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Satterfield: A Look Inside the Numbers - Turnovers

TampaBaySkers

TampaBaySkers

Senior
Oct 30, 2010
18,392
530
103
A Satterfield coached team averages (mean) 98th ranking in turnovers per game.

Here are 2024 probabilities for a Satterfield coached offense (turnover team rank)

Turnovers per game - Team Rank
98th or worse - 50% probability
63rd - 97th - 34%
28th - 62nd - 13.5%
27th or better - 2.5%

 
N

nostromo78

Redshirt
Oct 29, 2021
995
0
0
Run this again, but instead of using Satts stats over a 5 year span, run it on NU football over the last 20.
 
D

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,883
13,412
78
TampaBaySkers said:
A Satterfield coached team averages (mean) 98th ranking in turnovers per game.

Here are 2024 probabilities for a Satterfield coached offense (turnover team rank)

Turnovers per game - Team Rank
98th or worse - 50% probability
63rd - 97th - 34%
28th - 62nd - 13.5%
27th or better - 2.5%

Click to expand...
Now run Spencer Rattler and Jeff Sims. Rattler was benched at OU because of how many times he turned the ball over.
 
C

c3o

Sophomore
Apr 24, 2018
6,586
133
0
I’ll be very surprised if we make a bowl next year. This program is just flat out bad with many, including myself, living in denial thinking we will be a decent team any time soon
 
D

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,883
13,412
78
c3o said:
I’ll be very surprised if we make a bowl next year. This program is just flat out bad with many, including myself, living in denial thinking we will be a decent team any time soon
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Some of Satterfield’s issue is that he keeps having to start over at QB. Playing in the same system for the same OC is a big deal for a college QB. Sims was a disaster. Haarberg lacks passing game tools. Rattler wasn’t great at OU with outstanding talent around him. He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.
 
TampaBaySkers

TampaBaySkers

Senior
Oct 30, 2010
18,392
530
103
Use whatever excuses you need to make you feel good.. I’m just sharing the statistical probabilities for Satt lead offenses
 
Spectrumalaska

Spectrumalaska

All-Conference
Oct 6, 2012
3,204
1,209
113
dinglefritz said:
Some of Satterfield’s issue is that he keeps having to start over at QB. Playing in the same system for the same OC is a big deal for a college QB. Sims was a disaster. Haarberg lacks passing game tools. Rattler wasn’t great at OU with outstanding talent around him. He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.
Click to expand...
While it was not with Satterfield, we had Amart for 4 years, and it was like a brand new qb every year.

Some just do not have what is necessary regardless the experience in system. In this instance I believe Satterfield is the weak link in the chain of improvement.
 
D

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,883
13,412
78
Spectrumalaska said:
While it was not with Satterfield, we had Amart for 4 years, and it was like a brand new qb every year.

Some just do not have what is necessary regardless the experience in system. In this instance I believe Satterfield is the weak link in the chain of improvement.
Click to expand...
Might be.
 
H

huskerfan1414

Heisman
Oct 25, 2014
12,603
12,740
0
dinglefritz said:
Now run Spencer Rattler and Jeff Sims. Rattler was benched at OU because of how many times he turned the ball over.
Click to expand...
Rattler had less turnovers this year than previously. If I am not mistaken, SC was better overall in turnovers this year than last.
 
D

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,883
13,412
78
TampaBaySkers said:
Both got worse under Satt. Probably not a comparison you want to use.
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New offense for both and MUCH less talent around Rattler at USC. Statistics are wonderful if there aren’t multiple other variables to deal with. Your statistical analysis is not a provable hypothesis.
 
K

king_kong_

Redshirt
Nov 3, 2021
24,413
4
0
dinglefritz said:
He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.
Click to expand...
which narrative?

that satt leads inept, turnover prone offenses?

or that purdy has played college football for 4 years with nary a win to show for it?

I know I know - tons of OCs all of a sudden produce at levels they've never produced at in 10 years and there is a tremendously long list of good QBs who didn't win a single game until their 5th year in school
 
C

c3o

Sophomore
Apr 24, 2018
6,586
133
0
dinglefritz said:
Some of Satterfield’s issue is that he keeps having to start over at QB. Playing in the same system for the same OC is a big deal for a college QB. Sims was a disaster. Haarberg lacks passing game tools. Rattler wasn’t great at OU with outstanding talent around him. He gets another year with Purdy to see if he can change the narrative.
Click to expand...
You either have it or you don’t. And I don’t pay a guy to make excuses
 
K

king_kong_

Redshirt
Nov 3, 2021
24,413
4
0
RedMyMind said:
what was the reason nebraska turned the ball over 34 times in 2013?
Click to expand...
why do you think with regards to 2013?

any working theories you'd like to share about last year?

any ideas why all these turnovers follow satterfield around?

curious to hear your thoughts.
 
TampaBaySkers

TampaBaySkers

Senior
Oct 30, 2010
18,392
530
103
dinglefritz said:
And where did you find those probabilities?
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I used excel to figure out standard deviation based on Satt’s historical data as an OC. Don’t they teach economics/statistics in school anymore, or is school just a place you decide which gender you feel like today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that Satt has a 13% ish chance he can improve us by 100 spots. This would lead to at least two more wins even with our more difficult schedule
 
D

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
51,883
13,412
78
TampaBaySkers said:
I used excel to figure out standard deviation based on Satt’s historical data as an OC. Don’t they teach economics/statistics in school anymore, or is school just a place you decide which gender you feel like today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that Satt has a 13% ish chance he can improve us by 100 spots. This would lead to at least two more wins even with our more difficult schedule
Click to expand...
The problem of course is that your model assumes all other surrounding variables are equal which of course is not true.
 
R

RedMyMind

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2017
12,390
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king_kong_ said:
why do you think with regards to 2013?

any working theories you'd like to share about last year?

any ideas why all these turnovers follow satterfield around?

curious to hear your thoughts.
Click to expand...
Those are good questions worth inspecting. The problem is people like you can't or won't because that would take effort.

Who needs to pay analysts when we have message board people saying to just call the plays that succeed?
 
K

king_kong_

Redshirt
Nov 3, 2021
24,413
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RedMyMind said:
Those are good questions worth inspecting. The problem is people like you can't or won't because that would take effort.

Who needs to pay analysts when we have message board people saying to just call the plays that succeed?
Click to expand...
then why doesn't an intelligent person like you do it?
 
R

RedMyMind

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2017
12,390
1,506
0
king_kong_ said:
then why doesn't an intelligent person like you do it?
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I'm not the one making claims like you every day when you don't have the information or ability to analyze it.

I'm a wait and see approach, the logical approach.
 
K

king_kong_

Redshirt
Nov 3, 2021
24,413
4
0
RedMyMind said:
I'm not the one making claims like you every day when you don't have the information or ability to analyze it.

I'm a wait and see approach, the logical approach.
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every time it rains, I get wet

every time satt calls plays, the team is at the top of the conference turnover standings

you're right. very illogical to draw straight lines. we'll see how they look in 2025.
 
K

king_kong_

Redshirt
Nov 3, 2021
24,413
4
0
TampaBaySkers said:
Yes, unfortunately the model does assume variables such as dumbass play calling will remain
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that's a constant.

the variables are the players the dumbass plays are called for and the opponents the dumbass playcaller is calling them against.

I do find it quite telling that @dinglefritz stood up for satt until his guy got the nod, then he wasn't too fond of the play calling, either.
 
TampaBaySkers

TampaBaySkers

Senior
Oct 30, 2010
18,392
530
103
king_kong_ said:
that's a constant.

the variables are the players the dumbass plays are called for and the opponents the dumbass playcaller is calling them against.

I do find it quite telling that @dinglefritz stood up for satt until his guy got the nod, then he wasn't too fond of the play calling, either.
Click to expand...
Ah yes. Wishful thinking on my part to think Satt’s play calling can change
 
R

RedMyMind

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2017
12,390
1,506
0
king_kong_ said:
every time it rains, I get wet

every time satt calls plays, the team is at the top of the conference turnover standings

you're right. very illogical to draw straight lines. we'll see how they look in 2025.
Click to expand...
Here's something even you can get.

Nebraska has been a turnover machine the past 20 years. What position on the field was responsible for the majority of these turnovers?

This just may help you find the common denominator.
 
W

Walleye 1

All-Conference
Mar 7, 2021
5,073
2,015
113
TampaBaySkers said:
I used excel to figure out standard deviation based on Satt’s historical data as an OC. Don’t they teach economics/statistics in school anymore, or is school just a place you decide which gender you feel like today.

I was actually pleasantly surprised that Satt has a 13% ish chance he can improve us by 100 spots. This would lead to at least two more wins even with our more difficult schedule
Click to expand...
Is that you Scope?
 
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