The Preakness Stakes
- Thread starter PeliniTheCrutch_rivals294365
- Start date
I have a pretty scientific approach to horse racing, I look at the name 1st. In this case "Chaos" struck my eye and then I noticed he's the longest shot in the field... so maybe I need a new method??
You’ve got the right idea but the wrong horse. Red Route One is from the Hunt for Red October, written by Baltimore’s own Tom Clancy and he (I assume he) is running in a race run in Baltimore? 10 years after Clancy’s death! Talk about easy money….it’s all about the script.
Anyone ever go to Horseman's in Omaha? I am not big on betting horses but that place is a blast, especially for live races.
Nice job Pelini!Embarrassing field. Only one horse from the KD shows up.
That's why I said the Preakness is my least favorite race to play in the Triple Crown. 8 horse field, are you kidding me? Mage is even money or less, there looks like only 4 legitimate contenders, the others are a toss. How you make any money in this type of race, unless Mage runs out?
By the way, for 31 straight years (1990-2022) A horse, ANY horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby has been part of the Preakness exacta. The only horse worth playing is Red Route One, and even that's debatable.
And how do you play him with almost no speed in the race?
I’m guessing Baffert’s horse gets bet down to 5/2 and might wire.
I probably won't even play the race. I've only played the Preakness 3 times in the last 10 years. Plenty of other betting opportunities at Pimlico besides the big one. National Treasure hasn't shown he likes much distance, unless of course he gets to walk the dog on the front end.
The Derby winner has tended to go backwards in the Preakness, so Mage on 2 weeks rest could get beaten, plus, he's not a very big horse.
It would be a lot easier to "fix" a race when there is a lot less money on the line. Mage still has to run the race, and in my opinion, if you look at his spacing between races, the question remains - how will he respond to a 14 day running of a race when his entire 4 race career has consisted on 28-35 days between races. This race is only 110 yards shorter than the Derby.
At 8/5 and likely lower, especially in a small 8 horse field, if I wager the race, I'm more inclined to throw a few "interest bucks" on Red Route at double digits. If you do the math, you can play a Red Route/Mage/All trifecta for $ 3.00. How can you go wrong on that? You can go ALL/Red Route/Mage for $ 3.00. And if Mage wins, big deal, you're out $ 6.00, but at least you have a betting interest as opposed to just watching a race.
Its a **** race to bet, I probably don't bet 5 races a year with only 8 horses in it, as Pelini says, its about value.
By the sheer lack of interest in the thread, its apparent there is not much excitement being generated for this race.
Now, if Mage wins, then of course there will be a lot of interest in the Belmont and a potential Triple Crown winner. I'm likely to play that race like I mean it. I also know that no horse that hasn't run at least a 4 hasn't ever won the Belmont.
I do find several interesting points in the PP's of Red Route, otherwise, I would skip the race entirely. His first two races are turf, which is a toss, then in the other races, he's had 2 Grade 2's, 2 Grade 3's and 2 Grade 1 races. Throwing out the "off track" efforts, the horse has been slowly improving each race. So, I don't mind a horse, who might be overmatched, at least taking a tiny crack at an improving 3 year year old colt.
I'm not suggesting anyone bet the horse on anything I've said here. Good luck to anyone who does wager on it though.
For Pelini-- Mage's career pattern is 5-5-3-0. So he moved up 3 points with his effort in the Derby.
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I've been there several times with family members who are big into horse racing (I'm not).
Easy, it looks like Perform was supplemented for $150K. He finished 4th to Mage for first start of the year. New high beyer last out in the Tessio over Pimilico track. Back to back wins. Probably in the mid pack. 15-1. Any chance?
As long as Baffert doesn't win, all good! Much different race, but on paper, Mage was the only qualifier for the Derby (top 20 horses). You never know, but hard to bet against him with this weak field.
I'll refer you to Pelini as the originator of this thread. I would assume he and I will have about the same view on this horse. It looks like First Mission will scratch.
This is overall a weak *** field, and a short field as well. For those that like to play percentages, horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and were not in the first 12 horses at the first call are 0-10 in the Preakness. Mage at first call in the Derby was 15th.
This is not a typical Preakness, it should be a Grade 3 race. Anything is possible. I can see, as I assume Pelini can as well, several different scenarios playing out. Its just not a typical Grade 1 race due to the lack of overall quality. The hardest thing to wager on in horseracing is uncertainty, and if you're betting on "uncertainty" you have to do so with the prospect of a decent ROI.
I don't disagree but, overall, this is a horrible field. Don't know if he can win but at least this horse is improving around two turns and they thought enough about him to supplement for $150K. Maybe gets a piece.
Louis, you should bet your opinion, upsets happen everyday in racing.
Perform was making his 5th career start the day Mage debuted and Mage outran him every step of the way.
Also, this horse has run with the juice the last 3 good races, and Saturday there is no juice. But, anything can happen.
Good point about the juice. I don't love this horse but he has improved going two turns. I'm just not betting a 1/2 shot in Mage so just looking for some type of upset or horses to use underneath that might fetch a price.
Louis, you should wager any combination you like. If Mage runs 1st or 2nd there will be no money to be made in the exotics. If Mage turns in an absolute clunker, there's lots of dough to be made. He is just a superior animal to anyone in here if he runs a B- race he still wins.
If Mage does win, he will be a huge bet against in the Belmont.
Yep, and I'm perfectly fine sitting this one out and rooting for him to run big(or at least appear to run big).
You know how it is in the Belmont, bunch of new, fresh shooters and with Mage typically coming from far out of it, would make him really vulnerable.
Most real horseplayers, like you and I and others, all pretty much feel the same about Mage winning Saturday.
I just beat Baffert with a 10-3 exacta in the Black Eyed Susan.
**edit** Exacta only paid $ 189.00, but its always worth 1,900.00 to beat Baffert when he's 3/5.
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bummer. I'm playing Altazor at CD tonight based on a really crappy trip last out. Probably a half dozen can beat this horse, but the horse had nowhere to go for 1 1/16th and finished full of run last out at 55/1.
WTF is the story with these early odds?!
Mage at 2-1 would be one of the greatest overlays in the history of the sport. Even if he ends up at 6-5…still great value!
Mage at 2-1 would be one of the greatest overlays in the history of the sport. Even if he ends up at 6-5…still great value!
As bad as horse meat is normally, it would be even worse from a hot exhausted race horse. There wouldn’t be enough A-1 to cover that taste.
LOL. I never play chalk, but I told my son the best value on the board is Mage.
Hi. At the Doniphan Legion as we have the National Veteran Awareness Riders for potluck supper! They going from Sacramento CA. To DC on Memorial Day! I bet at Fonnor, Preakness, 134, 135,137,& 457, 1 exacta box! Short field & good weather! 
Goodluck to all!
Goodluck to all!