Bac, As usual you have done another wonderful job. It amazes me how much time and work you put into this. I think my head would explode analyzing everything for so many teams. Maybe you should be on the selection committee.
Bac's First NCAA tourney analysis
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I am going to guess/hope that the quads are just a signpost and wont be used as much as you would think.
they replaced the committee looking at top 25, top 50 and top 100 wins and losses outside the top 150...so yeah I would say they are going to be pretty important...they are very prominent on the team sheet
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Nebraska
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Nebraska
its hard to feel sorry for Nebby when they are resting NCAA hopes on beating Michigan with their next best win Maryland...best OOC win Boston College and a non conference SOS of 266 and overal SOS of 101
You almost never get much credit for losses. It’s wins that matter to the committee.
Also not sure a loss to a team still in last place in their league is considered good even if that team later pulled off some massive upsets. St Johns probably won’t even be eligible for the NIT.
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Not a huge fan of Savannah State's up-tempo style of play for the MEAC tournament. They've lost two in a row and won a bunch of close games all year. I think the are ripe for the taking in their opener or semifinal game at the latest. I'd go with A&T or red-hot Hampton.
Palm
Last 4 In
TEAM RPI
TEXAS(16-12) 54
BUTLER(19-10) 34
FLORIDA(17-11) 64
SYRACUSE(18-10) 46
First 4 Out
TEAM RPI
BAYLOR(17-11) 60
UTAH(17-9) 49
WASHINGTON(18-9) 48
LOUISVILLE(18-10)
Palm says on Omaha radio show that NU must win out including Big 10 tourney and get auto bid to get in.
no major qualms with either ofo the top w ...Lunardi is solid in the end but his bracket before the final day is usually showing his biases toward certain conferences like the ACC or the A10 even given his ties to Philly. Palm is good...his biases tend toward the SEC and Pac 12
disagree....if they beat Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State in succession to make Big 10 finals..that will be enough
there will be some schools that will play their way out of the tourney..there are a good number of SEC and Big 12 schools teetering on the edge of finishing 7-11 in league and thats a big no no
Just got good news about PSU game for NU. Mike Watkins has been ruled out with a knee injury. He killed NU in game at Happy Valley.
I think they have a shot by beating PSU and Michigan and being competitive with MSU. The big wins are lacking but a 23 win B1G team is tough to ignore.
Going 11-3 to close out the season would help too. Of course, it depends on the upsets, auto bids, etc.
That’s moronic. So a win verse a full strength Texas A&M team is worth them same when that had injuries. Oh that makes a lot of sense lol
The committee takes into consideration when a team had injuries that impacted their play
I think they need another win. I think that gets them in. But if it’s a win and 2 loses and a quick exit in the BET they will be a 13 seed.
No Desi no beat St. John’s.
Playing for seeding which is more important than getting in unless on fringe. Once they beat Providence on the road they are absolutely in now.
Providence and Creighton are the ones worrying now and Marquette lurking.
SHU is in! Book it.
Playing for seeding which is more important than getting in unless on fringe. Once they beat Providence on the road they are absolutely in now.
Providence and Creighton are the ones worrying now and Marquette lurking.
SHU is in! Book it.
there are many teams in worse shape...for starters in the BE, Creighton and Providence have the most to worry though PC has those big wins
2 tidbits re: Selection Sunday and Bracketology:
- Selection Sunday will be live on TBS this year - not CBS.
- The Bracketologist on CBS Sports Network is Howie Schwab. For those who remember "Stump the Schwab" on ESPN - yep that's him.
Talking about the Schwab, Piscataway Mike and myself auditioned to be on the show in Boston (at a bar across from Fenway) and we both passed but unfortunately neither of us were called in by ESPN.
We were up in Boston that weekend for a NCAA weekend in Worcester MA with Mike's brother and witnessed the epic double OT game when Vermont upset Cuse. It felt like the entire state of Vermont was at that game. Memories!
- Selection Sunday will be live on TBS this year - not CBS.
- The Bracketologist on CBS Sports Network is Howie Schwab. For those who remember "Stump the Schwab" on ESPN - yep that's him.
Talking about the Schwab, Piscataway Mike and myself auditioned to be on the show in Boston (at a bar across from Fenway) and we both passed but unfortunately neither of us were called in by ESPN.
We were up in Boston that weekend for a NCAA weekend in Worcester MA with Mike's brother and witnessed the epic double OT game when Vermont upset Cuse. It felt like the entire state of Vermont was at that game. Memories!
ugh thats a pretty bad idea by CBS....people who casually watch will not find it, they will think its on cbs not see it and then immediately switch to espn...dont know why they would do that...almost like with NBC and the Olympics putting alot stuff on NBC Sports Channel
who is Howie Schwab? Wasnt Jerry Palm doing bracketology for cbs?
wait you auditioned to host your show with Mike..now that would be a laugh riot, I would pay for that...and Tom as the sidekick in the background with the one liners..lol
I guess you’d prefer to pretend Northwestern was really one of the 25 best teams earlier this year and not just horribly overrated at the time.
[roll]
You think the committee has the time/knowledge to look at every single roster for every single game to check for injuries?
Not what I said at all. But some teams are stronger at certain points because of injuries. If they do take injuries into account than that’s different. Minnesota, for example should be considered a good win before everything went completely south
No, but some teams are drastically different. And it’s pretty well known when they are
they do account for major injuries. But most teams that are drastically different now from preseason has nothing to do with injuries, just simply teams being overrated or underrated. You don't want to credit teams for wins that appeared great in November but in hindsight are nothing special.
recapping last night
big action in Pac 10 as both Washington and UCLA who were in the last 4 in line lose....Washington fell at Stanford while UCLA got picked off at Utah. Big win for the Utes in their chances. Very muddled Pac 12 bubble..all 3 are very hard to seperate right now and actually 4 of them when you put USC in there. ASU meanwhile missed a shot at maybe locking in by losing to Oregon...still look good but why? Oregon now moving to the outer fringes of contention.
Houston loses at Memphis...its not the kind of loss you want, Houston still on the good side of bubble but another screwup before AAC tourney and they could be in trouble
St Marys avoided an upset and is looking solid right now
big action in Pac 10 as both Washington and UCLA who were in the last 4 in line lose....Washington fell at Stanford while UCLA got picked off at Utah. Big win for the Utes in their chances. Very muddled Pac 12 bubble..all 3 are very hard to seperate right now and actually 4 of them when you put USC in there. ASU meanwhile missed a shot at maybe locking in by losing to Oregon...still look good but why? Oregon now moving to the outer fringes of contention.
Houston loses at Memphis...its not the kind of loss you want, Houston still on the good side of bubble but another screwup before AAC tourney and they could be in trouble
St Marys avoided an upset and is looking solid right now
Except Texas has played a very tough schedule (#4 nationally by KenPom opponent rank). Imagine some of the other bubble teams facing their slate and they'd likely have an equally unimpressive W/L record or give Texas the easy slate of somebody like Nebraska and you'd see a much prettier record. They just don't get any gimmies. They also have some nice wins like Butler, @Alabama, Texas Tech, TCU, and sweeping Oklahoma.
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While it is reasonable to say the Big Ten is kinda down this year, the Pac 12 is just f'in terrible. It's almost hard to call them a major conference. They rate closer to the AAC and Mountain West than they do to the Big Ten in KenPom. They only have 2 teams in the top 50 of KenPom (#23 Arizona and #37 ASU) and 4 teams below #100. It's slightly prettier if you like something like RPI, but even that admits they still suck.
yes...alot garbage...UCLA, USC, Washington, Utah and now that ASU is slipping the overall profile is going down...Remember Arizona is not a dominant type team either so yeah when it gets down to it, Nebby and PSU may fair better than anticipated against the Pac 12 schools.
I think there is a legit chance that they get only 3 schools this year. I have them getting 4 right now, they will not get more than that.
I think there is a legit chance that they get only 3 schools this year. I have them getting 4 right now, they will not get more than that.
Except for last year the PAC 12 is notorious for being grossly under-rated.
Having said that with all the Arizona stuff all bets are off. USC has injuries. Washington slumping. Utah is hot. Oregon lurking.
I can see a situation where only Utah, ASU, and UCLA get in opening door for Nebraska and PSU. Also opens door for St. Mary's if there was any doubt.
Pac 12 needs Cal and Stanford to get better. Both bad years.