One of my criticisms of Trump is that he really came into office without a plan. He had ideas that were popular but honestly not much behind any of them. We saw that with Obamacare and the fact that never really had any idea how to make it better even after 18 months of claiming he did. Nevertheless the problems with Obamacare, illegal immigration, the EPA, trade, weren't his issues. All wrongs were the fault of Obama and everything going well was his doing.
So now we are 18 months in and he has hit his first real issue caused by his action: American farmers are being hurt by his trade war. American consumers soon will be. This is not Obama's trade war but his. No matter how he spins it, and he will, this pain will be all his. This points to a thought I have stated from early in his presidency; he doesn't understand how the economy works. He doesn't understand that his actions in one area impact another. Our economy was humming with a large trade deficit mainly with China. Why start a trade war now? Unemployment is amazingly low. Americans are spending. Wages are finally increasing and he starts a trade war for some unknown reason.
I have pointed to other similar issues. He doesn't understand that lowering taxes during economic growth has long term, negative implications, namely inflation. He has recently been criticizing the Fed and their push to increase interest rates. He doesn't understand that they do a heck of a job managing inflation, which is a fear from most economists now right now. The inflation that would, in part, be fueled by his tax cut. He doesn't that trade deficits by themselves with certain countries could be a good thing (Canada for example and cheap oil). In fact it is clear that he doesn't understand the benefits of global trade except that the US should win the contest.
Everything in Trump's world is containerized or resides in a vacuum. He never sees the bigger picture. He can't connect dots. He lacks a global view (pro or con). He can't understand why American's could possibly be concerned with his relationship with Putin while criticizing Canada, England, and Germany. It is stunning really. Honestly there is zero evidence that he can see a bigger picture with any of his actions to date except maybe his view on illegal immigration. But then he lowers the numbers of legal immigrants coming to the US which is spectacularly the wrong thing to do in a growing economy where we need labor and technical expertise.
And that is why this trade war with everyone makes no sense. He now proposes 12 billion to bail out American soy bean farmers. What about negative impacts to farmer's that raise other products? Bail them out too? What about the tech industry? Coal? Medical equipment? There are other groups that will soon have their hands out because they are being negatively impacted. What is Trump going to do? Interestingly there are some economist that say the US can win a trade war and the very long term benefit could be good for the US. But at what cost? Those same economist will also tell you that there will be lots of pain to win that war both the US and global economy resulting from a significant global recession.
Anyway, I am ranting. But my God, I hope at some point the American people (republicans and democrats) will realize that we need a long-term plan to grow the economy, reduce our debt, and maintain control of inflation vs these wildly incongruent one-offs by Trump.
So now we are 18 months in and he has hit his first real issue caused by his action: American farmers are being hurt by his trade war. American consumers soon will be. This is not Obama's trade war but his. No matter how he spins it, and he will, this pain will be all his. This points to a thought I have stated from early in his presidency; he doesn't understand how the economy works. He doesn't understand that his actions in one area impact another. Our economy was humming with a large trade deficit mainly with China. Why start a trade war now? Unemployment is amazingly low. Americans are spending. Wages are finally increasing and he starts a trade war for some unknown reason.
I have pointed to other similar issues. He doesn't understand that lowering taxes during economic growth has long term, negative implications, namely inflation. He has recently been criticizing the Fed and their push to increase interest rates. He doesn't understand that they do a heck of a job managing inflation, which is a fear from most economists now right now. The inflation that would, in part, be fueled by his tax cut. He doesn't that trade deficits by themselves with certain countries could be a good thing (Canada for example and cheap oil). In fact it is clear that he doesn't understand the benefits of global trade except that the US should win the contest.
Everything in Trump's world is containerized or resides in a vacuum. He never sees the bigger picture. He can't connect dots. He lacks a global view (pro or con). He can't understand why American's could possibly be concerned with his relationship with Putin while criticizing Canada, England, and Germany. It is stunning really. Honestly there is zero evidence that he can see a bigger picture with any of his actions to date except maybe his view on illegal immigration. But then he lowers the numbers of legal immigrants coming to the US which is spectacularly the wrong thing to do in a growing economy where we need labor and technical expertise.
And that is why this trade war with everyone makes no sense. He now proposes 12 billion to bail out American soy bean farmers. What about negative impacts to farmer's that raise other products? Bail them out too? What about the tech industry? Coal? Medical equipment? There are other groups that will soon have their hands out because they are being negatively impacted. What is Trump going to do? Interestingly there are some economist that say the US can win a trade war and the very long term benefit could be good for the US. But at what cost? Those same economist will also tell you that there will be lots of pain to win that war both the US and global economy resulting from a significant global recession.
Anyway, I am ranting. But my God, I hope at some point the American people (republicans and democrats) will realize that we need a long-term plan to grow the economy, reduce our debt, and maintain control of inflation vs these wildly incongruent one-offs by Trump.
