Are we going to be any good?

[soundcrib]

Is Geo Baker Jeff Greer?

 

[MadRU]

I'm a little surprised people are not discussing Freeman stepping up some. Towards the end the season he seemed more in control less crazy spin moves. I can see him adding a few more points on the good side of the scoreboard.

To add to initial thought, he also started using his step back fade away to get space to get his shot off against taller players.

He used a running hook a few times to add to his array of deliveries.

And his face up game seems to be what he has been working on most this offseason.

To go along with his offensive rebounding aggressiveness, I can see him adding a few to his totals.

 

[kcg88]

Baker looks solid but to think he'll be an immediate upgrade on Nigel is foolish. Here's a list of 3* freshman in the B1G last year who played meaningful minutes and had an offensive rating above 100:

D'Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin
Cordell Pemsl, Iowa
Micah Potter, Ohio State

That's the entire list. Pemsl and Potter are both big men but if Baker can do what Trice did last year (42% on 3PA) then I'd be ecstatic. I'll also note that Trice shot WORSE inside the paint than Nigel did: 34% vs. 38%... and 38% is quite bad!

Johnson also got steals at the same rate as Corey Sanders while fouling half as frequently.

I'm excited but let's not go overboard.

 

[RUChoppin]

I think Doucore can give us everything Gettys did save the post up moves. Gettys ability to post up and score was HUGE during the out of conference schedule. Really saved us in some games. I don't know where that production will come from this year. It wasn't as much of a factor in big ten play.

One thing Gettys had, too, was composure and consistency. He passed well and limited fouls/turnovers, which are things that are tough for true freshmen bigs to come in and do. If Doucoure can bring that to the table out of the gate along with increased athleticism, that would bode very well for the season (and the future).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Baker looks solid but to think he'll be an immediate upgrade on Nigel is foolish. Here's a list of 3* freshman in the B1G last year who played meaningful minutes and had an offensive rating above 100:

D'Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin
Cordell Pemsl, Iowa
Micah Potter, Ohio State

That's the entire list. Pemsl and Potter are both big men but if Baker can do what Trice did last year (42% on 3PA) then I'd be ecstatic. I'll also note that Trice shot WORSE inside the paint than Nigel did: 34% vs. 38%... and 38% is quite bad!

Johnson also got steals at the same rate as Corey Sanders while fouling half as frequently.

I'm excited but let's not go overboard.

I am a stat head.........however I find little use for this analysis.

Few points
1. there is nothing defensive in offensive efficiency numbers
2. steals have a very low correlation to total impact on the defensive end
3. you aren't factoring chemistry in to the equation
4. you aren't factoring in Nigel and Corey having similar skill sets and having ZERO
5. how many freshman in B1G don't have great 2 guards already on team.

The biggest thing you are missing with Nigel Johnson is that there is NO SYNERGY with him being on the floor with Sanders. The hope/expectation is that Baker and Sanders are a fit. I wouldn't think Baker needs the ball in his hands to be successful.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

One thing Gettys had, too, was composure and consistency. He passed well and limited fouls/turnovers, which are things that are tough for true freshmen bigs to come in and do. If Doucoure can bring that to the table out of the gate along with increased athleticism, that would bode very well for the season (and the future).

We will miss Gettys in some ways. However we will be better with him not on the floor in others.

 

[kcg88]

I am a stat head.........however I find little use for this analysis.

Few points
1. there is nothing defensive in offensive efficiency numbers
2. steals have a very low correlation to total impact on the defensive end
3. you aren't factoring chemistry in to the equation
4. you aren't factoring in Nigel and Corey having similar skill sets and having ZERO
5. how many freshman in B1G don't have great 2 guards already on team.

The biggest thing you are missing with Nigel Johnson is that there is NO SYNERGY with him being on the floor with Sanders. The hope/expectation is that Baker and Sanders are a fit. I wouldn't think Baker needs the ball in his hands to be successful.

1. Expecting a freshman to be a plus defender is a tough ask.
2. The steals/fouls thing was a bit of a throwaway line, I admit.
3. I think the chemistry difference is negligible as well. Remember, Nigel practiced with the team for a year (under Eddie, though, so who knows how much he actually got out of it) before playing last year.

Points 4, 5, and the postscript are certainly valid points. I think the team will be better this year, but it will be mostly because of better shooting from Sanders, Freeman, Williams, and Chiam plus guys having a year of experience under Pike. Going from Nigel Johnson to Geo Baker is, IMO, close to a wash for this season. I would be extremely happy to be wrong.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Baker won't be a plus defender as a freshman. I want him to be a willing defender.

i am not certain if the staff tried to get him to leave, but I know a tear was not shed.

 

[BillyC80]

Different players give you different things. Maybe we should look at what our 3 new players, Mensah, Doucore and Baker give us (as yet unknown) versus which parts of Gettys and Nigel's game they will replace.

Edit: In light of Pike's comments, we need to add the contribution of Myles to the mix.

 

[mikefla]

I will always refer to LAST year as the year we "turned it around". We earned RESPECT!

After watching media day I am convinced we will be an upgrade at every position. The returning guys have gotten better & the new guys add some serious talent & depth.

I look forward to getting even MORE RESPECT!

 

[bac2therac]

need to slow down on Baker...while Nigel was frustrating he did provide offense, you cannot expect Baker as a freshmen in this league to just slip in and start producing at any consistent level..ditto for Doucoure. Losing Getty is a big loss that will take much of the season to replace. Thats why there could be a slip up early against an inferior opponent. I think overall teamwise we will be better collectively as the season progresses but still think talent wise we are at a serious disadvantage vs probably 10-11 other Big 10 schools

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

need to slow down on Baker...while Nigel was frustrating he did provide offense, you cannot expect Baker as a freshmen in this league to just slip in and start producing at any consistent level..ditto for Doucoure. Losing Getty is a big loss that will take much of the season to replace. Thats why there could be a slip up early against an inferior opponent. I think overall teamwise we will be better collectively as the season progresses but still think talent wise we are at a serious disadvantage vs probably 10-11 other Big 10 schools

Exactly. Gettys and Johnson were NCAA-experienced contributors. Doucoure and Baker are freshmen. I am hopeful with a year of consistent coaching under our belts and some improvement from the returning players, we can offset that and be a better team than last year, but it might take some time. I don’t expect to just waltz through the cupcake portion of OOC schedule (which is nearly all of it) unscathed.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Exactly. Gettys and Johnson were NCAA-experienced contributors. Doucoure and Baker are freshmen. I am hopeful with a year of consistent coaching under our belts and some improvement from the returning players, we can offset that and be a better team than last year, but it might take some time. I don’t expect to just waltz through the cupcake portion of OOC schedule (which is nearly all of it) unscathed.

Baker is better in every measurable category (offense, defense, length, ability to create his own shot etc vs Nigel Johnson.....it's not being critical of Nigel or saying he's not a quality player, he certainly is.....but we are approaching this season as if Nigel was contributing double digit scoring every night.....that didn't happen.....

Nigel's last 10 games were certainly better in league vs his first 10, but Baker is a better player, period.....That's not saying he's all B1G as a freshman, but he plays a smarter, efficient game and there will be ZERO dropoff in production.

That being said, there is only one basketball and you cannot move the program forward with too many guards that need the ball to be effective....Nigel required the ball to score most times and the same with Corey, because it's tougher to play two guards at that size....Baker is a legit 6'4 to 6'5" and provides a better defensive presence than Nigel....

Fans can only look at PPG as the comparison and miss the boat completely, but you have to be smarter and look at flow of the offense etc...

 

[RU-ROCS]

Baker looks solid but to think he'll be an immediate upgrade on Nigel is foolish. Here's a list of 3* freshman in the B1G last year who played meaningful minutes and had an offensive rating above 100:

D'Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin
Cordell Pemsl, Iowa
Micah Potter, Ohio State

That's the entire list. Pemsl and Potter are both big men but if Baker can do what Trice did last year (42% on 3PA) then I'd be ecstatic. I'll also note that Trice shot WORSE inside the paint than Nigel did: 34% vs. 38%... and 38% is quite bad!

Johnson also got steals at the same rate as Corey Sanders while fouling half as frequently.

I'm excited but let's not go overboard.

Fair point, but without knowing how many teams had open spots for freshman to fill and how many 3-stars were competing for those spots, it's not that persuasive. Also, coming from New Hampshire it is also possible that Geo's star ranking is under-rated. Here's to hoping that's the case.