The great uncertainty
At first, it seems silly that major schools would worry about broadcast rights money. After all, the Big Ten recently signed six-year deals with ESPN and Fox Sports worth a combined $2.64 billion. Those deals begin in the fall, and UM is expected to nearly double its share of broadcast revenue to about $40 million.
But there are cracks in the paint.
In 2013, ESPN had 99 million subscribers. It now has 90 million, its lowest subscriber base since 2005. Daniel Salmon, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, recently estimated that ESPN could lose about 4 percent of subscribers in fiscal 2017. Other insiders say the losses could be even worse. And those ex-subscribers take with them cash ESPN uses to fuel its billions of dollars in professional and college sports broadcast rights deals.
On the other hand, a PricewaterhouseCoopers sports industry report from October predicts that media rights spending will increase, from $18.2 billion this year to $21.2 billion by 2020. That's nearly double the total broadcast rights spending in 2011, which was $10.8 billion.
The uncertainty breeds varying levels of concern. Specifically, the proliferation of platforms and ways in which college sports are delivered to consumers raises financial questions, according to Karen Weaver, a sports-management professor at Drexel University and specialist in college media rights.