I'm not in VA but all of our local catholic schools had major bumps in enrollment last 2 years. So much so they have a waiting list...first time ever.
Ive been told it hit really hard in 1st - 3rd grades. Kids were in virtual school but private schools stayed open - easy decision. One elementary school lost an equivalent to nearly a whole classroom.
We almost made the jump, but we have 4 kids and while the elementary/middle school tuition is manageable, the local private high school is at a university level tuition rate and its hard for me to swallow.
If things arent improved by the time my 3rd enters kindergarten, she and younger sibling will do private school. We decided the two older children were too embedded into their schools (friends, sports, familiarity), to remove them.
It was a bigger decision for us than $$. There were many tensions in the community that were getting expressed in the schools. As many voted with their feet and entered private schools, those remaining in public schools began to see other issues increase in severity with a larger portion of students coming from difficult home situations.
In the lower schools, there were quite a few students that had not gone to pre school and they held class speeds back. There were also students with poor home lifes and single parent families. Some of these posed behavior issues in the classroom. Imagine my frustration when I saw the teacher had place my child between two of them because she did not participate in their antics. Also, the school admin mainstreamed some of the weaker student to challenge them. What it didn’t’t do was challenge my child. It slowed and bored her.
In the upper private school, there were some issues as well. In a small town, they were limited in some of the advanced math and science classes they could offer. And finally, our private school was slow to offer classes from colleges. AP courses were available, but the required score of 5 for college credit was often hard to hit and the student only gets one shot at the test. So we moved her her senior year to a larger private school 25 miles east of us.