WLP Preview - Minnesota

[westlotpirates]

The one team with no chance of winning the West? Well, that's obvious.

The team with the SECOND smallest chance of winning the West? We submit to you the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Congrats of getting the Axe back, Gophs, but we're in the "That tells you more about Wisconsin than Minnesota" camp. This team is headed the wrong way on defense, and it's unclear exactly what Minnesota brings to the table on offense beyond an O-Line that looks like it would eat said table.

(We pretty much had to hose Scuzz down after this one.)

Thanks as always!
Sam, John, and Scuzz/The West Lot Pirates

 

[Cidsports]

Who is the true sleeper for 2019 in the West?
Wouldn't it be the Golden Gophers and P.J. Fleck?

 

[westlotpirates]

What are we calling a sleeper? A team that probably won't win the West, that we would put multiple teams above, but could still maybe actually, truly win if things really come together?

Wisconsin.

 

[freewillie07]

I have a question for the pod:

When talking about opposing defenses, I notice that oftentimes the remarks go something like: “X player on the DL had a lot of sacks and TFLs, and X and Y also had a lot of tackles, but beyond that, there’s not much.” A part of me wonders if that sort of reasoning applies for just about every team? Take away their best or second best defensive player, and what are you left with? I genuinely do not know the answer.

Also, I believe you noted that Minnesota only had 11 INTs, but Northwestern, which we all think of as opportunistic when it comes to turnovers, had 12. Michigan and Ohio State also had 11 for the year. I’m not particularly worried about Minnesota but it doesn’t seem like they were noticeably bad in that department.

Not trying to be critical! I look forward to each new preview. It was just something that caught my attention and made me curious to know more.

 

[jensberg]

On offense the Big Ten Network commentators stated that Minnesota might have the best receiver group in the entire Big Ten and the top three for running backs. Coupling that with their offensive line one would think they would have a good offense if their quarterback is reasonably capable.

 

[westlotpirates]

freewillie07: Thanks for listening!

You're right, it's tricky. There was a long stretch where Wisconsin was building monster defenses where guys were topping out at 60TK. And then you have schools like Illinois where at least one guy is turning in a monster statistical season every year but the overall unit is a mess. Plus you have 3-4 scheme teams (again, like the Badgers) where it's hard to quantify the performance of the down linemen other than by how the unit as a whole is doing.

As for interceptions, that 11 number puts a program outside of top 50 nationally, so it's often a negative indicator. Of course, the spread statistically from top to bottom is also relatively small, so we try to look at where the picks are coming from. The difference between 11 picks and 15 picks might be one more JR Pace balling out for a team and making a real difference. Or it might just be luck.

It's funny to juxtapose Michigan and Ohio State, though, because one of them had a great defense last year, and one of them didn't. Sadly, despite the opportunistic label you mentioned, the reality is Northwestern would fall into the latter category as well; the Cats had a bad pass defense last year statistically. This by no means sets the NU apart: Teams like Iowa and Penn State that actually fielded strong pass rushes AND strong secondary play all year were a rarity in the Big Ten. This is a run defense conference.

All of this is why we try to evaluate defenses in a given year based on what we've seen from those teams over the previous few years. Then we try to cross reference that with the stats. Sometimes it works (Nebraska last year), and sometimes it doesn't (Iowa last year)! We hope that over an extended period of time, we get the overall trend right.

 

[westlotpirates]

On offense the Big Ten Network commentators stated that Minnesota might have the best receiver group in the entire Big Ten and the top three for running backs. Coupling that with their offensive line one would think they would have a good offense if their quarterback is reasonably capable.

That WR rank is all about Tyler Johnson. He's quite good. Rashod Bateman had a lot of folks excited LY, but had just 2 big games (vs IU and IL) and is not a very explosive player. Both struggled w drops at times. They get their 3rd guy back as well,. who "had a great spring" (like everyone else in CFB), but there's very little in the way of recruiting rank or other pedigree here to make you think they're great at WR. There's nothing to indicate they can be explosive beyond Johnson, and teams took him away down the stretch last year. Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin (assuming Cephus plays), Penn State, and probably MIchigan have more talented WR corps. Purdue will be a nightmare on wheels for secondaries to cover. I'd put NU above MN too for depth and diversity of athlete. They are not close to the best corp in the division, let alone the conference.

You can't argue with the talent they have at RB, they're great, nor with their ability to run block - prob best run blocking line in the conf. But their oline is not good at pass blocking (terrible sack rates last year).

The problem they had last year, and will continue to have this year... when a good defense bottles up their running game, they struggle (see NU, Iowa... somehow Nebraska did it too). This year, teams will double Johnson and focus on the run. If Tanner Morgan to Rashod Bateman becomes the next Tua-Jeudy connection and opens up their offense, so be it, but it just doesn't pass the sniff test right now.

 

[Laurentdalmeida]

Really? Minnesota doesn't have best wrWR in league? Are you blind? Bateman was wanted by Georgia, & Alabama, & every major sec school. Tyler Johnson is expected to be a 1st round pick. Yeah , you have to be a Northwestern Wildcats homer to think gophers WR's & RB's aren't best in BigTen! The reason gophers are being talked about as sleepers is because their new DCoordinator changed things & led to them beating Wisconsin, Purdue and Georgia tech & basically shutting down these teams

 

[westlotpirates]

Wow! I guess Phil Steele and Athlon sports (and every other preseason pub ive read) are Northwestern homers, cause not one of them has MN as the top WR group in the division or the conference! Must be a Northwestern media conspiracy.....

 

[Laurentdalmeida]

That WR rank is all about Tyler Johnson. He's quite good. Rashod Bateman had a lot of folks excited LY, but had just 2 big games (vs IU and IL) and is not a very explosive player. Both struggled w drops at times. They get their 3rd guy back as well,. who "had a great spring" (like everyone else in CFB), but there's very little in the way of recruiting rank or other pedigree here to make you think they're great at WR. There's nothing to indicate they can be explosive beyond Johnson, and teams took him away down the stretch last year. Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin (assuming Cephus plays), Penn State, and probably MIchigan have more talented WR corps. Purdue will be a nightmare on wheels for secondaries to cover. I'd put NU above MN too for depth and diversity of athlete. They are not close to the best corp in the division, let alone the conference.

You can't argue with the talent they have at RB, they're great, nor with their ability to run block - prob best run blocking line in the conf. But their oline is not good at pass blocking (terrible sack rates last year).

The problem they had last year, and will continue to have this year... when a good defense bottles up their running game, they struggle (see NU, Iowa... somehow Nebraska did it too). This year, teams will double Johnson and focus on the run. If Tanner Morgan to Rashod Bateman becomes the next Tua-Jeudy connection and opens up their offense, so be it, but it just doesn't pass the sniff test right now.

Y

Wow! I guess Phil Steele and Athlon sports (and every other preseason pub ive read) are Northwestern homers, cause not one of them has MN as the top WR group in the division or the conference! Must be a Northwestern media conspiracy.....

Really? Might want to rebook at just about every single prediction. Gophers WR's having thr best WR'S in the nation. You must be ready blind to not acknowledge defenses will have to pick their battles. Cover Tyler Johnson & gophers will go to Bateman or Chris autman bell. It's funny you think gophers are a joke when you don't analyze everything that happened after change in DCoordinator. Purdue scored 7 points. Badgers scored 13. Georgia tech scored 10. All these games blowout.

 

[Laurentdalmeida]

Wow! I guess Phil Steele and Athlon sports (and every other preseason pub ive read) are Northwestern homers, cause not one of them has MN as the top WR group in the division or the conference! Must be a Northwestern media conspiracy.....

Or one more thing invite Ryan burns or Wisconsin badgers beat writers or Iowa beat writers if you want fair analysis. Also you not acknowledging gophers RB's core & strong oline following insert of Daniel faleele or Curtis Dunlap is a joke

 

[westlotpirates]

You can listen to our pod if you want, we talk about all of that. The running backs are great and the run-blocking is probably best in the conference. There a TON of legit questions about Tanner Morgan and the vacuum behind him, and the line's ability to effectively pass block. Remains to be seen if MN can be effective when good defenses contain the run (as both Northwestern and Iowa did successfully last year and will do again this year).

Sure the wideouts are good, but Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan are rated higher in the publications I cited. I like to check my sources before I make claims like that. Also, defenses DID pick their battles last year and the Gophers won 3 of 9 conference games. Those 2ndary receivers showed up big exactly twice (Bateman vs IU and IL). Can they get better? Sure. Are teams with good defenses scared? No.

Also, Purdue game was a blizzard and Wisconsin was a catastrophe by year end. Northwestern scored 24 on you at home with the 94th rated offense in CFB and quite effectively contained your amazing running backs and receivers. Congratulations on slowing down the vaunted Georgia Tech offense in a bowl game.

 

[Laurentdalmeida]

You can listen to our pod if you want, we talk about all of that. The running backs are great and the run-blocking is probably best in the conference. There a TON of legit questions about Tanner Morgan and the vacuum behind him, and the line's ability to effectively pass block. Remains to be seen if MN can be effective when good defenses contain the run (as both Northwestern and Iowa did successfully last year and will do again this year).

Sure the wideouts are good, but Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan are rated higher in the publications I cited. I like to check my sources before I make claims like that. Also, defenses DID pick their battles last year and the Gophers won 3 of 9 conference games. Those 2ndary receivers showed up big exactly twice (Bateman vs IU and IL). Can they get better? Sure. Are teams with good defenses scared? No.

Also, Purdue game was a blizzard and Wisconsin was a catastrophe by year end. Northwestern scored 24 on you at home with the 94th rated offense in CFB and quite effectively contained your amazing running backs and receivers. Congratulations on slowing down the vaunted Georgia Tech offense in a bowl game.

Really? So you are blaming weather for Purdue losing to gophers? Or drama / injury for badgers losing to gophers? It's pathetic thing to blame being that teams in college & NFL play in this type of weather. Plain. & simple Purdue didn't come to play. Badgers did & were out coach defense & offensive. By the way gophers were in game vs. Northwestern and lost in late 3rd or early 3rd because of tanner Morgan struggles.

Your excuses can be used for gophers also if we are going that way. Flat out it's pathetic you want to de illegimize the gophers wins.

 

[corbi2961]

Really? So you are blaming weather for Purdue losing to gophers? Or drama / injury for badgers losing to gophers? It's pathetic thing to blame being that teams in college & NFL play in this type of weather. Plain. & simple Purdue didn't come to play. Badgers did & were out coach defense & offensive. By the way gophers were in game vs. Northwestern and lost in late 3rd or early 3rd because of tanner Morgan struggles.

Your excuses can be used for gophers also if we are going that way. Flat out it's pathetic you want to de illegimize the gophers wins.

The only one that is making a bunch of excuses is you. You guys sucked last year. Until you actually put up some Ws in the standings, you really have nothing to brag about without sounding clueless. I suggest you tuck tail back to your board.

 

[Laurentdalmeida]

The only one that is making a bunch of excuses is you. You guys sucked last year. Until you actually put up some Ws in the standings, you really have nothing to brag about without sounding clueless. I suggest you tuck tail back to your board.

Nope gophers didn't suck. People are so fandom to their team, they don't want to acknowledge reality. They beat Fresno, top 20 team in nation, beat Wisconsin and Purdue. Yop, & Fired the DCoordinator after the embarrassment to Illinois and took off.

 

[corbi2961]

Nope gophers didn't suck. People are so fandom to their team, they don't want to acknowledge reality. They beat Fresno, top 20 team in nation, beat Wisconsin and Purdue. Yop, & Fired the DCoordinator after the embarrassment to Illinois and took off.

Like I said, clueless. First put up a winning record in the Big Ten and then maybe you have some basis to talk. Until then, hit the road.

 

[scru]

Like I said, clueless. First put up a winning record in the Big Ten and then maybe you have some basis to talk. Until then, hit the road.

I'd agree with your first. I'd go with second, learn any amount of grammar. Third, throw in some basic spelling (your computer / phone even does this for you). Finally, save up $2,500, wait about 3 - 5 years, and even you will be able to speak to Fleck and shake his hand while he's trying to sell you a used car on some lot outside of Minneapolis. PJ's Autos: No Money Down, Trade-ins Welcome!