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Bowl game possibility?

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bmguy88

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Apr 4, 2013
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So what are the chances Nebraska makes a bowl game this year? I’ll start out by stating that the probability is slim, but let’s see what needs to happen this week.

Currently, 71 of the 78 bowl bids are filled.

1) Nebraska needs to win. Period.

2) Lots of 5 win teams need to lose.

5 win team matchups: Loser eliminated
Vanderbilt (5-6) @ Tennessee (5-6)
**Need Vandy to win to eliminate Tenn. 5 win Vandy has better APR than 5 win Nebraska.**
Baylor (5-6) vs Texas Tech (5-6)
Indiana (5-6) vs Purdue (5-6)
3 of the above teams will become bowl eligible, leaving only 4 open bids.

5 win teams with better APR than 5 win Nebraska:
Kansas St (5-6) at #16 Iowa St (6-4)
Minnesota (5-6) at Wisconsin (7-4)
Maryland (5-6) at #14 Penn St (8-3)
If bowls need to pick up 5-7 teams, these 3 will be selected before Nebraska. This leaves only 1 remaining spot!

5 win teams that need to lose:
Wake Forest (5-6) at Duke (7-4)
Coastal Carolina(5-6) at S. Alabama(2-9)
USC (5-6) vs #3 Notre Dame (11-0)
Colorado (5-6) at Cal (6-4)
Tulane (5-6) vs Navy (3-8)
TCU (5-6) vs Oklahoma St (6-5)
FAU (5-6) vs Charlotte (4-9)
Wyoming (5-6) at New Mexico (3-8)
SMU (5-6) at Tulsa (2-9)
Southern Miss (5-6) at UTEP (1-10)
Arizona (5-6) vs Arizona St (6-5)
Florida St (5-6) vs # 13 Florida (8-3)
Miami (OH) (5-6) vs Ball St (4-7)

If all of that happens, than Nebraska would be bowl eligible if the following 4 win teams lose:
Air Force (4-7) vs Colorado St (3-8)
Illinois (4-7) at #22 Northwestern (7-4)
**Both of these teams have a better APR than Nebraska.

Better buy some lottery tickets if this happens.
 
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Husker4real_rivals373787

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Nebraska’s bowl chances are not zero, but as close to zero as you can get.

By that I mean about 20 eligible teams will have to decide to stay home from bowl games in order for Nebraska to make it.

So, not a zero chance; but it might as well be.
 
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Solana Beach Husker

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Aug 7, 2008
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Gawd our APR is really bad...really embarrassing to have so many teams with better football academics...is this MR issue?
 
S

saluno22

All-Conference
Mar 1, 2006
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bmguy88 said:
So what are the chances Nebraska makes a bowl game this year? I’ll start out by stating that the probability is slim, but let’s see what needs to happen this week.

Currently, 71 of the 78 bowl bids are filled.

1) Nebraska needs to win. Period.

2) Lots of 5 win teams need to lose.

5 win team matchups: Loser eliminated
Vanderbilt (5-6) @ Tennessee (5-6)
**Need Vandy to win to eliminate Tenn. 5 win Vandy has better APR than 5 win Nebraska.**
Baylor (5-6) vs Texas Tech (5-6)
Indiana (5-6) vs Purdue (5-6)
3 of the above teams will become bowl eligible, leaving only 4 open bids.

5 win teams with better APR than 5 win Nebraska:
Kansas St (5-6) at #16 Iowa St (6-4)
Minnesota (5-6) at Wisconsin (7-4)
Maryland (5-6) at #14 Penn St (8-3)
If bowls need to pick up 5-7 teams, these 3 will be selected before Nebraska. This leaves only 1 remaining spot!

5 win teams that need to lose:
Wake Forest (5-6) at Duke (7-4)
Coastal Carolina(5-6) at S. Alabama(2-9)
USC (5-6) vs #3 Notre Dame (11-0)
Colorado (5-6) at Cal (6-4)
Tulane (5-6) vs Navy (3-8)
TCU (5-6) vs Oklahoma St (6-5)
FAU (5-6) vs Charlotte (4-9)
Wyoming (5-6) at New Mexico (3-8)
SMU (5-6) at Tulsa (2-9)
Southern Miss (5-6) at UTEP (1-10)
Arizona (5-6) vs Arizona St (6-5)
Florida St (5-6) vs # 13 Florida (8-3)
Miami (OH) (5-6) vs Ball St (4-7)

If all of that happens, than Nebraska would be bowl eligible if the following 4 win teams lose:
Air Force (4-7) vs Colorado St (3-8)
Illinois (4-7) at #22 Northwestern (7-4)
**Both of these teams have a better APR than Nebraska.

Better buy some lottery tickets if this happens.
Click to expand...
Great research, thanks for posting!
 
T

timnsun

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Solana Beach Husker said:
Gawd our APR is really bad...really embarrassing to have so many teams with better football academics...is this MR issue?
Click to expand...
Someone said in another thread that all of the transfers out hurt us big time, because those are recruits who count against us as they won’t graduate here.

Not sure of the validity of that statement, but it seems to make sense. Since we have so many transfers the last 4 years (Bo transition and now MR transition), our graduation rate has taken a huge hit.
 
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saluno22

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timnsun said:
Someone said in another thread that all of the transfers out hurt us big time, because those are recruits who count against us as they won’t graduate here.

Not sure of the validity of that statement, but it seems to make sense. Since we have so many transfers the last 4 years (Bo transition and now MR transition), our graduation rate has taken a huge hit.
Click to expand...
Makes sense, hadn't thought of that.
 
Husker.Wed._rivals

Husker.Wed._rivals

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If I had a choice, and I really mean I could make the call between the toilet bowl and 5 quality recruits from the staff focusing on recruiting in December, I think I would pick the recruits. Even though a bowl would be nice for the team, this season is shot.
 
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bmguy88

Senior
Apr 4, 2013
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1 nu rugby said:
No chance, too many transfer players. So it's an academic thing based on what the radio guys were saying......
Click to expand...

Our APR is what it is, but bowls pick 5 win teams based upon highest APR until all bids are filled.

If, by some act of God, all of the 5 win teams this week **** the bed, Nebraska would be the “4th best” 5 win team based on APR behind Kansas St, Minnesota and Maryland. (Vandy is higher too, but we need them to beat 5-6 Tennessee).

The only way Nebraska gets in is A) Nebraska wins, B) Vandy wins, C) all of the 5 win teams lose(13 teams), and D) Air Force and Illinois lose.

Again, lots of bed shitting.
 
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RaisingArizona

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Mar 30, 2009
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Is it just me or is that rule incredibly unfair for the bowl games and their host cities? Let’s say you’re Boise and the Potato Bowl. You have to choose (for example) Coastal Carolina instead of Nebraska due to graduation rates causing host city and Bowl game millions of dollars. Stupid rule
 
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Cornicator

Cornicator

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Feb 27, 2009
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There is one other factor not mentioned:

A 5 or even a 6 win team could turn down the invite. You're probably asking why would they do that?

1. Injuries
2. Coaching upheaval
3. Too expensive - for instance, Nebraska's travel, lodging, food, and entertainment costs for some pathetic bowl like the Motor City Bowl would be dramatically higher than the payout. A lot of non power 5 programs can't afford that type of loss.
 
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inWV

inWV

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Cornicator said:
There is one other factor not mentioned:

A 5 or even a 6 win team could turn down the invite. You're probably asking why would they do that?

1. Injuries
2. Coaching upheaval
3. Too expensive - for instance, Nebraska's travel, lodging, food, and entertainment costs for some pathetic bowl like the Motor City Bowl would be dramatically higher than the payout. A lot of non power 5 programs can't afford that type of loss.
Click to expand...
So effectively NU would be paying for the extra practices in the unlikely event a bid is offered.
 
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Ewooc

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Solana Beach Husker said:
Gawd our APR is really bad...really embarrassing to have so many teams with better football academics...is this MR issue?
Click to expand...
No it is a Juco and grad transfer issue I believe. Thought I saw an article on this, could be wrong. I think many of the guys Frost brought it didn't have the best academics and it really tanked our avg.
 
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Ewooc

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Cornicator said:
There is one other factor not mentioned:

A 5 or even a 6 win team could turn down the invite. You're probably asking why would they do that?

1. Injuries
2. Coaching upheaval
3. Too expensive - for instance, Nebraska's travel, lodging, food, and entertainment costs for some pathetic bowl like the Motor City Bowl would be dramatically higher than the payout. A lot of non power 5 programs can't afford that type of loss.
Click to expand...
Good point
 
M

mwulf

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Dec 15, 2013
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This is really the best scenario especially if we win Friday...finish the year hot, usher out the senior class and any other non contributors and recruit like crazy in Dec
 
C

Child of the Corn

Junior
Jul 9, 2009
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Cornicator said:
There is one other factor not mentioned:

A 5 or even a 6 win team could turn down the invite. You're probably asking why would they do that?

1. Injuries
2. Coaching upheaval
3. Too expensive - for instance, Nebraska's travel, lodging, food, and entertainment costs for some pathetic bowl like the Motor City Bowl would be dramatically higher than the payout. A lot of non power 5 programs can't afford that type of loss.
Click to expand...
How common is it for teams to turn down invites? Anyone know?
 
Redscarlet

Redscarlet

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Jun 17, 2001
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I’m getting my hopes up because this isn’t going to happen like it did 2015..

This team wants to end it by beating Iowa Friday bottom line..
 
B

bmguy88

Senior
Apr 4, 2013
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First game to watch is tonight; Miami OH vs Ball St. Miami OH is a 16.5 pt favorite. Yikes!
 
E

Ewooc

All-Conference
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bmguy88 said:
First game to watch is tonight; Miami OH vs Ball St. Miami OH is a 16.5 pt favorite. Yikes!
Click to expand...
What sucks for us and the rest of the country is we would be way more entertaining in a bowl than half the teams in one. Also a bigger money maker to whatever bowl we would go too. I would bet 3/4 of the bowls would take us at 5-7 vs taking many of the teams with 7 or 8 wins.
 
Redscarlet

Redscarlet

Heisman
Jun 17, 2001
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husker2612 said:
What sucks for us and the rest of the country is we would be way more entertaining in a bowl than half the teams in one. Also a bigger money maker to whatever bowl we would go too. I would bet 3/4 of the bowls would take us at 5-7 vs taking many of the teams with 7 or 8 wins.
Click to expand...

That is not the way it works.. Admit it we had our chances to win 2 more games and we fell short by our own demise...
 
M

MOHUSKER

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husker2612 said:
No it is a Juco and grad transfer issue I believe. Thought I saw an article on this, could be wrong. I think many of the guys Frost brought it didn't have the best academics and it really tanked our avg.
Click to expand...

Completely incorrect, APR has 2 components, staying eligible and keeping kids in schools, and the window looks back. So kids that left this year won’t matter until next year.

Basically each kid who stays eligible and returns gets 2 points, a kid who leaves, but is still academically eligible counts for one of a possible 2 points, kid stays but is ineligible also gets 1 of 2. Kids who leave and are not eligible are an 0 for 2.

There are also adjustments for kids who transfer to another 4 year school if they had a 2.6+ GPA, if they declared for the draft or if it was a medical/personal waiver.
 
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Ewooc

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scarletred said:
That is not the way it works.. Admit it we had our chances to win 2 more games and we fell short by our own demise...
Click to expand...
I know it isn't. Just saying we would be better and many bowls would rather have us from money and entertainment aspect.
 
B

bmguy88

Senior
Apr 4, 2013
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Well the football gods slammed the door shut before it ever opened. Miami (OH) won 42-21. Nebraska’s bowl game is in 4 days. GBR
 
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