My wife works for Rutgers and they screw this up all the time. They make you come in or you lose a vacation day then they send you home during the worse part of the storm. Last bad snow we got there was more snow down here in Monmouth County and since my driveway was plowed in she decided to stay home. Three hours later they sent everyone home. Those people that came in did not use a vacation day but those who were stuck had to.
OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8
- Thread starter RU848789
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Those are some huge snowba... nevermind.Last snowstorm I saw this outside my window
NWS in Philly and NYC generally maintained all of their warnings (pink counties) and converted the areas with watches, e.g., Monmouth and the NJ counties along the Delaware south of Mercer (counties in blue), to advisories for 1-3" and potential for 5". However for the NWS-Philly, in general for the I-95 counties under warnings (see map below), like Middlesex, Mercer and the PA counties along 95 south of Trenton, they've reduced snowfall forecasts to 5-8", due to concerns over mixing with rain, although they do say there could be lollipops up to 11" in NW parts of these counties or at elevation. For the next tier to the NW, they're going with 10-14" and for Sussex/Poconos, they're going with 12-16".
The NWS in NYC also lowered snowfall amounts for warned counties a bit, for the same reason of concerns over mixing with rain. They have 4-8" for NYC/LI, 7-12" for adjacent NJ up to Essex/eastern Bergen and 10-16" for Passaic, western Bergen, the Hudson Valley and most of CT. Maps aren't up yet but should be soon.
Edit: NWS maps finally out. For the NWS-Philly map, maybe the steepest gradient I've ever seen, from NW to SE: 8" in NB to 3" in Freehold, over a distance of just 20 miles! How the hell can that forecast be right? Hint: it won't be, but I don't know which way it'll be wrong and nobody else does either. The suspense makes it fun for me and frustrating at the same time. For the NWS NYC map, there's a significant decrease for LI, but only slight decreases for NYC. And for both offices, snowfall amounts were increased 20+ miles NW of 95 from Philly to Newark and north of about the GWB in NY.
My latest, quite long note to folks, in case interested - some repeat info from the post above, but new stuff, too. Didn't repeat pasting the maps above...
Summary (no snickering): So, once again we’re on the verge of a major winter storm and we get model mayhem, as the consensus from last night has broken down to some degree, with most model tracks shifting westward a little or some, bringing the potential for significant mixing from the coast all the way to the 95 corridor, potentially cutting down accumulations significantly (to the 5-8” generally forecast now for most of the 95 corridor), but some models are still showing the 10-18” of snow along I-95. There’s still agreement on light precip (snow NW of 95 and snow/rain along/SE of 95) from midnight tonight through mid-morning – the morning commute is likely not going to be a major issue for anyone and may lull people into thinking this isn’t going to be a big deal. It is. Where it snows. And that’s the almost impossible part to predict.
Areas where it is mostly to all snow (certainly 20+ miles NW of 95 from Philly to NYC and even New Haven should be all snow) are going to get 10-18” of snow from late morning through mid-evening (10-12 hours) and conditions will become downright dangerous with heavy wet snow, which will accumulate on any surface at snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour, poor visibility, high winds (30-40 mph gusts) and possible downed trees and power lines (and power outages). Areas where it’s mostly to all rain (25+ miles SE of 95 from Philly to Woodbridge) are going to get…wait for it…a lot of rain, which is annoying and may lead to some urban/stream flooding (with 1-2” of rain), but is not that big of a deal. The coastal flooding threat is minor. Along 95/NJTPK and within 20-25 miles of that line, we’ll likely see gradients from 0” of snow to 12”+ of snow, so conditions could be bad or not so bad. Extrarodinarily hard to forecast that correctly – the NWS has tried as per the maps below.
Details: NWS in Philly and NYC generally maintained all of their warnings (pink counties) and converted the areas with watches, e.g., Monmouth and the NJ counties along the Delaware south of Mercer (counties in blue), to advisories for 1-3" and potential for 5". However for the NWS-Philly, in general, for the I-95 counties under warnings (see map below), like Middlesex, Mercer, Lower Bucks/Montco, Philly, Delaware and Chester, they've reduced snowfall forecasts to 5-8", due to concerns over mixing with rain, although they do say there could be lollipops up to 11" in NW parts of these counties or at elevation. For the next tier to the NW of 95, such as NW Montco/Bucks, Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris and the Lehigh Valley, they're going with 10-14" and for Sussex/Poconos, they're going with 12-16".
The NWS in NYC also lowered snowfall amounts for warned counties a bit, for the same reason of concerns over mixing with rain. They have 4-8" for NYC/LI and coastal CT (except 2-6” for Suffolk), 7-12" for adjacent NJ (Union, Hudson, Essex and Eastern Bergen) and interior CT, and 10-16" for Passaic, Western Bergen, and the NY side of the Hudson Valley.
For the NWS-Philly map, it’s maybe the steepest gradient I've ever seen, from NW to SE: 12” in Morristown to 8" in NB to 3" in Freehold, over a distance of just 40 miles! Similarly, from 11” in Lansdale, to 5” in Philly to 1” in Medford over about 35 miles. How the hell can that forecast be right? Hint: it won't be, exactly, but I don't know which way it'll be wrong and nobody else does either. The suspense makes it fun for me and frustrating at the same time. For the NWS NYC map, there's a significant decrease for LI vs. earlier today, but only slight decreases for NYC. And for both offices, snowfall amounts were increased 20+ miles NW of 95 from Philly to NYC to CT.
For this storm, it’s all about the track of the surface low, as well as the 850 millibar upper level low. Generally speaking, it’s hard for snow to fall to the SE of the 850 mbar low, which is usually to the NW of the surface low, which is forecast to go from the DelMarVa to about Toms River and then somewhat ENE to south of Montauk. If that low is too close to the coast, too much warm air moves in aloft and at the surface, changing the snow that’s being generated at insane rates aloft (at several thousand feet up) into rain, as the last several hundred feet can be above freezing melting the snowflakes.
Models are not currently indicating a cold surface and a warm nose aloft, which can lead to sleet or freezing rain, like the 3/14/17 snow/sleet fest last year for I-95 (I’d much rather have sleet than rain though – don’t forget, this was all borne out of my love for snow and winter, although it is good to not have to worry about freezing rain). If the track moves 25 miles SE of the track I mentioned above, the rain/snow line will likely move 25 miles SE, whereas if the track moves 25 miles NW, the rain/snow line will likely move 10-20 miles NW (it moves less NW of 95 due to increased general elevation and being further from the ocean). So, we won’t likely know our fate until about 10 am to 1 pm tomorrow, when we see the actual track near the NJ coast. Stay tuned folks.
By the way, the 18Z RGEM and HRDPS are big hits (12" or more), still for 95 and even some towards the coast. Only the GFS is really showing nada for the coast and only maybe 2-4/3-6" for 95. The 18Z NAM cut back a bit, but still shows a general 6-10" for 95, while the 3 km NAM (highest resolution model) shows 8-12" for 95. So, it's not like it's storm cancel, it's just not quite the near model consensus we had for 8-14" for 95 last night.
remember chances those south of 78 get 10-1 ratios are not so hot...still think Kuchera is more accurate representation which slices those totals on the NAM to reasonable levels...don't make me post those Ferrier maps lol
Not positive where that is but don’t look into to much. The norther low has precipitation running ahead of it. That will dissipate as the coastal low takes over. That’s where the majority of snow will come from
Across from Hopewell/Ewing Mercer County. Lower Bucks County.
I'm guessing your not a Revolutionary historian [winking]
we will have light precip in the western areas form now to tomorrow morning spreading to the rest of us..might accumulate in some areas if cold enough, its the initial overrunning
It is starting to flurry up here in Flanders. On a more important note the Devils are kicking the Canadians *** right now 6 - 2
Yep, none of the precip that falls before about 9 am will likely amount to much, as the approaching low pressure system from the Ohio Valley is fairly weak, so precip will be light and any snow will melt with temps in the mid-30s, but it will then start transitioning its energy to the primary low, which will form off the DelMarVa around dawn and strengthen rapidly, as it then shoots NNE near the NJ coast and then exits ENE towards Montauk, staying maybe 50-75 miles south of Montauk. Precip rates will start ramping up by mid-morning and where it snows, will overcome the 34-35F temps at the surface pretty quickly.
yes....the set up is improved for higher snow amounts.l..and also seems to be pushing the dryslot away. Snowmaps are not availible yet to see the differences from last run
00Z 12 km NAM (mesoscale, moderate resolution model) is a huge hit for 95 and even towards the coast. Wow. The change is due to the low pressure center moving ENE earlier than it did in previous runs, keeping the LP further south, meaning less warm air intrusion and also allowing the heavier bands to be over 95, as opposed to NW of 95 (the best bands are usually not close to the storm's center). Will post the 00Z model runs in one post, here, in case anyone is interested...
Here's the 3 km NAM at 00Z; it's also a mesoscale, short term model - only runs 60 hours - but it's a much higher resolution, which helps with accuracy in highly convective systems like this one. It's usually somewhat similar to the 12 km NAM, as they use the same basic algorithms and data sets. Also a big hit.
00Z GFS makes a marked move towards the snowier models vs. what it showed at 12Z and 18Z - both are below and you can clearly see the 25-30 mile shift SE in the heaviest snows - it was the non-snowy outlier and still is, but nearly as much as it was. Things appear to be lining up for a more major snowstorm for I-95 than we were thinking earlier today. Not a given, but that's the way things are moving.
And the 00Z Canadian (CMC/GGEM) global model just came in similar to earlier, which is very snowy for 95 and toward the coast somewhat.
Another model, the 00Z HRDPS, the Canadian version of the US's high resolution 3 km NAM. Big hit for everyone including most of the coast.
And for completeness for the 00Z suite, here's the Euro...
Here's the 3 km NAM at 00Z; it's also a mesoscale, short term model - only runs 60 hours - but it's a much higher resolution, which helps with accuracy in highly convective systems like this one. It's usually somewhat similar to the 12 km NAM, as they use the same basic algorithms and data sets. Also a big hit.
00Z GFS makes a marked move towards the snowier models vs. what it showed at 12Z and 18Z - both are below and you can clearly see the 25-30 mile shift SE in the heaviest snows - it was the non-snowy outlier and still is, but nearly as much as it was. Things appear to be lining up for a more major snowstorm for I-95 than we were thinking earlier today. Not a given, but that's the way things are moving.
And the 00Z Canadian (CMC/GGEM) global model just came in similar to earlier, which is very snowy for 95 and toward the coast somewhat.
Another model, the 00Z HRDPS, the Canadian version of the US's high resolution 3 km NAM. Big hit for everyone including most of the coast.
And for completeness for the 00Z suite, here's the Euro...
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yup I know the snowmaps are not the most important thing, the best thing was the shift but yeah these look quite snowier than the last two runs on the Kuchera for central jersey....also posted is 10-1
00Z NAM is a huge hit for 95 and even towards the coast. Wow. The change is due to the low pressure center moving ENE earlier than it did in previous runs, keeping the LP further south, meaning less warm air intrusion and also allowing the heavier bands to be over 95, as opposed to NW of 95 (the best bands are usually not close to the storm's center). Will post the 00Z model runs in one post, here, in case anyone is interested...
So you're saying "much more snow for central NJ" than the last model? Eff.
My Holly 9:15
915 pm UPDATE: Dangerous wet snow storm on its way! NO CHANGE IN SNOW AMOUNTS BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT 4 am. No unnecessary travel is recommended by the NWS after 7am Wednesday. This is going to be a very high impact storm with widespread power outages "probable". Give us time to digest the new model guidance. The map posted is a minimum expectation. Also circled is the probable area of widespread power outages in our forecast area.... and we may need to expand this southeast to near Philadelphia at 4 AM. Please add your snow amounts here. We'll monitor through the night. Thank you
915 pm UPDATE: Dangerous wet snow storm on its way! NO CHANGE IN SNOW AMOUNTS BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT 4 am. No unnecessary travel is recommended by the NWS after 7am Wednesday. This is going to be a very high impact storm with widespread power outages "probable". Give us time to digest the new model guidance. The map posted is a minimum expectation. Also circled is the probable area of widespread power outages in our forecast area.... and we may need to expand this southeast to near Philadelphia at 4 AM. Please add your snow amounts here. We'll monitor through the night. Thank you
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
yup I know the snowmaps are not the most important thing, the best thing was the shift but yeah these look quite snowier than the last two runs on the Kuchera for central jersey....also posted is 10-1
Uh Oh.
Honestly. And I’m not trying to be a jerk. Prob more then 6. But less then 16?
If it stays all snow you could easily reach 8-12. If it stays all snow and Paramus gets under mesoscale banding it could be more. If it mixes it could 6-8
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Thank you. And what time do you think this will start and at what time will it get bad?
WeatherWorks holding at 4-8 inches for our area:yup I know the snowmaps are not the most important thing, the best thing was the shift but yeah these look quite snowier than the last two runs on the Kuchera for central jersey....also posted is 10-1
Evening Update...As alluded to in the afternoon update, there is increasing potential that rain pushes further into our area during the main part of the storm tomorrow and the 95 corridor will be on the mixing line for mid-morning to mid-afternoon while the precipitation is very heavy. This has led to a slight lowering in totals, specifically during the critical part of the event (daytime tomorrow). We still think any mixing transitions back to all snow in the late afternoon as the storm pulls in colder air and this can be heavy for a few periods during the evening commute. As for tonight, we're watching a few showers approaching now and precip does build in the 10p - 1a timeframe, likely falling as mostly snow. Pavements will struggle given the warm day we just had, but they do need to be monitored for some early AM coverings.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Late morning meaning 10am? 11am? And by bad how much accumlatio would you predict for 2pm? Any help/predictions are appreciated
anywhere from 8-12 for starters but you could get in a lollipop of 14 or 16 up there
So, the 00Z NAM is much snowier than the previous couple of runs of the NAM for 95 and even for the coast. Doesn't mean it's right, but by definition, models should be experiencing less and less errors in track, precip type and intensity, as one gets closer to the event, such that a model should almost perfectly predict 1 minute ahead and very accurately predict 1 hour ahead and reasonably accurately predict 6 hours ahead.
Since the NAM is the first model to run with 7 pm EST data, which ingested extra hurricane hunter flight data, I'd expect there's a good possibility the other models will respond similarly when their 00Z output comes out over the next 3 hours (some take longer to run than others, but they all start with the same data), but that's not a given.
We're now only 12 hours from the most critical part of the forecast, involving the formation and movement of the surface low pressure, so one would hope all of the models will be getting closer to the actual outcome, but unfortunately, in very dynamic, complex scenarios, like this, errors are still present only a few hours out.
once this thing gets cranking you do not want to be out in...snow rates of 1-2 inches an hour....sometime after 9AM I wouldnt want to be out in this..if it delivers but the main show will be 12-7PM
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