MLB draft

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

How do you think this national championship team will stack up in terms of players drafted (and signed)?

year	result	# drafted (and signed)
1985	CWS	7
2013	CWS finals	7
2016	super regional	10
2019	CWS	10
2021	CWS title	?

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[Go Budaw]

How do you think this national championship team will stack up in terms of players drafted (and signed)?

year	result	# drafted (and signed)
1985	CWS	7
2013	CWS finals	7
2016	super regional	10
2019	CWS	10
2021	CWS title	?

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</tbody>

Are those total number of draft picks from each team, or just the number of guys taken in the one draft that immediately follows each season?

The 2021 team is easily going to have a bare minimum of like 12 guys drafted overall, but you have ones like Sims, Clark, Logan Tanner, and maybe Kam James who won’t get taken until 2022.

 

[MSUDC11]

If you are just looking at this year’s draft then it may not be very many guys. Bednar, TA, and Rowdey are the only sure things. Probably will have a few other guys that get drafted and sign but I don’t know that it will be 7 to 10. But if you extend it to next year’s draft then Sims, Tanner, Clark, and James (assuming he comes back) should all be high draft picks.

 

[maroonmania]

You have to factor in as well that this year's draft is only 20 rounds where in years past it was 40 rounds. That will limit how many get drafted.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

MLB? We only have 2 good enough to play for the Ole Miss Rebels.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Only 20 rounds this year so I don’t expect a ton of players drafted. Bednar, Mac, and TA for sure. Good chance Rowdey gets taken, and possibly Stinnett/Preston Johnson/Harding.

Losing Bednar, Jordan, and TA hurts, but we return a ton next season. Six regulars in the lineup and a lot of really good pitchers. By my count we have eight guys coming back that are playing in either the Cape or for Team USA, which is a really high number.

Postseason is unpredictable but I expect us to be at least as good, if not better in the regular season next year.

ETA: Cerantola will get drafted. I’d say there are 5-6 guys taken in the 2021 draft.

 

[Go Budaw]

If you are just looking at this year’s draft then it may not be very many guys. Bednar, TA, and Rowdey are the only sure things. Probably will have a few other guys that get drafted and sign but I don’t know that it will be 7 to 10. But if you extend it to next year’s draft then Sims, Tanner, Clark, and James (assuming he comes back) should all be high draft picks.

Add Christian Macleod and Eric Cerantola to your list of “sure things” for the 2021 draft. Both are Top 250 prospects and 100% will be drafted this year….and there’s about a 99% chance that both will sign this year too.

I’m also not sold that Rowdey is a sure thing. He probably is gone, but if he has a high asking number in a draft that is only 20 rounds, he could conceivably go undrafted in 2021. But I don’t think that’s the case.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Are those total number of draft picks from each team, or just the number of guys taken in the one draft that immediately follows each season?

These numbers are the players that were drafted and signed following that season. So Jonathan Holder, for example, is not included in the 2013 number even though he was on the team.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

You have to factor in as well that this year's draft is only 20 rounds where in years past it was 40 rounds. That will limit how many get drafted.

I didn't realize this year's draft is only 20 rounds. Can someone explain the rationale behind that?

 

[Russ Wheeler]

I didn't realize this year's draft is only 20 rounds. Can someone explain the rationale behind that?

Save money due to the Rona? Where have you been?

Plus they wanted to get rid of the bloat in the MiLB.

 

[BiscuitEater]

I didn't realize this year's draft is only 20 rounds. Can someone explain the rationale behind that?

Major League Baseball has settled on a 20-round draft for the 2021 season, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reports. That outcome has long seemed likely, as it is the minimum number of rounds required in the 2020 agreement between MLB and the MLBPA. While it’s obviously a step up from last year’s five-round event, the 20-round length still clocks in at half the length of the standard 40-round draft.

 

[PineGroveBully]

Bc they have eliminated nearly half the minor league teams since 2019ish. There was a ton of waste because only about 10-20% of minor leaguers have a legit shot of ever making it to the bugs, most are drafted just to give that select number of players someone to play against.

 

[MSUDC11]

Add Christian Macleod and Eric Cerantola to your list of “sure things” for the 2021 draft. Both are Top 250 prospects and 100% will be drafted this year….and there’s about a 99% chance that both will sign this year too.

You're probably right but both guys have had their draft stock slip this season so it's not totally out of the question that they could come back to college. Cerantola put his name in the transfer portal as a safety net so obviously he's doing some contingency planning there. Would be really surprised if he doesn't sign though.

MacLeod could technically come back and still have two more leverage years after this one (he was a third year freshman due to redshirting in '19 and the COVID year in '20). I expect he will probably go ahead and sign, but I think there's a case to be made that he still has something to prove and can boost his stock with another year of college.

 

[Go Budaw]

You're probably right but both guys have had their draft stock slip this season so it's not totally out of the question that they could come back to college. Cerantola put his name in the transfer portal as a safety net so obviously he's doing some contingency planning there. Would be really surprised if he doesn't sign though.

MacLeod could technically come back and still have two more leverage years after this one (he was a third year freshman due to redshirting in '19 and the COVID year in '20). I expect he will probably go ahead and sign, but I think there's a case to be made that he still has something to prove and can boost his stock with another year of college.

I was strictly approaching it from the OP’s question about how many will be drafted off this team. Both will be, for sure, drafted in the 2021 draft. If either somehow comes back, they will 100% be drafted again in 2022. If / when they sign is not so important as it relates to the OP’s question, but I do agree with everything you are saying about their chances.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I have no insight into the conversations taking place or what the thought process is currently from the staff or the player, but MacLeod is interesting to me. At the beginning of the season he was pretty much a 2nd round guy with a the potential to move up the back end of the first with a big season. Not sure how great they are at analyzing the draft, but preseason the D1 guys had him as the #25 college prospect. 5 spots behind Bednar. Fast forward to today and D1 has Bednar at #9 and MacLeod at #126. If MLB teams see it the same way, that probably puts MacLeod back near the rounds 6-8 after adding in high school players. Slot bonus for the middle of the 7th round is $220K. Slot bonus for the middle of the 2nd round is $1.6 million.

If MacLeod has truly fallen that far, it basically happened because he had a post season slump. At the end of the regular season he was toting a 3.14 ERA and had just gone 7 innings against Alabama striking out 10 and walking 1 on the road. He is "only" 21 so it would seem like if he really fell all the way down to round 7 or so, that is the absolute floor for him. With 3 years of eligibility left, I would certainly try to come back and put a full season of consistency together to see if I could get back up in to the top 2 rounds.

It's amazing how much the last 5 weeks of the season changed his draft. If he had caught fire the way Bednar did, where would MacLeod have ended up? Big lefty with a sub 3 era on a CWS title team?

All this may be moot. MLB scouts probably don't get as emotional about a few bad games as us fans (or even the D1 guys.) If an MLB team had a 2nd round grade on him in April, they may try to get him in the 3rd a little below slot value. But if he does fall down past round 6, it would seem like a no brainer to come back for a "sophomore" season.

 

[Dawg1979]

so can Rowdy potentially come back? with the covid year and all? don't they all get basically a free year?

 

[Walter White.sixpack]

I was strictly approaching it from the OP’s question about how many will be drafted off this team.

The OP said drafted (and signed).

 

[Go Budaw]

The OP said drafted (and signed).

Yes, I know. Both of those guys are guaranteed to be drafted and signed. 99% chance that both happen this year. 100% chance that both happen this year or next year. They are draft picks that are on the team.

 

[Go Budaw]

I have no insight into the conversations taking place or what the thought process is currently from the staff or the player, but MacLeod is interesting to me. At the beginning of the season he was pretty much a 2nd round guy with a the potential to move up the back end of the first with a big season. Not sure how great they are at analyzing the draft, but preseason the D1 guys had him as the #25 college prospect. 5 spots behind Bednar. Fast forward to today and D1 has Bednar at #9 and MacLeod at #126. If MLB teams see it the same way, that probably puts MacLeod back near the rounds 6-8 after adding in high school players. Slot bonus for the middle of the 7th round is $220K. Slot bonus for the middle of the 2nd round is $1.6 million.

If MacLeod has truly fallen that far, it basically happened because he had a post season slump. At the end of the regular season he was toting a 3.14 ERA and had just gone 7 innings against Alabama striking out 10 and walking 1 on the road. He is "only" 21 so it would seem like if he really fell all the way down to round 7 or so, that is the absolute floor for him. With 3 years of eligibility left, I would certainly try to come back and put a full season of consistency together to see if I could get back up in to the top 2 rounds.

It's amazing how much the last 5 weeks of the season changed his draft. If he had caught fire the way Bednar did, where would MacLeod have ended up? Big lefty with a sub 3 era on a CWS title team?

All this may be moot. MLB scouts probably don't get as emotional about a few bad games as us fans (or even the D1 guys.) If an MLB team had a 2nd round grade on him in April, they may try to get him in the 3rd a little below slot value. But if he does fall down past round 6, it would seem like a no brainer to come back for a "sophomore" season.

MLB.com has Macleod at #113, and that includes high school players. I’d bet D1’s list includes high school players also in the overall rankings, but if not its egregiously flawed. All in all, there’s not a chance he falls all the way to the 6th. When you account for all the compensatory picks, I’d be shocked if he slips past the 4th. Certainly would not expect him back.

Interestingly enough, Bednar’s stock has also fallen on MLB.com rankings. He was in the low 20’s when we were in Omaha, now sits at #32….in the first round comp pick range.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

so can Rowdy potentially come back? with the covid year and all? don't they all get basically a free year?

He's not coming back.

 

[Go Budaw]

These numbers are the players that were drafted and signed following that season. So Jonathan Holder, for example, is not included in the 2013 number even though he was on the team.

OK. If that’s your judgment, then I’d say we’ll be nowhere close to those other teams. I’d be curious to know why you would choose that way to analyze it. If I told you to name the Top 5 best players (in terms of MLB potential) from this year’s roster, there is a pretty good chance that 4 of the 5 (Clark, Sims, L. Tanner, Kam James) are either not draft eligible at all, or have 3 leverage years left to maximize their peak draft value….which is the case with James. The 5th would be Bednar.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

MLB.com made some tweeks, but they didn't really move their list around since the preseason. Bednar only moved form 36-32The D1 list was updated after the CWS and only includes college players. With that said, I would be shocked if a team had a 2nd or 3rd round grade on MacLeod a few months ago and would let him fall very far based on 5 outings. But again, if he does... He is a guy with a solid season next year could end up in a top 50 or higher slot and that would effectively be a +$1m payday for an extra year of college baseball if he really slides this year. MacLeod is seen as a guy without a dominant pitch. If he could really sharpen up that curveball and get a little more consistent with his FB velo... he could change that narrative. Top 5 rounds, I think he has to go. Past that, their should be some real consideration to coming back.

Bednar should be a top 20 or so pick. MLB.com has only moved Bednar up from 41 to 32 since December. That seems conservative to say the least. The most common place I have seen Bednar go in mock drafts recently is #18 to the Cardinals.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

OK. If that’s your judgment, then I’d say we’ll be nowhere close to those other teams. I’d be curious to know why you would choose that way to analyze it. If I told you to name the Top 5 best players (in terms of MLB potential) from this year’s roster, there is a pretty good chance that 4 of the 5 (Clark, Sims, L. Tanner, Kam James) are either not draft eligible at all, or have 3 leverage years left to maximize their peak draft value….which is the case with James. The 5th would be Bednar.

The way I did it was the simplest/easiest way to compare years without skewing the numbers with players that were drafted multiple times and/or appeared on multiple rosters.

Example 1: Jake Mangum was drafted 3 times as a bulldog. I counted him once (2019).

Example 2: Everyone drafted in 2013 was on the 2012 roster. I counted Chad Girodo (7.2 ip in 2012; 59.2 ip in 2013) to the 2013 number only. Looking at drafted players (any year) on the roster would have 2012 with more draft picks than 2013. Only counting the year they signed seems to provide the most relevant information.

The way I broke it down actually correlates with success. 1985, 2013, 2016, and 2019 are the only years we had 7 or more players drafted (and signed) in over 5 decades of history. Those are also arguably our best teams in history.

 

[fang]

"Cerantola put his name in the transfer portal as a safety net so obviously he's doing some contingency planning there."

This one has been a head scratcher for me. Last year when he pitched, he looked like he was going to be a world beater. Then this year it was like he lost the ability to locate. Not being a baseball expert, but with our pitching staff and resources, how does this happen? also how does entering the transfer portal help him?

 

[Dawg1979]

He's not coming back.

not what i'm asking. i don't think he is either. but goes undrafted with just 20 rounds might change a mans mind. esp now that he can get paid to be in starkville

 

[fishwater99]

Should I go Sunday and go nuts when they draft Bednar?

 

[Go Budaw]

The simple fact is that any list that has Macleod as the #126 college player is complete garbage. There’s absolutely no way in hell that there are 125 better college prospects in this draft than he is. I’d say such an error is so egregious that it takes any credibility at all away from the entire list as a whole. MLB.com is obviously gonna have their ear to the ground on actual scout feedback moreso than any other site. I’d trust their rankings over anyone else’s for that reason alone.

Lack of one dominant pitch? Sure. But he can work on that in the minors much more easily / efficiently than he can in another college season, where he’ll essentially get the Cerantola treatment if he can’t figure it out between the ears next year. MLB scouts know that.

 

[Go Budaw]

The way I did it was the simplest/easiest way to compare years without skewing the numbers with players that were drafted multiple times and/or appeared on multiple rosters.

Example 1: Jake Mangum was drafted 3 times as a bulldog. I counted him once (2019).

Example 2: Everyone drafted in 2013 was on the 2012 roster. I counted Chad Girodo (7.2 ip in 2012; 59.2 ip in 2013) to the 2013 number only. Looking at drafted players (any year) on the roster would have 2012 with more draft picks than 2013. Only counting the year they signed seems to provide the most relevant information.

The way I broke it down actually correlates with success. 1985, 2013, 2016, and 2019 are the only years we had 7 or more players drafted (and signed) in over 5 decades of history. Those are also arguably our best teams in history.

Why do you only have to count them once? Why can’t Jake Mangum count as a draft pick on all the teams he played on? I don’t think it’s too difficult to count the year immediately after the season and the two seasons after that. I did it the other day with the number of draft picks from the 1989 team and it was pretty straightforward.

Think about it…if you folliowed the same logic when comparing the 2014 and 2018 football teams and their draft picks, you wouldn’t even be counting Dak as a draft pick on the 2014 team.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Why do you only have to count them once? Why can’t Jake Mangum count as a draft pick on all the teams he played on? I don’t think it’s too difficult to count the year immediately after the season and the two seasons after that. I did it the other day with the number of draft picks from the 1989 team and it was pretty straightforward.

Think about it…if you folliowed the same logic when comparing the 2014 and 2018 football teams and their draft picks, you wouldn’t even be counting Dak as a draft pick on the 2014 team.

Obviously, there is more than one way to look at it. I did it one way and explained why. You can break it down however you want. I think you are missing that you and I may not be trying to glean the same information.

And I didn’t compare the 2014 and 2018 football teams lol

 

[patdog]

The way I broke it down actually correlates with success. 1985, 2013, 2016, and 2019 are the only years we had 7 or more players drafted (and signed) in over 5 decades of history. Those are also arguably our best teams in history.

The 2001 team had 8 players drafted and signed. McMahon had gotten the program back into very good shape before Polk II drove it into the ground. That 2003 team should have been a national seed and challenged for a title. Instead, it lost in a home regional.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

The 2001 team had 8 players drafted and signed. McMahon had gotten the program back into very good shape before Polk II drove it into the ground. That 2003 team should have been a national seed and challenged for a title. Instead, it lost in a home regional.

Who was drafted and signed in 2001 besides Brandon Medders?

 

[Russ Wheeler]

The 2001 team had 8 players drafted and signed. McMahon had gotten the program back into very good shape before Polk II drove it into the ground. That 2003 team should have been a national seed and challenged for a title. Instead, it lost in a home regional.

The evidence against the idea that Polk was a "great coach" is definitely mounting.