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Covid-19 updates and analysis (long)

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Crazyhole

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xrugger said:
However, the length of time of exposure may be a critical factor and what I am hearing, I'm not saying it, but what I am hearing is that her time of exposure is remarkably short.
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Sex jokes are funny when they come at somebody else's expense.

Hehe, I said come.
 
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Crazyhole

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yort2000

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Lockdowns.........the result of a 14 year old's science project.


"But what is this mention of the high-school daughter of 14? Her name is Laura M. Glass, and she recently declined to be interviewed when the Albuquerque Journal did a deep dive of this history.

Laura, with some guidance from her dad, devised a computer simulation that showed how people – family members, co-workers, students in schools, people in social situations – interact. What she discovered was that school kids come in contact with about 140 people a day, more than any other group. Based on that finding, her program showed that in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, 5,000 would be infected during a pandemic if no measures were taken, but only 500 would be infected if the schools were closed.

Laura’s name appears on the foundational paper arguing for lockdowns and forced human separation. That paper is Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza (2006). It set out a model for forced separation and applied it with good results backwards in time to 1957.............

......................In other words, it was a high-school science experiment that eventually became law of the land, and through a circuitous route propelled not by science but politics.

The primary author of this paper was Robert J. Glass, a complex-systems analyst with Sandia National Laboratories. He had no medical training, much less an expertise in immunology or epidemiology."


https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/
 
WHCSC

WHCSC

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yort2000 said:
Lockdowns.........the result of a 14 year old's science project.


"But what is this mention of the high-school daughter of 14? Her name is Laura M. Glass, and she recently declined to be interviewed when the Albuquerque Journal did a deep dive of this history.

Laura, with some guidance from her dad, devised a computer simulation that showed how people – family members, co-workers, students in schools, people in social situations – interact. What she discovered was that school kids come in contact with about 140 people a day, more than any other group. Based on that finding, her program showed that in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, 5,000 would be infected during a pandemic if no measures were taken, but only 500 would be infected if the schools were closed.

Laura’s name appears on the foundational paper arguing for lockdowns and forced human separation. That paper is Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza (2006). It set out a model for forced separation and applied it with good results backwards in time to 1957.............

......................In other words, it was a high-school science experiment that eventually became law of the land, and through a circuitous route propelled not by science but politics.

The primary author of this paper was Robert J. Glass, a complex-systems analyst with Sandia National Laboratories. He had no medical training, much less an expertise in immunology or epidemiology."


https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/
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Was the author of the paper the 14yo's dad? Same last name.
 
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yort2000

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ZaneHickey

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xrugger said:
The news regarding corona virus is coming fast and from a variety of sources. It can be difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff particularly when it is so easy to let one’s political beliefs color the interpretations. I want to present my interpretation of where things stand right now. First, let me give you some credentials and you can judge whether my interpretations are worth your time. I have a long career as a molecular biologist running a biomedical research lab at a medical school. I have more than a passing knowledge of virology, clinical medicine, and drug development. I am part of a grant application that seeks to develop a new therapeutic approach to treat Covid-19 patients. I don’t post often but I’ve been on this board well before it was segregated into a free board and a pay board.

The bottom line is that while we know a remarkable amount about a virus that we were unaware of just a short time ago, there remains more that we don’t know. Much of the molecular nature of the virus we know from studies on the corona virus that caused SARS. The current virus is related enough to that virus that it is officially named CoV-SARS-2. We know that two host, i.e. YOU, proteins, ACE2 and TMPRSS2 are required for viral entry. The viral SPIKE protein binds to the portion of the membrane bound ACE2 that sticks outside of the cell, often a cell that lines the surface of the lung alveoli. TMPRSS2 is a protease that clips the SPIKE protein, a processing step that is required for efficient viral entry. There are therapies being developed that are directed toward interfering with these processes.

Now to address the bigger population-based questions that get at the thorny question of setting policy. Right now, anyone that operates from a political viewpoint first and foremost can find some data or some study that supports their stance. The real answer is that there are problems with what data there are and until a lot more proper testing is done, we won’t be able to make informed decisions. There are arguments over just what the real viral infection rate is in the population. Initial numbers were skewed by the fact that so few tests were available that by and large, only symptomatic people were being tested. In addition, in trying to speed the bottleneck, the CDC broke one of its own rules and there were problems with contamination in the early testing. The central government has waived some of the stringent rules regarding the development and vetting of test kits and this policy is causing a big issue currently in accurately assessing infection rates. The two recent studies from USC and Stanford (which, last I knew, had not been peer reviewed) used a test kit that had been released without FDA approval. The false positive rate of that kit is 1.7%. If one is saying that 2 to 4% of the population is showing evidence of prior infection you can see why a background like that makes those numbers dubious. Other interpretations of that data suggest that it could be ten-fold less. Testing in other countries does suggest that the circulating level of virus is in the double digits. One could use this to argue either side of open up or not. The virus has a lower mortality rate than initially thought due to the population testing bias but this also means it is more infectious than thought. Data will continue to be suspect until enough of the test kits have been properly screened by the FDA and used to evaluate a big enough sample of the population in different states. Nonetheless, I suspect that within a month we will have a reasonably good handle on the frequency of infected people in the population. No estimate I’ve seen gives numbers that approach what is needed for herd immunity. That percentage ranges from more than 60% up to 95% depending on the infectivity of the virus. A highly infectious virus, like measles, is 95%. I suspect CoV-SARS-2 will be toward the upper end of this number and that means the virus will continue to circulate with local hotspots until herd immunity is reached or a vaccine comes online.

This virus is not like influenza. I’ve seen a lot of references to the H1N1 pandemic. Influenza viruses come in a lot of flavors and it is an educated guessing game to make a vaccine that will neutralize the right strains when you have to make decisions a year and more in advance. H1N1 represented a major antigenic shift so that the vaccines for that year were completely ineffective. H1N1 is actually less infectious than the predominant flu strains and older Americans had some immunity from an outbreak that had occurred years before. Younger people had not been exposed to H1 or N1 viruses so the flu hit them harder. Yes, flu kills a lot of people and yes, there has been a substantial effort to make a ‘universal’ flu vaccine. Yes, flu tends to kill those with underlying health problems, especially lung problems but the symptoms of Covid-19 are significantly worse than from flu as evidenced by the length of ICU stays, time on a ventilator, and overall length of hospital stays. The course of Covid-19 is unpredictable, a patient can be seeming to improve and then fall off a cliff. One issue is a cytokine storm that triggers a massive inflammatory response in the lungs which can completely compromise function. This can occur in someone who is otherwise completely healthy but it cannot be predicted, at this point, who will react that way. People exposed to particulates, farmers, some construction and industrial workers, for example, should be particularly careful since they may have a high baseline of inflammation or compromise of lung function already.

I’ve been following the numbers of cases and deaths closely. While there has been a lot of argument on this board over the accuracy (or lack thereof) of predictions and numbers, there is enough of a trend that won’t make either open uppers or stay at homers happy. Both mortality and total cases for the US overall have continued at a pretty constant rate for a while now. In places the curve has begun to drop a bit but that is counterbalanced by places where numbers are increasing more than linearly. Nebraska has fared pretty well so far thanks to a low population density and few tourists bringing it in. There are a couple of worrying developments of hot spots e.g. Grand Island with the potential to cause problems for local hospitals. The difficulties faced by rural hospitals even without Covid-19 is a huge issue of national concern. Take home message: no peak but a steady ongoing course of infections and deaths averaged over the nation.

Have stay at home orders worked? To a degree, yes. Two examples: Colorado had early outbreaks thanks to infected people coming into the state to ski. Early on it was number 4 or 5 in Covid-19 cases. Colorado’s governor instituted stay at home orders and closed many businesses. It now ranks 18th in total cases among states. A second example is seen by comparing Kentucky and Tennessee. Kentucky moved sooner with business closings and promoting social distancing and has less than half the number of cases as Tennessee. Now the bad news: as I said above, overall numbers aren’t going down. They have been holding pretty steady. With some notable exceptions, hospitals have not been overrun. I anticipate that the case rate and death rate will hold steady for the next month. That means we will have over 100,000 total Covid-related deaths in the US by June. I hope I’m wrong. (I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken- old joke, couldn’t resist).

Reopening soon is inevitable. I wish it would hold off for another 3 or 4 weeks until we have firmer numbers on infection rates that would inform as to how best to go about a staggered reopening, but I am realistic enough to know that it isn’t going to happen. Wrong decisions will mean an upturn in cases and deaths and could actually wind up shutting down some industries more than helping them back on their feet. I am eager to get back to work. My colleagues and I are working on developing a very promising cancer drug and progress is currently at a standstill as we cannot go to the lab for anything but essential maintenance. However, I am going to be smart about it for some time yet. I will work at home insofar as possible. I am not going to travel, I am not going to go to restaurants, not even a damn microbrewery, I am going to continue wearing a mask when out in public. How you approach it is up to you. Just realize protection is for others even more so than yourself. If you are out in public in places that everyone has to use, like the grocery store and gas station, please wear a mask and gloves. You can make decisions for yourself to go to the gym or tattoo parlor but, when in places everyone has to use, if you choose not to use protection, you may be making a life or death decision on someone else. It is not an infringement of your liberties any more than not being allowed to yell, “Fire,” in a crowded theater when there is none is an infringement upon your 1st amendment rights. It is a minor inconvenience for a common courtesy.
On a personal level, I do have a friend who died of Covid-19. I have a relative infected in a nursing home who should have died (multiple severe health problems) but somehow didn't even have symptoms. My daughter is an emergency room physician and is on the front lines.
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The CDC now says the virus does NOT transmit, easily, via surfaces. So there's that...
 
D

dinglefritz

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yort2000 said:
Lockdowns


""We are seeing that in places that are opening, we're not seeing this spike in cases," Azar said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed.""


https://www.usnews.com/news/top-new...-in-places-reopening-us-health-secretary-says
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Well you really need to wait a couple of weeks to judge that accurately. That said, some states really never closed down and they seem to be ticking along with pretty flat numbers. We'll see if they escalate as people relax.
 
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CC_Lemming

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xrugger said:
However, the length of time of exposure may be a critical factor and what I am hearing, I'm not saying it, but what I am hearing is that her time of exposure is remarkably short.
Click to expand...

Bravo! I would like this post twice if I could. So good...
 
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litespeedhuskerfan_rivals19671

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litespeedhuskerfan_rivals19671

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Crazyhole said:
It wasn't the best in history, but it was the healthiest it had been for 15 years.
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Add all 3 together and the argument could be made it was the best, but for the sake of conversation let's say you're right, and you could absolutely make a great argument for it, I agree 100%........ with a certain event looming in a few months, something had to be done to disrupt it.
 
C

CheeseRunza_rivals

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May 29, 2001
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yort2000 said:
CDC out with several scenarios based on evidence prior to 4/29/20 for COVID-19.

Best estimate scenario

Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate

0-49 - 0.05%
50-64 - 0.2%
65+ - 1.3%
Overall - 0.4%

Percent of infections that are asymptomatic - 35% bringing the IFR down even lower than the above.


What the hell did we do?


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
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Falls in line with what Dr Fauci published in an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine back in February.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
 
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C

Crazyhole

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litespeedhuskerfan said:
Add all 3 together and the argument could be made it was the best, but for the sake of conversation let's say you're right, and you could absolutely make a great argument for it, I agree 100%........ with a certain event looming in a few months, something had to be done to disrupt it.
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Initially I dont think there was a political motivation but it certainly seems like as time has passed there is now.
 
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Crazyhole

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CheeseRunza said:
Falls in line with what Dr Fauci published in an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine back in February.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
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Sweden has 24 times as many people that have tested positive for antibodies than have tested positive for the virus.
 
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Nebraska_Reality

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Crazyhole said:
Initially I dont think there was a political motivation but it certainly seems like as time has passed there is now.
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That goes both ways.....

Here is the initial graphic the state department of health in Georgia used to "prove" that there was a decrease in cases in the 5-county Atlanta Metro area. And they say that one can't alter time.....

http://www.joeydevilla.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Original-graph.png

The governor, Brian Kemp, has the lowest approval rating of all governors in the US in terms of handling C19.....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/

And, before anyone slams this poll for being from the "evul, librul" WAPO, the poll shows that of the 5 highest and lowest rated governors, 4 of the 5 on both ends of the spectrum are Republicans.
 
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dinglefritz

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Nebraska_Reality said:
That goes both ways.....

Here is the initial graphic the state department of health in Georgia used to "prove" that there was a decrease in cases in the 5-county Atlanta Metro area. And they say that one can't alter time.....

http://www.joeydevilla.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Original-graph.png

The governor, Brian Kemp, has the lowest approval rating of all governors in the US in terms of handling C19.....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/

And, before anyone slams this poll for being from the WAPO, the poll shows that of the 5 highest and lowest rated governors, 4 of the 5 on both ends of the spectrum are Republicans.
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nobody gives a sh## about polling on handling of this Corona virus. Polls depend on who pollsters can reach and how they frame/ask the questions. Polls on this topic are worthless. The non-stop bashing of "open it up" governors by CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC and CBS is despicable and influences public opinion. In my daily life I've talked to exactly ONE person who wasn't in favor of opening things back up and his wife has been basically quarantined for 2 months because she works in a nursing home. She works in one of the very view nursing homes in our 5 state area that hasn't been infected yet with COVID-19,
 
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Nebraska_Reality

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dinglefritz said:
nobody gives a sh## about polling on handling of this Corona virus. Polls depend on who pollsters can reach and how they frame/ask the questions. Polls on this topic are worthless. The non-stop bashing of "open it up" governors by CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC and CBS is despicable and influences public opinion. In my daily life I've talked to exactly ONE person who wasn't in favor of opening things back up and his wife has been basically quarantined for 2 months because she works in a nursing home. She works in one of the very view nursing homes in our 5 state area that hasn't been infected yet with COVID-19,
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I don't know anybody that is favor of keeping things closed up, either. There does seem to be this bull crap of "if you don't favor a complete opening-up of everything, then you can cower in fear". That's BS.
 
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resdog851_rivals159165

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dinglefritz said:
amazingly now Patrick Ewing has the Wuhan Flu. You would think in a city like Washington with all of the preventative measures that he would be safe from contracting the virus.:rolleyes:
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Well he DOES have nostrils three sizes bigger than any adult male should have, so that must be tough to keep all that plague out.
 
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SeaOfRed75

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resdog851 said:
Well he DOES have nostrils three sizes bigger than any adult male should have, so that must be tough to keep all that plague out.
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I always mess up posting gifs here, so could someone please reply with a Chris Tucker from Friday----Damn!!!!!! ?
 
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Nebraska_Reality

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schuele said:
Yeah I felt badly for Kemp. He took a lot of cheap shots for getting out in front of the national guidelines:

President bashes Georgia governor for opening state
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Kemp initially used a graph that showed a downward trend in COVID 19 cases in the 5-county Atlanta metro area. However, the dates were out of order on the x-axis in order to show a decrease. In reality, cases in those counties collectively are at a plateau.

http://www.joeydevilla.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Original-graph.png

That's part of why Kemp was getting a bunch of crap.

The Washington Post did a poll of governor's approval ratings in terms of handling the crisis. Kemp was at the bottom.....and before you slam it for being a biased, liberal poll, 4 of the 5 highest rated governors were Republicans.
 
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schuele

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Nebraska_Reality said:
Kemp initially used a graph that showed a downward trend in COVID 19 cases in the 5-county Atlanta metro area. However, the dates were out of order on the x-axis in order to show a decrease. In reality, cases in those counties collectively are at a plateau.

http://www.joeydevilla.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Original-graph.png

That's part of why Kemp was getting a bunch of crap.

The Washington Post did a poll of governor's approval ratings in terms of handling the crisis. Kemp was at the bottom.....and before you slam it for being a biased, liberal poll, 4 of the 5 highest rated governors were Republicans.
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I should have used the sarcasm font. Did you open the link?
 
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RedMyMind

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Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York with the state forced euthanasia.
 
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dinglefritz

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HBK4life said:
Hmmm...what do all those states have in common? Can't quite put my finger on it?? o_O:rolleyes:
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Interestingly even though testing has ramped up considerably Worldometer still has our total number of new cases continuing to fall. Some news sources shout from the roof tops when there's a one day blip upwards in the daily count, but I never hear a peep out of those braying jackasses about the longer term trends.
 
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NikkiSixx_rivals269993

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ZaneHickey said:
The CDC now says the virus does NOT transmit, easily, via surfaces. So there's that...
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from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

Objects and Surfaces
The virus could spread by touching an object or surface with virus present from an infected person, andthen touching the mouth, nose or eyes.

Surface contamination as observed in the study cited above [source]:

  • Computer mouse (ICU 6/8, 75%; GW 1/5, 20%)
  • Trash cans (ICU 3/5, 60%; GW 0/8)
  • Sickbed handrails (ICU 6/14, 42.9%; GW 0/12)
  • Doorknobs (GW 1/12, 8.3%)
76.5% of all personal items sampled at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) were determined to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 [source]

Of these samples, 81.3% of the miscellaneous personal items were positive by PCR, which included:

  • Exercise equipment
  • Medical equipment (spirometer, pulse oximeter, nasal cannula)
  • PC and iPads
  • Reading glasses

    Other findings:

  • Cellular phones (83.3% positive for viral RNA)
  • Remote controls for in-room TVs (64.7% percent positive)
  • Toilets (81.0% positive)
  • Room surfaces (80.4% of all sampled)
  • Bedside tables and bed rails (75.0%)
  • Window ledges (81.8%)
Duration of contamination on objects and surfaces
Although the virus titer was greatly reduced, viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured for this length of time:

  • Plastic: up to 2-3 days
  • Stainless Steel: up to 2-3 days
  • Cardboard: up to 1 day
  • Copper: up to 4 hours
[source]

Floor
"The rate of positivity was relatively high for floor swab samples (ICU 7/10, 70%; GW 2/13, 15.4%), perhaps because of gravity and air flow causing most virus droplets to float to the ground.

In addition, as medical staff walk around the ward, the virus can be tracked all over the floor, as indicated by the 100% rate of positivity from the floor in the pharmacy, where there were no patients.

Furthermore, half of the samples from the soles of the ICU medical staff shoes tested positive. Therefore, the soles of medical staff shoes might function as carriers. The 3 weak positive results from the floor of dressing room 4 might also arise from these carriers. We highly recommend that persons disinfect shoe soles before walking out of wards containing COVID-19 patients." [source]
 
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ZaneHickey

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Dec 3, 2004
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Nebraska_Reality said:
I don't know anybody that is favor of keeping things closed up, either. There does seem to be this bull crap of "if you don't favor a complete opening-up of everything, then you can cower in fear". That's BS.
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The science behind this has been a dizzying mix of fact and folly. I am really interested in seeing the media's next move, as the "f" word becomes a greater likelihood (fun) with a resumption of sports. As things improve, up pop all the "second wave" stories. Next, I am guessing it will be a combo narrative. The virus is in South America and starting to form an infectious caravan, heading north! The wall won't stop it!!! Probably also a recycling of the computer animation of mushroom-cloud coughs and sneezes... Wife thinks there will be a doubling down on stories of any infected child they can find (either directly or very, very remotely connected to Covid). There should be some sort of betting/gambling available, related to this!
 
D

dinglefritz

Heisman
Jan 14, 2011
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NikkiSixx said:
from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

Objects and Surfaces
The virus could spread by touching an object or surface with virus present from an infected person, andthen touching the mouth, nose or eyes.

Surface contamination as observed in the study cited above [source]:

  • Computer mouse (ICU 6/8, 75%; GW 1/5, 20%)
  • Trash cans (ICU 3/5, 60%; GW 0/8)
  • Sickbed handrails (ICU 6/14, 42.9%; GW 0/12)
  • Doorknobs (GW 1/12, 8.3%)
76.5% of all personal items sampled at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) were determined to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 [source]

Of these samples, 81.3% of the miscellaneous personal items were positive by PCR, which included:

  • Exercise equipment
  • Medical equipment (spirometer, pulse oximeter, nasal cannula)
  • PC and iPads
  • Reading glasses

    Other findings:

  • Cellular phones (83.3% positive for viral RNA)
  • Remote controls for in-room TVs (64.7% percent positive)
  • Toilets (81.0% positive)
  • Room surfaces (80.4% of all sampled)
  • Bedside tables and bed rails (75.0%)
  • Window ledges (81.8%)
Duration of contamination on objects and surfaces
Although the virus titer was greatly reduced, viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured for this length of time:

  • Plastic: up to 2-3 days
  • Stainless Steel: up to 2-3 days
  • Cardboard: up to 1 day
  • Copper: up to 4 hours
[source]

Floor
"The rate of positivity was relatively high for floor swab samples (ICU 7/10, 70%; GW 2/13, 15.4%), perhaps because of gravity and air flow causing most virus droplets to float to the ground.

In addition, as medical staff walk around the ward, the virus can be tracked all over the floor, as indicated by the 100% rate of positivity from the floor in the pharmacy, where there were no patients.

Furthermore, half of the samples from the soles of the ICU medical staff shoes tested positive. Therefore, the soles of medical staff shoes might function as carriers. The 3 weak positive results from the floor of dressing room 4 might also arise from these carriers. We highly recommend that persons disinfect shoe soles before walking out of wards containing COVID-19 patients." [source]
Click to expand...
Let's get something straight. POSITIVE FOR THE VIRUS DOES NOT MEAN THAT VIRUS IT IS INFECTIVE. Dead virus will give you a positive test. How much disinfectant do you think they use in a hospital setting? How much disinfectant is an average American using these days? IF you kill the virus it will still show up on a test. One patient in particular spent over 40 days in quarantine AFTER he was recovered because he kept testing positive in his stool samples. That finally ended when they figured out that he was shedding DEAD viral particles in his stool.
 
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