Trump

[WVUCOOPER]

I think people are going to be a lot more surprised at Trump's performance than traditional wisdom would think.

We shall see.

 

[mneilmont]

This "kooky" endorsement should put Hillary over the top.

Not sure this is an adequate representation. Current composition is more darker skinned ladies of foreign to African extraction. Therefore this affiliation may be a bit misleading.

 

[mneilmont]

True story. This morning I did a google search for all state results and used a color coded map and the map was wrong. I just looked for it again and couldn't find it. But that's where that comes from fwiw.

No apology needed as long as you maintain consistency.

 

[Keyser76]

I think people are going to be a lot more surprised at Trump's performance than traditional wisdom would think.

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

 

[mneilmont]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

You should not feel averse to narrowness of thought.

 

[DvlDog4WVU]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

Doesn't matter to me either way. I'm Not voting for either of those two fvcking idiots. I'm voting for Nuclear Holocaust.

 

[mule_eer]

The Evangelicals can say what they want, at the end of the day, there is a deep seated hatred for Hillary on the right which will compel people to vote for anyone but her, Trump included. If Trump can take the rust belt which seems plausible, she won't win.

Who would have thought though when the GOP had 17 candidates in the mix that they would have their **** together sooner than what was essentially a 1 person race on the DNC side? I heard a stat last night that some 25% of registered Dems changed their registration in PA to GOP. I don't know the validity to that, but it doesn't seem good for Hillary.

If one can manage to set aside Trump's nativists rhetoric there remains some truths:

1. Trump has actually created jobs in this country, many of them. Hillary hasn't
2. Hillary has been surrounded by scandal dating back to the 80's and it seems like every year a new one comes out.
3. Hillary will say anything to anyone if she thinks its what they want to hear. Independents and Conservative Dems don't respect that, maybe even less than GOP voters.
4. Hillary was an abject failure in her time as SoS. People died because of her failure in leadership (perception is reality)
5. We will rehash every scandal of Hillary's between now and election day in Nov. ad-nauseum.
6. A large percentage of professional women are disenfranchised with Hillary
7. This election cycle sucks for the informed voter.
8. Hillary will try to show some of the shadier things Trump has done in business yet this can easily be spun as him knowing how to work a system to get the job done and again "create jobs". There is nothing she can point to that can match him as she is a career politician. She has never created anything.
9. Email gate still looms on the horizon.
10. She is one the least likable and most polarizing figures on the planet so much so that it offsets Trump's polarizing stances.

1. How many jobs had Lincoln created? Kennedy? Reagan? Being a good business person and being a good leader are not always the same thing.

2. Hillary has been surrounded by scandal for decades, and she's still the presumptive nominee for the Dems.

3. Hillary is a politician. I don't think that's anything new.

4. People vote based on record now?

5. We will also rehash every divorce and every business failure, including 4 bankruptcies, of Trump too.

6. A large percentage of women have a negative view of Trump, and Hillary has done well among minority voters. She has demographics on her side.

7. Totally agree, this was my nightmare match up.

8. I think you under estimate the power of pointing to smaller businesses that failed due to Trump's bankruptcies, his habits of hiring the people he says he wants to keep out of the country, etc. It'll sell among enough folks.

9. Email gate is problematic, but I don't think it's enough to derail her.

10. I agree that she is polarizing, but Trump's negative numbers - the percentage of people who say they will never vote for him - dwarfs her negative numbers. We have the 2 most polarizing candidates out of both fields as the nominees, presumably.

 

[bornaneer]

Remember when this idiot had an unbeatable 17 point polling lead,according to the "experts", much closer to the election.

 

[mneilmont]

1. How many jobs had Lincoln created? Kennedy? Reagan? Being a good business person and being a good leader are not always the same thing.

2. Hillary has been surrounded by scandal for decades, and she's still the presumptive nominee for the Dems.

1. But if Hillary has been a failure at everything she has done, that has to translate.
2. Trump has never been the "presumptive nominee" until today. And he is there in the end.

Do you not feel the times are different, and we should have no reasonable future expectations based on past events. These two candidates are absolutely from no prior molds. Statements are being made about these two that have no basis. Trump is attracting greater numbers and Hillary fewer. Relative terms that can not make absolute assumptions about. Assumption of black support for Hillary, but do they come out in numbers? Women for Hillary, but are they only interested in gender?

 

[mule_eer]

1. But if Hillary has been a failure at everything she has done, that has to translate.
2. Trump has never been the "presumptive nominee" until today. And he is there in the end.

Do you not feel the times are different, and we should have no reasonable future expectations based on past events. These two candidates are absolutely from no prior molds. Statements are being made about these two that have no basis. Trump is attracting greater numbers and Hillary fewer. Relative terms that can not make absolute assumptions about. Assumption of black support for Hillary, but do they come out in numbers? Women for Hillary, but are they only interested in gender?

I wouldn't say that Hillary has been a failure at everything she has done. She was a successful attorney, her run for Senate was successful. You may not think she did much in government, but she has not been a failure at everything she's done.

Trump has been the leader, and the only question was whether he could win the nomination if it came down to a contested convention.

Trump is attracting voters. I think DevilDog was the one who pointed out that a ton of D's in PA switched to R. he gave that as a positive sign. I heard a lot of analysis of that situation, and some of those folks switched to vote for Trump. I won't discount that. Some of those folks switched just to vote against Trump.

You say that Trump is gaining and Hillary is falling. The poll numbers of people as to where they stand on Trump, the majority vote that they would definitely not vote for Trump, and it isn't close. That number also isn't dropping, it's increasing. The number from the end of March/early April had Trump at:
Definitely would vote for: 16%
Would consider voting for: 19%
Definitely would not vote for: 63%
Refused to answer/undecided: 2%

That negative response is up from 54% in mid-February.


Here's the problem from the GOP perspective. The party has something that they call the "Blue Wall", and that's the states that they are almost assured that they won't win. Those states give the dems over 200 delegates. Basically, the dems have to win either Florida or Ohio. Trump's in an uphill battle, against his negative polling results and demographics. I'm not trying to say that Hillary doesn't have her own issues with favorability - she does. Her numbers are hovering in the mid-50% range there. Will some voters stay home because they don't like either major candidate? Probably. I think most people will vote for what they see as the lesser of 2 evils though - history is my guide there. I think demographics give Hillary a fairly easy win in that scenario. I've been wrong before, but I feel fairly confident in this prediction.

 

[MOUNTIE IN MD]

If you go for club level, you should sit with us on the BYU side. Demographics would suggest much shorter lines for booze.

Key piece of this entire thread: which side is the BYU side? I'm all for shorter lines...especially for booze.

 

[Fingon]

I wouldn't say that Hillary has been a failure at everything she has done. She was a successful attorney, her run for Senate was successful. You may not think she did much in government, but she has not been a failure at everything she's done.

Trump has been the leader, and the only question was whether he could win the nomination if it came down to a contested convention.

Trump is attracting voters. I think DevilDog was the one who pointed out that a ton of D's in PA switched to R. he gave that as a positive sign. I heard a lot of analysis of that situation, and some of those folks switched to vote for Trump. I won't discount that. Some of those folks switched just to vote against Trump.

You say that Trump is gaining and Hillary is falling. The poll numbers of people as to where they stand on Trump, the majority vote that they would definitely not vote for Trump, and it isn't close. That number also isn't dropping, it's increasing. The number from the end of March/early April had Trump at:
Definitely would vote for: 16%
Would consider voting for: 19%
Definitely would not vote for: 63%
Refused to answer/undecided: 2%

That negative response is up from 54% in mid-February.


Here's the problem from the GOP perspective. The party has something that they call the "Blue Wall", and that's the states that they are almost assured that they won't win. Those states give the dems over 200 delegates. Basically, the dems have to win either Florida or Ohio. Trump's in an uphill battle, against his negative polling results and demographics. I'm not trying to say that Hillary doesn't have her own issues with favorability - she does. Her numbers are hovering in the mid-50% range there. Will some voters stay home because they don't like either major candidate? Probably. I think most people will vote for what they see as the lesser of 2 evils though - history is my guide there. I think demographics give Hillary a fairly easy win in that scenario. I've been wrong before, but I feel fairly confident in this prediction.

There is no blue wall (and I linked this article earlier in this very thread): http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/

 

[mneilmont]

I wouldn't say that Hillary has been a failure at everything she has done. She was a successful attorney, her run for Senate was successful. You may not think she did much in government, but she has not been a failure at everything she's done.

Trump has been the leader, and the only question was whether he could win the nomination if it came down to a contested convention.

Trump is attracting voters. I think DevilDog was the one who pointed out that a ton of D's in PA switched to R. he gave that as a positive sign. I heard a lot of analysis of that situation, and some of those folks switched to vote for Trump. I won't discount that. Some of those folks switched just to vote against Trump.

You say that Trump is gaining and Hillary is falling. The poll numbers of people as to where they stand on Trump, the majority vote that they would definitely not vote for Trump, and it isn't close. That number also isn't dropping, it's increasing. The number from the end of March/early April had Trump at:
Definitely would vote for: 16%
Would consider voting for: 19%
Definitely would not vote for: 63%
Refused to answer/undecided: 2%

That negative response is up from 54% in mid-February.


Here's the problem from the GOP perspective. The party has something that they call the "Blue Wall", and that's the states that they are almost assured that they won't win. Those states give the dems over 200 delegates. Basically, the dems have to win either Florida or Ohio. Trump's in an uphill battle, against his negative polling results and demographics. I'm not trying to say that Hillary doesn't have her own issues with favorability - she does. Her numbers are hovering in the mid-50% range there. Will some voters stay home because they don't like either major candidate? Probably. I think most people will vote for what they see as the lesser of 2 evils though - history is my guide there. I think demographics give Hillary a fairly easy win in that scenario. I've been wrong before, but I feel fairly confident in this prediction.

Hillary's success as lawyer came after Bill was seated. My readings would suggest, or flatly state, she made no move at all until they gained access to Gov Office. I guess she did have some success at buying futures. That was amazing how lucky she go to build $100G. And I guess she did actually win the Senate seat without the name and position of her husband and the machine ofSchumer.

 

[wvu2007]

Hillary won Ohio and Pennsylvania, if she can get Bernie supporters to vote for her, she could show strong in the remainder of those states. Next.

The whole rust-belt trope is popular among Trump hopefuls, but it ignores demographic realities. For all the talk about Trump bringing 'new voters' to the party, GOP turnout has not been as astronomically high as media narratives would have people believe. And oddly, even though GOP turnout has been much higher than democratic turnout in the primaries overall, Clinton has gotten more votes than Trump. And a Trump nomination will motivate democrats to turn out like few other things could. Yes, Hillary is galvanizing for the GOP as well, and I think in a normal year, most any Republican would be favored to beat her. But Trump's negatives are astronomically worse than Hillary's among almost every demographic group that is evaluated. We are already seeing not only prominent moderate voices, but prominent conservative voices come out and say that they'd prefer 4 years of taking shots at Hillary and challenging her in 2020 over supporting Trump now.

Trump and Cruz are the only 2 in this whole process I wouldn't vote for over Clinton. Trump is going to get hammered. More interested in how the down ticket elections go.

I disagree. Numbers will win this election. Demographics are changing and hurting the GOP. Now with Trump, they are sprinting away from those numbers. Good luck hanging on to the Senate and House.

Trump doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. They polled Indiana GOP voters as they exited yesterday (and I do realize that is only one state, but it is applicable to an extent to other states) and asked them if they would vote for Trump if he was the nominee in the general and 24% said they would NOT vote for him.

You can bet your *** Hillary won't let anyone forget the crazy **** the Donald has said over the last 8 months and in addition to that she'll remind everyone of all this wonderful "employment" he has created (quoting one poster in this thread, lol). He has employed immigrants as part-time seasonal workers and he has sent a lot of the clothing work to China. Hillary will also remind everyone of the GOP trying to overthrow Trump's candidacy. He won't win the women vote, he won't win the Hispanic vote, he won't win the African-American vote, he won't win the Muslim vote.

Clinton has but to win the 19 states and DC which the Democratic candidate has won in every election since 1988 plus Florida where she leads Trump by double digits. President Clinton.

That's a fundamentally flawed analysis. The popular vote and electoral college tally correlate very strongly and predicatbly (mainly, because the popular vote is nothing more than a collection of the statewide totals). While it's possible to dream up hypothetical scenarios where some candidate's swing-state results vary tremendously from the overall tally, it doesn't play out that way in reality. The nuances of the electoral college will only become significant in a close election. It's unrealistic to assume that Trump could somehow lose nationally by 5, 6, 8 points, etc., yet the results in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will somehow swing wildly the other way. There simply aren't enough angry white men in those states to make that kind of a massive swing happen, even though the effect is strong in the primaries.

The only reason to care about the electoral college permutations if is things are within a couple points one way or another, which at this point, is not expected.

Nate Silver lays it out much better than I could. This article was written pre-Trump, but the fundamental aspects of the analysis remain unchanged. The popular vote will dictate the electoral vote outcome as it always has: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/

.

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

Treasure trove of:

 

[wvu2007]

Trump and Cruz are the only 2 in this whole process I wouldn't vote for over Clinton. Trump is going to get hammered. More interested in how the down ticket elections go.

Hammered I tell ya.

 

[wvu2007]

I disagree. Numbers will win this election. Demographics are changing and hurting the GOP. Now with Trump, they are sprinting away from those numbers. Good luck hanging on to the Senate and House.

This might be my favorite. Good luck hanging on to the Senate and House. HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAA

 

[PriddyBoy]

I was listening to an Indiana evangelical on NPR this morning regarding yesterday's primary and he said that he couldn't vote for Trump or Hillary. If Trump can't get the religious right vote then that's not good for him. It should be funny watching Trump lay out some more two Corinthians verbiage going forward but I doubt that he'd fool anyone. What is Trump's stance on abortion? If he can convince anyone that he's anti abortion then he has a chance. The Republicans don't need too many of their own sitting this one out.

Therapy Squirrel to the rescue!

 

[wvu2007]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

Trump doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. They polled Indiana GOP voters as they exited yesterday (and I do realize that is only one state, but it is applicable to an extent to other states) and asked them if they would vote for Trump if he was the nominee in the general and 24% said they would NOT vote for him.

You can bet your *** Hillary won't let anyone forget the crazy **** the Donald has said over the last 8 months and in addition to that she'll remind everyone of all this wonderful "employment" he has created (quoting one poster in this thread, lol). He has employed immigrants as part-time seasonal workers and he has sent a lot of the clothing work to China. Hillary will also remind everyone of the GOP trying to overthrow Trump's candidacy. He won't win the women vote, he won't win the Hispanic vote, he won't win the African-American vote, he won't win the Muslim vote.

Clinton has but to win the 19 states and DC which the Democratic candidate has won in every election since 1988 plus Florida where she leads Trump by double digits. President Clinton.

 

[MichiganHerd]

Found this old thread, and has lots of great stuff.

EERs 3:16 with a hell of a take, MOE with a typical racist take, and CR89 doing what he does best...being wrong.

I'd be worried about Hillary inability to win the rust belt's vote

Bingo.

but he's got the angry (and scared) white guy thing going so it should be interesting.

Dumb

Trump doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.

Hillary will also remind everyone of the GOP trying to overthrow Trump's candidacy.

LMAO.

 

[moe]

Found this old thread, and has lots of great stuff.

EERs 3:16 with a hell of a take, MOE with a typical racist take, and CR89 doing what he does best...being wrong.

Bingo.

Dumb

LMAO.

You're an idiot.

 

[MichiganHerd]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

Imagine how stupid you look now.

 

[mneilmont]

Imagine how stupid you look now.

Michigan, you can forget trying to show them their error. They still believe she didn't lose. Just cannot help some people. They still embarrass themselves, and try to justify their stupidity. Great to be a winner.

 

[WVU82_rivals]

 

[wvu2007]

What happened to Melissa Harris Perry. She seems to fall off the face of the planet

 

[TarHeelEer]

I'd be worried about Hillary inability to win the rust belt's vote

Wow!

 

[wvu2007]

Trump doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. They polled Indiana GOP voters as they exited yesterday (and I do realize that is only one state, but it is applicable to an extent to other states) and asked them if they would vote for Trump if he was the nominee in the general and 24% said they would NOT vote for him.

You can bet your *** Hillary won't let anyone forget the crazy **** the Donald has said over the last 8 months and in addition to that she'll remind everyone of all this wonderful "employment" he has created (quoting one poster in this thread, lol). He has employed immigrants as part-time seasonal workers and he has sent a lot of the clothing work to China. Hillary will also remind everyone of the GOP trying to overthrow Trump's candidacy. He won't win the women vote, he won't win the Hispanic vote, he won't win the African-American vote, he won't win the Muslim vote.

 

[atlkvb]

If Trump can't get the religious right vote then that's not good for him

If Biden loses the Black vote to Trump, he'll go down to defeat in a landslide. Black support for Trump exceeds 20% now and is growing. No Democrat can win losing 20% of their most loyal voting block. Guess what moe? Many of those Black voters are Evangelical Christians.

 

[atlkvb]

Damn you 007! I was about to have a nice quiet night, and you posted this fool again! Now I'm laughing too hard to get to sleep!

Damn you!

 

[Brushy Bill]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

Bwahahahahahahaha

 

[wvu2007]

Damn you 007! I was about to have a nice quiet night, and you posted this fool again! Now I'm laughing too hard to get to sleep!

Damn you!

 

[atlkvb]

Un freakin' real. You're going to kill me with this sh*t I swear!

 

[atlkvb]

OMG... @wvu2007 ...and @Dog Rescueer ...I really needed that belly aching laugh. Now I'll sleep well tonight. Nothing is funnier than retread Leftists in their own words of past posted ignorance.

Too funny guys...thanks for the laughs!

 

[Walter Brennaneer]

Hillary won Ohio and Pennsylvania, if she can get Bernie supporters to vote for her, she could show strong in the remainder of those states. Next.

Moe was wrong....imagine that!

 

[Walter Brennaneer]

Un freakin' real. You're going to kill me with this sh*t I swear!

2007 has me fired up this evening. This is pure gold stupidity by the liberal dream team. Not one from that tribe wants to play tonight for some reason. [jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile]

 

[Walter Brennaneer]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

LMAO!

 

[Walter Brennaneer]

OMG... @wvu2007 ...and @Dog Rescueer ...I really needed that belly aching laugh. Now I'll sleep well tonight. Nothing is funnier than retread Leftists in their own words of past posted ignorance.

Too funny guys...thanks for the laughs!

I concur they supply the laughter.

 

[atlkvb]

2007 has me fired up this evening. This is pure gold stupidity by the liberal dream team. Not one from that tribe wants to play tonight for some reason. [jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile]

Leftists have no sense of humor...so when you laugh at them it enrages them!

They get so mad when these threads are revived and we laugh at their abject stupidity. I laugh at how mad they get! [laughing]

 

[CAJUNEER_rivals]

That is pretty funny. The polls were so right in 2012 and so wrong in 2016. And I could never have imagined Trump winning WI, MI, and PA.

 

[BigLickMountee]

I remember when they said that about Mitt. Lol, wish in one hand and sh*t in the other, Trump ain't got a chance. I feel stupid even having to write that.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

add this to the classic **** said.

 

[MichiganHerd]

Wow, I could read this thread every three months or so. LMAO at moe, keyser, cr89, and of course, the biggest loser of all, conservative cooper. Only thing missing in this thread were great insights from boom.