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Underclassmen vs. % that go undrafted:

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ajehealth

Sophomore
Mar 4, 2014
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these numbers show it is not a smart move to go to the NFL early if you are not for sure a first round level talent.

Pick Six Previews‏@PickSixPreviews 3m3 minutes ago
113 underclassmen declared early for the 2018 NFL Draft -- a new record Underclassmen vs. % that go undrafted:
2018- 113 (37, 33%)
2017- 96 (22, 23%)
2016- 110 (54, 50%)
2015- 84 (24, 29%)
2014- 102 (39, 39%)
2013- 79 (25, 32%)
2012- 68 (23, 34%)
2011- 56 (14, 25%)
 
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HUSKERFAN66

All-Conference
Dec 8, 2004
21,227
3,573
113
ajehealth said:
these numbers show it is not a smart move to go to the NFL early if you are not for sure a first round level talent.

Pick Six Previews‏@PickSixPreviews 3m3 minutes ago
113 underclassmen declared early for the 2018 NFL Draft -- a new record Underclassmen vs. % that go undrafted:
2018- 113 (37, 33%)
2017- 96 (22, 23%)
2016- 110 (54, 50%)
2015- 84 (24, 29%)
2014- 102 (39, 39%)
2013- 79 (25, 32%)
2012- 68 (23, 34%)
2011- 56 (14, 25%)
Click to expand...
33%? Seems like it is about in line with other years with 3 years out of the last 5 with higher undrafted. I agree that I am not a fan of going early personally unless you are top two rounds.
 
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RedSea_rivals91325

All-Conference
Jun 18, 2001
10,623
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not sure the stats support your conclusion, why would you have to be sure of 1st round? some might even say a 63% shot is pretty good
 
A

ajehealth

Sophomore
Mar 4, 2014
206
148
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RedSea said:
not sure the stats support your conclusion, why would you have to be sure of 1st round? some might even say a 63% shot is pretty good
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More declare, more go undrafted. If our injured DB had redshirted last season and came back this season he likely would have gotten drafted next year. Gates would have gotten drafted if he stayed and gotten better.
 
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RealTucoSalamanca

RealTucoSalamanca

Heisman
Aug 18, 2016
16,645
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ajehealth said:
More declare, more go undrafted. If our injured DB had redshirted last season and came back this season he likely would have gotten drafted next year. Gates would have gotten drafted if he stayed and gotten better.
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And if he is good enough he will find a way on a roster or practice squad and be just fine next year, all the while getting paid.
 
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spinner4_rivals42045

All-Conference
Jan 29, 2003
6,139
1,819
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Tuco Salamanca said:
And if he is good enough he will find a way on a roster or practice squad and be just fine next year, all the while getting paid.
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Not necessarily. He’s physically not strong enough to play in the NFL. It’s not a matter of technique, getting more mature, or even learning the position a little better. It’s about being strong enough to be an NFL lineman. A year under the current staff of learning how to eat right & working out would have made the difference. No NLF team is going to pay a fat slob to work out and shed some massive love handles, grow biceps, and turn man boobs into pecs. I’ve seen nick gates in street clothes in person and know 2 guys personally who played on the O-line in the NFL... Not even close.
 
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schuele

All-American
Apr 17, 2005
21,124
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Depends on the players' situation and position. For example, only a few elite running backs are going to go in the first round, and they know their shelf life in the NFL is especially short. So if your value has peaked as a 3rd or 4th rounder, why not enter the draft? The next year, you will be one model year older with higher mileage.

So I agree that some players leave college too soon, but not going in the first round doesn't mean they made a mistake.
 
RealTucoSalamanca

RealTucoSalamanca

Heisman
Aug 18, 2016
16,645
10,919
113
spinner4 said:
Not necessarily. He’s physically not strong enough to play in the NFL. It’s not a matter of technique, getting more mature, or even learning the position a little better. It’s about being strong enough to be an NFL lineman. A year under the current staff of learning how to eat right & working out would have made the difference. No NLF team is going to pay a fat slob to work out and shed some massive love handles, grow biceps, and turn man boobs into pecs. I’ve seen nick gates in street clothes in person and know 2 guys personally who played on the O-line in the NFL... Not even close.
Click to expand...

Sorry I was talking about Jones
 
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RealTucoSalamanca

RealTucoSalamanca

Heisman
Aug 18, 2016
16,645
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113
But the fact of it all is none of you really personally care all that much about these players. You care only because they are from Nebraska. You want them back because you want your team better next year. Other than that, it means little to nothing to you.
 
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oldjar07

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2009
9,472
2,013
113
Tuco Salamanca said:
But the fact of it all is none of you really personally care all that much about these players. You care only because they are from Nebraska. You want them back because you want your team better next year. Other than that, it means little to nothing to you.
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And?
 
RealTucoSalamanca

RealTucoSalamanca

Heisman
Aug 18, 2016
16,645
10,919
113
oldjar07 said:
And?
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Don't present some false narrative and contrived concern about wanting players back so they make themselves better for the NFL draft. 99% don't care about that, they only care that good players are back to play at Nebraska. Which of course is fine, I just find it a little disingenuous, that some pretend like they care about anything more than what benefits Nebraska.
 
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oldjar07

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2009
9,472
2,013
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Tuco Salamanca said:
Don't present some false narrative and contrived concern about wanting players back so they make themselves better for the NFL draft. 99% don't care about that, they only care that good players are back to play at Nebraska. Which of course is fine, I just find it a little disingenuous, that some pretend like they care about anything more than what benefits Nebraska.
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You must not be around people much. In just about every topic of conversation people will say they care about something they don't to make themselves look better.
 
Cornicator

Cornicator

Hall of Famer
Feb 27, 2009
58,260
202,616
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The real shame in all this is the bad advice given to some of the early entrants. Some kids really hate school and want to leave, but a lot of these undrafted underclassmen are fed a line of bull **** about their overall value.

If an advisor states you are worthy of a late round draft grade, that may illustrate your overall worthiness to an NFL organization. However, teams are still going to draft off of need or perceived best available.

If you're basically the #3 remaining Right guard left in the 6th round, you may only be the #25 best player remaining on the board. Your chances are limited. Some of those teams may not need another linemen, and others may see more value in taking the best available.

The advisers should be more transparent. A kid shouldn't need to be a 1st rounder, but he should definitely be valued among the top 100 to 120 players available.
 
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