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5.5
I think this MIGHT be a good bet for those who go to Vegas!
5.5
I think this MIGHT be a good bet for those who go to Vegas!
Nebraska "Over/Under" on wins is...
- Thread starter Husker Dreme
- Start date
Is this with Big Scott or Little Scott? (apologies to Da Bears fans) I am going 9 wins. I've thought 9 wins at the start of each of the last 2 seasons. This time I am going to be right.
Akron, Troy, Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa were all bowl teams last season. Nebraska only plays 4 of those teams at home.
Colorado returns a 3rd year starter at QB along with an experienced defense after a rebuilding year.
Minnesota will be in year 2 with Fleck, and is coming off a year when they beat the ever living **** out of the Huskers.
Troy is 21-5 under their current coach, and return a terrific defense.
Illinois is going to suck, but they are returning 38 players in their top 44 of their 2 -deep, and they visit Lincoln sandwiched in between Ohio State and Michigan State.
I will be very surprised if Nebraska wins more than 6 games.
Colorado returns a 3rd year starter at QB along with an experienced defense after a rebuilding year.
Minnesota will be in year 2 with Fleck, and is coming off a year when they beat the ever living **** out of the Huskers.
Troy is 21-5 under their current coach, and return a terrific defense.
Illinois is going to suck, but they are returning 38 players in their top 44 of their 2 -deep, and they visit Lincoln sandwiched in between Ohio State and Michigan State.
I will be very surprised if Nebraska wins more than 6 games.
I've seen the number at 6, which means a 6-6 campaign buys you a push. If you simply look at the projected win totals for our competition, you'll see the swing games.
Akron 4 (should be a win for Huskers)
Colorado 4 (should be a win for Huskers)
Troy 8.5 (looks like a coin toss, even at home)
Michigan 9 (looks like a loss)
Purdue 6 (coin toss)
Wisconsin 10 (looks like a loss)
Northwestern 6 (pivotal game for both teams)
Minnesota 6 (pivotal game for both teams)
Ohio State 10.5 (looks like a loss)
Illinois 3.5 (looks like a win)
Michigan State 9 (looks like a loss... maybe a surprise)
Iowa 7.5 (pivotal game... probably a loss on the road)
This shows 3 "looks like a win" games. 4 coin toss/pivotal games, and the remaining are likely losses... based purely on their projected win totals.
My heart says take Scott Frost for the win, but my head says that I don't have the data that these experts have, so I would steer clear.
Akron 4 (should be a win for Huskers)
Colorado 4 (should be a win for Huskers)
Troy 8.5 (looks like a coin toss, even at home)
Michigan 9 (looks like a loss)
Purdue 6 (coin toss)
Wisconsin 10 (looks like a loss)
Northwestern 6 (pivotal game for both teams)
Minnesota 6 (pivotal game for both teams)
Ohio State 10.5 (looks like a loss)
Illinois 3.5 (looks like a win)
Michigan State 9 (looks like a loss... maybe a surprise)
Iowa 7.5 (pivotal game... probably a loss on the road)
This shows 3 "looks like a win" games. 4 coin toss/pivotal games, and the remaining are likely losses... based purely on their projected win totals.
My heart says take Scott Frost for the win, but my head says that I don't have the data that these experts have, so I would steer clear.
If Troy is a loss, this will be a very long season. Their 11-2 included the upset of LSU, but the remaining schedule was pretty underwhelming.
Troy has a 12 game schedule, meaning the professionals expect them to lose 3 or 4 games. Nebraska is likely one of them, but this Troy team is also talented and they return a lot of starters. They won't be intimidated coming to Lincoln, though I hope Nebraska wins. I'd imagine Nebraska will be favored by 7 - 9 points in that game, but upsets happen (don't we know it.)
This is the best write up on Troy I have seen.
https://www.sbnation.com/2018/2/14/16999068/troy-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster
Essentially they lose their 4 year starter at qb and their top rb and tackle on offense.
They lose half their defense and mostly D line.
But they have a lot of studs returning and have some powerhouse transfers who will start immediately.
Really good article, and it would be a really good win. But we should expect to win.
Should mention four of five O line starters are back, three with conference honors and all backups.
Two of Troy’s last four recruiting classes were not in the top 100 and the other two barely cracked the list. Loads of 2* guys. This is a team that is built to compete in a mid-major.
Any team that wins in Baton Rouge that isn't a Power 5 conference team shouldn't be taken lightly regardless what they've lost the previous year.
So App St as an FCS team, should have always been taken seriously because they won at Michigan? It was an upset. They happen
I get your point, but even those upsets come usually at the hands of a capable team. App State has a pretty consistent program with a good coach and players that fit a system. Just like Troy does.
I think the original poster was suggesting that a team capable of pulling off this kind of upset is different/better than just any non power conference team.
What I see is people “pre-excusing” either a potential loss or a close game 4 months in advance. Troy should never beat LSU at Baton Rouge and if they play that game 20 times they would win the one.
When App St beat Michigan and they were in FCS program. It was the equivalent of Youngstown State coming to Lincoln and beating Nebraska. We can over inflate how good Youngstown State is to justify the loss but it should still never happen.
Nebraska should beat Troy 19 out of 20 times in Lincoln. Prejustifying a close game or potential upset is nothing more than getting aboard the excuse train.
According to some, the ark st game and the N Ill game, last year, were inexcusable. Now, a year later and with better coaching, a similar team is on par with Nebraska and a loss wouldn’t be a surprise? Sounds like Beaten dog syndrome to me.
I don’t buy it. Nebraska was poorly coached, quit and played scared in games last year and should be considerably better in all aspects this year.
No way I’m I pre-excusing a loss, but in this day and age
you never take anyone likely regardless if you can beat them 19 out of 20 times.It only takes that one day like No. Dakota St beating Iowa and I’ll also mention Nebraska excaping Mc Nesse St in 2014 and Ball St in 2007.
The message here is treat every game as important as tOSU, Wisconsin, Michigan or even Iowa.
I wouldn’t judge Troy based on their recruiting. I’m guessing since they’re located in the heart of Alabama they pick up a lot of SEC recruited guys that just didn’t pan out at places like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, etc. I’d be interested to see how many former P5 players are on Troy’s roster.
Disclaimer: I fully expect that we beat Troy and I’ve said 8-4 for a long time to include a victory against Troy, I just don’t think they should be overlooked.
No way I’m I pre-excusing a loss, but in this day and age
It only takes that one day like No. Dakota St beating Iowa and I’ll also mention Nebraska excaping Mc Nesse St in 2014 and Ball St in 2007.
The message here is treat every game as important as tOSU, Wisconsin, Michigan or even Iowa.
Holy crap get off the fence. It’s a thread about predicting total wins. If I am predicting total wins, I am counting Troy as a win. If you want to treat every game as 50/50 great. Just obstain from a thread about predicting wins.
I am not totally following your logic on total wins as a gauge to decide swing games. The missing variable is who else is on the schedule. Not to beat the “Trojan Horse” to death but Troy won 11 last year and they are projected to be 2.5 games worse. Considering their schedule is almost exactly the same (except Nebraska for LSU) I would say Vegas is counting this as a win for Nebraska.
Yell at the others Dad for bringing up Troy in the first place.
The others at least gave a number in their response. Not just a middle of the road, boring statement about Troy upsetting LSU 1 time
Turnovers are always the great equalizer. Yes if both teams play clean, it’s a Nebraska win. But a Hail Mary combined with a couple turnovers and there you have it. I’m not rationalizing a loss. Just seen enough football and know this 4-8 team with a new QB and new linemen (from an already shaky O line) can mean some struggles.
I would bet the house that they will win at least 6 games. You bring up great points but I think the upgrade in coaching is at least worth 2 wins. I am hoping for 8 and 4 but will consider 6 wins a big improvement.
A lot of people, myself included, thought O5.5 was a no brainer...boy those Vegas guys know their stuff.
I'd say 3 is probably likely and maybe only if they play the makeup game. I think they get Illinois at home and split between Northwestern and Purdue. Seems iffy on that last guess, but trying to remain positive. This could be a 2 win team.
Yeah every time I question the wisdom of the oddsmakers I get a painful lesson as to why they do what they do and why I do what I do for a living. Unfortunately the rest of the sports (and non-sporting) betting public may not realize this...hence the opulent surroundings in which these sports bets are usually placed.