There are loads of X factors in the election; mail-in ballots, covid, the legality of ballot boxes, scandals and still more, all of which make the outcome very hard to predict. It's irrelevant how far ahead Biden is in national polling, it only matters how well he's doing in battleground states. But I'm with you, I am so ready for this nightmare to end. The people that say they like his policies but not the man fundamentally don't understand politics. There are big, sudden societal changes, but just as important are the subtle shift in values, attitudes, perceptions and relations.
One example: international relations. Loads of Republicans say they don't care what happens in X part of the world. The sentiment is easy to understand, but it really ignores the role the U.S. plays in the world, and how we have all benefited since WWII. Do you want the U.S. to set the agenda based on our value system, or that of China's? Do you want the U.S. to continue to be a refuge for foreign investment, which makes our country wealthier as a whole, or not? Do you want business relations to be dictated to us, or the other way around?
Republicans mistakenly believe that because Trump insults allies and buddies up to despots he has strengthened our place in the world, just the opposite. We're now more reviled than at any time in modern history, we're more isolated and worse still, investors don't know whether to make heads or tails of our political/business climate. We're a first world superpower acting like a developing nation. This is one of Trump's worst legacies!!! So much for "I don't like him personally, but I like that he's draining the swamp," crap.