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OT: Winter Storm Sat Night/Sunday (2/17-18)?

R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
Me likey...



Edit: here's the text from that SPC report..

Mesoscale Discussion 0069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Pennsylvania...Northern New
Jersey...Southern New York...and Western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 172332Z - 180330Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour are
possible for the next few hours this evening from southeastern
Pennsylvania into the New York City vicinity.

DISCUSSION...An approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough and
low-level warm advection are contributing to ascent across the
region. As precipitation spreads east-northeastward across the
area, melting/evaporating hydrometeors will eventually saturate and
cool the low-level profiles, resulting in snow reaching the ground.
The latest high-resolution numerical guidance generally supports
snowfall rates around or exceeding 1 inch per hour for the next few
hours, as the system moves rapidly to the east-northeast.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0069.html
 
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R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
RU848789 said:
Just ripping here and it dropped from 35 to 33F in the last 15 minutes of mod/heavy snow. About 3/8" on the ground in the last 15-20 minutes, easily enough for snow to start accumulating on paved surfaces on our street, as expected.
Click to expand...
Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.
 
A

APKnight

All-Conference
Nov 21, 2013
1,532
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RU848789 said:
Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.
Click to expand...

Where are you? High Point?
 
O

OTBOTOR

All-Conference
Aug 28, 2014
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Big@ss snowflakes in Jersey City. Pavement’s just wet. My thermometer reads 37 degrees.
 
R

Rutgers1976

Senior
Dec 30, 2005
3,438
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Started snowing in New Providence @I-78 just before 6:00 there's now well over 2" of wet snow out less than 90 minutes later.
 
MulletCork

MulletCork

All-Conference
Sep 1, 2012
2,679
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Not much more than a coating on the pavement here in Scotch Plains.

Best thing about this crap is it will be gone as soon as it came.
 
Sweet Pea's Corner

Sweet Pea's Corner

All-American
Sep 10, 2001
17,837
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RU848789 said:
Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.
Click to expand...


I thought you don't make predictions? hhhmmmm
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
RU848789 said:
Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.
Click to expand...
Up to 2" as of 7:30 pm, which is slightly over 1" per hour rates still and snowing heaviliy - heaviest snow of the winter for me. At this point, given the SPC notice and the radar, I think I'm going to bust low on my 4.5" forecast for my house. Reports of 5-7" in eastern PA, like Lancaster, Reading and towards the Lehigh Valley.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
248,673
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RU848789 said:
Up to 2" as of 7:30 pm, which is slightly over 1" per hour rates still and snowing heaviliy - heaviest snow of the winter for me. At this point, given the SPC notice and the radar, I think I'm going to bust low on my 4.5" forecast for my house. Reports of 5-7" in eastern PA, like Lancaster, Reading and towards the Lehigh Valley.
Click to expand...


its going to wind down around 11 so not sure why you think you will get more than 5 inches
 
K

knightfan7

Heisman
Jul 30, 2003
95,816
69,659
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Changed over from rain to snow within the past 10 minutes here. Big flakes but not sticking yet.
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
For anyone in NE NJ/NYC/Hudson Valley/CT:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-103>106-NYZ067-069>073-180230-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern New
Haven-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western Passaic-Western
Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Rockland-Orange-Bronx-Southern
Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Northern Westchester-
736 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT FAIRFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAVEN...PASSAIC...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN ORANGE...
BRONX...ROCKLAND...and NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES...

A band of heavy snow will develop and continue over the region
through 930 pm.

Visibilities will drop to a quarter of a mile or less in this area,
with snowfall rates of 1 to possibly 2 inches per hour.

Roads are expected to become quickly snow covered, with travel
becoming difficult due to the poor visibilities and icy roads.
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
bac2therac said:
its going to wind down around 11 so not sure why you think you will get more than 5 inches
Click to expand...
Please tell me your math isn't that bad. Have 2" as of 7:30 pm and if I continue to get >1" per hour for the next 3.5 hours (until 11:00 pm), I will then have more than 5". Not sure those rates will be sustained but the SPC statement said they should be for a few more hours.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
248,673
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will you get the same rates all the way until 11...thats your big question
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
Warnings just issued for ~6" or so for Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Sussex, Warren, Poconos, Lehigh Valley, upper Bucks/Montco. Not for Middlesex, lol. Counties in pink are warnings. Some will get well beyond 6" with 3-4+" already on the ground in some of these locations (Morristown, Allentown, etc.). GFS can suck it.



Edit: here's what the NWS just said...

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
755 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
We are getting total snow reports up to 6 inches across parts of
eastern PA and northern NJ (see latest PNSPHI product) and snow
continues to fall over those areas. Therefore we have upgraded
to a winter storm warning there. Radar mosaic loop indicates
snow starting to taper off for Berks Co and vicinity, but
moderate to heavy snow should continue farther east for a couple
more hours.
 
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DJ Spanky

DJ Spanky

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
48,707
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Just went out to put the grill on: we are at 5.5 inches right now. Holy crap, this storm is out performing.
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
RU848789 said:
Up to 2" as of 7:30 pm, which is slightly over 1" per hour rates still and snowing heaviliy - heaviest snow of the winter for me. At this point, given the SPC notice and the radar, I think I'm going to bust low on my 4.5" forecast for my house. Reports of 5-7" in eastern PA, like Lancaster, Reading and towards the Lehigh Valley.
Click to expand...

Up to 2.75" as of 8:00 pm, which is 3/4" in the last half hour or 1.5" per hour. Wow. Pouring snow out there - true heavy snow with <1/4 mile visibility. Think we get to 5-6" before it ends around 11-12. 32F and roads are a mess in the region. Heard 4.5" in Morristown already.
 
H

HeavenUniv.

Heisman
Sep 21, 2004
135,536
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DJ,you will think of any reason to have a tailgate. I guess tomorrow you have Daytona 500 Day and Presidents Day on Monday.Not sure about Tuesday.
 
H

HeavenUniv.

Heisman
Sep 21, 2004
135,536
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Maybe half an inch in Manchester,but it has gone from rain to snow in the last z30 minutes or so.
 
Sweet Pea's Corner

Sweet Pea's Corner

All-American
Sep 10, 2001
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RU848789 said:
Warnings just issued for ~6" or so for Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Sussex, Warren, Poconos, Lehigh Valley, upper Bucks/Montco. Not for Middlesex, lol. Counties in pink are warnings. Some will get well beyond 6" with 3-4+" already on the ground in some of these locations (Morristown, Allentown, etc.). GFS can suck it.

Click to expand...

I just posted that but this was updated at 4:40 pm according to my NWS site.
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,222
44,301
113
RocktheRac said:
I just posted that but this was updated at 4:40 pm according to my NWS site.
Click to expand...

No, they were just issued about 30 minutes ago...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
741 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
741 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 inches
are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. The
snow may fall at 1 to 2 inches per hour at times in parts of the
region, resulting in rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm warning
 
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