Who will be the first Dim to drop out
- Thread starter EERs 3:16
- Start date
Look to any candidate currently begging for 1 dollar donors to get to the 130k threshold. The dropouts will probably be from that group.
Swallows well.. I also think Butt itch..it's his "gay pride"... that's the only thing he's got going for him..His pride is going " to get bruised"..ball tagged... LMFAO..:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Swallows well.. I also think Butt itch..it's his "gay pride"... that's the only thing he's got going for him..His pride is going " to get bruised"..ball tagged... LMFAO..:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
I actually think Buttathing is well spoken. Just imagine him trading nukes for gay rights with Iran or not being allowed to go to a Muslim country because they will not meet with a gay man. We would be at war within 6 weeks of him being elected, or the Middle East would own us on day 1
Never said we are 100%. Please review, this article states otherwise, but I not going to verify (too lazy)
As Of October 2018, The US Is Now Energy Independent
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/12/2018 - 14:41
6
SHARES
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This number is broken down into 11.35mn b/d of crude oil and 4.57 mn b/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs). As a reference, the US will likely consume about 20.7mn b/d of oil and other liquid fuels in 2018. The surge in US and also Canadian output has pushed total North American crude production volumes above 20 mn b/d.
The larger-than-expected surge in North American oil volumes has come primarily from the Permian, Canada's oil sands, and more recently, the Gulf of Mexico.
In contrast to the fast growth experienced by its Northern neighbors, Mexican oil output continues to fall as the effects of the latest energy sector reform have yet to be translated into output.
Notably, this surge in North American oil production is only set to accelerate, and according to Bank of America forecasts US crude oil volumes alone will exceed 12MM b/d in 2019. It is this sky high production in the US, coupled with incremental barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia, that together with the Iran wildcard is starting to impact oil market balances. As such, crude oil inventories are starting to increase once again and has led to the recent bear market in oil prices.
Of course, as anyone with a passing interest in the energy sector knows, the faster than expected growth in the US, coupled with more barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia following a challenging meeting last July, is starting to impact oil market balances. For starters, crude oil inventories in the US are starting to increase once again on the back of surging North American output and refinery turnarounds. Meanwhile, there is a risk that total OECD oil inventories may follow suit on the back of the surge in OPEC+ volumes.
This reversal in US and global inventory trends has seen a sharp impact on the market, with near-term indicators of real-time market balances such as front-to-third month spreads in Brent and WTI have fallning back into contango as BofA shows in the chart below (Chart 9). Meanwhile, longer measures such as front-to-thirteen month contracts are following suit (Chart 10), a shift that could set OPEC+ into motion to potentially reduce output volumes heading into their upcoming December meeting, unless of course Trump tweets out a few more warning threatening to intervene if OPEC dares to cut production. That said, OPEC has worked long and hard to rebalance the market in the past two years, and it will hardly be threatened by some jawboning by the US president.
But the biggest surprise from the recent data, and the biggest threat for OPEC is something different, the same thing that according to Bank of America could make the next OPEC price war a lot more costly to the cartel just as the US has continued to isolate itself from global oil price swings.
The reason: as of October, the US is now energy independent for the first time, which is a seismic change considering that just 10 years ago, America was spending 3% of GDP buying foreign energy in 2008, but its energy trade balance is now positive.
And, as BofA calculates, "whether measured in in BTU/oil barrels equivalent or in US dollars, we estimate that the reversal in energy balances from a deficit into a surplus happened in October 2018."
That said, an perhaps something for the administration to consider, is that on the flip side, the marked improvement in US energy trade balances has been met with a major deterioration in the non-energy trade balance, as a strong US economy and has led to increased demand for foreign goods.
Still, with great energy independence comes great international interdependence.
Consider that in just 10 years, America flipped from being a huge energy importer to becoming the largest exporter of petroleum products in the world (Chart 13). On average, US petroleum product exports averaged 5.1 mn b/d in the past quarter mostly on a combination of gasoline, diesel and residual fuel. In addition, the US is on track to become the largest NGL exporter too (Chart 14). Currently, America runs the world's largest NGL exports, followed by Saudi and Qatar, thanks to surging ethane, propane and butane export volumes.
The good news, is that as of this moment, the US oil independence has led to soaring US energy trade. According to Bank of America, America has been exporting increasingly larger volumes of crude oil to many countries, with levels recently topping out at around 2.4 mn b/d in the past few weeks (Chart 15). In fact, US crude barrels have recently reached places as far as South Africa, Indonesia and Oman, highlighting the increasing appetite for US light sweet barrels.
It's not just crude: LNG exports are also finally picking up steam as trains come on line (Chart 16). Total export levels now average 2.95 bcf/d or 0.45 mn b/d of oil equivalent and are poised to keep growing over the next 18 months.
The flipside: whereas the booming US energy sector is now contributing billions to the US trade surplus - even as the overall US trade deficit soars - any additional alienation of OPEC could result in another 2014-type fallout, in which the OPEC cartel effectively dissolves itself and it becomes every oil exporter for themselves as they once again scramble to recapture market share lost to US shale. As a result of such an outcome, oil prices could crater as low as $20 once again, crippling shale producers, but also resulting in another emerging markets/petrodollar crisis.
What could catalyze this outcome? More tweets such as this one:
Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 12, 2018
Meanwhile, going back to OPEC and its next steps, the surge in US production means that with oil prices falling by 20% from the highs in recent weeks, the next OPEC+ decision will also have to factor in: (1) the massive 2+MM b/d YoY surge in US output and (2) the negative demand impact of the ongoing trade tensions.
lmfao, ya'lls circus is ALWAYS front page the world over, the fourth should be a great way to build your base, I hear there will be tanks!!, any of his lil fanboy defenders on here make enough money to get one of them Trump VIP tickets so you can go see him make the news on the mall? He probably thinks it is about him, again! lmfao.r
WINNER!!!!Swallows well.. I also think Butt itch..it's his "gay pride"... that's the only thing he's got going for him..His pride is going " to get bruised"..ball tagged... LMFAO..:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Swallwell out
Never said we are 100%. Please review, this article states otherwise, but I not going to verify (too lazy)
As Of October 2018, The US Is Now Energy Independent
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/12/2018 - 14:41
6
SHARES
TwitterFacebookRedditEmailPrint
This number is broken down into 11.35mn b/d of crude oil and 4.57 mn b/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs). As a reference, the US will likely consume about 20.7mn b/d of oil and other liquid fuels in 2018. The surge in US and also Canadian output has pushed total North American crude production volumes above 20 mn b/d.
The larger-than-expected surge in North American oil volumes has come primarily from the Permian, Canada's oil sands, and more recently, the Gulf of Mexico.
In contrast to the fast growth experienced by its Northern neighbors, Mexican oil output continues to fall as the effects of the latest energy sector reform have yet to be translated into output.
Notably, this surge in North American oil production is only set to accelerate, and according to Bank of America forecasts US crude oil volumes alone will exceed 12MM b/d in 2019. It is this sky high production in the US, coupled with incremental barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia, that together with the Iran wildcard is starting to impact oil market balances. As such, crude oil inventories are starting to increase once again and has led to the recent bear market in oil prices.
Of course, as anyone with a passing interest in the energy sector knows, the faster than expected growth in the US, coupled with more barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia following a challenging meeting last July, is starting to impact oil market balances. For starters, crude oil inventories in the US are starting to increase once again on the back of surging North American output and refinery turnarounds. Meanwhile, there is a risk that total OECD oil inventories may follow suit on the back of the surge in OPEC+ volumes.
This reversal in US and global inventory trends has seen a sharp impact on the market, with near-term indicators of real-time market balances such as front-to-third month spreads in Brent and WTI have fallning back into contango as BofA shows in the chart below (Chart 9). Meanwhile, longer measures such as front-to-thirteen month contracts are following suit (Chart 10), a shift that could set OPEC+ into motion to potentially reduce output volumes heading into their upcoming December meeting, unless of course Trump tweets out a few more warning threatening to intervene if OPEC dares to cut production. That said, OPEC has worked long and hard to rebalance the market in the past two years, and it will hardly be threatened by some jawboning by the US president.
But the biggest surprise from the recent data, and the biggest threat for OPEC is something different, the same thing that according to Bank of America could make the next OPEC price war a lot more costly to the cartel just as the US has continued to isolate itself from global oil price swings.
The reason: as of October, the US is now energy independent for the first time, which is a seismic change considering that just 10 years ago, America was spending 3% of GDP buying foreign energy in 2008, but its energy trade balance is now positive.
And, as BofA calculates, "whether measured in in BTU/oil barrels equivalent or in US dollars, we estimate that the reversal in energy balances from a deficit into a surplus happened in October 2018."
That said, an perhaps something for the administration to consider, is that on the flip side, the marked improvement in US energy trade balances has been met with a major deterioration in the non-energy trade balance, as a strong US economy and has led to increased demand for foreign goods.
Still, with great energy independence comes great international interdependence.
Consider that in just 10 years, America flipped from being a huge energy importer to becoming the largest exporter of petroleum products in the world (Chart 13). On average, US petroleum product exports averaged 5.1 mn b/d in the past quarter mostly on a combination of gasoline, diesel and residual fuel. In addition, the US is on track to become the largest NGL exporter too (Chart 14). Currently, America runs the world's largest NGL exports, followed by Saudi and Qatar, thanks to surging ethane, propane and butane export volumes.
The good news, is that as of this moment, the US oil independence has led to soaring US energy trade. According to Bank of America, America has been exporting increasingly larger volumes of crude oil to many countries, with levels recently topping out at around 2.4 mn b/d in the past few weeks (Chart 15). In fact, US crude barrels have recently reached places as far as South Africa, Indonesia and Oman, highlighting the increasing appetite for US light sweet barrels.
It's not just crude: LNG exports are also finally picking up steam as trains come on line (Chart 16). Total export levels now average 2.95 bcf/d or 0.45 mn b/d of oil equivalent and are poised to keep growing over the next 18 months.
The flipside: whereas the booming US energy sector is now contributing billions to the US trade surplus - even as the overall US trade deficit soars - any additional alienation of OPEC could result in another 2014-type fallout, in which the OPEC cartel effectively dissolves itself and it becomes every oil exporter for themselves as they once again scramble to recapture market share lost to US shale. As a result of such an outcome, oil prices could crater as low as $20 once again, crippling shale producers, but also resulting in another emerging markets/petrodollar crisis.
What could catalyze this outcome? More tweets such as this one:
Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 12, 2018
Meanwhile, going back to OPEC and its next steps, the surge in US production means that with oil prices falling by 20% from the highs in recent weeks, the next OPEC+ decision will also have to factor in: (1) the massive 2+MM b/d YoY surge in US output and (2) the negative demand impact of the ongoing trade tensions.
We still import and we are still subject to global price fluctuations. We are not independent.
I think we are squabbling over the actual meaning of energy independence. Energy independence does not mean we don't buy energy from others, it's just that we can produce enough to sustain if needed, although others have defined it differently.
My wife was a gas trader back in the day. I know a little about how this works. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the premier crude in the world. Our oil is highly sought after as it has less sulfur and better for the environment. It is also easier to refine.
Oil is fungible and international, but that being said, OPEC has been able manipulate oil prices in the past and with our newfound energy production, it is much harder for them to bully the rest of the world and in that we are more independent.
Our problem is we have been pumping at capacity while other nations have scaled back during low theblow cycle in oil. We won't be able to pump that much forever, some are essentially blowing our load at the cheapest point.
Our reserves match anyone's in the world. That being said, we have a global economy and we are the most diversified in the world. That cannot be said for our competitors. They can wait, but not forever. I receive oil/gas royalties so I almost want the price to go back up. [devil]
I called Swollwswell..out a couple of weeks ago...he crashed and burned last night...This Epstein "thingy" might clear the field pretty quickly... The Clintons are going to combust internally.. Her emails have...NOTHING,COMPARED TO THE CABAL FOUNDATION...2/3rds of our government is complicit in ...HIGH CRIMES AND MISDEMEANORS..AKA TREASON!!! (Q) has EVERY MEDIA FILE FROM EINSTEIN'S ISLAND..The NSA tapped their devices years ago (via CCTV) THEY'VE GOT ABSOLUTELY..NO..WAY..OUT..:cop::boom::lock::grimace:
I agree most of the fallout from Epstein's arrest will effect Democrats. He was a big time Democrat donor, hosted Democrats, was close friends with Clinton and while he knew Trump...didn't "hang out" with him. Dems are scrambling to de link themselves from this guy and pin him on Trump.
Won't work. Will blow up in their faces just like the "collusion" scam.
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