do, assembled the blower from Home Depot too. But ask me to separate the machine and put it back together I get worried I'll screw something up and cause a bigger issue.

Knowledge is power and a money saver. Hopefully this is the last use for the season or at the very least no more heavy snow.

 

[RU848789]

have not checked any weather discussion boards but just a quick glance at the model runs from this morning all show this thing scooting south and east of the area. The GFS is the only one that has snow into NJ..would be a south jersey special..we have seen these before where anywhere north of Toms River gets nothing. Canadian and NAM move this to our southeast. Have not checked the Euro. May need watching but not much going on right now.

Euro is still a miss, but the point 4 days out is that the pattern is still ripe for a potential coastal storm with the relative states of the PNA, EPO and NAO, which encourage troughing in the east and formation of coastal lows (vs. inland cutter rainstorms) and keeping somewhat cold air in place, as we've had. Question is going to be around the wave spacing and interactions of the shortwaves diving down from Canada/Rockies in a couple of days, since right now, the model consensus is for a mid-Atlantic storm to our south, we've been in this position before (in fact many famous Miller B storms, like this might be, were progged to be S/E of us at this stage). The main point is that this threat is worth watching. If it's still out to sea to our south in 2 days, it's dead, but it's not dead yet...

 

[RU848789]

Just got in a little while ago - not very good plowing on the highways, left areas of hardpack which totally screwed up traffic.

Maybe we should call him.............Mini-T!

I laughed - well played...

 

[RU848789]

They did a prelim version already which Numbers posted earlier in the thread here. Banding with this storm seems to have produced quite a range of amounts from town to town. I observed this on my short 10 mile drive to work this morning in CNJ with increasing amounts (and tree damage) as I headed west.

yes, thanks - this guy hasn't updated yet nor has the NWS provided their map - just the reports - but they've been updated and I'll post shortly...