How long will this last?
- Thread starter SLOHusker
- Start date
I think people need to be realistic about the effectiveness of the quarantines. 80% of the population will eventually get it, either sooner or later. Those that have pre-existing conditions, are elderly and frail, or have compromised immune systems will eventually be faced with the disease. But people still need to go buy gas, and groceries, and kids need to be able to play with other kids, etc. The disease will transmit no matter what. I do fear what will happen if there are mass layoffs and bankruptcies as well. People lose their health insurance. Depression, alcoholism, crime, all come with joblessness. Students are out of school in mass. There is not only the loss of education time, but these kids are going to be idle and bored after a few weeks. Suburban kids with parents that can stay home vs kids whose parents may still have to show up to work at a low income job (fast food, walmart, etc). There comes a point when we have to ask ourselves which evil is the greater evil if we go into a period of economic and social decline.
Let's also not forget our elected leaders are by and large the oldest in the world. The two democratic candidates for president are approaching 80. Is it wise to have such eldely people in charge of our government. Science (the virus) says no.
I don't believe you could safely allow anyone to come and go as they please. I suppose you could allow those people that have tested negative to go outside, but there isn't going to be anything to do anyway, without any businesses open.
But if they were living with someone that tested positive, but hadn't tested positive themselves, you would have to determine what to do if the infected person wasn't sick enough to go to the hospital.
It may come to that.
But, people have their own businesses too, and if the household shows they're clean of the virus, there's no reason to prevent them.
But you're not looking at the bigger picture, people who had it and are now free of it. They immediately carry the antibodies, so, them washing makes then safe as it gets.
Theres going to be hundreds of thousands of people who are like this,or millions, they should be our first line to economic recovery too.
"But people still need to go buy gas, and groceries, and kids need to be able to play with other kids, etc."
The above is patently incorrect. These things are not essential, and DO NOT need to happen in a mandatory quarantine. Gas isn't needed, when everyone is staying in their place of residence. Groceries were already taken care of during the ramp up period prior to the quarantine, and military will fill in the gaps for those that run out of food and supplies. Kids will have to remain at home with their parents, because even though they aren't as susceptible to damage from the virus, they are still carriers. When we know that the most important thing is to make sure these kids don't grow up WITHOUT parents, it will be much easier to keep them quarantined as well.
All we need to look at is what China has done with mandatory quarantining of those that are ill to see that these quarantines ARE impacting the number of transmissions.
If we quarantined everyone for 2-3 weeks, it would eliminate transmissions, and would allow each person to ultimately be classified in 1 of 3 categories..
1) Not infected
2) Carrier, but asymptomatic
3) Carrier, symptomatic
Once one of these categories was determined, then the next steps could be more easily determined. But all would need to stay in their current place of residence, unless a resident/residents needed to go to a healthcare facility.
Believe me, if there is a way to get our economy back up and operating earlier, there are multiple minds that can figure out all the details. Why worry about personal businesses in this scenario? There will be no one to purchase goods and services out and about anyway.
I know there are some holes in my plan that haven't been addressed logistically, but at its basis it is IMO the best foundation to getting through this in the least amount of time, with the least amount of damage to both our population and our economy.
A 3-week stay-cation in essence, with absolutely nothing to do but stay inside and eliminate interactions with other people other than those that you already have contact with.
But again, those who've had it are ready. How long before we break this circle? The virus will survive.
Our best defense is people with antibodies, they have the appropriate armor to fight this thing.
Then, theres however many, that has gotten the virus,beat it down, yet never had symptom one.
So, do we then wait for antibody tests en masse? The virus isn't waiting around, and we are smart enough to do whats best, but, we shouldn't wait that long either, let the season change, those who've beat it, test those who can get back, maybe continue to test them as more tests become available.
There simply is no on/off switch for for this virus, unless you can ask it to stop, like us, it's here to stay.
Look at koreas approach, who is carrying on, but aggressively testing, and until we can do just that, we will have to wait.
The best thing to come of this is, we are tribal, national,every country on the planet has shattered the one world utopian ideals, as china turned their shipments around mid sail,and sent our purchased goods through contract,back home. As each country has closed their birders, where people thought it was good to have other peoples do what we ourselves should do, and in my ideal of this, this includes the liberties of choice within reason, no totalitarian actions, and only applied to those who won't contribute to the common good.
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But there IS an on/off switch to this virus. If you keep everyone at home, it will either force the virus to show itself, or show that a person is either a carrier or non-carrier. If a person is a carrier, but asymptomatic or minimal symptoms, the symptomatic carriers will be unable to transmit it within 2-3 weeks, and the non-carrier will remain uninfected if they stay at home too.
If there is a way to allow non-carriers to carry on in public, while teasing out asymptomatic carriers and those that are symptomatic, but still eliminate any transmissions, hey I'm onboard. Just not sure exactly how to go about it right now. It could be a logistical nightmare.
Years from now people will read about the economic collapse of 2020. Somewhere someone will mention it killed less people than the flu. This reminds me of the pure panic over gas on 9/11. 5 days later I felt like an idiot for sitting in line for an hour for gas. Lock down nursing homes and recommend vulnerable people stay home. We're going to wreck our economy for years. Not to mention saddling future generations with an even greater debt. If you want to stay home then stay home. Leave the rest of us alone.
There are a few former and current regimes that’d love to have a good little soldier like you on their side.
Think about what you are saying, sheep. Kill people who dare leave their homes? In the name of what you think might be the greater good?
This is some psycho sh*t, man. The quarantine has rotted your brain.
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Agreed, but the nightmare of more economic slow death has to be weighed against it,every day.
And, its more like the most successful way, so korea, who is going through it like mowing a lawn.
What pops up later is as small as total quarantine it seems, so an active society with full compliance and massive testing. In the other thread, Abbott labs just got their tests ready to go and ok'd, just 150 thousand to start, but now they can ramp them up.
So koreas testing was ready, ours was setback by cdc misses,we lost that time, then the reagent problems for our current testing has kept us behind, but things are smoothing out, and we're expanding testing on both ends, not just numbers of availability,but also numbers of labs doing it.
Next week, going into the weekend, things should start ramping up on the testing,big time, and hopefully allow for the so korean model
When there are 'tards like you out there that are intent on maintaining their "Liberty" and having no regard for others' health, and intent on playing this your way, we need people on the streets to hold the hand of idiots like you.
I seem to recall you mentioning people rioting, not simply leaving their homes. What is it with you trying to change the story all the time? It's not becoming.
After this, what will prevent China from developing a new virus every year, then sending a plane full of infected people here to shut down our economy?
When will you get it through your quarantine-softened skull that people free to choose what’s best for them and their families can accomplish the same thing without needless deaths due to martial law?
You should be ashamed to call yourself an American.
It's an excellent question.
The thing he didn't take into account was the media hype that allowed this virus to cause the disruption it has.
If this was spreading around the US without the media hype no one would even notice 300 deaths - hell we didn't really "notice" the 22,000 who died from the flu since Sept 2019!
Imagine, China shut down the US and all it cost them was 10,000 Chinese lives or however many they claim it killed there. That's better than they could have ever hoped from any trade war or any other kind of war.
Come on, it’s not some Chinese conspiracy. They shut down their own county, mass quarantines, etc. It has sucked for everyone.
By your logic people should also be allowed to draft dodge, not pay taxes, ignore others in what’s best for themselves. You place yourself over others, you are okay with those actions killing others, overloading our hospitals leading to millions of deaths. People like you have proven that they care about themselves over others as a society. Maybe we should all be a little more human in this time and less worried about borders and identities about where we were born which we had 0 input into. This virus gives 0 F’s about your borders or liberties.
Sometimes we must sacrifice so that others may survive, if you don’t think taking out millions of people from our economy won’t also significantly disrupt the economy I don’t know what to tell you.
This is a special kind of stupid...look at Italy’s numbers with their measures, or Spain’s. Unchecked the US would have millions dead from this, not hundreds or thousands. Comparing a novel virus to one where we have some antibodies from prior similar viruses and vaccines already developed shows profound ignorance or willful denial of simple statistics and math
No, I’m simply saying this is exactly like those examples and people don’t need to be forced by the military to choose to go along with it, precisely because it’s the best thing to do for themselves, their families and their country.
Please do look at Italy. It's obvious you haven't. We'll talk about who's stupid later.
Read up on Italy. It shows this all an incredible over reaction.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-tally-idUSKBN2172VL
60-70% of Italy's deaths are are due to a high chinese population who had been traveling to and from China at the beginning of all of this.
Some 41% of all those who died were aged between 80-89, with the 70-79 age group accounting for a further 35%.
Italy has the oldest population in the world after Japan, with some 23% of people aged over age 65. Medical experts say these demographics could explain why the death toll here is so much higher than anywhere else in the world.
The ISS report, based on a survey of 3,200 of the dead, said men accounted for 70.6% of the deaths and women 29.4%. The median age for the women who died was 82 against 79 for men.
We better be thinking about the answer to this question in the very near short term. This virus isn't even near as bad as it could be and we've destroyed our own economy in response.
After last night's private and super exclusive party for two i'm down to one lousy freaking bottle of wine. WTH am I going to do? Go out in the world and risk it? Or just appreciate the really great brownies I got in Colorado a few weeks ago? Decisions decisions.
Well you can start by telling us exactly why you're concerned with this virus, but not others and not other diseases. 650K a year die in the US from heart disease every year, but apparently you're ok with that. 50k die from pneumonia, that's ok. 22K die from the flu since Sept 2019. Apparently thats ok.
But the Kung Flu China Virus? Shut the world down!!!!
Next you can tell us how you think millions are going to die. I'm sure you'll show us some poor math skills. Try to avoid your apparent pitfall of extrapolating tests to the entire population.
Can't wait for you to show us how we're a special kind of stupid.
#1, you’re a racist piece of trash. #2, I spent nearly 13 years working in hospitals and medical based field, delivering solutions to support those who are fighting those things. I’m currently working on pandemic planning and response to ensure millions of Americans keep their lights on. My wife has spent almost 2 decades in the medical field working on population health and disease.
So to address your sad little argument that I don’t care about the others, I do and have. Unlike you, I am capable of caring about more than one thing at a time. The simulations and projections are out there to see on the numbers. Plot the curve of infections and deaths in Excel, or trust the scientists and statisticians that have made the models that are driving the government’s decisions. Our current administration doesn’t give damn about the media, but somehow their policies are now dictated by the media?
Tell us your background.
Its the wuhan virus, as anything else is breaking conventions established centuries ago.
Anyone adding to this is paranoid, or have other motives, both accusatory.
You claim to be so accomplished and experienced but you write this drivel. You claim to work in the pandemic field but can't answer anything from my original post. We know what pile you go in.
I'm not even going to respond further to someone who twists what I say and then play the race card.
Go plot your curves. We know you won't think critically or dive deeper into the numbers.
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In the US? Over what time frame?
I believe it's unlikely we see that globally this year.
Book mark this and lets come back to it in 6 months and a year.
I for one hope social distancing stays. I don't ever need anyone else's germs. I notice most people are pretty good about keeping their distance, but unfortunately not all. I was at Costco this week waiting at the end of the belt for the woman with the cashier to finish up before moving forward. While standing there some dingbat woman came right up to me and put one lightweight item behind my purchases. I said to her, "You must be the only person in the world who hasn't heard of social distancing".
I don't think asking people to stay 6 feet from me will damage society. I do think the days of 94000 fans at Memorial Stadium are probably over. Maybe not a bad thing. Reducing the attendance and increasing the area for each seat may have its benefits. (Covid 19 will not be the last virus to cause these disruptions).
US, in first wave.
You're likely correct, as it applies to us, but, going by current numbers, where eventually 40-60% of everyone will be infected,
Season and momentum will kill it off sooner. People who have already gotten it are an immediate firewall, treatments will improve etc.
Things to watch are Italys numbers, to watch for a peak, and So Koreas numbers, and the duration of their rounded curve there.
We are still early, but approaching a bad seasonal scenario for previous viruses of this type, something that hasn't fit into any equations yet. I think being later on, this will have a larger effect on sheer numbers than we've seen.
I shouldn't have said those numbers without further conditions.
According to Dr. Drew, Italy has the greatest population of older people in Europe, too. That is why it has had so many deaths.
It isn't that simple. A fairly high percentage of young healthy people who get this virus end up on ventilators. Even if it's one in 10,000, it's WAY too many. Maybe it's because they have asthma. Maybe it's because they had just gotten over influenza then got this thrown at them. Maybe they are a smoker. You can't just assume that it is only the elderly and we don't have remotely enough ICU beds or ventilators to treat people to use the approach you suggest. I understand and share your concern about the economy but it will be much worse IMO if we overwhelm our healthcare system.
I didn't mean to imply that this coronavirus was a Chinese conspiracy. But rather that it could give them idea about how they could biological warfare in the future to shut down the US economy.
This is a virus where most people don't even have bad symptoms and a tiny percentage will die. Can you imagine if they unleashed a more deadly virus?
Thanks for that. Informative and a realistic approach to assets, and how to use them, or, as you said, young folk need to heed things like anyone else, and if they do get sick, and they do recover, someone of worse health may have to wait, and potentially die, no matter their age.
What's "a fairly high percentage?" And how can you quantify that without knowing the total number who got it?
What's "a fairly high percentage?" And how can you quantify that without knowing the total number who got it?