Jenn Lahmers on Fox is easily the hottest woman on NYC news and is smokin' for the general population.
In all seriousness...
She always seems to never be looking straight on. We get a 3/4 view.
OT: Winter Storm Sat Night/Sunday (2/17-18)?
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
She always seems to never be looking straight on. We get a 3/4 view.
No way. Ceiling is about 8", simply because it's a progressive, relatively fast moving storm that will only dump precip for about 7-8 hours. Somewhere might see 8" where the best bands set up, but I think most places where it's all snow will see more like 4-6".
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This pisses me offNWS updated their map a little while ago. Not much change, except to expand the 4-5" area more to the NW of 95 and SW along 95 - 80% of it looks about the same.
@RU848789, what is this 90/10 thing they are talking about...NWS updated their map a little while ago. Not much change, except to expand the 4-5" area more to the NW of 95 and SW along 95 - 80% of it looks about the same.
http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Scroll down to page 5 in the link.
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Ok, just for fun, since we're now only 24 hours from the start of the event with respect to tonight's 00Z model suite (data inputs from 7 pm EST), I'm going to post the snowfall maps for all of the models as they come out in this one post. I don't see a lot of value in doing this a few days out, but we ought to be getting close to model consenus now, although that's not a given.
I'm hoping I can find the UK somewhere on line, as I don't have access to that map, but someone who does often posts it and I'm hoping I can figure out how to post the Euro map, which I have access to, but haven't been able to paste for some reason. Mostly using Tropical Tidbits maps, as they show sleet as snow, which I think is important, as sleet is just as impactful as snow (the Pivotal maps ignore sleet, which would show 3" of sleet as nothing).
First up is the 00Z 12 km NAM which is out and is pretty snowy: 5-8" from Wilmington to NYC to Hartford. Snowfall amounts decrease as one nears the NJ Shore and well to the NW of 95. The 00Z 3 km NAM (higher resolution, but same model essentially - handles convective banding better) is similar, as it should be
Here's the 0Z RGEM, the regional mesoscale model from Canada, which is somewhat similar to the NAM (both mesoscale models). It's a bit less snow for 95 - more like 2-4" with less towards the coast.
And the 00Z GFS continues to keep most of the precip well to our south (as rain), with only about 0.3" of liquid falling along I-95, translating to 1-3" of snow. It's been an outlier for 2 days, but I guess it could be right (not the way to bet though).
And here's the 00Z Canadian global model, the CMC, which is pretty similar to the run from this morning, showing a general 2-3" for the 95 corridor, with less towards the shore.
Another one: the 00Z HRDPS, the high resolution versoin of the mesoscale Canadian (RGEM), kind of like the 3 km NAM vs. 12 km NAM. Showing 3-5" for most of the 95 corridor.
Can't find UK snowfall maps (think they're restricted for some reason, but have seen a couple of pros post them), but the UK is showing a fair amount of precip (0.6-0.8" liquid equivalent, which would be 6-8" of snow if all snow - not a given) and the previous runs have had similar amounts, mostly as snow; temps are at or just above 32F, so likely snow.
And last but not least, the Euro just came in and it holds serve, looking almost identical to the last 2 runs. Fairly large 4-6" swath bounded on the SE from about Philly to Middletown (and includes almost all of LI) and bounded on the NW from about Allentown to Danbury. The 2" line runs from about Dover, DE to Toms River. Can't paste Weather.US Euro maps for some reason.
7 am edit - woke up and found the Euro map...
So, what have we learned? Not much changed really. GFS still an outlier. Higher resolution models (Euro, NAM, RGEM, HRDPS) all showing more snow and these models should likely do better with thermal profiles in a marginal situation. Local media calling for 3-6" for most of I-95 and 1-3" towards the coast. My guess for my house is 4.5" of wet, sloppy snow.
I'm guessing the NWS might have just enough uncertainty in reaching 6" warning levels to mostly go with winter weather advisories for 3-6" of snow for the counties currently under watches, especially those along and east of I-95 from Mercer to Middlesex to SI/LI (and maybe Bucks/Montco in PA). Maybe the next tier to the NW might get warnings for 4-7" of snow, like Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. But probably not the Poconos/Lehigh Valley where they'll get less snow - just advisories there - and also advisories for PA/NJ counties bordering the Delaware south of Trenton, as well as Monmouth and maybe Ocean, I'd think.
I'm hoping I can find the UK somewhere on line, as I don't have access to that map, but someone who does often posts it and I'm hoping I can figure out how to post the Euro map, which I have access to, but haven't been able to paste for some reason. Mostly using Tropical Tidbits maps, as they show sleet as snow, which I think is important, as sleet is just as impactful as snow (the Pivotal maps ignore sleet, which would show 3" of sleet as nothing).
First up is the 00Z 12 km NAM which is out and is pretty snowy: 5-8" from Wilmington to NYC to Hartford. Snowfall amounts decrease as one nears the NJ Shore and well to the NW of 95. The 00Z 3 km NAM (higher resolution, but same model essentially - handles convective banding better) is similar, as it should be
Here's the 0Z RGEM, the regional mesoscale model from Canada, which is somewhat similar to the NAM (both mesoscale models). It's a bit less snow for 95 - more like 2-4" with less towards the coast.
And the 00Z GFS continues to keep most of the precip well to our south (as rain), with only about 0.3" of liquid falling along I-95, translating to 1-3" of snow. It's been an outlier for 2 days, but I guess it could be right (not the way to bet though).
And here's the 00Z Canadian global model, the CMC, which is pretty similar to the run from this morning, showing a general 2-3" for the 95 corridor, with less towards the shore.
Another one: the 00Z HRDPS, the high resolution versoin of the mesoscale Canadian (RGEM), kind of like the 3 km NAM vs. 12 km NAM. Showing 3-5" for most of the 95 corridor.
Can't find UK snowfall maps (think they're restricted for some reason, but have seen a couple of pros post them), but the UK is showing a fair amount of precip (0.6-0.8" liquid equivalent, which would be 6-8" of snow if all snow - not a given) and the previous runs have had similar amounts, mostly as snow; temps are at or just above 32F, so likely snow.
And last but not least, the Euro just came in and it holds serve, looking almost identical to the last 2 runs. Fairly large 4-6" swath bounded on the SE from about Philly to Middletown (and includes almost all of LI) and bounded on the NW from about Allentown to Danbury. The 2" line runs from about Dover, DE to Toms River. Can't paste Weather.US Euro maps for some reason.
7 am edit - woke up and found the Euro map...
So, what have we learned? Not much changed really. GFS still an outlier. Higher resolution models (Euro, NAM, RGEM, HRDPS) all showing more snow and these models should likely do better with thermal profiles in a marginal situation. Local media calling for 3-6" for most of I-95 and 1-3" towards the coast. My guess for my house is 4.5" of wet, sloppy snow.
I'm guessing the NWS might have just enough uncertainty in reaching 6" warning levels to mostly go with winter weather advisories for 3-6" of snow for the counties currently under watches, especially those along and east of I-95 from Mercer to Middlesex to SI/LI (and maybe Bucks/Montco in PA). Maybe the next tier to the NW might get warnings for 4-7" of snow, like Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. But probably not the Poconos/Lehigh Valley where they'll get less snow - just advisories there - and also advisories for PA/NJ counties bordering the Delaware south of Trenton, as well as Monmouth and maybe Ocean, I'd think.
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These are somewhat experimental products the NWS has been playing with for a couple of years. They give the credible least snowfall map (90% likely to be more snow than this minimum) and credible most snowfall map (90% likely to be less snowfall than this max) to give a sense of the potential most and least snow for the event. I like them, as they give a sense of the uncertainty of an event and this one is very high - you don't usually see 1" or less as the bottom 24 hours out from a predicted 4-6" snowfall. The winter weather link shows all of these maps for snowfall (and ice when relevant).
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Agree - NAM has also been pretty good this year - it was the first model to sniff out the move back NW towards the coast for the 1/4 event that most models still had going out to sea at that point. And when the Euro, UK and NAM all agree, that's a pretty potent combo, as the NWS said earlier today. My confidence is growing for a 4-6" event for I-95 at least. Much harder to predict where the rain starts to dominate to the SE.
Looks like storm is losing its luster. Going to be warmer then originally thought for most of the area. Snow totals taking a big hit.
Ok, just for fun, since we're now only 24 hours from the start of the event with respect to tonight's 00Z model suite (data inputs from 7 pm EST), I'm going to post the snowfall maps for all of the models as they come out in this one post. I don't see a lot of value in doing this a few days out, but we ought to be getting close to model consenus now, although that's not a given.
I'm hoping I can find the UK somewhere on line, as I don't have access to that map, but someone who does often posts it and I'm hoping I can figure out how to post the Euro map, which I have access to, but haven't been able to paste for some reason. Mostly using Tropical Tidbits maps, as they show sleet as snow, which I think is important, as sleet is just as impactful as snow (the Pivotal maps ignore sleet, which would show 3" of sleet as nothing).
First up is the 00Z 12 km NAM which is out and is pretty snowy: 5-8" from Wilmington to NYC to Hartford. Snowfall amounts decrease as one nears the NJ Shore and well to the NW of 95. The 00Z 3 km NAM (higher resolution, but same model essentially - handles convective banding better) is similar, as it should be
Here's the 0Z RGEM, the regional mesoscale model from Canada, which is somewhat similar to the NAM (both mesoscale models). It's a bit less snow for 95 - more like 2-4" with less towards the coast.
And the 00Z GFS continues to keep most of the precip well to our south (as rain), with only about 0.3" of liquid falling along I-95, translating to 1-3" of snow. It's been an outlier for 2 days, but I guess it could be right (not the way to bet though).
And here's the 00Z Canadian global model, the CMC, which is pretty similar to the run from this morning, showing a general 2-3" for the 95 corridor, with less towards the shore.
Another one: the 00Z HRDPS, the high resolution versoin of the mesoscale Canadian (RGEM), kind of like the 3 km NAM vs. 12 km NAM. Showing 3-5" for most of the 95 corridor.
Can't find UK snowfall maps (think they're restricted for some reason, but have seen a couple of pros post them), but the UK is showing a fair amount of precip (0.6-0.8" liquid equivalent, which would be 6-8" of snow if all snow - not a given) and the previous runs have had similar amounts, mostly as snow; temps are at or just above 32F, so likely snow.
And last but not least, the Euro just came in and it holds serve, looking almost identical to the last 2 runs. Fairly large 4-6" swath bounded on the SE from about Philly to Middletown (and includes almost all of LI) and bounded on the NW from about Allentown to Danbury. The 2" line runs from about Dover, DE to Toms River. Can't paste Weather.US Euro maps for some reason.
7 am edit - woke up and found the Euro map...
So, what have we learned? Not much changed really. GFS still an outlier. Higher resolution models (Euro, NAM, RGEM, HRDPS) all showing more snow and these models should likely do better with thermal profiles in a marginal situation. Local media calling for 3-6" for most of I-95 and 1-3" towards the coast. My guess for my house is 4.5" of wet, sloppy snow.
I'm guessing the NWS might have just enough uncertainty in reaching 6" warning levels to mostly go with winter weather advisories for 3-6" of snow for the counties currently under watches, especially those along and east of I-95 from Mercer to Middlesex to SI/LI (and maybe Bucks/Montco in PA). Maybe the next tier to the NW might get warnings for 4-7" of snow, like Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. But probably not the Poconos/Lehigh Valley where they'll get less snow - just advisories there - and also advisories for PA/NJ counties bordering the Delaware south of Trenton, as well as Monmouth and maybe Ocean, I'd think.
Did ok with my NWS prediction last night, as the NWS in Philly converted the watches to advisories for 3-5" of snow for the I-95 counties and NW of there (no warnings for Mt. Holly counties), i.e., for Chester/Montco/Bucks, Mercer, Middlesex, the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Morris, Sussex, and Warren. And the NWS in NYC converted the watches to warnings for 4-7" of snow for Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Westchester, Bronx, Manhattan, northern Queens, and northern Nassau/Suffolk. Interestingly, the NWS in NYC left watches up for SI, southern NYC and southern Nassau/Suffolk, as they are predicting 4-7" of snow there, but have less confidence in reaching those numbers than in the warning areas, due to mix/rain.
And Philly/Delaware and adjacent SNJ (Salem, Gloucester, Camden and NW Burlington and western Monmouth) all have advisories for roughly 2-3" of snow - these counties are most at risk of getting little to no snow due to mixing/rain and similarly the rain could also hold down accumulations even up to I-95, as some media outlets are predicting (but not the NWS). Still a very close call with marginal temps.
Also, timing moved up by 1-2 hours with precip starting around 5-6 pm, as rain for most, but quickly changing to snow for the areas under advisories/warnings, with evaporational cooling bringing temps from the mid-30s at the start to around 32F by early/mid evening. The bulk of the precip should be over by 1-2 am. Roads will have a tough time accumulating during the first few hours, where it's snowing due to temps in the 34-35F range (near/along 95), but once snowfall rates go up to 3/4" per hour or so (and temps drop to near 32F), snow will accumulate on roads. Maps are up.
Not from the NWS - they stayed the course on snowfall predictions. Not saying they won't be wrong especially for areas along and SE of 95, where there may be more rain than they're predicting, but they have not reduced snowfall totals.
Philly News backing off. Philadelphia won't hit freezing mark, storm starting sooner.
And all the NYC TV stations have 3-6" along and near and NW of 95 (with the 3" line being close to the SE border of Middlesex and Mecer with Monmouth, down to about Philly), with 1-3" towards the shore. While TWC only has 1-3" along I-95. We'll know soon enough which camp is correct.
WeatherWorks just cut their snow forecast in half for southern Somerset - down to 2-3 inches. Narrative is storm is moving too fast.
It's just about time to rely on the short range, high resolution models. Here's the 12Z HRRR which just came out and largely supports the NWS forcast. However, the 6Z GFS is still pretty light with precip/snow (1-2" for I-95 with some rain), while the 6Z NAM is still a good hit with 3-6" for near/along 95. This is why making a forecast is so difficult, lol.
Edit - and the 12Z NAM continues with showing a pretty good hit, with a general 5-8" along and near and NW of 95 and even 3-5" 15-25 miles SE of 95.
Edit - and the 12Z NAM continues with showing a pretty good hit, with a general 5-8" along and near and NW of 95 and even 3-5" 15-25 miles SE of 95.
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the storm starting earlier is definitely going to be play a factor...a window of 6PM to 2 AM as opposed to 10PM-6AM means warmer at the start. We may see the 3-4 inches on grassy but maybe 2-3 on paved surfaces
12zNAM with Kuchera ratio map because good luck with 10-1 ratios map
12zNAM with Kuchera ratio map because good luck with 10-1 ratios map
Mmmmm....it would be almost no snow for most...and if it turns out right......
Daddy like.
That looks like exactly what 6ABC forecastGFS was wetter but warmer...wow...generally most think its out to lunch since its been on its own albeit it has been fairly consistent..it would be almost no snow for most...wow if this model is wrong like that..why are we using it and if it turns out right......
That's because many sources use the GFS blindly, because it's "American" even though it has the 4th or 5th best verification scores, well behind the Euro and UK. But once in awhile, it's right ("blizzard" of Jan-15 for example, but a totally different setup than this), so if it's right this time, it'll be a huge coup. Wouldn't bet that way though, as this is a question of thermal profiles, which the GFS usually struggles with vs. the mesoscale models, which are all showing colder solutions, whereas Jan-15 was all about getting the track right, which the GFS did. Also, GFS is the only model not showing at least 3" along 95/NJ TPK from Philly to NYC.
If it's not snowing decently by 7-8 pm along I-95, then the GFS may end up being right. Also, it doesn't matter when the storm starts, with regard to accumulations for the most part - by far the most important thing is snowfall rate and if we get the 3/4" per hour rates being forecasted, snow will accumulate everywhere, even if it's 33-35F at the surface. Simple math problem really.
Probably not too wet or warm. Ones like that are usually cold fish and rely on looks. Prefer a 6 or 7 with the Avis mentality- we try harder.
Actually Dan Zarrow is fairly good. Don't confuse him with the radio hosts. Two separate items here.
The problem with Zarrow is that he is rarely live on the weejend and its a recording from Friday. And I only listen on the weekend when its music. The weekday talk show hosts suck!
And this is one time where a name isn't an exaggeration:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Big Joe is the only reason I listen to that station. Have known him going back to his DJ days at Jenkinsons.
Here's earthlight's map (he's John Homenuk) from NY Metro Weather and one of the driving forces behind 33andrain. He might be my favorite pro these days. Explains things very well and is very insightful. It's actually quite similar to the NWS map...
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018...ted-northeast-tonight-moderate-accumulations/
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018...ted-northeast-tonight-moderate-accumulations/