GDP the "real deal"

[atlkvb]

While Leftists insist the robust economy we're enjoying that the media hardly ever reports on is really because of Obama comes this news from the CBO:

"The Congressional Budget Office’s budget and economic outlook released this month projects that real Gross Domestic Product will grow by 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, That would mark a 15-year high".

The Left can say this is Obama's economy all they want, but in fact he never produced GDP numbers this high in ANY of his previous 8 years! (He of course waited until leaving Office to produce these numbers) Any wonder why the media DOES NOT report these Trump numbers on the bottom line performance of our economy? Could it be it just may be Trump MAGA?[thumb2]

Many thanks to @WVU82 for doing the work of the main stream news media and posting these fabulous numbers they refuse to report.

(btw...if this is still Obama's economy as the Left insists, how come his friends in the media aren't giving him any credit for it?)

Link:
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/cbo-projects-gdp-headed-15-year-high

 

[Boomboom521]

So now the CBO is good at projection? Can we just wait until it hits that mark to give him credit for it?

 

[atlkvb]

So now the CBO is good at projection? Can we just wait until it hits that mark to give him credit for it?

Well, when they projected tax revenues would decline because of the Trump tax cuts everyone of the Democrats and their Leftist backers used those CBO projections to oppose them.

What happened?

CBO has recently counted record revenues since the tax cuts and amazingly no one on the Left came back and admitted/apologized for the CBO being wrong. So CBO has no credibility now on this projection of 3.3% GDP? They're still not be believed? What happens if GDP exceeds 4%?

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/revenues-climb-5-2-in-first-month-of-gop-tax-cuts/

 

[Boomboom521]

Well, when they projected tax revenues would decline because of the Trump tax cuts everyone of the Democrats and their Leftist backers used those CBO projections to oppose them.

What happened?

CBO has recently counted record revenues since the tax cuts and amazingly no one on the Left came back and admitted apologized for the CBO being wrong. So CBO has no credibility now on this projection of 3.3% GDP? They're still not be believed? What happens if GDP exceeds 4%?

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/revenues-climb-5-2-in-first-month-of-gop-tax-cuts/

I’ve always considered CBO projections to be extreme

 

[Mntneer]

I’ve always considered CBO projections to be extreme

Long term, definitely.

 

[atlkvb]

I’ve always considered CBO projections to be extreme

I don't like em either truthfully because they use static analysis in their scoring of budget and tax policy. It's almost as if they assume no changes in behavior as rules or laws change? But I get it's tough to predict exactly what folks will do, so not sure what the answer is?

Guess just stop "projecting" and report on actual real numbers?

 

[WVUCOOPER]

I’ve always considered CBO projections to be extreme

Only when they don't agree with what you believe. You are to treat them as God himself when they support your beliefs. Duh.

 

[atlkvb]

Only when they don't agree with what you believe. You are to treat them as God himself when they support your beliefs. Duh.

They are usually wrong no matter who's side gets dinged from their off base analysis.

 

[Airport]

They are usually wrong no matter who's side gets dinged from their off base analysis.

Imagine the government being wrong!

 

[atlkvb]

Imagine the government being wrong!

Yup, imagine that? Or HONEST?:scream:

 

[Airport]

Yup, imagine that? Or HONEST?:scream:

Once, I'd like to see the CBO use it's own numbers instead of what congress gives it to work off of.

 

[WVUCOOPER]

They are usually wrong no matter who's side gets dinged from their off base analysis.

They are highly advanced ESTIMATES. It's the people and the pols that spin the estimates depending on their own beliefs.

 

[atlkvb]

They are highly advanced ESTIMATES. It's the people and the pols that spin the estimates depending on their own beliefs.

True. I just wish we could evaluate actual results on policy instead of going off on their lousy "projections". Sometimes whole pieces of legislation are held up based on their faulty analysis.

 

[Airport]

They are highly advanced ESTIMATES. It's the people and the pols that spin the estimates depending on their own beliefs.

They have to use the numbers that Congress gives them for their projections.

 

[atlkvb]

They have to use the numbers that Congress gives them for their projections.

They're like the Media=Lazy, stupid, biased, and WRONG....always wrong!

 

[Boomboom521]

Yup, imagine that? Or HONEST?:scream:

There’s really something bad about us always bashing public servants now. A person can’t serve on the Hill or take a high level position within the DOJ without being branded a liar and a cheat with no integrity now?

Don’t get me wrong, I see the muck of DC, but I have a little more faith that some, even within the system, still serve the nation first.

 

[atlkvb]

There’s really something bad about us always bashing public servants now. A person can’t serve on the Hill or take a high level position within the DOJ without being branded a liar and a cheat with no integrity now?

Don’t get me wrong, I see the muck of DC, but I have a little more faith that some, even within the system, still serve the nation first.

They reap what they sew. I do agree with you though the lack of respect for dedicated public service is disappointing.

 

[mneilmont]

I don't like em either truthfully because they use static analysis in their scoring of budget and tax policy. It's almost as if they assume no changes in behavior as rules or laws change? But I get it's tough to predict exactly what folks will do, so not sure what the answer is?

Guess just stop "projecting" and report on actual real numbers?

Can add a little credibility to CBO projections. Go back and look at CBO projections and compare to Obama actuals.. If nothing else, we can see it todays figures are in line with Obama history. Really don't believe Obama historical figures measure up.

Trump economic plans have all been blocked by political opposition - not his plan to grow the economy. Being a really conservative person, I thought Trump would have received a trillion dollars for infrastructure repairs and growth. Economy had been in dumpster long enough to get some jump-start funds. Tax reduction was the right place to go for growth, but I still wanted some government funds to aid the aging infrastructure.

Consideration for National Debt? Yes, but i think growth in economy and getting people back to work and reduce welfare assistance is the only way that we can generate funds to pay down ND. Raising taxes during slack periods is not the way to paying down our obligations.

 

[Mntneer]

Can add a little credibility to CBO projections. Go back and look at CBO projections and compare to Obama actuals.. If nothing else, we can see it todays figures are in line with Obama history. Really don't believe Obama historical figures measure up.

Trump economic plans have all been blocked by political opposition - not his plan to grow the economy. Being a really conservative person, I thought Trump would have received a trillion dollars for infrastructure repairs and growth. Economy had been in dumpster long enough to get some jump-start funds. Tax reduction was the right place to go for growth, but I still wanted some government funds to aid the aging infrastructure.

Consideration for National Debt? Yes, but i think growth in economy and getting people back to work and reduce welfare assistance is the only way that we can generate funds to pay down ND. Raising taxes during slack periods is not the way to paying down our obligations.

At one time, the CBO had Bush 2 running a surplus long term prior to the housing crash and recession.

Short term projections they do pretty well with, long term projections.... not so much.

 

[atlkvb]

At one time, the CBO had Bush 2 running a surplus long term prior to the housing crash and recession.

Short term projections they do pretty well with, long term projections.... not so much.

I'd just prefer to see real numbers from them instead of constant "revisions" to their endless "projections". Which is why I'd prefer them counting actual results from various tax and budget policies instead of analysis by "predictions".

Look at the revenues since the tax cuts. They could not have been more wrong.

 

[D. Denzil Finney]

There’s really something bad about us always bashing public servants now. A person can’t serve on the Hill or take a high level position within the DOJ without being branded a liar and a cheat with no integrity now?
And in more than a few cases, the branding is well deserved. Shameless Public Servants.

Don’t get me wrong, I see the muck of DC, but I have a little more faith that some, even within the system, still serve the nation first.

Can agree that some serve the Nation first, but they don't have the numbers to ensure the Nation First agenda is accomplished.

 

[atlkvb]

Can agree that some serve the Nation first, but they don't have the numbers to ensure the Nation First agenda is accomplished.

In my opinion they are only concerned about two things: getting elected and staying elected.

After that no matter which party you are discussing, it is simply about a fight over a big pile of money that gets collected in DC and who among them gets to spend it.

 

[mneilmont]

At one time, the CBO had Bush 2 running a surplus long term prior to the housing crash and recession.

Short term projections they do pretty well with, long term projections.... not so much.

Hopefully, they never will be correct long term. Sure do not want to predict when we are going to have a disagreement with some little country. That plays havoc with long range forecasting. The economy is a bit more predictable. Have historically had a bit of a downturn every 10 years - not necessarily every 10th year.

Otherwise we could elect all Doves into the WH and make no allowance for wars. Let the little Dictators kick the **** out of our military and apologize for getting in the way. We went thru an embarrassing period before Ford kicked the collective asses of the countries involved in Mayaguez. Cuba was one that joined the fray and lost a couple soldiers.

Send Clint Eastwood in as a DI and he will remove the opposition . Have already seen it.

 

[wvu2007]

Trickle down. Kansas.

 

[atlkvb]

Trickle down. Kansas.

Obama was so smart 007. See, he knew how well his economic policies would eventually work, but he wanted to make sure no one else got credit for them. So he rigged up his scheme to kick in for the second qtr of the second year of the succeeding Presidency so no one would dare question who really was responsible for the spectacular numbers he knew were coming. Oh that part about "some of these jobs are gone forever, and aren't coming back"?
He lied.

See how that worked?

By the way, he NEVER had more than 3%GDP for any year he was in office, so he knew folks would question the legitimacy of his successor. That's why he installed polices and waited for them to have that "delayed" affect, to make sure he got all the credit![winking]

 

[atlkvb]

So now the CBO is good at projection? Can we just wait until it hits that mark to give him credit for it?

What are you waiting for now? Fraud.

 

[Original Mountaineer1]

Well, when they projected tax revenues would decline because of the Trump tax cuts everyone of the Democrats and their Leftist backers used those CBO projections to oppose them.

What happened?

CBO has recently counted record revenues since the tax cuts and amazingly no one on the Left came back and admitted/apologized for the CBO being wrong. So CBO has no credibility now on this projection of 3.3% GDP? They're still not be believed? What happens if GDP exceeds 4%?

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/revenues-climb-5-2-in-first-month-of-gop-tax-cuts/

Obama was so smart 007. See, he knew how well his economic policies would eventually work, but he wanted to make sure no one else got credit for them. So he rigged up his scheme to kick in for the second qtr of the second year of the succeeding Presidency so no one would dare question who really was responsible for the spectacular numbers he knew were coming. Oh that part about "some of these jobs are gone forever, and aren't coming back"?
He lied.

See how that worked?

By the way, he NEVER had more than 3%GDP for any year he was in office, so he knew folks would question the legitimacy of his successor. That's why he installed polices and waited for them to have that "delayed" affect, to make sure he got all the credit![winking]

Obama was so smart 007. See, he knew how well his economic policies would eventually work, but he wanted to make sure no one else got credit for them. So he rigged up his scheme to kick in for the second qtr of the second year of the succeeding Presidency so no one would dare question who really was responsible for the spectacular numbers he knew were coming. Oh that part about "some of these jobs are gone forever, and aren't coming back"?
He lied.

See how that worked?

By the way, he NEVER had more than 3%GDP for any year he was in office, so he knew folks would question the legitimacy of his successor. That's why he installed polices and waited for them to have that "delayed" affect, to make sure he got all the credit![winking]

I think everyone knows Obama never had 3% annual GDP growth. Everyone should be happy with the growth, unemployment, and every other positive metric. But this news has to be taken in context. Trump still hasn't exceeded Obama's best quarter btw. Without looking it up,Obama had at least two at 4.5 or higher. Just 7 months ago Trump enacted a massive tax cut that inherently drives growth. This happens when taxes are cut.....it does. You can look it up. Google can be your friend. So the "historic" 4.1% GDP growth Trump touted really isn't that impressive or historic except in his administration. (I'm happy though).

Did you know Clinton and W ran annual growth rates over 4% for nearly 4 straight years with low unemployment too? Did you realize the republican driven recession obama inherited was the worst in 80'years? Did you realize that after the recession ended the republicans basically blocked everything obama wanted to do. I'm not giving obama a break I'm just stating the facts. Trump has a republican congress. What happens if he didn't? Pretty much nothing would have happened and we'd still be seeing 2.5-3% growth most likely.

The US population and economy continue to grow and both have been for 9 years. Therefore tax revenues, all things being equal, will always increase. A growing economy increases tax collections. In addition our population is increasing up 45 million in 25 years. That too generally increases tax collections. So saying we are seeing historic tax revenues is accurate but meaningless information without context. Think about the impact on tax revenues when the economy slows and it will. It will truly be devastating ATL. That's reason #1 why you don't cut taxes during growth.

In its most recent report on April 6, CBO said total tax receipts were up 2 percent in the first half of fiscal year 2018, from October to March, compared with the same six-month period in fiscal year 2017. However, that same report said corporate tax revenues for the first six months of the year were down $22 billion – a 22.3 percent decline from the first six months of fiscal year 2017. That to me is interesting. Maybe the CBO was wrong on their initial revenue estimates. What I didn't read was the impact of capital repatriation. In Fiscal Q2, corporations repatriated capital (great call IMO). I'm curious to see the impact on tax revenues when that starts to wain. Nobody is talking about the growing deficit though. Nobody has questioned the CBO's predictions on the increase in the deficit as best I can tell. Right? I know you love the growing deficit too. The combination of increased spending and tax cuts is a tool reserved for recession. In my mind, this will be trump's biggest folly. When growth slows ATl, what is trump going to do fiscally then? Cut spending? Increase taxes? Check out the Great Depression for historical context.

This growth, and it isn't even great growth, is fool's gold in my opinion for the reasons I outlined.

 

[atlkvb]

I think everyone knows Obama never had 3% annual GDP growth. Everyone should be happy with the growth, unemployment, and every other positive metric. But this news has to be taken in context. Trump still hasn't exceeded Obama's best quarter btw. Without looking it up,Obama had at least two at 4.5 or higher. Just 7 months ago Trump enacted a massive tax cut that inherently drives growth. This happens when taxes are cut.....it does. You can look it up. Google can be your friend. So the "historic" 4.1% GDP growth Trump touted really isn't that impressive or historic except in his administration. (I'm happy though).

Did you know Clinton and W ran annual growth rates over 4% for nearly 4 straight years with low unemployment too? Did you realize the republican driven recession obama inherited was the worst in 80'years? Did you realize that after the recession ended the republicans basically blocked everything obama wanted to do. I'm not giving obama a break I'm just stating the facts. Trump has a republican congress. What happens if he didn't? Pretty much nothing would have happened and we'd still be seeing 2.5-3% growth most likely.

The US population and economy continue to grow and both have been for 9 years. Therefore tax revenues, all things being equal, will always increase. A growing economy increases tax collections. In addition our population is increasing up 45 million in 25 years. That too generally increases tax collections. So saying we are seeing historic tax revenues is accurate but meaningless information without context. Think about the impact on tax revenues when the economy slows and it will. It will truly be devastating ATL. That's reason #1 why you don't cut taxes during growth.

In its most recent report on April 6, CBO said total tax receipts were up 2 percent in the first half of fiscal year 2018, from October to March, compared with the same six-month period in fiscal year 2017. However, that same report said corporate tax revenues for the first six months of the year were down $22 billion – a 22.3 percent decline from the first six months of fiscal year 2017. That to me is interesting. Maybe the CBO was wrong on their initial revenue estimates. What I didn't read was the impact of capital repatriation. In Fiscal Q2, corporations repatriated capital (great call IMO). I'm curious to see the impact on tax revenues when that starts to wain. Nobody is talking about the growing deficit though. Nobody has questioned the CBO's predictions on the increase in the deficit as best I can tell. Right? I know you love the growing deficit too. The combination of increased spending and tax cuts is a tool reserved for recession. In my mind, this will be trump's biggest folly. When growth slows ATl, what is trump going to do fiscally then? Cut spending? Increase taxes? Check out the Great Depression for historical context.

This growth, and it isn't even great growth, is fool's gold in my opinion for the reasons I outlined.

Yeah but Trump's a Nazi like Hitler, so who cares?

 

[atlkvb]

The combination of increased spending and tax cuts is a tool reserved for recession

We will truly reach the "promised land" when we cut both taxes and spending. That's the "Goldilocks formula" for increasing and sustaining this free market economy. So how many died-in-the-wool Socialists such as yourself OM1 will be supporting Trump's agenda to permanently lower taxes, and restructure Federal outlays that either eliminate whole programs and agencies or severely reduces their total take of the revenues generated by the growing economy you mentioned?

A better question might be how many more of these can you stand to hear answering that question?

 

[Original Mountaineer1]

We will truly reach the "promised land" when we cut both taxes and spending. That's the "Goldilocks formula" for increasing and sustaining this free market economy. So how many died-in-the-wool Socialists such as yourself OM1 will be supporting Trump's agenda to permanently lower taxes, and restructure Federal outlays that either eliminate whole programs and agencies or severely reduces their total take of the revenues generated by the growing economy you mentioned?

A better question might be how many more of these can you stand to hear answering that question?

I answer your post thoughtfully and you come back by calling me a socialist. As I've said many times my racist friend, I am very much a fiscal conservative.

 

[Original Mountaineer1]

Yeah but Trump's a Nazi like Hitler, so who cares?

When you can't counter my rebuttal, we get this.

 

[atlkvb]

I answer your post thoughtfully and you come back by calling me a socialist. As I've said many times my racist friend, I am very much a fiscal conservative.

Your soliloquy was filled with Socialist drivel. You only argue for increased spending (you don't cut taxes when an economy is expanding?) So you sure don't cut them when it's contracting right OM1? So when do you cut them?

You've never argued for less government, only more revenues to feed it. You dismiss the power of the tax cuts (which by definition is limiting Government) and simply wait for the shoe to drop on free enterprise. You call record numbers of Americans working, and record revenues coming into the treasury "fools gold" but Government facing 21 trillion dollars in crushing debt simply demands from you that we spend more or increase taxes! We can never get by with less Government from you, only taxpayers are expected to get by with less of what they earn sending it into Government.

And as I've said many times my Socialist friend, you are a total fraud. You run away from debates, you don't answer questions, & you constantly accuse me of the very things YOU do.

I'm done with you...good bye!

 

[atlkvb]

When you can't counter my rebuttal, we get this.

You fraud...I asked you yesterday to explain to me how Trump's a Nazi and you ran way like this

 

[atlkvb]

I answer your post thoughtfully and you come back by calling me a socialist. As I've said many times my racist friend, I am very much a fiscal conservative.

 

[WVU82_rivals]

TWO ways to see this economy is jumping...

1. The huge increase in the number of semis on the interstates.

2. What you see in rail yards. Under Bush it was military vehicles, under the owebamatraitor it was cars.

Under Trump it is BOTH and the trains are twice as long.

 

[WVU82_rivals]

 

[Original Mountaineer1]

You fraud...I asked you yesterday to explain to me how Trump's a Nazi and you ran way like this

I actually have a real job. Busy week

 

[va87eer]

The GDP numbers were all over every news station yesterday including CNN and MSNBC. I tuned in just to see how it was reported and it was basically fair, saying that it was very good news (Best quarter in 4 years) and that overall figures are being revised upward. They also encouraged perspective that the sustained growth is more important than the quarterly figure.

If we can get sustained growth in the 3-3.5% range that will go along way to driving wages up and getting back to a more normal economy for the first time since the banking collapse. I will be much more impressed with the growth numbers when we have 3+ sustained growth and we're doing it without the stimulus of 1 trillion dollars of deficit spending. When we had the couple high growth quarters in 2014 the annual deficit was "only" (I just vomited in my mouth a littel) half what it will be this year.

If govt spending is ratcheted back extensively starting next year and for the next several years and we're able to keep this growth level then we will have truly achieved something. High growth and a reducing deficit has only happened once in my adult life and I'm pretty darn old.

 

[wvu2007]

I actually have a real job. Busy week

Being 8 months pregnant is not easy.

 

[atlkvb]

The GDP numbers were all over every news station yesterday including CNN and MSNBC. I tuned in just to see how it was reported and it was basically fair, saying that it was very good news (Best quarter in 4 years) and that overall figures are being revised upward. They also encouraged perspective that the sustained growth is more important than the quarterly figure.

If we can get sustained growth in the 3-3.5% range that will go along way to driving wages up and getting back to a more normal economy for the first time since the banking collapse. I will be much more impressed with the growth numbers when we have 3+ sustained growth and we're doing it without the stimulus of 1 trillion dollars of deficit spending. When we had the couple high growth quarters in 2014 the annual deficit was "only" (I just vomited in my mouth a littel) half what it will be this year.

If govt spending is ratcheted back extensively starting next year and for the next several years and we're able to keep this growth level then we will have truly achieved something. High growth and a reducing deficit has only happened once in my adult life and I'm pretty darn old.

I don't watch em so maybe that's true. So is the rest of what you posted. We need to make these tax cuts permanent and start eliminating waste and unneeded programs. Next entitlement reforms and defunding whole agencies. Hopefully we get around to closing some down no longer needed like Commerce, Education, Interior, and HUD.