OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

once this thing gets cranking you do not want to be out in...snow rates of 1-2 inches an hour....sometime after 9AM I wouldnt want to be out in this..if it delivers but the main show will be 12-7PM

So if I leave work in paramus at 12pm to head back to hoboken ill be all good?

 

[bac2therac]

So, the 00Z NAM is much snowier than the previous couple of runs of the NAM for 95 and even for the coast. Doesn't mean it's right, but by definition, models should be experiencing less and less errors in track, precip type and intensity, as one gets closer to the event, such that a model should almost perfectly predict 1 minute ahead and very accurately predict 1 hour ahead and reasonably accurately predict 6 hours ahead.

Since the NAM is the first model to run with 7 pm EST data, which ingested extra hurricane hunter flight data, I'd expect there's a good possibility the other models will respond similarly when their 00Z output comes out over the next 3 hours (some take longer to run than others, but they all start with the same data), but that's not a given.

We're now only 12 hours from the most critical part of the forecast, involving the formation and movement of the surface low pressure, so one would hope all of the models will be getting closer to the actual outcome, but unfortunately, in very dynamic, complex scenarios, like this, errors are still present only a few hours out.

and also the caveats are the NAM usually spits out more than what comes out of the sky...and that with banding potential here, some will do better than others and we have no idea who that will be besides the thinking that Eastern PA and NNW NJ should do well...it would appear that central jersey on north should get into the CCB but a slight shift matters alot. Im still thinking that 6-12 is a good call for Central Jersey and that can be tweaked upward tomorrow morning to 8-14 if overnight guidance is consistent

 

[bac2therac]

So if I leave work in paramus at 12pm to head back to hoboken ill be all good?

dicey because no one can guarantee exact timing, you very well could get caught in 1-2 inch bands. I would wait until you see what conditions are tomorrow morning before going to work at all

 

[LevaosLectures]

This sucks

 

[RU848789]

Late morning meaning 10am? 11am? And by bad how much accumlatio would you predict for 2pm? Any help/predictions are appreciated

Just use the hourly graphic for Paramus and for future reference, bookmark this link and whenever you want the next 48 hours (or further out if you adjust the start point), click on it and then go to the lower right of the page and click on "hourly weather forecast." Bottom line, anywhere near or NW of 95 really doesn't want to be on the road after maybe 10 am, as heavy snow will start around then and conditions will deteriorate quickly.

 

[WhiteBus]

This might help...

We all have places to go! [roll]

 

[RU848789]

This sucks

Dude, embrace it - it's a beautiful thing. My work already closed for tomorrow, but that's easy for many of us as we can do telecons and email. I'll be "working from home," lol. I kind of get a pass, though, since most of the people in our area subscribe to my internal weather blog at Merck, including some of the senior execs, since a good friend of mine at work, who is a big fan of my reports, has been the chief of staff for our CEO for the past couple of years and he shares them. Kind of interesting getting personal emails from sr. execs asking weather/travel questions. Adds a little pressure...

 

[RU848789]

We all have places to go! [roll]

Great ad. By the way, having driven on the Delware Turnpike more than a few times, that shot in the ad just doesn't look like any part of that road to me. Anyone else?

 

[rutcor]

So, the 00Z NAM is much snowier than the previous couple of runs of the NAM for 95 and even for the coast. Doesn't mean it's right, but by definition, models should be experiencing less and less errors in track, precip type and intensity, as one gets closer to the event, such that a model should almost perfectly predict 1 minute ahead and very accurately predict 1 hour ahead and reasonably accurately predict 6 hours ahead.

Since the NAM is the first model to run with 7 pm EST data, which ingested extra hurricane hunter flight data, I'd expect there's a good possibility the other models will respond similarly when their 00Z output comes out over the next 3 hours (some take longer to run than others, but they all start with the same data), but that's not a given.

We're now only 12 hours from the most critical part of the forecast, involving the formation and movement of the surface low pressure, so one would hope all of the models will be getting closer to the actual outcome, but unfortunately, in very dynamic, complex scenarios, like this, errors are still present only a few hours out.

Thanks for the detail. Hate the answer, but thanks for the detail.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Dude, embrace it - it's a beautiful thing. My work already closed for tomorrow, but that's easy for many of us as we can do telecons and email. I'll be "working from home," lol. I kind of get a pass, though, since most of the people in our area subscribe to my internal weather blog at Merck, including some of the senior execs, since a good friend of mine at work, who is a big fan of my reports, has been the chief of staff for our CEO for the past couple of years and he shares them. Kind of interesting getting personal emails from sr. execs asking weather/travel questions. Adds a little pressure...

40,000 people in NJ are still out of power. This storm means these families and children will be left in the cold for several more days.
#perspective

 

[bac2therac]

Dude, embrace it - it's a beautiful thing. My work already closed for tomorrow, but that's easy for many of us as we can do telecons and email. I'll be "working from home," lol. I kind of get a pass, though, since most of the people in our area subscribe to my internal weather blog at Merck, including some of the senior execs, since a good friend of mine at work, who is a big fan of my reports, has been the chief of staff for our CEO for the past couple of years and he shares them. Kind of interesting getting personal emails from sr. execs asking weather/travel questions. Adds a little pressure...

why should he embrace...most people do not like snow during the day....they tolerate it...however 8-12 inches of snow serves no purpose, yeah two or three inches people can deal with and smile but forecast of a foot of snow just causes unnecessary hassle and shut retail and causes productivity loss

 

[bac2therac]

40,000 people in NJ are still out of power. This storm means these families and children will be left in the cold for several more days.
#perspective

exactly and the potential for more tomorrow...nobody needs this chit

 

[FastMJ]

Dude, embrace it - it's a beautiful thing. My work already closed for tomorrow, but that's easy for many of us as we can do telecons and email. I'll be "working from home," lol. I kind of get a pass, though, since most of the people in our area subscribe to my internal weather blog at Merck, including some of the senior execs, since a good friend of mine at work, who is a big fan of my reports, has been the chief of staff for our CEO for the past couple of years and he shares them. Kind of interesting getting personal emails from sr. execs asking weather/travel questions. Adds a little pressure...

why should he embrace...most people do not like snow during the day....they tolerate it...however 8-12 inches of snow serves no purpose, yeah two or three inches people can deal with and smile but forecast of a foot of snow just causes unnecessary hassle and shut retail and causes productivity loss

Not to mention screwing up vacation plans for those of us who were looking forward to a well earned break

 

[T2Kplus10]

exactly and the potential for more tomorrow...nobody needs this chit

Amen. This is a serious hardship to many this time around. Lots of folks have been out of power since Friday/Saturday.

 

[e5fdny]

Dude, embrace it - it's a beautiful thing. My work already closed for tomorrow, but that's easy for many of us as we can do telecons and email. I'll be "working from home," lol. I kind of get a pass, though, since most of the people in our area subscribe to my internal weather blog at Merck, including some of the senior execs, since a good friend of mine at work, who is a big fan of my reports, has been the chief of staff for our CEO for the past couple of years and he shares them. Kind of interesting getting personal emails from sr. execs asking weather/travel questions. Adds a little pressure...

Bruh...this is when you go all bazinga! on us.

Take it down a notch....office voice/posts

(and I know you don’t mean to do this)

 

[RU848789]

40,000 people in NJ are still out of power. This storm means these families and children will be left in the cold for several more days.
#perspective

How could snow ever impact anyone? Every storm is a bust where you live. I'd submit that downplaying every winter storm, saying they won't amount to anything, which could make people not take a serious storm seriously, is far worse than expressing my admiration for the power and beauty of nature, which I have no control over.

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Dude, embrace it - it's a beautiful thing. My work already closed for tomorrow, but that's easy for many of us as we can do telecons and email. I'll be "working from home," lol. I kind of get a pass, though, since most of the people in our area subscribe to my internal weather blog at Merck, including some of the senior execs, since a good friend of mine at work, who is a big fan of my reports, has been the chief of staff for our CEO for the past couple of years and he shares them. Kind of interesting getting personal emails from sr. execs asking weather/travel questions. Adds a little pressure...

Sorry. Not a beautiful thing when people have to go out in this. Meh....6/7 inches not bad but up to a foot? 96%of winter fatalities are because of traffic accidents. Ex in law families up in Califon without power since Friday. Now they have to deal with more trees down/lines down.

 

[sport2231]

This is where #’s wears his heart on sleeve. I simply think he means enjoy it for what it is. “It’s a beautiful thing” might be a little much.

I love snow. I love tracking storms. I love reading the forums. I have a weather center on my deck that bluetooths the info to a display screen in my kitchen.

I’m excited for the storm. But my pregnant sister also just got power back two days ago in the Rockaway area. 2 trees took down power and 2 cars in my neighborhood in the last storm.

I know a storm like this will cause problems for people, but I can’t change that or the weather, but something within me still roots for it. It’s a weird realization

 

[RU848789]

Bruh...this is when you go all bazinga! on us.

Take it down a notch....office voice/posts

(and I know you don’t mean to do this)

Please. If I didn't love snow, I wouldn't post about it and the people who use the info I provide wouldn't get it (and yes, they can get it elsewhere, but some seem to like getting it here). So posting one time in a thread about what motivates me to do these threads shouldn't cause everyone to get their panties in a bunch. Some people just like derailing threads. If people were so friggin' concerned with those who love snow, they'd be lining up and posting critical posts on the weather boards. But they're not. Faux outrage. My last comment on this and I doubt I'll be posting any more on my love of snow, except probably a few times while it's falling, after being out in it.

 

[e5fdny]

This is where #’s sometimes where he wears his heart on sleeve. I simply think he means enjoy it for what it is. “It’s a beautiful thing” might be a little much.

I love snow. I love tracking storms. I love reading the forums. I have a weather center on my deck that bluetooths the info to a display screen in my kitchen.

I’m excited for the storm. But my pregnant sister also just got power back two days ago in the Rockaway area. 2 trees took down power and 2 cars in neighborhood in the last storm.

I know a storm like this will cause problems for people, but I can’t change that or the weather, but something within me still roots for it. It’s a weird realization

 

[sport2231]

I should clarify roots for the snow. Not the damage and heartache

 

[sport2231]

Also. Down to 34 here in Kinnelon

 

[e5fdny]

Please. If I didn't love snow, I wouldn't post about it and the people who use the info I provide wouldn't get it (and yes, they can get it elsewhere, but some seem to like getting it here). So posting one time in a thread about what motivates me to do these threads shouldn't cause everyone to get their panties in a bunch. Some people just like derailing threads. If people were so friggin' concerned with those who love snow, they'd be lining up and posting critical posts on the weather boards. But they're not. Faux outrage. My last comment on this and I doubt I'll be posting any more on my love of snow, except probably a few times while it's falling, after being out in it.

What you do is very appreciated by ALL of us! Starting with those of us who have to deal with the consequences of the results outside while we work.

That being said...I can see why some like it better when you do it in a more official like capacity. Especially when the event in question can be a big and nasty one.

 

[e5fdny]

I should clarify roots for the snow. Not the damage and heartache

Too late!

And nobody better call me psycho! LOL

 

[RU848789]

Most recent HRRR, very short range, mesoscale model, which is often useful as a storm nears and is underway. Shows lots of snow starting late morning and cranking by the end of the run at 3 pm, with another 6-7 hours of snow to go. If the NAM and the HRRR are right, quite a few folks closer to the coast are going to need shovels that didn't expect to.

 

[DJ Spanky]

This thread is definitely a success, as we had a Mini-Me sighting!

 

[bac2therac]

Sorry. Not a beautiful thing when people have to go out in this. Meh....6/7 inches not bad but up to a foot? 96%of winter fatalities are because of traffic accidents. Ex in law families up in Califon without power since Friday. Now they have to deal with more trees down/lines down.

how about that tree that we encountered up in Griggstown in that long driveway..more of those to come, if they are not already there

 

[DJ Spanky]

Too late!

And nobody better call me psycho! LOL

 

[WhiteBus]

How could snow ever impact anyone? Every storm is a bust where you live. I'd submit that downplaying every winter storm, saying they won't amount to anything, which could make people not take a serious storm seriously, is far worse than expressing my admiration for the power and beauty of nature, which I have no control over.

This is where completely go off the rails. You say something stupid and when called out on it attack their viewpoint. There is no beauty in a foot+ of snow to many, like myself lived in a dark, cold home for days and facing that possibility of a repeat.
Your glee becomes repulsive

 

[CodyRU]

Whats the timing for western camden county and gloucester county ? If i go to work (as you bet I'm damn well expected to) will i have any shot of completing my 20 mile evening commute? Or will i get stranded at work?

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

how about that tree that we encountered up in Griggstown in that long driveway..more of those to come, if they are not already there

Was up there today. A lot of trees hanging down along canal road .Mettlers Lane has been closed for the past 2 days due to downed trees and lines. Nothing like driving at 3 am in the morning not knowing when you will encounter a fallen tree or a live wire down.

 

[RU848789]

And the 00Z RDPS (Canadian mesoscale model, but not a high resolution model, which is like the 12 km NAM). Another big hit for 95 and some for the coast too.

 

[e5fdny]

Most recent HRRR, very short range, mesoscale model, which is often useful as a storm nears and is underway. Shows lots of snow starting late morning and cranking by the end of the run at 3 pm, with another 6-7 hours of snow to go. If the NAM and the HRRR are right, quite a few folks closer to the coast are going to need shovels that didn't expect to.

Accuracy?

 

[herdof3]

Which will come first....RU wins the Big Ten or a Numbers weather thread that doesn't end up in arguing?

 

[bac2therac]

And the 00Z RDPS (Canadian mesoscale model, but not a high resolution model, which is like the 12 km NAM). Another big hit for 95 and some for the coast too.

there is no way we are getting 10-1 with this event

 

[bac2therac]

dont know what to make of that ugly and warm GFS run that gave central jersey 3-5 other than to say the pros on 33andrain says its awful and is not handling the thermal profiles right

 

[RU848789]

00Z GFS makes a marked move towards the snowier models vs. what it showed at 12Z and 18Z - it was the non-snowy outlier and still is, but nearly as much as it was - can clearly see the 25-30 mile shift back SE with the heavy snow line. Things appear to be lining up for a more major snowstorm for I-95 and even towards the coast than we were thinking earlier today. Not a given, but that's the way things are moving.

 

[IL Lusciato]

00Z GFS makes a marked move towards the snowier models vs. what it showed at 12Z and 18Z - it was the non-snowy outlier and still is, but nearly as much as it was - can clearly see the 25-30 mile shift back SE with the heavy snow line. Things appear to be lining up for a more major snowstorm for I-95 and even towards the coast than we were thinking earlier today. Not a given, but that's the way things are moving.

Yesssss.

I'm going to work tomorrow anyway, as it is only around the corner. But love a great snow storm and also the peace and quiet that goes with it.

 

[RU848789]

there is no way we are getting 10-1 with this event

Depends. With projected strong lift leading to formation of good crystals aloft in the dendritic growth zone, we'll be getting great snowflake formation that would normally likely be 10-15:1 ratio snow. The question is how much above 32F air the snowflakes encounter on their way down the bottom 500 or so feet of the column, which could partially melt some flakes, leading to riming and aggregation and lower snow ratios than 10:1. But that is not a given in a highly dynamic situation like this. Just asked DualJet this question on 33andrain.

 

[koleszar]

Depends. With projected strong lift leading to formation of good crystals aloft in the dendritic growth zone, we'll be getting great snowflake formation that would normally likely be 10-15:1 ratio snow. The question is how much above 32F air the snowflakes encounter on their way down the bottom 500 or so feet of the column, which could partially melt some flakes, leading to riming and aggregation and lower snow ratios than 10:1. But that is not a given in a highly dynamic situation like this. Just asked DualJet this question on 33andrain.

Is this right the Howell/Freehold area just went from 2" to 4" to 8" to 10"? And the Toms River area just went from.5" to roughly 5"? While the Weather Channel says nothing but rain/slush for my area. I'm so confused. You know this stuff, I'm clueless.