We are the Champions

[Darth_VadEER]

If you are going to use total death vs. total recovered as your mortality rate......then do this math for me.

USA

Total Deaths: 256

Total Recovered: 147

Whats the mortality rate in the USA?

See why that isn't a very reliable way to do it?

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

You arent using the numbers correctly.

Even if you accounted that all current serious/critical cases ended in death (unlikely) you would end up 19,350 total deaths and about 275,000 total cases.....you're still still at only about 7.5%.

We dont need to make it scarier than it is for it to be scary.

Even if we managed it to a 1.5% mortality rate, thats still 15 times more deadly than influenza.

No point in adjusting the numbers to show what you want.

The problem with your calculations is that you are leaving static the total number of cases. If you scroll down and look at the rate increase of new cases and new deaths it is not static. When I first started looking at this last week total cases was almost half what it is today. The ramp up of new cases, which is the epidemiological fear, is very rapid and if the death rate was even at your 7.5% you may be talking hundreds of thousands instead. I'm with you, it's scary numbers at even 4-5%, but some folks don't get the magnatude of the situation unless you hit them in the face with it.

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

Statistics dont lie but liars use statistics.

Per your link....

Reported cases: 274,219

Deaths: 11,355

Active cases: 171,991

Mild cases: 164,017 (95% of current cases)

USA stats

Reported cases: 18,876

Total deaths: 237

And lets remember they actual infection count is most higher than whats been reported, which pushed the mortality rate down even further.

Not sure what you're getting at here. You can't calculate a death rate against an unresolved outcome. You can only use the resolved number of cases against the actual deaths to determine the fatality percentage.

Open unresolved cases are just that, unresolved. Hopefully many of those people fully recover. But the numbers right now indicate that 11% of the unresolved cases won't make it.

Again, the numbers are not static.

 

[Darth_VadEER]

The problem with your calculations is that you are leaving static the total number of cases. If you scroll down and look at the rate increase of new cases and new deaths it is not static. When I first started looking at this last week total cases was almost half what it is today. The ramp up of new cases, which is the epidemiological fear, is very rapid and if the death rate was even at your 7.5% you may be talking hundreds of thousands instead. I'm with you, it's scary numbers at even 4-5%, but some folks don't get the magnatude of the situation unless you hit them in the face with it.

Im making it static because im calculating where we are at a precise moment.

Like I said, if we are only focusing on mortality rate we need to wait about 1 year to have the actual data.

The most important calculation is probably rate of hospitalization. Which I cant do.

 

[Darth_VadEER]

Not sure what you're getting at here. You can't calculate a death rate against an unresolved outcome. You can only use the resolved number of cases against the actual deaths to determine the fatality percentage.

Open unresolved cases are just that, unresolved. Hopefully many of those people fully recover. But the numbers right now indicate that 11% of the unresolved cases won't make it.

Again, the numbers are not static.

No - Right now the numbers indicate that 95% of unresolved cases are considered mild. 5% percent are serious/critical. That doesnt indicate a 11% mortality rate.

If you are going to use that formula calculate the mortality rate of coronavirus in the USA, right now and tell me what it is.

Currently we have more deaths than we have recovered.

 

[The Bell Tolls for Thee]

You're right, it's not 10%. It's 11% today. Get your numbers right.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's without knowing the true denominator. Currently due to lack of testing kits, the kits are primarily being used on hospitalized and symptomatic patients. Thus there is a selection bias. The asymptomatic and minorly symptomatic are not being tested much at all. With how far and how quickly it has spread, I'm thinking if the mortality rate across the board were really 10%, there would be far more dead. Only time will tell, but I'd bet money that for the general populace, the death rate will be lower than 10% and likely 5 fold less.

 

[TownesVanZandt_rivals]

Been hearing this from some but they believe this is the prophecy of the book of Revelations.

Pretty much meaning the Pope is the Antichrist because the home of the Antichrist would be hit the hardest by the plagues
Or maybe the hardest hit hasn't been determined

 

[Darth_VadEER]

Been hearing this from some but they believe this is the prophecy of the book of Revelations.

Pretty much meaning the Pope is the Antichrist because the home of the Antichrist would be hit the hardest by the plagues
Or maybe the hardest hit hasn't been determined

Or maybe it's a virus...

 

[TownesVanZandt_rivals]

Milan Fashion Week is the reason for Italy.

Everyone of these large events should have been cancelled.



Mardi Gras was another
Paris Fashion Week followed Milan..

I can look deeper into large events around the world.

This was why Austin cancelled South by Southwest a week before everything started getting shut down.
That saw how it was socially irresponsible to hold that event with that many people from all over the world