Agree to disagree. Knowing we don’t have the best athletes / talent to begin with, assets/turnover is a bigger function of coaching. And our 2pt FG % was the worst in the league. That’s consistent with what we all saw - tons of missed layups.
Talent vs. Coaching Impact
- Thread starter SDakaGordie
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There's a lot of overlap -- I was just trying to present the concept in a way that's easier to interpret (my chart formatting aside) and that breaks down how it's actually being arrived at. His "Luck rating" tends to be somewhat of a black box, at least to me. I also wanted to use win probability to quantify how much of the variance occurred when. It surprised me a little to see that, on average, the team did not overperform expectations in the first 35 minutes of the game.
I remember the BC Board days. Sometimes a small fraction of that leaks back onto the board. Here’s the big missing piece with ccc: bc split the board in half and violently. You are the only one that regularly defends him. The remaining defenders come half hearted out defeatist.
ccc is simply a bad coach.
Thanks for posting. I love me some number analysis. I’ve gone as far as posting stupid numbers and regressions that made no sense
Can someone debunk the missed layups thing? Not a stats guy but not how I remember it.
Hi vee4three. Thanks for taking the time to collect all those numbers. Impressive.
And its actually unbiased data!
I went thru your info and counted the games we won where we had less than a 50% chance with 5 minutes left. There were none.
On the flipside, games our opponent won where they had less than a 50% chance with 5 minutes left... There were 4 of those.
It is worth pointing out that our season-ending loss to Iowa was so bad that it caused KenPom's system to dramatically downgrade our team overall, which had the perverse effect of making us a lot less unlucky.
We were only the 331st most unlucky team this year.
I cancelled Hulu about mid-season because the team was agonizing to watch, so I can only comment on a) early season and b) following the games on Yahoo sports. If I took a drink for every time Yahoo sports said "(northwestern player) misses a layup", I'd be dead of alcohol poisoning. It seemed like it was especially bad during our 2nd half collapses. Now, I didn't SEE these missed layups, maybe it was some reverse, 360, fadeaway layup. Probably not, considering the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here.
I believe the term "layup" as mentioned in stats referred to shots in the paint. Maybe I am wrong, but if that is the case, it is very deceiving.
I seem to recall bad and rushed shot after shot be jacked up from outside the paint - Audige, Boo, Nance, Beran. Maybe it is simply my selective memory. There has to be a shot chart available somewhere, yes?
Well, I was able to at least easily get missed shot stats. Since this has been brought forth to argue Young missed a bunch, I thought it interesting that Young had a far better shooting percentage than any other regular on the team. And if someone wants to say that is because he shoots from under the basket while others don't, then perhaps the others should also reconsider their shot selection as only Nance and Greer has impressive 3PT percentages...
Yes, and though it's not stellar, it is a decent percentage compared to other centers in the conference.
In the 3 years he played he shot 53.5, 56.9 and 55.9%. Amazingly people often complained about his FT. In 3 years, 67.0, 73.8 and 67.6%.
FG%/FT%
Walker - 68.3% - 72.6%
Crowl - 49.6% - 80%
Cockburn - 59.3% - 65.5%
Edey - 64.8% - 64.9%
Williams - 54.7% - 59.7%
Rebraca - 53.4% - 60.3%
Key - 56.2% - 58.1%
Omuruyi - 62.4% - 60.2%
Bingham - 53.4% - 74.7%
Dickinson - 56.3% - 80.2%
Jackson-Davis - 58.9% - 67.4%
Wahab - 55.9% - 66.7%
Harrar - 64.0% - 66.7%
Curry - 41.2% - 71.4%
So I get:
Young 2022 - 55.9%/67.6%
B1G average - 57.0%/67.7%
Oh yeah, he missed a lot. Ridiculous. People see a kid that does not look athletic and get a bias in their brain he can't possibly be a good player. Not an average B1G center. Nooooooo!
Young will play in the MAC, as someone suggested, only and if he wants to. He will play in any conference he wants. He's good enough to have teams who want him in ANY conference.
Where does this “he can’t possibly be a good player” narrative come from? I honestly cant think of one poster that has said that.
I (and others) have said that I don’t think he is a good defensive player. That’s is in relation to the competition in the B1G. I feel he would be much better defensively in a less athletic league or in the defensive system that accounts for some of his obvious limitations.
Having said that, I think he is a strong player on offense and he can play in any league as you state. His role would be determined by the strength of that particular team. This is no different than ANY other player in NU’s rotation. RY will be an asset to wherever he goes. NU would have been better if he stayed, but I still think we would not be good in terms of W/L even with RY.
I am positive we’ll talk about RY all next year, so time will tell. It’s MN time now.
Slow down, post was not directed at you, or anyone in particular.
Anyway, you can't convince me there was not a large contingent of posters this year who believed Ryan Young was not a B1G player. Not only is he B1G caliber player, but also a middle of the pack in quality as a center.
He can choose to aim at being player of the year in the Patriot League or an important contributor in a contender. The spectrum is wide. At NU he was in a limbo, not even an average fish, in a mediocre pond.
Did a quick Twitter search and managed to see fans of IU, WI, IA and MSU clamoring for going after him. And dude was not good enough to start and/or play a lot more at NU. A team with no center. Amazing. Woindered how many references I'd see if Beran was in the portal. Who knows.
I guess this still bothers me. A lot. Makes me mad.
PPD...
I recall some "Young is a bad defender comments" maybe not from you, but certainly there were folks making that claim. One from Holland that I recall.
It isn't the same as writing "He's not a good defender."
It was always used to rationalize what Collins must have seen to keep him on the bench.
Young was not a bad defender. He was not a good defender, but he seemed to at least know what he was supposed to do and he played hard. He also got abused by the refs on both ends of the floor. Plenty of "missed layups" when defenders hit his arm. Plenty of guys dropping their shoulder and plowing into him, drawing a "foul."
Never took it as directed to me or anyone in particular. I guess I just don’t see the RY dislike from many posters. In fact, I would say the impression of RY is quite favorable on this board. I am just not seeing a large contingent of posters that ever felt RY was not a B1G caliber player. He clearly worked hard to improve, didn’t cause issues ( that we know of) and overall was a fine representative of NU.
I would have played him more too. The gain with his offensive in my view offsets what I feel is mediocre defense. I think we did see a little offense/defense switch with him late in the year, but I definitely have played him more. It is not like our other options were setting the world on fire. Yes, this is on CCC.
Gato, you should really reconsider this one.
a) I'm not sure there's anyone here who didn't consider him a B10 player.
b) Maybe I'm missing something, but you'd really have to show me that there was a "large contingent" who even implied he wasn't a B10 player. I took a pretty heavy search through your responses, and I'm not sure there's even three people who approached this idea, much less ten - if we want to call that a large group out here.
This is one of the many problems with all the never-ending bullsh*t agendas that are spewed out here. Perceptions get lost in the reality of things.
Maybe. Perceptions get skewed, mine included.
My perception is that, as the season progressed, more and more people abandoned the position that Young just wasn’t that good. Probably driven by Beran abysmal play.
But who knows, maybe my brain is mixing opinions on Young and Nicholson.
Plenty of people, a significant minority, said that Young was below average for the Big Ten at his position and would not start for nearly every other team in the league.
He had a loud core of detractors who believed Collins was correct to have him mostly on the bench.
There was a subset that said he sucked.
They did fade away as the pro-Collins sentiment became anti-Collins.
That's my recollection too.
I remember some thread(s) of how only Nance and, perhaps, Buie were average B1G players.
Not worth digging into anyway.
You are right it’s a tired debate around semantics of what average really is. The point is at no time during the season did I see anytime wishing for RY to transfer at the end of the season. He is not Joel Embid, but he is a valuable player.
And sometimes Boo would just decide to pop an NBA-range 3 with 20 seconds left on the shot clock.
I can only assume that he had the green light to do this. Maybe even encouraged by Collins, backed by some "metrics" study or other.
It's tough to get too mad at Boo, though, because when our offense stalled, sometimes he was the only hope we had for offense at all.
I agree that Collins encourages guys to shoot if they are open and feel confident.
I disagree that he uses metrics. For anything.