By force or by choice doesn't really matter. I think we can agree that the endgame of fiat currency is always the same in that its only worth the paper, but at this point in time the demand for the US dollar isn't representative of its volume due to international utility for it. Its a dynamic that has no precedent in history but its a real thing.Clearly stated right away understand what you’re trying to point out - it’s simply by force those dollars are accepted
Commented about dollar being a commodity
Facepalm - Why would I pay people to watch videos if was not trying to help?
http://www.coinhuskers.com/1652-2/
(Money as Debt is one of the videos paid people to watch)
Facepalm - Why would I pay people to watch videos if was not trying to help?
http://www.coinhuskers.com/1652-2/
(Money as Debt is one of the videos paid people to watch)
Fair enough. So kind of a Mises microeconomic position. Makes sense now.Just, study monetary history.
Believe in letting the free market decide whatever form of payment want to accept.
Austrian school of economics - Murray Rothbard founder of anarcho-capitalism
Go to Asia (India, Thailand, Singapore) and see the demand for gold for yourself...
Here’s an example for you that will help:
If you need cooking oil you have to exchange it for gold, if you need soap you have to exchange it for gold. Everything is gold, gold - no Zimbabwe dollars.
With the great demand for dollars as you referenced...
Why are roughly 10%+ of Americans still struggling with poverty?
Fair enough. So kind of a Mises microeconomic position. Makes sense now.
So do you think that the pragmatism of keynes or friedman should be dismissed?
YES! The guy was brilliant and adjusted his positions regularly as he observed things, its just a shame that he died when he did. By the end of his life he was nowhere near what people consider keynesian. Friedman was the natural progression of him in a lot of ways, a blend of observation and prediction that guys like Mises failed at. On the flip side of Mises you have Krugman who is an absolute hack but somehow is respected.The irony is that modern keynesian theory went way further than Keynes would have ever dared.
YES! The guy was brilliant and adjusted his positions regularly as he observed things, its just a shame that he died when he did. By the end of his life he was nowhere near what people consider keynesian. Friedman was the natural progression of him in a lot of ways, a blend of observation and prediction that guys like Mises failed at. On the flip side of Mises you have Krugman who is an absolute hack but somehow is respected.
He is the definition of starting with a conclusion and finding a way to back into it with selective data.Krugman is the definition of a partisan attack dog. He's respected because he says what his political masters tell him to say and he won the Nobel for the same reasons.
He is the definition of starting with a conclusion and finding a way to back into it with selective data.
Yeah, but nearly as eloquently as I did.Isn't that what I said?
Yeah, but nearly as eloquently as I did.
Hmm. Who might this be?Oh go back to york and play with your wires lol
Thanks Crazyhole! Yessir!
Hope this video helps - Donald Trump accepting gold rather than cash as payment
Sadly we all know what is happening to the dollar - the dollar is going down & it is not a pretty picture And it is not being sustained by proper policy & proper thinking. This was opportunity & maybe an opportunity to show people what’s happening with the dollar so that we can do something about it.
Maybe it will set a trend... - Donald Trump
Hmm. Who might this be?
Holy crap dude, I seriously thought you might be dead! Good to know you're still aroundInitials bpn from scout board. We met in person a little over a decade ago. No biggie I just thought it was funny.
So are you still a hard-core Hayek fan? Its been almost 10 years so has your position on things adjusted at all?Initials bpn from scout board. We met in person a little over a decade ago. No biggie I just thought it was funny.
Holy crap dude, I seriously thought you might be dead! Good to know you're still around
Lol, well no wonder this became a fun discussion. We've got Rothbard/Mises, Hayek, and Friedman all arguing economic policy.
For my part, I've grown to greatly appreciate Keynes as an intellectual mind. For better or for worse, some of his positions actually did prove effective for short-term solutions but its amazing to me how much treatise has been bastardized by guys like Krugman. Keynes himself was bearish on using monetary policy and correctly predicted that if we did, the theoretical liquidity trap would be the end. Which by the way we hit on Friday.
Totally agree on 18-36 months worth of deleveraging. I think we have a solid 3 years of deflation and then a slingshot effect in 2023-2024 into hyperinflation. I'm selling off any real estate that I currently have to cash-flow this summer, even if its at a 10% loss, and if the DOW gets back to 28,000 I'm going 30% into an inverse with the rest in cash and silver. IDK if you remember the DOW6000 threads we used to have but its coming, and maybe worse than that. People seriously don't realize that -37 oil was a black swan event yet. I NEVER expected oil to drop below 10, let alone go negative.
Are your parents still farming?
500 oil is a bit of a stretch. If it gets over 200 then it will be traded in basket currencies like the IMF because that would mean a crap ton of dollars have been repatriated. Just like when the DJI dumps an index contributor that is in chaos, the world won't deal in dollars for oil anymore. The Saudis themselves would prevent it from getting that high. Economic relativism could find its way into the commodity markets at 250 oil with the apparent stability in production moving forward.
No, i totally get your rationale and 500 bucks domestically is not out of the realm of possibility. Oil would no longer be traded in a global commodity market anymore though. The US wouldn't be able to sell internationally at that point so it would be a strictly national market. The rest of the world would have already untethered themselves from us and a new trade standard would have to come about. Who knows, maybe OPEC gets their crap together and creates an oil-based currency.That's great in theory. And I agree.
In theory.
Rubber meets the road they're going to panic to get the economy restarted and over print to a level nobody can predict. And that makes that upper number insane by definition and you can't put a number on it.
I admit I pulled 500 out of my *** for shock value, but it has semi valid reasoning.
No, i totally get your rationale and 500 bucks domestically is not out of the realm of possibility. Oil would no longer be traded in a global commodity market anymore though. The US wouldn't be able to sell internationally at that point so it would be a strictly national market. The rest of the world would have already untethered themselves from us and a new trade standard would have to come about. Who knows, maybe OPEC gets their crap together and creates an oil-based currency.
Crash before the election? I see cracks in the housing market for sure, but the ag economy will be bailed out because it really will be in the crapper. I think the real downward spiral doesn't happen until the 1st of the year. We won't see the long term effects of oil until next winter.Yeah there's a lot of issues here. I keep telling people they're going to crash it again before the election because the whales in the market need to rebalance if the dems win and they plan ahead (which was a huge part of the 2008 crash as well... something people like to ignore).
To say this situation is probably going to get out of control is the kindest version imaginable.
Crash before the election? I see cracks in the housing market for sure, but the ag economy will be bailed out because it really will be in the crapper. I think the real downward spiral doesn't happen until the 1st of the year. We won't see the long term effects of oil until next winter.
I dont think it matters who wins. At its core, we have an aggregate demand problem and it doesn't matter how much money they pump into the market, that isn't going to change. Oil and ag are going to exacerbate the supply problem because they can't just start and stop on a whim. Add in the supply chain issues and instead of losing one month of wealth creation we're going to lose 1 years worth. There's already talking about paying farmers and oil producers to not produce next year. That puts us 2 years out at the least before we get back to stasis. I guess on the bright side, when they start sending out those GMI checks people will accelerate paying off consumer debt, thinking they are getting ahead and not realizing that all it did was transfer it into public debt.They might have it under control compared to 2008 but yes.
They've planned for a trump reelection for years. If biden wins, they have to rebalance and it's a violent change.
Given the odds are split reasonably evenly on the winner, there will probably be some turbulence.
I'm wondering why the price of oil even matters, as it's been touted that we have achieved self sufficiency in oil, so why are we not continuing to produce and use it ourselves. Sure it might not mean a dollar a gallon, but I see no reason why we even need to bother with importing oil, at whatever price it is that the cartel sets.I dont think it matters who wins. At its core, we have an aggregate demand problem and it doesn't matter how much money they pump into the market, that isn't going to change. Oil and ag are going to exacerbate the supply problem because they can't just start and stop on a whim. Add in the supply chain issues and instead of losing one month of wealth creation we're going to lose 1 years worth. There's already talking about paying farmers and oil producers to not produce next year. That puts us 2 years out at the least before we get back to stasis. I guess on the bright side, when they start sending out those GMI checks people will accelerate paying off consumer debt, thinking they are getting ahead and not realizing that all it did was transfer it into public debt.
I'm wondering why the price of oil even matters, as it's been touted that we have achieved self sufficiency in oil, so why are we not continuing to produce and use it ourselves. Sure it might not mean a dollar a gallon, but I see no reason why we even need to bother with importing oil, at whatever price it is that the cartel sets.
It's def not an open market, but the ag industry has lived on subsidies for decades, as that is no open market either.
I'm wondering why the price of oil even matters, as it's been touted that we have achieved self sufficiency in oil, so why are we not continuing to produce and use it ourselves. Sure it might not mean a dollar a gallon, but I see no reason why we even need to bother with importing oil, at whatever price it is that the cartel sets.
It's def not an open market, but the ag industry has lived on subsidies for decades, as that is no open market either.
I dont think it matters who wins. At its core, we have an aggregate demand problem and it doesn't matter how much money they pump into the market, that isn't going to change. Oil and ag are going to exacerbate the supply problem because they can't just start and stop on a whim. Add in the supply chain issues and instead of losing one month of wealth creation we're going to lose 1 years worth. There's already talking about paying farmers and oil producers to not produce next year. That puts us 2 years out at the least before we get back to stasis. I guess on the bright side, when they start sending out those GMI checks people will accelerate paying off consumer debt, thinking they are getting ahead and not realizing that all it did was transfer it into public debt.
The crash is coming regardless. Housing first, then the stock market, then ag (after a bailout), then the banks. Its inevitable.It does matter because if one side wins, health care gets hammered and a few others go up. If the other side wins it stays the same. So they have to reposition. Which means sell first. Which en masse means a crash.
The crash is coming regardless. Housing first, then the stock market, then ag (after a bailout), then the banks. Its inevitable.
Some damn fine crystal balls folks own on here.
I have also heard a lot about the possibility of a 'W' type of correction, where we take yet another leg down before heading back up.Oh I agree. But they'll prop it up to an extent and use a crash to extort more and more stimulus. My only real point was that we haven't bottomed yet and September and october will be ugly as the whales reposition.
As far as stocks go, thats probably a good assessment. We're going to see a bump back into the 28k range, 10k in the nasdaq and then a steep downturn into the 6k range. After that, 50-60k isn't out of the realm of possibility just strictly due to a devalued dollar. DOW will reindex sometime next year so the reported number probably won't actually hit 6k, but in reality it will be around that level.I have also heard a lot about the possibility of a 'W' type of correction, where we take yet another leg down before heading back up.
The other side of that coin, is does all the additional QE actually then affect the stock market any more? There were stipulations on not allowing corporate buybacks anymore, so it remains to be seen if stocks actually have a path to go higher, even if based on inflation.
I have also heard a lot about the possibility of a 'W' type of correction, where we take yet another leg down before heading back up.
The other side of that coin, is does all the additional QE actually then affect the stock market any more? There were stipulations on not allowing corporate buybacks anymore, so it remains to be seen if stocks actually have a path to go higher, even if based on inflation.
Gold can't hit 20,000 in actual value. If it gets to 5k that would be catastrophic and it would leave relative status as a currency but that means ALL currencies have collapsed so it really wouldn't mean anything. As bad as our public debt is we have been outpaced by pretty much everyone else, so the dollar remains somewhat stable for a while.Also should add... I'm not disagreeing with crazy... he and I know each other a bit and we generally agree.
The reason he gives different scenarios in this case is I don't want to think about his scenario. If he's right we will be lucky if gold stops at 20000 and oil stops at 500 and food only goes up five times in price. Within about 7 years or so.