Big Ten Expansion

[Nosoj]

Since someone just liked a post I made here, lets look at some average viewer numbers for some of the teams discussed here for the 2015 season. All numbers come from here, which for some programs is pretty sparse as it doesn't include numbers for BTN, SEC Network, Pac-12 Network or CBS Sports Network, as non are Nielsen-rated.

I used average viewers to get more data points than the TV ratings. Obviously the more data points for a team, the more accurate the numbers are. It also gives us a good idea of who's actually on national broadcast telecasts as well.

Ohio State - 10 games listed - Average 6.871 million viewers per game
Michigan State - 9 games listed - 5.698 million viewers/game
Michigan - 9 games listed - 5.129 million viewers/game
Notre Dame - 12 games listed - 4.232 million viewers/game
Oklahoma - 11 games listed - 3.003 million viewers/game
Florida State - 10 games listed - 2.992 million viewers/game
Nebraska - 9 games listed - 2.853 million viewers/game
Penn State - 10 games listed - 2.480 million viewers/game
Texas - 10 games listed - 2.414 million viewers/game
UNC - 9 games listed - 2.351 million viewers/game
Virginia - 4 games listed - 2.325 million viewers/game
Rutgers - 3 games listed - 1.949 million viewers/game
Georgia Tech - 7 games listed - 1.831 million viewers/game
Missouri - 4 games listed - 1.708 million viewers/game
Maryland - 6 games listed - 1.172 million viewers/game

Adding to the info I posted above, that brings us to 3 years averages of:

Ohio State - 5.40 million
Michigan - 4.72 million
Notre Dame - 4.11 million
Florida State - 4.08 million
Nebraska - 3.04 million
Oklahoma - 2.67 million
Missouri - 2.64 million
Penn State - 2.50 million
Texas - 2.24 million
UNC - 1.95 million
Georgia Tech - 1.85 million
Virginia - 1.68 million
Rutgers - 1.30 million
Maryland - 1.27 million

Two years is minimal, but in a cord cutting future, Oklahoma (football) is a lot easier to monetize than UNC, UVA or GT (football). The question becomes is it enough to justify expanding instead of standing pat? Or is Notre Dame still on the table or possibly Florida State? Will those trends hold for Missouri and if they do, would Missouri even consider a move? Does UNC basketball bring enough ratings to offset their lower football ratings? I don't have the answers to any of that.

Basically, this is all a long winded way of saying that if the B1G does decide to expand again, I want and think they need big names. I don't want to see Ohio State vs. Virginia or Georgia Tech, I want to see Ohio State vs. Oklahoma. I want Ohio State vs. Texas. I want Ohio State vs. Florida State. Those games are what will sell BTN subscriptions in the unbundled future.

The trend did not hold for Missouri, as their viewers dropped way down with the performance of the team this year. Texas seems to be suffering from their extended bout with mediocrity as well. With Tier 1 negotiations approaching, now would be the time to make a move if they're going to, and I don't know if those numbers from UVa, UNC or GT justify it. And they certainly aren't numbers that would sell unbundled subscriptions if that's where we're going with everything.

 

[RUforlife]

Syracuse and UConn.. . . . just kidding.

 

[albanyknight]

Too me a Jersey guy Who's lived between Albany and Schenectady since 81 ....20 and 15 yrs NYC-Capitol Region....UVA sounds nice but the Irish bring baggage similar to UT.......and i'm Scottish on dads side and Irish on moms.....give me OK,UConn or VT/Kans/GT...

Also a Jersey guy who has lived up here since 1997. Still hard going into stores and seeing all of that Syracuse contraband.

 

[NickyNewark51]

Also a Jersey guy who has lived up here since 1997. Still hard going into stores and seeing all of that Syracuse contraband.

Be honest in my neighborhood in Schenectady i see more block R's though on cars...never see Cuse FB anything though FB ain't as big up here as Jersey...lots of NYC/NJ transplants like us...in the 70s we had great hoops and mediocre FB...good but on a lesser level..

 

[albanyknight]

I have to move to Schenectady. It is all Syracuse in Delmar.

 

[NickyNewark51]

I have to move to Schenectady. It is all Syracuse in Delmar.

lol....I've been here off and on for 30 yrs and Jersey plates all over..everyones related to someone from NYC/NJ...LOL...were taking over..

 

[RUJMM78]

I don't consider ND a good option.

Notre Dame always will be the number one option for the B1G but they will decline because they don't want to share resources.

 

[Queztastic]

The key is tv households as opposed to individual game ratings. I am not an expert on tv markets, but North Carolina has multiple tv markets. If you put them together (Charlotte #22, Raleigh-Durham #25, Greensboro #46, Greenville #99, Wilmington #130) that would constitute the #4 TV market and be very close to #3 Chicago.

If adding UNC means that the Big Ten Network will be carried for $1.00 by the cable carriers in all of those tv markets, that would be B1G $ for the conference.

 

[Nosoj]

The key is tv households as opposed to individual game ratings. I am not an expert on tv markets, but North Carolina has multiple tv markets. If you put them together (Charlotte #22, Raleigh-Durham #25, Greensboro #46, Greenville #99, Wilmington #130) that would constitute the #4 TV market and be very close to #3 Chicago.

If adding UNC means that the Big Ten Network will be carried for $1.00 by the cable carriers in all of those tv markets, that would be B1G $ for the conference.

That depends. Right now, as we speak, yes you want more TV households. Hence the invites for Rutgers and Maryland.

However, since 2010 cable subscribers have on a very steady downward trend. ESPN has lost 7 million subscribers in the last two years. If those trends continue, you're going to need product that people actually watch and will pay for, not just product in the area where the most people are.

 

[Queztastic]

That depends. Right now, as we speak, yes you want more TV households. Hence the invites for Rutgers and Maryland.

However, since 2010 cable subscribers have on a very steady downward trend. ESPN has lost 7 million subscribers in the last two years. If those trends continue, you're going to need product that people actually watch and will pay for, not just product in the area where the most people are.

True. Guess the B1G should try to get long-term rights deal then.

 

[BoogieKnight]

One of my favorites:

Oh man...I've never seen that video before. That is great. And I don't hate ND at all but it's still funny as hell and totally appropriate for the time it was made. Now at least they are back to being a decent private school program (like Stanford) but not close to the powerhouse of days of yore. I think those days are gone forever save for once every 10 years or so. That said, they are the only school I'd like to see in the B1G and since it won't ever happen or won't for a very, very, very long time (if schools MUST be in a conference to be in a playoff) then I want no expansion.

 

[RUaMoose_rivals]

You're crazy.

Lots of eyeballs in New England. If they were AAU, they'd have a reasonable shot.

The Big Ten's wet dream is ND and Texas. I don't see an ACC team given that agreement they have in place (forget what they call it). Realistically they go west and pick off two Big XII teams, perhaps Kansas and Texas

 

[TerryD1957]

Would love to see this B1G

4 Pods for a 20 team conference. Play 9 game schedule. Two pods pair up to for division for 2 years.

B1G East:
Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina

B1G Central
Michigan
Ohio State
MSU
Indiana
Purdue

B1G Great Lakes
Notre Dame
Northwestern
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota

B1G West
Iowa
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas

I think that you would be hard pressed to find even one ND administrator, alumni or fan who would want ND to have any part of that.

 

[cicero grimes]

Lots of eyeballs in New England. If they were AAU, they'd have a reasonable shot.

The Big Ten's wet dream is ND and Texas. I don't see an ACC team given that agreement they have in place (forget what they call it). Realistically they go west and pick off two Big XII teams, perhaps Kansas and Texas

Texas is a conf killer. Nebraska would never let them in.

 

[mullerpesq]

There will be some basic requirements - one will be academic credibility - the AAU membership could likely be a must-have
... and a foothold in a large (population of people - not livestock or acreage ) market would be attractive. A while ago I heard Ga Tech mentioned ... might fit these parameters .

Yes, this gets toward the heart of the matter. Really the only schools that would be considered need to be public, AAU (or able to be voted in) and have some football history. I would have added a good television market but the reasons for any more expansion don't hinge on that as much. Here are the viable options IMHO:

North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Texas
Pitt

Less likely but interesting:

Oregon
Texas A&M
Arizona
Kansas
UCLA
Missouri

 

[NickyNewark51]

Wh

Lots of eyeballs in New England. If they were AAU, they'd have a reasonable shot.

The Big Ten's wet dream is ND and Texas. I don't see an ACC team given that agreement they have in place (forget what they call it). Realistically they go west and pick off two Big XII teams, perhaps Kansas and Texas

whomever is going i'd bet UConn's on the clock....nothing in New England tops them with more potential and the B1G/Delany is smart..

 

[Nosoj]

Lots of eyeballs in New England. If they were AAU, they'd have a reasonable shot.

The Big Ten's wet dream is ND and Texas. I don't see an ACC team given that agreement they have in place (forget what they call it). Realistically they go west and pick off two Big XII teams, perhaps Kansas and Texas

Grant of rights, I believe is what you're talking about. The Big 12 has one too, though if a school really wants to move, it won't stop them: http://sportspolitico.com/2015/02/16/will-grant-of-rights-protect-big12-from-future-raids/

 

[Nosoj]

Yes, this gets toward the heart of the matter. Really the only schools that would be considered need to be public, AAU (or able to be voted in) and have some football history. I would have added a good television market but the reasons for any more expansion don't hinge on that as much. Here are the viable options IMHO:

North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Texas
Pitt

Less likely but interesting:

Oregon
Texas A&M
Arizona
Kansas
UCLA
Missouri

Pitt, Oregon, Arizona and UCLA are complete non-starters. Not likely, not even unlikely...zero chance they end up in the Big Ten barring a cataclysmic conference realignment event.

AAU requirement is probably not as important as you think either. Nebraska was AAU when they accepted the invite, but they were voted out shortly after. And Michigan and Wisconsin voted against them.

 

[Nosoj]

Wh

whomever is going i'd bet UConn's on the clock....nothing in New England tops them with more potential and the B1G/Delany is smart..

They bring 0 football and Connecticut is right between Oklahoma and Iowa in terms of population. They're low on the list.

 

[rucoe89]

This guy gets it. ND does not want full membership in a conference because it has more than a regional appeal and fanbase. Money isn't the issue. ND fans love to see games in California, Texas, Florida, the northeast, Chicago, etc. That's also good for national recruiting.

One might say that other teams can recruit nationally, but the teams that do so tend to be in more desirable places than South Bend, IN and have more local talent than Indiana/Chicago (e.g., USC, Bama, FSU, etc.). Perhaps the one exception is OSU these days.

Perhaps some day ND will have to fully join a conference for football. If that happens, I personally hope it's the Big Ten for regional rivalry reasons. I'm an old-school traditionalist, though I know tradition and rivalries don't drive college football decisions any more. ND could maintain its rivalries with at least USC and Navy, though it would likely have to drop Stanford. But, as an ND fan, I like rotating new teams into the schedule every few years: Texas, Oklahoma, ASU, etc. That couldn't happen with a full conference schedule plus traditional rivals USC and Navy.

ND got a good deal with the ACC. The ACC has excellent presence in basketball, baseball, and other non-revenue sports. The conference is on the East Coast, where there are a lot of ND alum and fans. Fans would rather see games in Charlottesville, Chapel Hill, Tallahassee, etc. than Minneapolis, West Lafayette and Columbus. The football played in the ACC is solid, though not spectacular (no worse top to bottom than the Big Ten).

I'm not convinced that the football deal with the ACC is a permanent solution, but it's the best one ND could get for the time being.

Post was good until you got the the football being no worse. I think the top of ACC is solid with Clemson, Florida State and UNC for now, but compared to rest of B1G after its top 3 (Michigan St., Iowa, Ohio St.) the rest is second tier to the B1G schools.

 

[qban29]

it's all about TV sets and $$$$ and natural footprint. B1G is expanding east, they already have their targets and contingencies if for schools like Texas and ND (if they ever wanted to join which i doubt).

My guess is UNC & UV, which if they did, it would possibly mean 2 teams from the current East Division would have to move to the West division based on Geographical boundaries. I have a hunch MSU would be a prime candidate so the conference can promote those two as the two 2 teams in the conference and play a conference championship game. no sure who the other candidate based on geography would be.

 

[160louis_rivals149488]

Ideally, Notre Dame to the West and BC to the East

 

[Nosoj]

it's all about TV sets and $$$$ and natural footprint. B1G is expanding east, they already have their targets and contingencies if for schools like Texas and ND (if they ever wanted to join which i doubt).

My guess is UNC & UV, which if they did, it would possibly mean 2 teams from the current East Division would have to move to the West division based on Geographical boundaries. I have a hunch MSU would be a prime candidate so the conference can promote those two as the two 2 teams in the conference and play a conference championship game. no sure who the other candidate based on geography would be.

Indiana is the obvious move. They're the furthest West and they already play the only permanent crossover game with Purdue. After that, MSU is probably the one would go over if this happens, with a permanent crossover against Michigan.

 

[Nosoj]

Ideally, Notre Dame to the West and BC to the East

BC moves me about as much as UConn.

 

[albanyknight]

My realistic choices that I think would strengthen the conference is North Carolina to the east and Missouri to the west.

 

[Hawkssox1]

My realistic choices that I think would strengthen the conference is North Carolina to the east and Missouri to the west.

Missouri has already been passed over so that ship has sailed.I see a possible,N Carolina,G Tech,Virginia or believe it or not Texas.

 

[AntiG]

UNC isn't very realistic barring an epic collapse of the ACC.

Texas on the other hand, has been talking to the B1G forever, and with the B12 in a very precarious position, it could happen eventually. Texas + Oklahoma to complete the B16.

 

[RUinHouston59]

You don't want Texas, it's a cancer. OK and UVA

 

[LC-88]

I'll post my usual for the record. Phase 1 Texas +FSU. Phase 2 UNC + UVa

 

[RedTeam01]

Uconn doesn't bring New England. I don't know why people keep saying that. They are not the Patriots, which is the only football team MA, RI, NH, and ME care about. Most of CT, yes; minus Fairfield County (it's all about the Giants there, and maybe some Jet fans), which is already accounted for, and contains 1/4 of the state's population. The B1G has DC, it has Jersey, and it has NYC. They are done looking in this direction. They'll go NC or VA (which is still "East" for those folks), or maybe south and west. UConn's only hope is as backfill for an even more watery ACC.

 

[Queztastic]

I know that they are all not AAU, but why not just finish off the east coast with UVA, UNC, Clemson & FSU and put the nail in the coffin of the ACC. #paybacksab*tch

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Uconn doesn't bring New England. I don't know why people keep saying that. They are not the Patriots, which is the only football team MA, RI, NH, and ME care about. .

Agree. UConn DOES NOT "bring" New England. Not even close.

 

[irishflu]

Ideally, Notre Dame to the West and BC to the East

This would never happen. ND and its fans will not want to play Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, etc. every year. That is a very uninspiring schedule. They will want to play PSU, OSU, UM, MSU etc. I think if ND and any other team joined the B1G, the divisions would likely reset.

 

[kapyoche]

Iowas State and Pittsburgh.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

It's amazing that after being in the connfrence for two years, 3 years since we were invited, and many years of consideration before out invite that so many people have no idea on what Jim Delany is looking for in expanding

 

[Nosoj]

Iowas State and Pittsburgh.

 

[scarlet89]

Ideally ND and UVA/UNC

My idea if they ever expand to 16 would be to create 4 different 4 team pods that rotate to create 2 divisions of 8 teams each year. So Year 1 has Pods A and B make one division and Pods C and D make the other. Year 2 has Pods A and C make one division and Pods B and D make the other and so on.

Pod A
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers
UVA/UNC

Pod B
Illinois
Michigan
Northwestern
Ohio St.

Pod C
Indiana
Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Purdue

Pod D
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Game every year between Michigan and Michigan St. even if they are in a different division.

Every team gets to play all of their traditional rivals every year and you're never going more than 3 years between playing any team in the conference. Pods are pretty balanced though Pod A is clearly weaker historically speaking.

 

[NickyNewark51]

UNC isn't very realistic barring an epic collapse of the ACC.

Texas on the other hand, has been talking to the B1G forever, and with the B12 in a very precarious position, it could happen eventually. Texas + Oklahoma to complete the B16.

only problem is Delany wants at least 1 more eastern time zone team...1 west 1 east...although i can see 2 wests with either UT/OK or OK/UK.....I'd like VT/UConn if they don't get a blueblood FB team..

 

[NickyNewark51]

I know that they are all not AAU, but why not just finish off the east coast with UVA, UNC, Clemson & FSU and put the nail in the coffin of the ACC. #paybacksab*tch

love it...

 

[NickyNewark51]

Uconn doesn't bring New England. I don't know why people keep saying that. They are not the Patriots, which is the only football team MA, RI, NH, and ME care about. Most of CT, yes; minus Fairfield County (it's all about the Giants there, and maybe some Jet fans), which is already accounted for, and contains 1/4 of the state's population. The B1G has DC, it has Jersey, and it has NYC. They are done looking in this direction. They'll go NC or VA (which is still "East" for those folks), or maybe south and west. UConn's only hope is as backfill for an even more watery ACC.

Then the ACC will have to backfill with UConn...no way the way their spending they're left out of the so called P5...